The Chirp’s Post-NBA Draft Thoughts & Free Agency Rundown

The NBA offseason is always one of the most exciting times of the year. Despite a free agency class that lacks any significant star power outside of Paul George (the next best available player is either Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Klay Thompson), this, in theory, could be a quieter summer. Just when you think that, however, the league still finds a way to deliver. We have already seen two blockbuster trades occur before the free agency bell has been rung; Mikal Bridges was sent across the Brooklyn Bridge to land the New York Knicks the final infinity stone in their mission to reunite the 2016-18 Villanova Wildcats together, and Dejounte Murray was sent to the New Orleans Pelicans in Atlanta’s big move to break up the failed backcourt pairing of Murray and Trae Young. These certainly won’t be the last moves either, as the new punitive measures enacted on luxury tax teams (particularly those over the second apron) should make the trade deadline more active than ever. Players such as Zach LaVine, Trae Young, and Lauri Markkanen have all been floated around on the block and there are too many teams with significant salary cap space for this to be a truly quiet summer.

The first official milestone of the NBA offseason came in Brooklyn with the NBA Draft. Here are some thoughts on our own personal big board and some of the more notable teams:

Rank	Player Name	Position	School / Country
1	Stephon Castle	Guard	UConn
2	Alex Sarr	Big	France
3	Ron Holland	Wing	G League
4	Donovan Clingan	Big	UConn
5	Isaiah Collier	Guard	USC
6	Reed Sheppard	Guard	Kentucky
7	Nikola Topic	Guard	Serbia
8	Cody Williams	Wing	Colorado
9	Rob Dillingham	Guard	Kentucky
10	Devin Carter	Guard	Providence
11	Zaccharie Risacher	Forward	France
12	Tristan da Silva	Forward	Colorado
13	Jared McCain	Guard	Duke
14	Kel’El Ware	Big	Indiana
15	Matas Buzelis	Wing	G League
16	Trey Alexander	Guard	Creighton
17	Dalton Knecht	Wing	Tennessee
18	Ja’Kobe Walter	Guard	Baylor
19	Jonathan Mogbo	Forward	San Francisco
20	Tidjane Salaun	Wing	France
21	Zach Edey	Big	Purdue
22	Yves Missi	Big	Baylor
23	Baylor Scheierman	Wing	Creighton
24	Johnny Furphy	Wing	Kansas
25	DaRon Holmes	Big	Dayton
26	Nikola Djurisic	Guard	Serbia
27	Kyshawn George	Wing	Miami (FL)
28	Jamal Shead	Guard	Houston
29	Dillon Jones	Forward	Weber State
30	Ryan Dunn	Forward	Virginia
31	Tyler Smith	Forward	G League
32	Tyler Kolek	Guard	Marquette
33	Oso Ighodaro	Big	Marquette
34	Terrence Shannon	Guard	Illinois
35	Adem Bona	Big	UCLA
36	Kyle Filipowski	Big	Duke
37	Bub Carrington	Guard	Pitt
38	Jalen Bridges	Wing	Baylor
39	Jaylon Tyson	Wing	California
40	Ajay Mitchell	Guard	UC Santa Barbara
41	Tristen Newton	Guard	UConn
42	Kevin McCullar	Wing	Kansas
43	Reece Beekman	Guard	Virginia
44	Bobi Klintman	Forward	Belgium
45	Justin Edwards	Wing	Kentucky
46	N’Faly Dante	Big	Oregon
47	Pacome Dadiet	Wing	France
48	Jaylen Wells	Wing	Washington State
49	Harrison Ingram	Forward	North Carolina
50	Cam Christie	Wing	Minnesota
51	Cam Spencer	Guard	UConn
52	KJ Simpson	Guard	Colorado
53	Enrique Freeman	Forward	Akron
54	Juan Nunez	Guard	Spain
55	PJ Hall	Forward	Clemson
56	Melvin Ajinca	Wing	France
57	Pelle Larsson	Wing	Arizona
58	Ulrich Chomche	Big	Cameroon
59	Keshad Johnson	Forward	Arizona
60	AJ Johnson	Guard	Australia

Favorite Individual Selections

San Antonio Spurs Selecting Stephon Castle

It’s probably a hot take to see Stephon Castle #1 on a draft board; I’m not sure any major platform has Castle at the top, but he’s my favorite prospect in the draft. The biggest knock on Castle is his inconsistent 3-PT shooting, where he shot just 27% from in his freshman season at Connecticut. However, Castle thrives in so many areas; he’s extremely versatile and beautifully fills a “connector” role, a player archetype which has proven to be invaluable amongst title winning teams over recent years. Castle is a great passer and a willing cutter, he utilizes his strength and athleticism well to get downhill and finish inside, he can handle the ball and make plays off the dribble and is an elite point-of-attack defender. If Castle can develop into even a 33-34% 3-PT shooter on solid volume, I don’t think a Jrue Holiday comparison is far out of line. His fit in San Antonio is pristine as well; Victor Wembanyama’s incredible ability to stretch beyond the arc should allow the Spurs to run creative sets with Castle, whether as a screener for Wembanyama, as a cutter / roamer along the dunker spot (assuming opponents don’t guard Castle with a center), or on ball in the pick-and-roll. I think Castle has the core traits of a winning player with plenty of untapped potential. This was a home run pick.

Orlando Magic Selecting Tristan da Silva

Tristan da Silva was one of the better value plays in my opinion in the top-20; I had him listed as #12 on my board. Da Silva, to me, has a lot of Nic Batum / Tobias Harris in his game. He’s a strong perimeter shooter (40% from 3-PT range), which should earn him instant minutes as a reserve for a Magic team that ranked 24th in 3-PT% a year ago. However, da Silva should stay on the court because of his versatility and two-way ability, his coveted size (6’8) and his ability to absorb a low usage offensive role. Once again, da Silva has a lot of core qualities we have seen from players who have blossomed into critical role players on teams that either won a championship, or advanced far into the playoffs. Da Silva may lack the physical profile of players such as Aaron Gordon, PJ Washington, Kyle Kuzma, and Andrew Wiggins, but his game has similarities to each of them. His ability to attack closeouts, play in transition, defend at a high-level, and hit standstill 3-PT shots. This isn’t a high upside play for the Magic, but it’s a very quality add in the latter half of the first round.

Utah Jazz Selecting Isaiah Collier

Perhaps I’ll be wrong here, but I currently cannot understand why Isaiah Collier slid all the way to #29 in this draft. I had Collier #5 on my board, in large part due to his pre-college pedigree, terrific physical profile and athleticism, and his raw talent. As recently as December, Collier was considered the frontrunner to be drafted #1 overall. He was injured during his lone season at USC and when he returned, was inconsistent. There are questions with his 3-PT shot (33.8% at USC) and his high turnover rate, but these are common flaws young players struggle with who are thrust into high usage roles. Collier’s individual shot creation and ability to get to the rim is what intrigues me the most. This is a weaker class in terms of high-level upside and I think you could argue Collier has a top-3 ceiling in this class. At his best, he’s a physical, downhill scorer who has playmaking chops of a natural point guard. The shooting is a big swing skill, one could determine whether Collier may need to reimagine his game to better resemble a reserve like Dennis Smith Jr., or whether he becomes an All-Star with some very light similarities to Anthony Edwards. That is a risk I’d gladly take in this class, particularly because Collier showed it before in high school (plus, USC was not a great situation last season). I’m a huge fan with the drafts Danny Ainge and company have had in back-to-back years.

Toronto Raptors Selecting Jonathan Mogbo & Jamal Shead

The Toronto Raptors have had some head scratching moves ever since Kawhi Leonard left in the summer of 2019. They were unable to cash in any notable assets for Kyle Lowry or Fred VanVleet, two core members of their title team. They seemed content to mire in near mediocrity, before finally pulling the plug and trading OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam this past season for a return haul featuring Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, three first-round picks, and Bruce Brown (a player who will surely be flipped for more draft assets prior to February). This draft, however, felt like a step in the right direction. I thought Toronto was an obvious winner, selecting three players I had a first round grade on.

Jonathan Mogbo is an analytics darling and it shouldn’t be a surprise that I’m a fan as well. Mogbo is yet another player who does a lot of things well but struggles in a key area: shooting. Shooting is certainly important, but creative coaches should be able to effectively scheme their offensive systems utilizing non-shooters as hubs for dribble handoffs, screens, or playing out of the short roll, three areas Mogbo thrives. He’s a defensive playmaker, utilizing his plus wingspan (7’2) to create deflections, block shots, and wreak havoc in passing lanes or providing versatility to switch. Mogbo in a small-ball five role has potential, especially as an outlet for when/if Scottie Barnes is trapped. A lineup that features Barnes and Mogbo as a defensive frontcourt should be a nightmare for opponents.

Jamal Shead is a player I absolutely adore. He is the toughest player in the class, a true defensive pest who can press 94 feet and get in the grill of opposing guards. Shead is small (6’1), but he’s tenacious and strong. He’ll never be a 15+ PPG scorer (if he is, he’ll be the obvious steal of the draft), but he has a terrific shot to stick off the bench as a spark plug, defensive-minded guard who can hit threes and initiate some offense. His playing style is not flashy like Jose Alvarado, but I think there is some easy overlap; their infectious defensive energy, passion, peskiness, and ability to playmake while hitting threes. An above average defensive point guard in a 15-20 minute reserve role is a valuable prospect and going #45 in this draft makes Shead a potential steal. I have a hard time envisioning him not sticking at the NBA level for 7+ seasons.

Philadelphia 76ers Selecting Adem Bona

Adem Bona is one of the easiest players to project in this field; he’ll be on the court as a vertical spacer / lob threat offensively, and defensively, will be tasked with protecting the rim. Bona can step out and switch on the perimeter if needed; he’s mobile, has a plus wingspan (7’4) and plays with terrific passion and intensity. Bona’s main flaws are ones that solely hamper his upside but shouldn’t hurt his ability to carve out a 15-20 minute per game role. He’s foul prone (like most young centers are), he’s not a great decision maker on quick passes, and his defensive rebounding is questionable. To me, Bona has a lot of similarities to Daniel Gafford, who we just saw play a massive role for the Dallas Mavericks in their surprise NBA Finals appearance. Perhaps Bona is not as explosive of an athlete as Gafford, but the bare bones skillset, physical profile, and archetype bears a lot of resemblance. These two-way rim centers are, in my opinion, amongst the safest players to select in the 2nd round. All have a clear, obvious role to carve out in the league and if they can develop into a player capable of earning starting-caliber minutes, will likely play a huge role on raising a team’s regular season floor due to their rim protection and interior finishing. Essentially, these are players who limit opponents from shooting the most efficient shots (layups / dunks at the rim) and receive a ton of shots at the rim themselves. That is a major positive.

Least Favorite Individual Selections

Atlanta Hawks Selecting Zaccharie Riscaher at #1 Overall

The Atlanta Hawks could never get Alex Sarr in for a workout, a player many had as #1 on their board and a superior prospect to Zaccharie Risacher. Risacher isn’t a bad prospect, but a lot of his potential is rooted in his 3-PT shot, which was a tale of two seasons. Risacher shot 48.2% from deep over his first 34 games, but that mark dropped a precipitous amount to 29.8% over his final 31 games (previously, Risacher shot 32 percent and, as Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer has pointed out, only made 47% of half court layups and 38% of floaters). I don’t buy Risacher’s comparison to Michael Porter Jr., as I struggle to see how his shooting accuracy and volume can match that of Denver’s forward. Risacher’s average athleticism and measurables to me make it seem more likely his median career scenario is that of around a role player on the wing who can hold his own defensively and do some things beyond standstill shooting on offense. However, if his 3-PT shooting hovers around 32-33%, I struggle to see how that is worth the investment of the #1 pick over Sarr, Donovan Clingan, or Stephon Castle. I think Risacher ironically compares fairly well to Tristan da Silva of this class; maybe he can turn himself into a player similar to PJ Washington or Kyle Kuzma, but that still is not a player I would have taken in the top-5 here, let alone at #1 overall.

Charlotte Hornets Drafting Tidjane Salaun

Tidjane Salaun is an interesting gamble for the Charlotte Hornets; I think this is quite a gamble, which is why I didn’t love the pick as they could have opted for Donovan Clingan, Nikola Topic, or Cody Williams (or, preferably traded down and accumulated more assets while perhaps still taking Salaun). Currently, Salaun’s value comes with his intensity and shooting prowess. He is not a standstill shooter offensively; he has shown the promise to become a player who can hit dribble pull ups or capitalize on over eager closeouts for one dribble threes. His physical profile is tantalizing as well, as Salaun boasts a 7’2 wingspan and has good lateral agility to switch on the perimeter. The questions I have here are regarding Salaun’s track record; he played 17 total minutes for his pro team in France last season (albeit, as a 17-year-old), and his decision-making, on-ball ability, and experience are still lacking. In a weaker class, I don’t think the Hornets taking a swing is the worst thing in the world, although I think there were far better high-upside gambits here. It should be noted as well that the Hornets seemed to have an agreement in place to trade #6 with the Memphis Grizzlies, who had obvious interest in Donovan Clingan. Grabbing extra draft capital and having the possibility to still select Salaun would have been my preferred route here, or simply taking Clingan themselves.

Washington Wizards Selecting Bub Carrington

The Washington Wizards’ rebuild is a fascinating one to monitor. Including last season’s selection of Bilal Coulibaly, they have now compiled a group of players that features Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, and Kyshawn George. All are under 20 years old and very inexperienced and raw. There is quite a bit of potential floating around in Washington and, in my opinion, this team should 100% be looking to move Kyle Kuzma this summer and find a way to bring back Tyus Jones as a critical glue guy to make the life of the aforementioned youngsters easier on the offensive end of the court.

Carrington was a late riser in the pre-draft process, highlighting his shot creation ability as a 6’4 guard who was able to fill the box score with good rebounding and passing marks. Carrington isn’t a true point guard but rather, a combo guard; that being said, Carrington is a killer from mid-range and has demonstrated good touch and creation ability. I wonder, however, how Carrington can develop into a more well-rounded player. His physical profile and athleticism do not pop, he’s a bit of a tweener with his height on the defensive end of the court and struggled to get to the rim and finish over length. Volume scorers have witnessed a significant decrease in their individual value as offense has increased overall around the league; players such as Tyler Herro, RJ Barrett, and Jordan Poole have all faced a variety of questions regarding their winning contributions relative to contract value. Carrington can fit into a six-man role, but given that his likely career trajectory is that of a volume scorer, I worry about his long-term ability to contribute to a winning team in comparison to his expected contract value.

Milwaukee Bucks Selecting AJ Johnson

This, to me, was the biggest head scratcher of the first round. Could AJ Johnson turn out to be the best player in this draft? Quite possibly and the likelihood of that happening probably increased after I said this was the biggest head scratcher. Johnson is an extremely raw player who struggled significantly in his lone season in Australia. His impressive combine showing likely helped his standing, but his on court play did not resemble that of a first-round pick. Johnson is fast, has a plus wingspan (6’9) and, in theory, could be a two-way guard with playmaking chops and intriguing defensive ability. That being said, this is a Bucks team fully in win-now mode with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard and are over the second apron, significantly limiting their ability to make roster upgrades. A variety of players here would have made more sense than Johnson, even if his upside is theoretically higher because of his natural physical gifts. Baylor Scheierman would have been a near perfect fit as a Pat Connaughton replacement with better connective passing, Jonathan Mogbo could have given Milwaukee an intriguing frontcourt pair with Giannis, Johnny Furphy would have provided much-needed 3-PT shooting and wing depth, and either Kyle Filipowski or Adem Bona would have given the Bucks additional frontcourt bulk as league-ready contributors. Maybe Johnson works out, but his immediate impact would likely have been surpassed by one of the aforementioned players and, if his long-term ceiling is hit, it’s likely too late to reap the benefits of it alongside the Antetokounmpo/Lillard pairing.

Favorite Team Draft Hauls

1. Utah Jazz (Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski)
2. Toronto Raptors (Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo, Jamal Shead)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (Jared McCain, Adem Bona, Justin Edwards – UDFA)

HM: Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns

Least Favorite Team Draft Hauls

1. Milwaukee Bucks (AJ Johnson, Tyler Smith)
2. Charlotte Hornets (Tidjane Salaun, KJ Simpson)
3. Atlanta Hawks (Zaccharie Risacher, Nikola Djurisic)

HM: Cleveland Cavaliers

NBA Off-Season: The Main Storylines to Watch

What Will the Philadelphia 76ers Do?

The NBA free agency period runs through Philadelphia, as the 76ers enter the summer with $60M+ in cap space and a team that needs to immediately contend. Joel Embiid is 30 years old and not getting any healthier. Tyrese Maxey established himself as a fantastic #2 option who, at times, can be a #1 option. Nick Nurse is one of the best on court tacticians in the coaching department. Daryl Morey staked much of the franchise’s future on this summer, spurning a long-term contract with James Harden last summer and largely keeping the powder dry for the next two weeks. Simply put, this is the most consequential July in the Joel Embiid era, by far. The pressure was only increased by New York’s acquisition of Mikal Bridges one week prior.

Paul George officially declined his player option, meaning he will enter free agency and is a logical fit in Philadelphia. Honestly, I expect this partnership to happen and there have been whispers of this for months. It is highly suspect that the Los Angeles Clippers seem rather content to let George, a Los Angeles native who Steve Ballmer traded a fortune for, to walk for nothing. Alas, that seems like the reality, unless the Clippers come forth with a max contract in the 11th hour (something that surely would have been offered already). If the 76ers land George on a four-year max, it may lead to some angst in 2027, when George is 37 years old and likely past his athletic prime. However, I’d argue an Embiid, George, Maxey trio is the best in the NBA. I wouldn’t put Philadelphia as favorites to win the NBA Finals over the Boston Celtics, who just put forth one of the most statistically dominant seasons in NBA history. But I would list the 76ers as the 2nd best team in the NBA, assuming they fill out the roster with complementary pieces such as Nicolas Batum, Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre Jr., and more.

Even if the 76ers sign Paul George, they’d still have financial flexibility to do more, along with a decent chest of assets to swing another big trade. The dream in Philadelphia is certainly signing Paul George and subsequently acquiring Lauri Markkanen, a two-step move that would make me feel comfortable to say the 76ers are the team to beat next season. I’d keep an eye on Daryl Morey making a push for complementary pieces such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Klay Thompson and / or Caleb Martin as well.

If Philadelphia doesn’t land Paul George? Well, this is where it could get dangerous for the 76ers. In theory, the worst-case scenario is for Daryl Morey to largely run it back and perhaps sign a few free agents to front-loaded contracts. The 76ers were very, very good with a healthy Embiid last season. Signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Caleb Martin, and Naji Marshall to short-term contracts while retaining Batum, Lowry, Oubre, and De’Anthony Melton likely gets the 76ers to 50 wins (assuming a healthy Embiid). The problem is it significantly limits their title contention upside; Embiid and Maxey as a duo can rival others, but the rest of their roster faces a steep decline compared to Boston, Philadelphia, Denver, and Minnesota. For reference, Caldwell-Pope was the 5th or 6th best player on the championship Nuggets team just two seasons ago. If the 76ers can’t land George, I’d expect Morey to pivot to an all-out pursuit of Jimmy Butler. The situation between Butler and the Miami Heat seems to be getting frosty and his connection to Philadelphia is well known. Frankly, even if the 76ers did sign Paul George, I wouldn’t rule out a possibility for Morey to work some financial magic and attempt a trade for Butler as well. I think Plan A for Philadelphia is Paul George and either Lauri Markkanen or Jimmy Butler, Plan B is George plus a return of the critical role players, and Plan C is overpaying a few two-way wings and try again next summer.

The obvious consequence of the 76ers striking out of the Paul George sweepstakes is there may not be a next summer for them with Joel Embiid. While Embiid has given no indication of unhappiness in Philadelphia, things can change fast in the NBA. The Celtics and Knicks both show signs of staying power. Younger teams such as Orlando and Indiana are likely not going anywhere. The Embiid / Maxey duo is amongst the best in the NBA, but given Embiid’s recurring injury issues and his age, it’s hard to see how the 76ers title window remains open relative to the league if it is just those two at the top of the roster. Morey’s team-building vision in Philadelphia has hinged on this summer for the past 24 months. Walking away relatively empty-handed would be an unmitigated disaster, even if the worst case is returning a 50-win team. The optics would be horrible and, barring an unexpected deep playoff run with that bunch, would likely put his seat on fire, along with the start of an Embiid wandering eye chatter.

How Do the Golden State Warriors Navigate the Summer?

If this past season proved anything, it is that the Golden State Warriors’ title window is closed with this current roster. It felt like the official end of a dynasty with the Warriors bowing out in the Play-In Tournament to the Sacramento Kings, a flawed team who lost their subsequent Play-In game to a team missing its best player. Klay Thompson will hit free agency Sunday and, by all the latest intel, seems destined to leave Golden State. Paul George opting into his contract makes it nearly impossible for the Warriors to acquire him. The Warriors have some moves available, as Chris Paul’s contract guarantee date was pushed back. Andrew Wiggins is an obvious trade candidate. But, this also seems to be a franchise who is interested in cutting payroll and ducking under at least one luxury tax threshold to reset the clock, but also save some money after a near decade run at paying exorbitant tax bills. The Warriors won’t punt a season with Steph Curry and Draymond Green, but it is evident they don’t have the resources to improve their roster to a degree capable to compete with the upper echelon of the Western Conference.

The Warriors, therefore, are slightly more limited in their options than it appears. If they opt for financial savings, it’s likely Chris Paul gets waived. Andrew Wiggins isn’t likely to fetch a major return either after two inconsistent years, ones that have resembled his pre-Warrior days and not the growth he exhibited during their championship season. Surveying the league, it’s hard to find logical landing spots for Wiggins. Would the Warriors accept a Caris LeVert and Georges Niang package for Wiggins, which would give them more salary relief as soon as next summer? Perhaps Wiggins and a protected first round pick could land the Warriors Bruce Brown, but I’m not sure Brown significantly moves the needle. Do the Sacramento Kings think Wiggins is a needle mover compared to Harrison Barnes? All of these seem like reaches, rather than easily connecting the dots; the Bruce Brown deal is perhaps the theoretical one that makes the most sense, and one that makes even more sense if it turns into a three-team trade with Brown returning to Denver, Wiggins, Zeke Nnaji, and picks to Toronto (a protected first from Golden State and two seconds from Denver), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to Golden State via sign-and-trade.

Even so, the above hypothetical seems rather far-fetched. The Warriors may finally avoid harsh luxury tax penalties and the dreaded second apron, but as a result, they’re likely to rely heavily on internal improvement to remain competitive. The trio of Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody is still intriguing, with Kuminga offering the most juice. Trayce Jackson-Davis has proven himself to be a starting-caliber big on a steal of a contract. If the Warriors sign-and-trade Klay Thompson, they could add another rotation piece. It is not fully doom and gloom in The Bay, but the path to contention is hard to see.

As for Klay Thompson, the recent rumor mill seems to indicate there could be a match with the Dallas Mavericks, one which will almost certainly be via sign-and-trade and could net the Warriors Maxi Kleber and/or Josh Green, two versatile players who would quickly plug into Steve Kerr’s rotation. Ironically, I think the Los Angeles Lakers make the most sense for Thompson; if LeBron James takes a pay cut, Thompson can slot either into their full MLE or be attainable via sign-and-trade. Thompson’s dad, Mychal, played for the Lakers and is one of their radio broadcasters. Jarred Vanderbilt or Rui Hachimura could be viable sign-and-trade targets for the Warriors in this scenario.

I do think in the coming year, the Warriors will be an important pivot point for teams to monitor. Steph Curry certainly won’t be going anywhere, but if the Warriors fall short of the postseason again this year, where does Golden State’s front office go? Do they finally trade some combination of their young pieces for the next All-Star that becomes available? Do they trade Draymond Green and double down on their youth timeline, hoping that Kuminga and Podziemski can take enough of a leap to help Curry in his later years? The Warriors have run a similar variation of this roster for the past two seasons and both times, have fallen well short of expectations. They certainly won’t be running the group back again, but given their limited flexibility and meager options on the trade market with Paul George opting out, it seems like their seismic moves will wait until 2025.

Where Do Cap Space Teams Spend Their Money?

This, to me, is a fascinating question. We have already addressed the Philadelphia 76ers, but what about the Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs? As mentioned, this isn’t a class loaded with top of the line free agents outside of Paul George, making this an intriguing bunch.

The Orlando Magic have landed a meeting with Paul George and frankly, he’d be a terrific fit alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. George is still a premier player in the league and would quickly expedite Orlando’s timeline; adding George while losing zero rotation players would elevate the Magic to a likely top-4 team in the Eastern Conference. If the Magic don’t land George (it doesn’t appear they will), Klay Thompson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope both fit perfectly here, as the Magic could use an upgrade over Gary Harris and need additional 3-PT shooting. Some other names for Orlando? Gary Trent Jr., Buddy Hield, Malik Beasley, Luke Kennard, and De’Anthony Melton. Guard depth and perimeter shooting is their main need. If the Magic dip their toe in the trade market, D’Angelo Russell makes a lot of sense here. Russell is an enigma, but at his best, he’s a smooth three-level scorer who remains a strong playmaker. If the Lakers do land Klay Thompson, trading Russell would make a good deal of sense. A sign-and-trade of Harris for Russell, for example, fits for both sides if the Lakers land Thompson.

We have already seen the Detroit Pistons be a team open for business, particularly the business of taking on contracts for draft picks. The Dallas Mavericks sent Tim Hardaway Jr. to Detroit, along with three second round picks, for Quentin Grimes, a move motivated by Dallas’ intent on freeing up the non-taxpayer MLE to offer to Derrick Jones Jr., a key free agent. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pistons found other ways to get involved here as well, as a few teams are hovering near the luxury tax aprons and may be looking for salary dumps. The Pistons could leverage some of their cheaper bench players as return packages for undesirable contracts. Would the Nets look to get off Ben Simmons finally? How about the Los Angeles Clippers and PJ Tucker? Phoenix and Nassir Little? Golden State and Kevon Looney? I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pistons and Clippers made a deal involving PJ Tucker. As for actual free agents, the Pistons are another team in need of shooting (even with Hardaway Jr. on the roster) but could also use a rim protector inside. I really like the idea of Detroit throwing a large offer sheet at Patrick Williams or Isaac Okoro (even if they don’t help with shooting), but names like Gary Trent Jr., Lonnie Walker, and Luke Kennard all make a lot of sense. Another name to keep an eye on? Former Detroit Piston Tobias Harris. Harris fell out of favor in Philadelphia and was clearly overpaid, but he remains a solid player. If Harris wants another sizeable payday, Detroit is likely his best bet. Miles Bridges, who went to Michigan State, fits here as well.

The Utah Jazz are an interesting team to monitor, as Adrian Wojnarowski’s intel seemed to point towards their interest in Mikal Bridges prior to his trade to New York. Now, it feels like there is a chance Lauri Markannen could be traded and for the Jazz to push deeper into a rebuild. I bet the 76ers make a push for Markkanen, but if he stays put, this is a Jazz team that will continue to build for the future. Walker Kessler’s name has popped up in trade rumors; he makes sense as a fit in Detroit, perhaps in a swap with Isaiah Stewart. Kessler could also fit in Milwaukee, Chicago, Memphis, and New Orleans. If the Jazz wanted to get aggressive, they could look to cash in some of their future draft capital for an impact wing. Would the Pelicans consider moving Brandon Ingram to Utah? This is a team that can take a variety of different approaches. For free agent targets, Tobias Harris and Miles Bridges make sense here for a team that needs help on the wing, and I’d keep an eye on Markelle Fultz here. Fultz had some good moments in Orlando and while the Jazz have some intriguing pieces in the backcourt like Collin Sexton and Keyonte George, Fultz would give them a legitimate defensive piece who still offers some untapped potential.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are by the best team of the cap space bunch. They have a terrific young core of MVP runner up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, a plethora of versatile role players (who are all young as well), and a treasure trove of draft picks over the next 5-7 years. If I had to guess, probably 90% of the league at bare minimum would trade positions with Sam Presti. That being said, the Thunder have been agonizingly patient in their team building process. After a 50+ win season that saw them bounced in the second round of the playoffs, you have to wonder how much longer Presti and company can take a methodical approach to evaluating and building this roster. The obvious fit for this team is Isaiah Hartenstein, who would help the Thunder shore up their biggest weakness: rebounding. Sure, Hartenstein would come at the expense of Oklahoma City’s five out offense with a lethal drive and kick game, but we saw how Dallas’ interior presence overwhelmed the Thunder at times. Hartenstein is great in the short roll, has a strong floater, and is an extremely underrated defender. He’d be a home run fit and given New York’s cap sheet, a large offer could land him in Oklahoma. Tobias Harris makes some sense here as well; he’d give the Thunder a veteran forward and bolster their frontcourt size. Lastly, I’d keep an eye on Chris Paul here. Paul was on the Thunder a few years back and has an existing relationship with SGA and the organization. While it seems Paul is destined for Los Angeles, the Thunder could use a backup point guard with experience.

Finally, the San Antonio Spurs seem one year away from making their own aggressive push towards the postseason, behind wunderkind Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio has yet to make a notable move to progress this roster, but that is surely coming. For now, they have a lot of solid pieces; Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Stephon Castle, Jeremy Sochan, and Keldon Johnson are all nice supporting players. San Antonio’s needs are rather obvious: they need an upgrade at point guard, additional perimeter shooting, and some two-way rangier wings. Wembanyama thrived at center later in the season, but San Antonio could stand to find a bulkier complement who can run with backup units and, in a pinch, play alongside Wembanyama. Trae Young is an ideal fit with the Spurs, but it remains to be seen how available he truly is now that Dejounte Murray is gone. If the Cleveland Cavaliers break up their Darius Garland / Donovan Mitchell backcourt, Garland would make a lot of sense in San Antonio. For free agents, Chris Paul is likely going ring chasing, but he’d be an excellent fit here. Personally, I like the idea of adding Tyus Jones (Tre Jones’ brother) and a 3-PT shooter, someone like Luke Kennard or Buddy Hield. The Spurs have time and assets. They don’t need to rush and shrink their title window with Wembanyama, but they should be experimenting with different player styles and fits to see what works best with their French superstar. That’s the goal for this summer and season.

What Moves Do Aspiring Contenders Have Left to Make?

So far, we have seen two consequential trades go down: Mikal Bridges to New York, and Dejounte Murray to New Orleans. Ironically, both of these teams are likely to make additional moves this summer. If the Knicks bring back Isaiah Hartenstein, it almost certainly means Mitchell Robinson will be on the trade block as a way to save money. Julius Randle is probably available as well, given the Knicks success without him a year ago and his large cap figure. For the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram has been a name widely floated in trade rumors and New Orleans still needs an improvement at center, even if rookie Yves Missi figures to be the ideal long-term fit. New York and New Orleans aren’t alone, however, in the realm of top tier contenders who will be active. The Denver Nuggets will either need to retain Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or find his replacement. The Cleveland Cavaliers will surely be seeking an upgrade on the wing, assuming Donovan Mitchell does sign a max contract extension. The Miami Heat seem to be approaching a standoff with Jimmy Butler. The Milwaukee Bucks are a lock to shake things up, given their luxury tax status and another underwhelming postseason showing. The Los Angeles Clippers are facing a crossroads if Paul George leaves, something that feels likelier by the hour. Here are specific dilemmas and scenarios we’re watching, along with some of our favorite mock trades of the summer:

A New Orleans / Milwaukee Match

The Milwaukee Bucks have to make a trade this summer. Running back the same group that fell short in the postseason and never clicked all season would be a mistake, even if the quartet of Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez boasted the best net rating of any four-man group in the NBA. Lillard (turns 34 on July 15th), and Lopez (36) are aging. Middleton is 32 and has a multitude of injuries on his resume. Giannis will hit his 30s in December. The Bucks need to get younger, more athletic, and more dynamic while remaining competitive now. It’s a similar dilemma to what Golden State has faced in recent years, something they threaded the needle with beautifully in 2022, but have struggled with since.

Last season, the Bucks were bad defensively; Adrian Griffin abandoned the drop coverage scheme that Brook Lopez thrived in under Mike Budenholzer and, as a result, Milwaukee’s defense plummeted. Doc Rivers helped stabilize it a bit, but Milwaukee was actually worse record wise under Rivers. The Lillard / Antetokounmpo offensive pairing should thrive. Middleton is an ideal tertiary piece if he can stay healthy. Lopez, for as good as he’s been in previous years, makes sense as a player to be moved. His limitations in space will accentuate as he ages and he will likely offer something of value in the market.

Ironically, Lopez makes a ton of sense in New Orleans. The Pelicans just drafted Yves Missi, an athletic, rim-running big who is quite raw. Missi likely needs a year to develop, making Lopez an ideal fit. Lopez’s ability to stretch the court offensively is an ideal fit alongside Zion Williamson, while his rim protection will be much needed on the defensive end of the court. New Orleans, meanwhile, has also been rumored to be shopping Brandon Ingram, who will be hitting unrestricted free agency in 2025. I don’t view Ingram as a fit in Milwaukee, but could a three-team deal work, with Lopez headed to New Orleans, Ingram going to a third team, and players / assets headed to Milwaukee? I think this framework is rather interesting:

The Bucks swap out Lopez for the younger Jarrett Allen, the Pelicans upgrade at center plus add another shooter in Niang, and the Cavaliers land an ideal wing complement and free up space for Evan Mobley at center. I imagine the Pelicans are likely receiving some sort of draft compensation in this deal as well (perhaps Milwaukee sends a 2031 pick swap to New Orleans, or Cleveland sends two seconds), but this deal does make quite a bit of sense. The Houston Rockets were rumored to have had heavy interest in Brook Lopez last summer and still fit as a landing spot; a Dillon Brooks for Brook Lopez deal works straight up and makes sense for both sides. I’d keep an eye on that one as well, especially with Houston having just drafted Reed Sheppard and having their full, nontaxpayer MLE available to sign a Brooks replacement such as De’Anthony Melton, Caleb Martin, or Gary Harris.

The Bucks also seem likely to, at minimum, explore trading Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton. Because the Bucks are over the second apron, they cannot aggregate their salaries together, a huge blow considering that would have enabled Milwaukee to bring in a player making an AAV of $20-22 million. Would Portis and a 2031 pick swap convince the Detroit Pistons to trade Isaiah Stewart? How about Portis and a protected pick swap to Portland for Robert Williams? Would the Blazers accept Portis for Matisse Thybulle straight up? Pat Connaughton and a draft pick for Corey Kispert? These are the moves Milwaukee is resigned to and, because they lack any sort of meaningful draft capital to trade (along with being unable to aggregate contracts), they are left with a 2031 pick swap as their main asset. Ideally, the Bucks can trade Brook Lopez for assets / players, flip Portis and assets for Stewart or Williams, and then hope Connaughton plus whatever is left could net them a better shooter on the wing. Does Lopez, Portis, and a pick swap for Dillon Brooks and Robert Williams really excite anyone? I think it makes Milwaukee’s roster significantly more cohesive, but still leaves them lacking and injury prone on the interior.

The Sacramento Kings Remain in Pursuit of a Wing

The Sacramento Kings missed the postseason this past year, just a year removed from being the #3 seed in the Western Conference. It is obvious what this Kings’ roster needs: interior rim protection and an upgrade on the wing. The rumor mill indicates that the Kings have been shopping a package of Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes in pursuit of upgrades and Sacramento has their future first round picks to offer as well.

The two names most commonly connected here are Jerami Grant and Kyle Kuzma, two forwards who play for rebuilding teams. Grant, in my opinion, is the better fit, given his superior defensive ability. Barnes and Huerter for Grant works financially, but my question is would the Kings add in Trey Lyles, plus two first round picks, and also get Robert Williams?

Sacramento’s starting five entering the season would be De’Aaron Fox, Keon Ellis, Keegan Murray, Jerami Grant, and Domantas Sabonis, with a two headed monster off the bench in Malik Monk and Robert Williams. That is really, really good and competitive in the Western Conference. Giving up the future first round picks hurt, but Grant is a difference maker on both ends of the court and Williams’ rim protection ability should be valuable for a Kings’ team that struggles on the interior. Portland is able to continue stacking assets and could likely flip Barnes and Huerter next summer due to their expiring contract status. Sacramento could easily replace the 2029 first with Portland’s 2025 2nd round pick, which should be in the top-35 and would be valuable in next year’s loaded class.

Ironically, Sacramento also makes sense as a Brook Lopez landing spot, but I struggle to see why the Bucks would send Lopez to Sacramento for either Kevin Huerter or Harrison Barnes. Maybe if the Bucks were to land Huerter / Barnes and the Portland 2025 2nd it does, which Milwaukee could then offload to Portland in a separate deal for Robert Williams:

Some Bonus Trades We’d Like to See

Admittedly, I wouldn’t bank on any of these being overly realistic or rooted in intel, but it’s always fun to fire off some mock trades. Here are some of my favorites to end the post:

The Raptors bring Andrew Wiggins to his home in Canada, along with acquiring a future first from Golden State (top-8 protected in 2026, unprotected after) in exchange for Bruce Brown. The Warriors land Kentavious Caldwell-Pope via S&T, who will help replace Klay Thompson. The Nuggets reunite with Bruce Brown as their KCP replacement, while Detroit jumps in to absorb Zeke Nnaji’s contract to make the financials work, and land a second-round pick for their trouble.

If this was going to happen, it likely would have already. Zach LaVine has been all over the trade market and makes sense in Utah; if he regains his All Star form, a LaVine / Markkanen duo could push for the Play In with an intriguing young core around them. Trading Collins frees up minutes for top-10 pick from a year ago Taylor Hendricks. The Bulls shed Zach LaVine’s contract and add some much-needed size in the frontcourt. John Collins and Nikola Vucevic would offer little, if any defensive resistance, but Collins would be expendable on an expiring deal next year while offering Chicago significant cap relief. The Bulls may need to add in some picks to get this over the line.

This is an intriguing one to me. The Wizards finally move Kyle Kuzma, recouping a first they are due to send to New York and a few seconds. Julius Randle, with another strong year, could have good trade value as well. The Knicks land Jarrett Allen as their Isaiah Hartenstein replacement and the Cleveland Cavaliers get their wing in Kyle Kuzma, who makes sense as a straight up swap with Jarrett Allen. The Knicks’ starting five would be Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Jarrett Allen, with Josh Hart, Miles McBride, and Mitchell Robinson off the bench. That is a dangerous group.

The San Antonio Spurs land Trae Young here, sending away Keldon Johnson (a solid, young wing), Malaki Branham, a return of Atlanta’s 2025 first round pick, and a 2026 first from San Antonio. I don’t think the Spurs will send back all of Atlanta’s picks, but Atlanta getting their 2025 back would enable them to tank for Cooper Flagg or another star at the top and they receive back their swap rights for 2026 (but San Antonio keeps their 2027 first). The Hawks could totally reset over the next two years, simultaneously find trades for Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, and load up on young players and picks to rebuild around. An initial crew of Zaccharie Risacher, Dyson Daniels, Keldon Johnson, Kobe Bufkin, and a few others wouldn’t be totally devoid of talent either.

Bonus: Landing Spot Predictions for Top Free Agents:

• LeBron James: Los Angeles Lakers
• Paul George: Philadelphia 76ers
• James Harden: Los Angeles Clippers
• DeMar DeRozan: Chicago Bulls
• Klay Thompson: Los Angeles Lakers
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Philadelphia 76ers
• Isaiah Hartenstein: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Miles Bridges: Detroit Pistons
• Tobias Harris: Utah Jazz
• Caleb Martin: Orlando Magic
• Gordon Hayward: Phoenix Suns
• Markelle Fultz: Orlando Magic
• Jonas Valanciunas: San Antonio Spurs
• Tyus Jones: San Antonio Spurs
• Nicolas Batum: Philadelphia 76ers
• Kyle Lowry: Philadelphia 76ers
• Buddy Hield: Orlando Magic
• De’Anthony Melton: Miami Heat
• Luke Kennard: Memphis Grizzlies
• Gary Trent Jr.: Toronto Raptors
• Malik Beasley: Philadelphia 76ers
• Kyle Anderson: Oklahoma City Thunder
• Gary Harris: Denver Nuggets