Resilient. That would be the word to describe the current version of the Dallas Mavericks. Resiliency is an uncommon characteristic of Mavericks’ teams in the Luka Doncic era. Over the past few months, if it feels like Dallas has looked unrecognizable, it’s because they are. The Mavericks are a team that doesn’t just thrive off games played in the trenches; they seem to prefer it. This is a gritty, blue-collar bunch that has won more often than not over the past two months because of their defense, physicality, and two-way paint presence. Now, after fumbling away a chance to take firm control of their playoff series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, these new look Mavs will once again be tasked to get back to their trench warfare to get off the mat, one more time.
Most of the teams Luka Doncic has been a part of in Dallas have had a Hollywood flair to them. They have been teams known for their picturesque spacing, flashy highlights, gaudy offensive numbers, and an overall swagger. Their style was conducive to potential avalanches, where they would overwhelm their opponents with a barrage of 3-PT field goals. However, it was also conducive to yielding said avalanches as well, where if shots weren’t falling, Dallas’ porous transition defense was exposed. Despite having a player the entire league had yet to solve, the Mavericks were a fairly simple team to figure out. They lived by the three and died by the three.
It feels almost ironic how Doncic has become a focal figure of a physical, resilient Mavericks team, one that shares no resemblance to the identity of previous roster iterations. Doncic, battling through a sprained knee, turned ankle, and the relentless defense of Lu Dort, has emerged from games like a prized fighter at times. He’ll leave battered and bloody, heavily laboring off the court of games where the overall total barely eclipses 100. For anyone who has watched Doncic all year, it is clear he is not 100%; he lacks his usual explosion in changing direction both offensively and defensively, he hasn’t gotten his usual lift on his jump shots, and it feels like his deft shooting touch has been compromised by his physical limitations. Despite the laundry list of ailments, Doncic has found spurts to be effective. He was brilliant for 1.5 quarters in Game 2. He had one of his most mature playoff performances in Game 5 of the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers. Yet, Doncic is coming off perhaps his worst playoff performance ever; 18 points on 6-20 shooting, 7 turnovers, and a crucial missed free throw under 20 seconds remaining.
To be clear, Doncic’s woeful Game 4 performance wasn’t the sole reason why the Mavericks lost. As a team, Dallas shot 12/23 from the free throw line. Kyrie Irving shot 4/11 and scored under double figures for the second time this series. Despite a size disadvantage and it being a known weakness, the Oklahoma City Thunder grabbed 12 offensive rebounds, the same number as Dallas. In this series, a good barometer for Dallas’ performance will come in the possession battle. The Mavericks’ concession of offense / spacing for defense at the deadline has made winning the possession battle critical against highly efficient offensive teams, which Oklahoma City certainly is. There is an obvious trend in the wins / losses of this series for the Mavericks:
| DAL Field Goal Attempts | OKC Field Goal Attempts | DAL Free Throw Attempts | OKC Free Throw Attempts | DAL Turnovers | OKC Turnovers | DAL Offensive Rebounds | OKC Offensive Rebounds | |
| Game 1 | 84 | 89 | 25 | 28 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 16 |
| Game 2 | 90 | 89 | 24 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| Game 3 | 91 | 81 | 25 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 6 |
| Game 4 | 88 | 92 | 23 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 12 |
In Game 2, Dallas was +8 in FGA and FTAs. In Game 3, Dallas was +16. While Game 2’s effort from the Mavericks was buoyed by their strong 3-PT shooting, Game 3 was not; the Mavericks shot just 33% from deep (the team was 6/21 from deep outside of PJ Washington) and only 64% from the free throw line. It didn’t matter that Oklahoma City shot 47% overall and matched Dallas’ 33% from deep, because the Mavericks thoroughly dominated the possession battle. That is the recipe for Dallas in this series; they are nowhere near as efficient offensively as the Thunder, especially with Luka Doncic banged up and the wide array of talented defenders Oklahoma City can throw at both Doncic and Irving. Simply put, the Mavericks likely cannot beat the Thunder playing a game with a nearly even split in shot + free throw attempts. Dallas must maximize their possessions, which means limiting turnovers and dominating the offensive glass.
Even with Doncic’s injury, he simply has to be better in Game 5 for the Mavericks to have a chance. It’s a testament to Nico Harrison’s roster construction and Jason Kidd’s coaching that Dallas has gone 5-3 since Doncic suffered the sprained knee in Game 3 against the Clippers. However, star players win championships and win games in the playoffs, as we saw from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 4. Doncic may not be capable of 40+ point explosions this postseason, but we’ve seen his ability to channel spurts of his greatness.
The biggest key of all from Doncic likely won’t come in the form of scoring, however, as it will from limiting turnovers and playing composed. Far too often this series has it seemed that Doncic is more intent on getting a whistle called on Dort than he is at playing his game. In fairness, Doncic is in quite the physical fight with Dort and given the inconsistencies in which games have been officiated, it’s fair to understand his frustrations. But Doncic’s habits around incessant dialogue with the referees have reared their ugly head this series, particularly as of late. Doncic has just 5 total turnovers in Dallas’ two victories, but 12 in Dallas’ two defeats. The Mavericks won Game 3 despite Doncic shooting just 7/17, in large part because of their significant margin in the possession battle. Yes, the Mavericks likely need Doncic to push 30 points to feel good about their chances at victory, but if Doncic limits his turnovers to 2-3, that will be just as critical. No player better embodies the Mavericks’ ability to bounce back than Doncic. When he was criticized for calling out a fan in an earlier game against Phoenix, he responded by scoring 73 points in Atlanta. When he played an awful Game 4 against the Los Angeles Clippers, he responded in Game 5 with 35 points, 10 assists, and 2 turnovers in a 30-point road victory. After losing Game 1 in Oklahoma City, he responded with 29 points, 10 rebounds, and 1 turnover (while generating 3 steals) to even the series. Doncic has always been able to respond in resounding fashion after a new low; we should not expect Game 5 to be any different.
Kyrie Irving’s ability to takeover games in the second half is one of the most exciting acts in the NBA. At times, it feels inevitable. Irving seems to miss clean looks in the first half only to get into an unstoppable rhythm when the court flips sides. Despite the Mavericks’ poor 2nd and 3rd quarters in Game 4, it felt like Irving would come alive in the 4th quarter and propel Dallas to a 3-1 series lead. When he hit an early baseline jumper with around 9 minutes left, it felt inevitable.
It was a rare sight to see Kyrie Irving struggle so much in Game 4; while Irving was held to just 9 points in Game 2, his impact was prolific on that game. He handled Oklahoma City’s aggressive blitzes beautifully, bouncing back from an uncharacteristically sloppy Game 1 and dishing out 11 assists while adding 4 “stocks” as well. Yet, in Game 4, Irving was held in check by Jalen Williams and rookie Cason Wallace, who held up remarkably well against Irving in the 4th quarter. Wallace is a terrific defender and while he deserves a lot of credit, Irving also missed some makeable shots. Simply put, he had an off night, one in which Wallace played a critical role in.
Irving, simply put, needs to be significantly better for the Mavericks to win this series. While Irving seems to feel out the opponent early on, he needs to come out aggressive in Game 5 and be a tone setter, similar to how he was in Game 5 against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Thunder have aggressively blitzed Irving on nearly all screen and roll actions, but Irving should be more assertive early in games. I’d be interested in seeing the Mavericks run empty side actions for Irving with Doncic being one pass away, or running Irving off pin downs for mid-range jumpers.
When zooming out on Game 4, it’s easy to see why the Mavericks lost. It certainly doesn’t negate the disappointment of it; Dallas led for ~90% of the game and Oklahoma City shot 38% from the floor and 26% from deep. The Mavericks’ defense was excellent, but their offense was extremely poor. Despite that, if Dallas made just 70% of their free throws, they win that game. Once again, the resiliency of these Mavericks will be tested. Luckily, their identity and play style allows them to thrive in these exact settings.
To start, there are a few reasons for optimism for Dallas. The first is their defense, particularly in how they’ve bent Oklahoma City’s offensive style to their will over the past two games. Yes, the Thunder had a bit of an outlier shooting night in Game 4, but it was also a direct result of Dallas’ defensive intensity. The Thunder’s spacing was particularly poor, in large part because of possessions where Lu Dort was positioned at the dunker spot. Even so, it’s remarkable to see how different the Thunder’s shot profile was over the past two games:
| Rim Freq. | Mid-Range Freq. | Corner 3-PT Freq. | ATB 3-PT Freq. | |
| Game 1 | 34.0% | 30.9% | 12.8% | 22.3% |
| Game 2 | 37.2% | 30.9% | 12.8% | 19.1% |
| Game 3 | 22.2% | 44.4% | 12.2% | 21.1% |
| Game 4 | 23.5% | 50.0% | 14.3% | 12.2% |
The Mavericks’ rim deterrence has been elite over the past two games and their rim defense, in particular, was outstanding in Game 4. The Mavericks totaled 13 blocks as a team and the Thunder shot just 35.3% at the rim, an unfathomably low number. Ideal shot profiles from a defensive point of view are shots concentrated in the mid-range, which is generally speaking the least efficient area for opposing offenses. The fact that the Thunder took 46(!) mid-range shots in Game 4 plays directly into Dallas’ hands; they eliminated efficient looks at the rim because of their game plan and rim deterrence, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander torched them on contested, mid-range jumpers. This is a specific example of why the playoffs is such a good chess match; similarly to how Mark Daigneault and Oklahoma City are conceding corner threes to PJ Washington, the Mavericks are conceding mid-range jump shots to SGA, at the expense of eliminating shots at the rim (and trying to prevent OKC’s patented drive-and-kick game). The Mavericks struggled the most in the 4th quarter, ironically, when they conceded offensive rebounds which placed their defense out of position. The offensive rebounds, combined with sending help on Gilgeous-Alexander’s drives, led to two corner threes which the Thunder sunk (Dort and Holmgren).
While it is difficult to watch a superstar hit tough shot after tough shot, I’d argue Dallas’ gameplan worked as intended in Game 4, aside from the rebounding struggles and one miscue on Doncic overhelping. Just think; despite Gilgeous-Alexander’s incredible shot making and the poor play from Dallas’ stars, they still win this game if they simply make 70% of their free throws. The Thunder shot 50.0%(!) on long mid-range jumpers in Game 4 and shot 58.3% in Game 3. Regression is likely due for these shots, even with the Thunder shooting well below their marks from deep in Game 4. If the Mavericks can continue funneling SGA and Jalen Williams into those mid-range shots, it should be enough to offset any potential 3-PT accuracy explosion the Thunder receive in Game 5.
We’ve outlined how critical the possession battle is for Dallas to win and the advanced numbers illustrate Dallas’ struggles in Game 4. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Mavericks’ half-court defense was terrific in Game 4; they held Oklahoma City to just 87.6 points per 100 half court plays, an elite mark. However, the Thunder were far more efficient off offensive rebounds, just like they were in Game 1. While Dallas’ transition defense was largely excellent in Game 4 as well, it was significantly worse off live ball turnovers. The Mavericks allowed just 100.0 points per 100 transition plays, another elite mark. However, when it came to live ball turnovers, they were just average, and these usually lead to the most efficient shots for an opponent.
Truthfully, the formula feels simple for Dallas; barring extreme shot variance for either team in either direction, the Mavericks will win if:
- They hold Oklahoma City to <20% offensive rebounding rate
- They stay within +/- 3 turnover margin to Oklahoma City
Those are both strong asks out of a Mavericks team who, despite their grit and effort, is going up against a superior opponent. Sure, the Thunder are young and inexperienced, but they are the #1 seed in the Western Conference for a reason. They were top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, they have a plethora of talented shooters off the bench and arguably the most prolific driver in the league in SGA. They have an elite rim protector in Chet Holmgren, who deserves far more credit for his interior defense this series than he has currently received (the Mavericks have yet to shoot better than 57% at the rim in a game this series. For reference, 57% is in the 31st percentile by CTG’s numbers).
But yet, there are reasons for optimism. It feels like the Mavericks’ process has gotten better and better as the series has progressed. Their gameplan has baked in higher usage rates for Lu Dort and Josh Giddey. They have forced Oklahoma City into a shot profile that limits their efficiency. Meanwhile, Dallas’ shot profile has improved; 15%+ of their shot attempts have been on corner threes over the past three games (by design from OKC), but they reached a series-high rim rate in Game 4. Overall, 52.1% of Dallas’ shot attempts came either at the rim or on corner threes in Game 4, compared to just 37.8% for Oklahoma City (per CTG). That process and gameplan, more often than not, should yield the results Dallas is looking for.
We have seen the Mavericks get off the mat repeatedly this season. Whether it was pre-deadline, post-deadline when the Mavericks lost 4 of 5 after the All-Star Break, going into Game 2 against the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard returning, or headed back to Los Angeles for Game 5 in this exact same scenario, the Mavericks have consistently bounced back. This team is a far cry from previous Dallas’ rosters; they have the personnel to deploy a gameplan that allows them to force teams into the mud, where the Mavericks thrive. However, that gameplan can only get them so far. Ultimately, the Mavericks will need their superstars, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, to push them over the edge. Luckily for Dallas, there are no two better players who better embody that bounce back mentality.
The Chirp 