Luka Doncic and Christmas feels like a perfect match, perhaps because of their shared ability to produce magic. There hasn’t been a better display of Doncic’s sorcery this season than what we saw on Christmas night, with a stat line so outrageous, you would think it’s fictitious. 50 points, 15 assists, 6 rebounds, 4 steals, 3 blocks on 65/50/100 shooting splits. Despite being consistently doubled and blitzed all night, Doncic showed off the entire bag of what makes him so dangerous. His crosscourt passing, his signature step back three and his downhill drives to the rim. Doncic is the Rudolph to the Mavericks’ sleigh, guiding the offense through his effortless ability to bend the opponents’ defense to his own talent and will.
When this Phoenix Suns / Dallas Mavericks Christmas Day game was announced, it was surely meant to be an opportunity for the Suns’ newly minted “Big 3” to unleash their wave of offensive firepower against the franchise’s greatest nemesis in recent years. Instead, it turned into another rendition of How the Grinch Stole Christmas, with Doncic once again going into the Footprint Center and thoroughly dominating the Suns and their stars in one fell swoop. While Monday night’s performance was a national statement that Doncic remains one of the three most talented offensive players in the world, it also reinforced an observation that has been pervasive throughout the year: this is a scary Mavericks team that can make legitimate noise this season. The Dallas Mavericks are not a modern-day version of A Christmas Carol, nor do they have a comparison to Ebenezer Scrooge. However, the Dallas Mavericks of Christmas Present are here, and they are far from the Dallas Mavericks of Christmas Past.
Christmas Day, 2022 was a celebratory day in Dallas. Luka Doncic showed up to his first career Christmas game in true Texan garb, fitted with a cowboy hat, boots, and a bolo tie. Dirk Nowitzki’s one-legged fade statue (the best in sports) was unveiled outside the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks beat the Los Angeles Lakers 124-115, led behind Luka Doncic and Christian Wood combining for 62 points, 17 rebounds, and 16 assists.
While the end result was positive for the Dallas Mavericks, it wasn’t an inspiring performance. The Mavericks were down 11 at the half to a Lakers team missing Anthony Davis, and one that started LeBron James, Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder, Patrick Beverley, and Lonnie Walker IV. The Lakers trapped and blitzed Doncic aggressively and dared the Mavericks’ supporting cast to beat them. In the first half, they were unable to. Dallas’ roster flaws were on full display, as the role players struggled in making quick decisions off 4-on-3 situations, attacking hard closeouts, and making open threes the Lakers sacrificed in an effort to contain Doncic. Dallas did end up winning the game, buoyed by a 9/13 3-PT shooting display in a 51-point third quarter, but the Mavericks’ performance did little to inspire their long-term prospects. In fact, it only shone a national spotlight on flaws that would derail their season; an overreliance on standstill 3-PT shooters making shots, a lack of secondary playmaking, a lack of connective passers, and a lack of rim pressure outside of Luka Doncic. Outside of Dallas’ scorching hot third quarter, the Mavericks were outscored 94-73 by the shorthanded Lakers and shot 9/31 (29.0%) from deep.
After the Christmas win over the Lakers, Dallas did manage to win four games in a row. They were 22-16. Even for a team sorely missing Jalen Brunson, it felt like Doncic’s greatness would again carry the Mavericks back to the postseason. However, it was a mirage and an unsustainable brand of basketball, built solely around positive 3-PT variance. As teams continued to blitz Doncic and force the supporting cast to handle more of the playmaking and shot making burden, the Mavericks crumbled. Dallas didn’t have the defensive backbone to stabilize themselves either, as they were unable to contain dribble penetration and lacked any rim protection presence on the back end. The Mavericks finished the year 16-28 and missed the postseason altogether, culminating one of the more embarrassing and humbling seasons we have seen in recent memory amongst any team. It was evident the Mavericks had to evolve.
The Dallas Mavericks didn’t have the flashiest offseason, but they easily had one of the most impactful. The team entered the summer over the salary cap with star player Kyrie Irving as a free agent and a ~70% chance to keep their best asset, their first-round draft pick. If Nico Harrison was tasked with making lemonade, he was given a single lemon with a tablespoon of sugar. Six months later, it’s evident Harrison worked his own sorcery into fully transforming the Mavericks. All of the offseason work, both from the front office and players themselves, was on display by the Mavericks of Christmas Present.
The Phoenix Suns defended Luka Doncic from the jump in a nearly identical manner to how the Los Angeles Lakers (and countless other teams, especially this season) did it a year ago: relentless double teams. This season, however, was a vastly different performance. The entire team, including Doncic, seemed comfortable in 4-on-3 situations. While some of this is more repetition against doubles, it’s largely a result of the increased versatility and multidimensional play of the players sharing the court with Doncic. Take this offensive possession two minutes into the game for example:
Last season, the Mavericks didn’t have a center comfortable with catching a pass in a 4-on-3 situation and quickly attacking the basket. Dereck Lively II, at 19 years old, rolls hard to the rim and finishes this over Kevin Durant(!) with zero hesitation. This isn’t a new development from Lively either. It started a few weeks ago against the Oklahoma City Thunder, when Lively started attacking the basket hard off double teams rather than being indecisive (and therefore, allowing the defense to recover):
Lively’s ability to operate as a vertical spacer, with significantly more athleticism and size than Dwight Powell, has also been a huge boon for the offense when Doncic is able to turn the corner against double teams. Lively earned plenty of dunks with defenders around him against the Suns simply because he’s too tall, strong, and decisive inside. With all due respect to Dwight Powell and Christian Wood, there are probably 3-4 examples in this great highlight reel by Mavs Film Room below that the Mavericks don’t convert a year ago:
It isn’t just Dereck Lively; Derrick Jones Jr. continued his terrific season on Christmas night and further cemented himself as the best minimum salary signing in the NBA (him and teammate Dante Exum are jockeying for #1 and #2). Jones Jr. gives Dallas a skillset on the wings they have sorely lacked for the previous few seasons. Jones Jr. is an outstanding perimeter defender, an elite athlete, and possesses the ability to put the ball on the deck and forcefully attack the rim (not to mention, a capable standstill 3-PT shooter as well). This added dynamic to the offense makes it much easier to punish defenses for trapping Doncic, as evident in the 4th quarter last night:
The last name to highlight? Dante Exum, another minimum salary free agent addition. Exum probably played his worst game in weeks against the Suns, which should illustrate just how impactful he has been to the Mavericks. Exum has always been talented, but largely fell off the NBA radar due to his inability to stay healthy and being a well below average 3-PT shooter. Overseas, Exum shot 41.7% on threes and this season, he’s at a career high 43.4% from deep. His 3-PT ability has been a huge boon to this offense, but his best skills are his connective passing, transition offense, and ability to attack the rim.
This is one of my favorite Exum clips of the season: Doncic is doubled here and outlets to Olivier Maxence-Prosper, who is cut off by Jaren Jackson Jr. and picks up his dribble. At first, this feels like a situation the 2022-23 Dallas Mavericks would get themselves into, but Dante Exum is here to save the day. He’s able to actively seek out the ball, catch it on the move, and attack the basket with purpose:
Exum has done this consistently throughout the season. Exum is averaging 5.0 drives per game in just 19 MPG and he’s shooting 79% at the rim, the 96th percentile for guards (according to Cleaning The Glass). Here’s Exum attacking one of the best defenders in the NBA, Matisse Thybulle, and finishing at the rim in a quasi transition opportunity:
Exum is also in the 96th percentile efficiency on cuts (5.1% of possessions) and 75th percentile off transition. He’s a perfect fit for this new evolution of the Mavericks; Dallas is 11.5 points per 100 possessions better with Dante Exum on the court, easily the best mark on the team.
The trio of Lively, Jones Jr., and Exum have been the biggest contributors to the evolution we’ve seen of the Dallas Mavericks this season. They are all positive defenders who can slash, cut, rebound (both ends of the court), and push the pace. Much has been made about Dallas’ increase in pace this season (DAL is 8th in pace this season, compared to 28th last season), but the Mavericks’ offensive rebounding increase has been a huge improvement as well. The Mavericks were 30th in offensive rebounding percentage a year ago and were 28th in efficiency in converting offensive rebounds to points (per Cleaning The Glass). This season? Dallas is 24th in offensive rebounding percentage (4.4% increase) and third in efficiency at converting. Dallas has naturally baked in an increased ability to manufacture easier, more efficient shots in transition and off the offensive boards because of roster improvements and strategic adjustments. It’s been a massive transformation for the Mavericks.
While the Mavericks have evolved in a major way this year, it’s not a linear process. The Mavericks of Christmas Past can still return now and then and on Christmas day, we saw it a bit. Yet, for three quarters of the game, perhaps no team embodied the “Mavericks of Christmas Past” more than the Phoenix Suns. The showdown played out in similar fashion to the Mavericks / Lakers Christmas game of 2022, albeit with the Suns playing the Mavericks role. It was Phoenix who exploded in the third quarter to take a lead, outscoring the Mavericks 38-27 as their role players finally capitalized off Dallas doubling and funneling help towards Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon combined to shoot 10/13 for 27 points in the quarter. The Mavericks shot just 4/13 from deep in the quarter as they struggled to make shots off Doncic double teams (and were 2/11 before the final minute).
For the rest of the game? It was all Dallas. The Phoenix Suns supporting cast was primarily limited to standstill 3-PT shots as a result of Dallas’ swarming defense towards Durant and Booker; 52.3% of Phoenix’s shot attempts not taken by Durant or Booker were three pointers, including 23 combined attempts from Grayson Allen and Chimezie Metu. The starkest contrast of the supporting casts’ ability to capitalize off double teams comes from the half court numbers: Dallas scored 115.7 points per 100 possessions, good for a 90th percentile performance with Doncic doubled for nearly the entire game. Phoenix? 92.1 points per 100 possessions, good for a 32nd percentile performance. The Suns’ successful offense came in transition, which fueled their big 3rd quarter spurt as Dallas’ rotations and double teams were a bit scattered. Once the Mavericks offense got cooking again, the Suns had no chance to keep up. Another stark contrast between last year’s Mavs team and this year’s embodied in the game? Phoenix allowed the Mavericks to shoot 77.3% at the rim, while the Mavericks held Phoenix to just 64.0% at the rim. The Christmas game was perhaps the closest thing possible to physically seeing the difference between The Mavericks of Christmas Past and the Mavericks of Christmas Present.
Charles Dickens’ novel also sees a visit from the Spirit of Christmas Yet to Come, which is the continuous evolution of the Dallas Mavericks for the rest of this season and beyond. Luka Doncic alluded to that himself in his postgame on court interview, when he mentioned the Mavericks dealing with injuries and are far away from their potential. Kyrie Irving coming back will surely give a boost and take the offensive load off Doncic, who has regularly surpassed 40 minutes per night in recent weeks. Josh Green will also be a welcome return; while he’s struggled a bit this season, his slashing and passing ability should pop against Doncic double teams. Let’s not forget Maxi Kleber either. Kleber has barely played this year due to injuries and while he was ineffective when on the court, he gives the Mavericks some much needed size, frontcourt depth, and another floor spacer.
Last year’s Mavericks team on Christmas at 18-16 was not built to last. This year’s team at 18-12? It feels like they’re just scratching the surface. Perhaps this is because of how obvious the areas of internal improvement are from this year’s roster versus a capped team a year ago. The return of the aforementioned trio is the cleanest and obvious area of improvement. Dereck Lively has vastly exceeded expectations already, yet he should only get better with more game experience. Dallas’ bench also has some young players who have had some nice moments in recent weeks, such as Jaden Hardy and Olivier Maxence-Prosper. They may not be needed as significant rotation contributors this season, but their growth gives the Mavericks a higher ceiling; if either is able to become a consistent presence, Dallas further adds to what is already impressive depth.
There isn’t a more obvious area of improvement however, that makes this Mavericks team feel so much more dangerous than the growth of Luka Doncic. Doncic’s performance against the Suns was nothing short of legendary. It may have been the best game of his NBA career, a take that is almost laughable considering he outscored a 65-win team on that same court in the first half of Game 7 two years ago. That’s how good Doncic was yesterday, but his evolution this season is so much more than the gaudy numbers. Doncic has mastered the entire control of the court. He’s always played at his own pace, but this year, you can see him directing the offense to a much larger extent and bending the defense to his own desires. Doncic is able to generate a good look for the Mavericks every single trip and he’s left defenses resorting to double teaming him, a previous Achilles heel for this team that has quickly become a major strength. Doncic is shooting a career best from three and has taken more catch and shoot than in recent years. The faster pace and increased three-point rate has certainly eased the toll on his body, which combined with increased conditioning, has allowed Doncic to play major minutes without having to sit out back to backs for rest or injury maintenance. Doncic is healthier, nimbler, wiser, and more lethal than ever this season.
While the above growth highlights another elevation of Doncic’s ceiling, what puts him into the MVP stratosphere has been his commitment on the defensive end of the court this season. Doncic had four steals and three blocks against the Suns and held his own in pick-and-roll or isolation settings. Doncic struggles on rotations and can get lazy going for steals at times, but by and large, he’s significantly improved defensively in terms of effort, competitiveness, and performance. My favorite play of Doncic’s campaign so far isn’t as flashy as others, but it’s indicative of how good he can be when fully locked in defensively:
Doncic stripped Holmgren twice in this game to ignite a record-setting 30-0 run against one of the five best teams in the NBA, despite being significantly undermanned and playing on a back-to-back. Doncic’s on court leadership and demeanor throughout that frantic push was him at his best and it’s the version of him we’ve seen more often than not this season. The Luka Doncic that can win MVP and claim to be the best player in the world is the one we saw in Phoenix last night, but he’s also one that has played more complete games this season, limited his discussions with the officiating, and is the engine making the Mavericks go.
Dallas’ evolution this season is a culmination of multiple factors. An outstanding offseason that featured additions of Dereck Lively II, Derrick Jones Jr., Dante Exum, Grant Williams, and others. As a result of their roster turnover, the Mavericks were able to reengineer their on court strategy to bake in more efficient and easier forms of offense by operating more in transition and attacking the offensive glass more. Combined with adding more multidimensional players who act as more than standstill 3-PT shooters, Dallas’ offense is nearly unstoppable. And defensively, with Dereck Lively’s ability to protect the paint, Luka Doncic’s commitment on that end of the court, and having multiple defensive-minded rotation pieces, there is a path for the Mavericks to be league average on that end of the court.
The Mavericks of Christmas Yet to Come have potential to be far greater than what they are this year, which is one that speaks of a frisky team that can make a run in the postseason (assuming they get / stay healthy). That’s an exciting development and quite the turnaround from eight months ago, where things felt bleak. There is a young core to build around and a roster filled with athletic, versatile pieces who have begun to mesh around the Doncic nucleus.
Charles Dickens’ original novel utilizes the Spirit of Christmas Yet to Come as a final reminder to Ebenezer Scrooge to change his ways of the present. Based on the improvements and evolution of the Dallas Mavericks in the past several months, that future spirit may not be necessary to serve as a warning for what may befall them. Rather, it could be an image for what may continue to grow alongside their superstar.
The Chirp 