It has officially been a week since the Dallas Mavericks won the NBA Draft Lottery and with it, perhaps the greatest golden parachute in sporting history. The rollercoaster that us Mavs’ fans have been on over the past four months has not brought the joyful thrill that amusement rides are meant to bring. It feels like Nico Harrison has played a real-life Game of Thrones character; one tweet adeptly compared him to Littlefinger with the way the camera cut to him during Dallas’ loss in the Play In Tournament, only to comeback and declare “chaos is a mf ladder” in a follow up tweet. If one thing is certain, it is that Harrison has the plot armor that Game of Thrones characters possessed in the final season of the show. He is seemingly unable to, in his own words, fully “bury himself”. After last year’s wildly successful trade deadline, I compared Harrison’s tenure to that of a game of whack-a-mole that he finally seemed to beat. He has had plenty of gaffes during his tenure; not extending Jalen Brunson, signing Grant Williams (while giving up a future first round pick swap rights to do so), signing JaVale McGee and trading for Christian Wood, trading Quentin Grimes and a high second round pick for an injured Caleb Martin, and of course, the indefensible Luka Doncic trade. Yet, just when Harrison seems to make a deal to sink himself, he finds a way to come right back; he replaced Jalen Brunson with Kyrie Irving, got PJ Washington in exchange for Grant Williams, added Daniel Gafford at the deadline (after Kyle Kuzma refused to get traded to the Mavericks, a deal which would have been an unmitigated disaster), and now, preposterously won the lottery with just 1.8% odds. Chaos is a ladder indeed.
The Mavericks have their mulligan for the Luka Doncic trade and if all of the intel remains accurate (which, with Nico Harrison, you truly never know), they will keep the #1 pick and select Cooper Flagg. It is the ultimate reversal of fortune and Dallas now has entire avenues open to them. They have gone from having a bottom-3 outlook in the NBA to arguably a top 5 outlook, given the fact they have a competitive roster that, with Flagg, could seemingly compete for the NBA Finals next season if he truly is as good as advertised off the bat. With all of the options in the world, and suddenly a promising future in tow, how the Mavericks handle the next three months will ultimately define their decade and, indirectly, the disastrous Luka Doncic trade.
The Landscape for Dallas
After four straight months of new rock bottoms being uncovered, Dallas was on top of the sport for a night when their card was revealed for the #1 overall pick. Cooper Flagg is a generational prospect I would consider in the same tier of Luka Doncic / Zion Williamson / Cade Cunningham when they all entered the league (Victor Wembanyama was a slight tier ahead of Doncic). Flagg has garnered comparisons from Kawhi Leonard to Andrei Kirilenko, but the skinny on him is as follows; he’s an ultra-versatile, two-way wing who can do it all, but his best skillset comes on the defensive end. Flagg is a menace as a team/help defender; he is terrific as a weakside rim protector, can jump passing lanes, rebound at a high level against traditional big men, and guard wings 1-on-1. Offensively, Flagg has improved tremendously as a shooter and impressively plays off two feet in the lane. He’s a premier athlete and tenacious competitor who offers one of the highest floors we’ve seen amongst top prospects in a long time; the debate comes over whether or not his individual shot making will grow enough to be the best player in basketball, or merely a perennial All-Star and likely All NBA player (“merely”).
Prior to winning the lottery, Nico Harrison had essentially backed the Mavericks into a corner with two options: either further commit to the Anthony Davis / Kyrie Irving duo, or admit his failure, trade Anthony Davis for draft assets, and embark on a painful rebuild which would last at least 5-10 years at minimum. Surely Harrison wouldn’t have admitted defeat on the Doncic trade so soon (especially given his public defiance plus the Los Angeles Lakers lackluster postseason showing), meaning it was more likely than not that Harrison was going to ship out one of Dallas’ last remaining picks of the decade for a “win now” piece, possibly Kevin Durant. Now? I see four options present for the Mavericks, all of them rather intriguing (outside of Option #4):
Option #1: Slot in Cooper Flagg with the existing roster, trade Daniel Gafford and or PJ Washington for guard help, and plan to compete for a title in the next 2-3 seasons while keeping an eye on the future.
Option #2: Draft Cooper Flagg, consolidate salaries + remaining picks to swing a deal for a star (i.e. LeBron James). Aggressively compete for a championship in the next ~2 seasons, then rebuild around Cooper Flagg in a “post Nico Harrison” era.
Option #3: Trade Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson; draft Cooper Flagg and enter a rebuild with an extremely promising start.
Option #4: Trade the #1 overall pick for a superstar (i.e. Giannis Antetokounmpo) or in a small move down to #2 for a haul of assets from the San Antonio Spurs.
In all actuality? My hunch is that so long as Nico Harrison is in charge of this roster, Dallas is going with Option #1 or Option #2. My personal opinion? Nico Harrison still deserves to be fired and winning the lottery gives Patrick Dumont a perfect opportunity to wipe the slate entirely clean. I’d go for Option #3 but we’ll explore the merits of all below, outside of Option #4 (given the unlikelihood + unappealing nature of the option).
The “Two Timeline Approach” (Options 1 & 2)
The Golden State Warriors have now infamously termed their team building approach over the past 4-5 years as the “two timeline approach”, a strategy where they have aimed to maximize their title contending window of Stephen Curry / Klay Thompson / Draymond Green while building a pipeline of young players. In 2022, it seemed like that plan just might work. The Warriors won their fourth title in seven seasons, Jordan Poole (who as 23 at the time) and Andrew Wiggins were critical cogs in the rotation, and Golden State had yet to fully deploy lottery picks Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody. Now, we all know what happened next, but the Warriors theoretically proved that you can have your cake (winning championships) and eat it too (building for the future).
The intel we have heard from reputable Mavericks’ sources is that Patrick Dumont won’t allow Nico Harrison to entertain any optionality other than drafting Cooper Flagg. Given what Dumont likely learned about sports fandom, I’d bet it’s extremely unlikely the Mavericks trade Dereck Lively II either. By definition, that likely means the Mavericks will be deploying their own “two timeline approach”, where they try to marry their win now ambition with a future core that features Cooper Flagg, Dereck Lively, and… Max Christie?
When viewing Dallas’ plan from the macro lens, an additional trade feels inevitable here. If the Mavericks do indeed draft Flagg, they will have a logjam in their frontcourt and be over the second apron once Flagg signs his rookie contract. There are simply not enough minutes for Flagg, PJ Washington, Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively, and Daniel Gafford, especially when you factor in that Washington and Gafford will both be entering the final year of their contracts. Gafford’s name has already been in trade circles and ironically, the Los Angeles Lakers could really use a big man; Gafford is a seamless fit with the Lakers, although Los Angeles likely has their eyes set on a bigger target (perhaps Nic Claxton?).
What Dallas can do is try to package some combination of Klay Thompson, PJ Washington, and/or Daniel Gafford to balance out their roster for a guard, preferably one who can closer match the timeline of Flagg (18) and Lively (20). Could the Mavericks land Anfernee Simons (soon to be 26) in a three-team deal, where Gafford and Thompson head to the Lakers and Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, and draft assets go to Portland? Perhaps, although Dallas would then be forced to 1) play Simons alongside Kyrie Irving (which would be a defensive nightmare) and 2) be forced to either pay Simons a large contract next summer or risk losing him for nothing. Could the Chicago Bulls be tempted to move on from Coby White? Does Dallas have enough to pry Darius Garland from Cleveland, if they feel compelled to retool their expensive roster that fell short once again in the postseason? Can the Mavericks and Lakers trade again, this time with Dallas getting Austin Reaves?
Ultimately, it’s rather tough to survey the league and cleanly identify a guard target for the Mavericks that can accomplish the following:
- Start next to Kyrie Irving (when he returns from his torn ACL)
- Is under the age of 26
- Can be acquired for some package of PJ Washington / Daniel Gafford / Klay Thompson
One name I didn’t mention who could seemingly fill this role? Collin Sexton of the Utah Jazz. The question becomes does Utah have any interest in Dallas’ assets? I’m not sure they would, but perhaps a three-team deal could work. Sexton is young (26), has shown flashes of being a high-level guard, and could slot into a six-man role once Irving returns (while playing alongside him in spurts).
I have yet to fully dig into more detailed research on options for Dallas, but a quick look around the league makes me skeptical that the Mavericks can truly pull off a meaningful two timeline approach. Remember, the Mavericks do not control any of their draft picks from 2027-2030. While Dallas can seemingly draft Cooper Flagg, trade Daniel Gafford to escape the second apron, and plan to compete for a title through the duration of Davis’ contract (two years plus a player option), the Mavericks would then be faced with an ultimate dilemma. They would have two promising young players in Flagg and Lively, yet both would be too young to seemingly anchor a title contending team. Their roster infrastructure of Davis, Irving, and Klay Thompson would be old and all free agents. Plus, Dallas would not control any of their picks for the next four years. If the Mavericks draft Flagg, trade Gafford, and push ahead, they risk entering a dangerous state of limbo right as Flagg begins to reach a level where you should be a constant playoff presence.
Given that Nico Harrison has shown zero interest in ensuring Dallas’ has a strong future, my fear is that Harrison plows ahead with the “Draft Flagg, Trade Gafford” strategy, or he packages Gafford, Washington, Thompson, and the Lakers ’29 first for LeBron James. That latter move is perhaps somewhat defensible; given that Dallas would aggressively compete for a championship over the next two years with a James / Irving (when healthy) / Davis trio, plus a supporting cast of Lively, Flagg, Naji Marshall, and Max Christie. I wouldn’t be in favor of that trade, but it is one I find at least slightly defensible. That trade wouldn’t resolve Dallas’ second apron issues, but it could place the Mavericks as the proverbial title favorite while keeping Flagg, Lively, and Christie as the building blocks for a young core.
The Rebuild Approach
When laying out the options, to me the obvious best path forward is embracing a rebuild. While Mavericks’ fans deserve to win the lottery, how can they have any faith in Nico Harrison to act in the best interest of the franchise? Winning the lottery does not absolve Harrison of anything related to the Luka Doncic trade; in fact, the outcome of the trade was so bad that it allowed Harrison to trip over himself into 1.8% odds of winning the lottery. Harrison still betrayed the fanbase, he still made an indefensible trade and now reports indicate he might be getting “babysat” by Patrick Dumont. The fanbase will never be able to fully heal until Harrison is fired and starting fresh with Cooper Flagg is the perfect opportunity to turn a new leaf. Another consideration is Harrison’s gross mismanagement of the training staff, a transformation that started from his inexplicable firing of Casey Smith (who is now with the New York Knicks, the team that lost the fewest games to injury this year). Do you really want Harrison in charge of a training staff that jeopardized player health just six months ago? Unnecessarily risking the health of all players and the futures of Lively and Flagg is inexcusable, and another reason Harrison should be told to take a hike by Dumont.
While there are a litany of reasons for why Harrison should be fired, the one that is independent from emotion is that Harrison has no interest in a rebuild, yet Dallas’ best option is to rebuild around Flagg and Lively. I plan a more thorough deep dive later this summer on the Mavericks, so I’ll leave the reasoning to some high-level bullets and explanations for now:
The Second Apron Changes Everything: When Harrison opted to trade Luka Doncic in February, one of the inferred reasons was that Harrison did not want to pay Doncic the supermax this summer for fear of his body breaking down and second apron implications. The second apron, however, remains a reality for the Mavericks. Dallas will be a second apron team once Flagg signs his rookie contract and given the harsh penalties, the Mavericks will obviously work to get below that mark. As outlined above, it’s hard to identify a trade that simultaneously saves Dallas money and nets them a quality guard who can play alongside Kyrie Irving and better fits their youth timeline. The second apron dilemma can entirely change if the Mavericks opt for a rebuild around Flagg; then, they can make deals with the goal to save money and accumulate draft assets, allowing them to dip under the second apron while beefing up their war chest.
Anthony Davis’ Trade Value Will Never be Higher: It can be easy to forget that Anthony Davis remains a top-10 player in the NBA. Davis remains in his prime and has two guaranteed years remaining on his contract; for the remainder of his career, his trade value will never be higher. Nico Harrison will clearly not trade Davis and embarrassingly admit defeat in the Doncic trade, although that is the right option. We have seen two big lineups come back in style (as Harrison pointed out when discussing the Doncic trade back in February), and Davis’ elite defensive skill would be in high demand. Could the Houston Rockets pursue Davis to pair with Alperen Sengun should they not acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo? Could the loser of the Minnesota / Oklahoma City series trade for Anthony Davis to replace Julius Randle / Rudy Gobert / Isaiah Hartenstein? Given how wide open the Eastern Conference seems to be next season, could a team such as Atlanta, Toronto, or Detroit get aggressive and trade for Davis? What about the Philadelphia 76ers; surely they would love to get off Paul George’s contract, but would they package the 3rd pick with George to get Davis? Would a wildcard like the Cleveland Cavaliers emerge, where the Mavericks (or a third team) could land Darius Garland and/or Jarrett Allen? I’d bet Davis would have a rather robust market and would allow the Mavericks to quickly accumulate a young core for Flagg to grow with over the next 7+ years.
Dallas’ Last Pick They Own is Next Year in a Loaded Draft Class: This last point is the wild card to me and one that has to be considered. Dallas’ 2027 first is owed to Charlotte and is top 2 protected, their 2029 first is owed to Brooklyn, and their 2028 and 2030 firsts are eligible to be swapped by Oklahoma City and San Antonio. If the Mavericks are serious about building properly around Flagg, they must maximize their 2026 draft selection (and aim to contend in 2027 forward, which is possible given how league ready Flagg is and historical trajectories of #1 picks). Dallas doesn’t need to fully bottom out and tank, but trading Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson, at minimum, would surely help their likelihood of adding another talented 19–22-year-old to partner with Flagg and Lively going forwards.
Just for reference, envision a scenario where the Houston Rockets acquire Anthony Davis. A trade package could look something like this:
The Mavericks would get under the 2nd apron with this trade, can free up ~$52M in additional cap space for next summer with Fred VanVleet’s expiring contract and Jock Landale’s non-guaranteed deal, add a terrific defender in Tari Eason (to form a super intriguing defensive frontcourt of PJ Washington, Eason, Flagg, Lively, and Gafford), a top-10 pick this year, plus other draft assets (namely the 2029 swap rights). Dallas could then keep both Washington and Gafford (and even possibly extend both), could draft a player such as Jeremiah Fears, Kon Kneuppel, Jase Richardson, or Nolan Traroe to add a backcourt anchor to the mix. A trade like this would maximize Dallas’ two year rebuild window (2025 & 2026) with three draft picks (Flagg, #10 pick, and a likely 2026 lottery pick from being a below average team), an additional $52M in cap space and free from the second apron, and a roster built to accentuate Flagg’s strengths going forward. There would also be the question of what happens with Kyrie Irving (could Dallas trade him at the deadline when he’s healthy), Klay Thompson, and even Fred VanVleet’s expiring. Long story short, a Davis trade opens up a wealth of additional avenues and asset accumulation that can maximize Dallas’ two year rebuild window, build a competent core around Flagg, and be ready to compete for a playoff spot and more in 2027 and beyond.
In reality, while the rebuild scenario is fun to dream about, as long as Nico Harrison is in charge the Mavericks will be seeing the Anthony Davis era through. I’ll still have more detailed thoughts on macro strategy later this summer, but the golden parachute received last Monday has changed everything for Dallas. Miraculously, they have a bright future yet again. This time, they cannot afford to play another game of whack-a-mole. The basketball gods are not so forgiving to offer unlimited mulligans. Whatever route Dallas goes next; plug and play Flagg, rebuild, or a dreaded trade for a star has to be the right move, for the next decade of Dallas’ basketball depends on it. A decade many Mavericks’ fans were ready to throw away.
The Chirp 