The first great slate of the college football season arrives this weekend, as we have multiple top-25 matchups in what should be a fun Saturday to sit on the couch for 12 hours and watch football.
A quick note before we dive in, but didn’t the opening weekend feel a little disappointing this year? Colorado / TCU was clearly the best on-field product of the weekend, but other than that, was the next best game… Wyoming / Texas Tech? LSU and Florida State initially seemed destined for instant classic territory, but that faded pretty fast in the second half. Aside from Clemson getting embarrassed by Duke, there weren’t any stunning upsets either. Having such a small playoff field has essentially incentivized teams to stay away from marquee non-conference matchups, especially Week 1 where a lot of teams opt for tune ups against FCS / Group of 5 schools to generate some easy ticketing revenue and an easy victory.
Week 1 Takeaways
My biggest Week 1 takeaway? The Pac-12 is going to be must watch TV all season long. It’s incredibly frustrating for the fans to watch the conference disband after this season; part of what makes the Pac-12 in particular so great is the high-octane offenses and “Pac-12 After Dark” craziness. In fact, it’s what makes the current conference alignments so entertaining, as each has its own regional style of football clustered by geography.
Off of my soapbox, but Michael Penix Jr. and Washington lit up what should be a good Boise State team this season. I’ve been a bit skeptical of just how good Penix is, but he silenced everyone with a Heisman-worthy performance on Saturday. Washington is loaded offensively, but their defense was quietly very impressive as well. Oregon and Bo Nix scored 81 points, albeit against FCS opponent Portland State. Still, I’m not sure there is a team more overlooked in the country than Oregon; Nix is one of the top quarterbacks in all of college football and Dan Lanning is a terrific defensive coach. USC and Caleb Williams have proven repeatedly they are must-see TV and UCLA with freshman Dante Moore may quickly reach that level as well. And this is before I mention Oregon State and DJ Uiagalelei, Washington State and Cam Ward, Utah and Cam Rising, and the combo of Cal, Stanford, Arizona, and Arizona State who all impressed offensively. Oh, and did I forget to mention Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter with Coach Prime at Colorado? I already cannot wait for conference play this year.
Something I found a little surprising? The rather muted offensive performances from Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State this past weekend. It wasn’t anything concerning, just merely an observation. Georgia is breaking in a new quarterback in Carson Beck, plus Mike Bobo has taken over from Todd Monken as offensive coordinator. Ohio State is also replacing CJ Stroud with Kyle McCord, who was shaky, albeit the Buckeyes’ offense performed better than the numbers indicated. Michigan did have a returning quarterback in JJ McCarthy and the offensive performance was less than inspiring, although it was a similar story to Ohio State’s. I think this year could easily be one, however, where a team outside of the top-3 emerges, especially considering how none of the current top teams have a veteran quarterback (outside of Michigan). We already saw Florida State and Jordan Travis look extremely impressive Week 1, but also the aforementioned USC, Washington, and Oregon, plus Notre Dame with Sam Hartman and Tennessee with Joe Milton. You’d be hard pressed to find a recent example of a team winning a National Championship without either a veteran quarterback or clear top-5 quarterback / prospect in the country.
Last takeaway? The North Carolina Tar Heels pummeled South Carolina in Charlotte on Saturday, a result I wasn’t expecting. They did it with their defense, sacking Spencer Rattler nine times and overcoming two Drake Maye interceptions. The Tar Heels lost offensive coordinator Phil Longo to Wisconsin in the offseason and I was skeptical of how good Maye and the Tar Heels’ offense would be this season. If their defense, particularly their defensive line, keeps on playing like that, it may not matter if their offense regresses a bit.
Week 2 Lookahead
Noon / Morning Slate
The noon slate headliner is clearly Nebraska at Colorado, the first home game in Boulder during the Coach Prime era. The Buffaloes proved to be must watch television last weekend; Shedeur Sanders threw for 500+ yards, Dylan Edwards flashed some incredible explosiveness, and Travis Hunter will soon be dubbed the “Shohei Ohtani” of college football. Matt Rhule’s tenure at Nebraska brought the ghosts out of the closet… again, as Nebraska blew a late 4th quarter lead in a game where their win probability pushed 90%+.
Another game to watch? Notre Dame at NC State. This year’s NC State team isn’t as good as years’ past; their defense has graduated key players and Brennan Armstrong is not as good as Devin Leary. Still, this should be a rowdy atmosphere and a good litmus test for the Fighting Irish, who have looked very impressive, albeit against Navy and Tennessee State. I’ll also give a quick shoutout to my own alma mater, Delaware, for heading into Happy Valley to take on Penn State.
Afternoon Slate
The three headliners here? Well, it starts with a battle down south between Ole Miss and Tulane. Tulane beat USC in the Sugar Bowl last year and boasts an explosive offense; the new clock rules have unfortunately mitigated some of the high scoring aspects of college football, but the scoreboard should be lighting up in this one. Ole Miss did lose two key skill players from last year’s team (Zach Evans, Jonathan Mingo), so this should be a good size up of their offensive unit this season.
Two of the most disappointing teams in college football last season are fulfilling the back half of their home/home series, with the Texas A&M Aggies traveling to South Beach for the Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Texas A&M won this battle a year ago and with Bobby Petrino calling the offensive plays, perhaps the Aggies’ offense can be more explosive this year. Both A&M and Miami looked good Week 1, but it’s tough to tell how good they truly are when going up against New Mexico and Miami (OH), respectively.
Lastly, the CyHawk battle of Iowa should be the ugliest game of the weekend, yet it embraces the ugly. Iowa’s offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz needs to average 25 PPG in order to keep his job. Iowa State has multiple players suspended for gambling infractions which were a violation of NCAA rules. It’s almost unfathomable to think that this game was 44-41 Iowa in 2017. They haven’t scored more than 45 points combined in the four games since.
Evening Slate
The headliner at night is the Texas Longhorns’ return trip to Tuscaloosa to faceoff with the Alabama Crimson Tide. This game was awesome a year ago and was overshadowed by a highly questionable roughing the passer call on Bryce Young. Texas probably wins last year’s game if Quinn Ewers didn’t get hurt / that call goes their way. This year? I’m not so sure. The Longhorns weren’t overly impressive against Rice, lost a lot of talent at the skill positions, and Ewers has been inconsistent over his entire career. This year’s Alabama team isn’t as talented offensively as in years past, but they are great defensively and have home field advantage. Plus, we saw Jalen Milroe’s ability to improvise and make plays with his legs last week.
A few other callouts? Oregon going to Texas Tech should be a fun game and has all the makings of a nail biter; the Red Raiders arguably should have beat Wyoming a week ago and this feels like an easy bounce back spot to predict, with a ranked team playing in 100-degree weather under the lights to kick off the home season. Wisconsin / Washington State should be fun as well; this was the beginning of the end of the Paul Chryst era a year ago and the Badgers should be a lot more exciting this year with the Air Raid coming to Madison. If Wisconsin wins in convincing fashion there, I think you’d be looking at a dark horse College Football Playoff contender.
For the night caps? Stanford’s offense was electric at Hawaii a week ago and is facing a porous USC defense in a game that promises fireworks. Auburn and California combined for 100+ points a week ago despite each being historically defense-focused programs; can California’s new Air Raid keep up with Hugh Freeze and the Tigers, whose two quarterback system was extremely effective a week ago? And how about Jaden Rashada and Kenny Dillingham welcoming Mike Gundy in Tempe, for a game with 100+ temperatures at 10:30 ET?! What a great slate ahead.
Betting Card
Illinois / Kansas Under 56.5 (1U)
Last season, Bret Bielema and Illinois had the #1 scoring defense in the country. The Fighting Illini lost a lot from that unit a year ago and Toledo scored 28 last week. However, the Rockets are a veteran group and boasted below average EPA numbers. Jalon Daniels may start for Kansas, but even if he does, he’s returning from injury, and I think Kansas’ offense is a bit overrated from their incredible season a year ago. This is a big, physical Illinois team that isn’t going to run an explosive, high-octane offense. Their ideal scenario involves a low scoring, physical game and they’re breaking in a new quarterback (Luke Altmyer) as well.
Texas A&M at Miami (FL) +4.5 (1U)
This is a game that makes me a bit weary; both of these programs were fairly dreadful last season and it’s probably a more prudent approach to wait and see on both teams this season. Still, a short home underdog against a program with offensive question marks? It’s a good spot and despite the poor season last year, Mario Cristobal has a proven track record of success at Oregon. Miami is built bigger than most ACC programs and can compete in the trenches with A&M. I think Tyler Van Dyke will have a bounce back campaign and this is a good value spot for the Canes, as you get a field goal of wiggle room at home.
Ole Miss at Tulane +7.5 (1U)
As noted above, this is an Ole Miss offense who lost two key skill players from last year’s team in Zach Evans and Jonathan Mingo. Quinshon Judkins is still on the roster and he’s a terrific back, but I’m not sure the Rebels’ offense is so explosive this year to run opponents off the field. Meanwhile, Tulane’s offense isn’t a slouch either; Michael Pratt is one of the best Group of 5 quarterbacks in the country and just last week, the Green Wave ranked in the 99th percentile in EPA/drop back. This is a huge game for Tulane’s program and at home with the hook, this one is right up my alley.
Miami (OH) at UMass +7 (1U)
One team I’m eyeing up this year? UMass, which feels wrong, considering they’ve historically been a horrible program. I think the Minutemen offer strong value here, however. Against an SEC defense a week ago, UMass ripped off 5.0+ YPC; in a more favorable game script, I think their rushing attack can spearhead this offense into a successful showing at home. It’s unclear whether Taisun Phommachanh will start, but if he plays, he’s a difference maker. He’s a former three-star prospect who started his career at Clemson.
Oregon at Texas Tech +7.5 (0.6U)
I’m paying up a bit for the hook here, but I really like this spot for Texas Tech. There is a ton of public money on Oregon and I think the narrative here is distorting the real image. To set the scene, Oregon scored 81 points a week ago (against an FCS team), while Texas Tech lost to Wyoming. However, context is important; Texas Tech lost in double OT, had a dominant 17-point lead early, and Wyoming’s stadium is at the highest elevation in all of FBS. I think Texas Tech is better than they showed last week and while Oregon is good, this is a tough spot to be in. A road game against a motivated team, looking for a bounce back in the sweltering Texas heat? I don’t think the Red Raiders pull the upset, but I do think they keep it close. Oh, and did we mention Texas Tech’s quarterback Tyler Shough is an Oregon transfer?
UCF at Boise State +146 (0.6U)
Boise State got rocked Week 1, but I think they’re a better team than what they showed. Their defense got torched consistently on deep throws, but Washington has a top-3 QB/WR grouping in the country. The Broncos weren’t effective on third downs or in the red zone, something I don’t anticipate will repeat itself in a more comfortable environment. This is a long trip for UCF, who dominated Kent State last week. Still, I’m not sure UCF is as good as they showed last week, just like I don’t think Boise State is as bad. It’s a bounce back spot in acknowledging it’s tough to win on the road in college football, especially when it’s cross country.
Arizona / Mississippi State Over 60.5 (1U)
Arizona returns quarterback Jayden de Laura and wide receiver Jacob Cowing, a duo that is among the most underrated in the country. Last week’s game data showed Arizona had nine drives that went past Northern Arizona’s 40-yard line and last season, they scored 20+ in 11/12 games. 67% of their games last season went over this point total and while there are new clock rules in effect, this is an Arizona offense that puts up points and a defense that doesn’t do a lot to prevent scoring. Mississippi State has one of the best quarterbacks in the country (Will Rogers) and a top running back in Jo’Quavious Marks. They can put up points too.
Stanford +29.5 at USC Trojans (1U)
Stanford is going to look a little different this season, as new head coach Troy Taylor is an Air Raid disciple. We saw that Week 1, when the Cardinal put up 37 points in a win over Hawaii on the road, something that isn’t easy to do. More impressively, but the Cardinal didn’t do it through chunk plays, but rather, methodical drives and execution. We’ve seen USC’s defense struggle to tackle and get stops and last season, they benefitted from terrific turnover luck. So far, they’ve looked a little better, but Stanford is much closer to San Jose State than Nevada. I think four touchdowns to a defensively challenged team about to enter their idle week feels like a nice spot to target.
Oklahoma State at Arizona State +3.5 (1U)
100+ degrees under the lights in Tempe? Arizona State’s final didn’t look good against FCS Southern Utah (24-21), but they played much better than the score indicated. Early in the year, I think the books can sometimes overvalue certain teams, and Oklahoma State is one of them. Simply put, I don’t think the Cowboys are that good; they lost a ton of talent from last year’s team (namely quarterback Spencer Sanders) and still haven’t finalized who their starting quarterback actually is. Arizona State, on the flip side, is a team I’m higher on. Kenny Dillingham has led successful offenses at every stop of his career and freshman quarterback Jaden Rashada has a lot of talent. In a friendly home environment, this is a nice spot for Rashada and the Sun Devils to make a statement against a team that doesn’t have an identity.
The Chirp 