We have never introduced a fantasy football guide or article at The Chirp, but this year, that is changing. I completed my fantasy draft on Monday (against a few of my fellow Chirp teammates), hence the late release of this post. But, after research on all 32 teams, it felt worth sharing for the remaining stragglers who still need to draft, alongside leveraging these projections and tidbits for prop bets and season long futures. In conjunction with this post, we’ll be dropping our annual season preview on Monday, where we’ll analyze our composite team profiles to predict the 2023-24 season. Stay tuned!
Fantasy Philosophy
If you consume enough fantasy football content, you’ve probably been exposed to every philosophy in the book over how to win the draft. We’ve seen some strategies become rather mainstream, including the “zero RB” strategy as the NFL shifted to be more pass heavy and fantasy formats gravitated towards 0.5 or full PPR scoring. This year, it feels like more people are catching on to the perceived value of the tight end position, evidenced by Travis Kelce’s ADP of #5 overall.
Personally, I don’t have a specific fantasy philosophy, but I do have some general principles I use to guide my strategy on and before draft night:
- Make sure to handcuff at least two of your running backs. Locking in two full backfields is the easiest way to provide some reassurance that, at minimum, you’ll have two running backs to start each week regardless of injuries. Your team’s ceiling and performance will plummet if one of your starters suffers an injury, and instead of pivoting to his backup (who will presumably soak up the majority of the lost touches), you have to instead rely on a below average starter elsewhere. I wouldn’t go overboard with the handcuff strategy, especially for teams where no clear handcuff exists (i.e. Dallas). But opting for a handcuff over that “sleeper” pick in Round 14-16 is a significantly better investment. Buy the insurance at its lowest price on draft night.
- Take advantage of platform rankings. Meaning, if you draft on ESPN for example, taking advantage of the fact that the majority of your league will gravitate towards ADP and the names immediately on their screen, which can open up a ton of value for you if you’re willing to “reach” a bit based on ESPN’s rankings. I don’t have data to back it up, but my hunch is that ESPN’s preseason rankings are not very predictive of end of season results. Sometimes, scrolling down another 5-10 players can find you options with a more optimal scenario, rather than the immediate names thrown into your face. The easiest way to ensure this is by making your own rankings ahead of time and following off that board, rather than the one ESPN displays.
- Adding “tiers” to your rankings is a really smart way to derive value as the draft is ongoing. While the best player available model usually works well, it also has drawbacks as fantasy football needs to factor in bye weeks and advantages of drafting say, the projected TE4 over the projected TE5. As an example, this year for quarterback, I think there are two well above the rest, then a next tier that has six strong options all relatively close to each other. After that? It’s a massive drop off for me, meaning if I can’t get one of the top eight, I’d rather wait in the draft and grab one in that next tier, where I have many names bundled together. Don’t be afraid to have some blank squares in your starting lineup as you get into Rounds 8, 9, and 10. RBs and WRs comprise the bulk of your points and, more often than not, win you the league. Plus, if you have a lot of high-quality depth at those premium spots, it’s easy to trade up at the quarterback/tight end position than to trade down at running back or wide receiver.
- Don’t be afraid of bad offenses. Of course, it’s better to invest heavily in the top offenses, but this year in particular, a lot of the offenses that look bad on paper present prime opportunities for fantasy production. Volume, in particular, is an extremely important metric for me. While the Arizona Cardinals may not score a lot of points, they will certainly throw the ball a lot and will presumably have a heavy percentage of their targets concentrated with 2-3 names. Same thing in Tampa Bay. Looking at lost volume as well is really important, with an example being how the Green Bay Packers lost over 40% of their target share from a season ago, but their only two additions were rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave. This should present a massive opportunity for Christian Watson, but many people are reticent to select him because of an unproven quarterback.
- Lastly, this may seem obvious, but every year it’s inevitable for a few players to take a defense or kicker before the final two rounds. Personally, I think this is a massive mistake. Kicker, in particular, is a bit of a crapshoot. Justin Tucker is obviously the best pure kicker in football, but if the Ravens convert a high rate of their red zone trips to touchdowns and increase their 4th down go rate, is he really that valuable in fantasy? Those metrics are really hard to predict and, selecting Tucker over someone like Will Lutz feels like chasing an extra 1-2 points while sacrificing the option to take more depth at WR. Let other people take Tucker or the San Francisco 49ers defense in Rounds 12/13, while you take Jerick McKinnon.
Before I dive in further, a few notes. All of the information / rankings here assume season long, full PPR formats. Best ball, dynasty leagues, 0.5 PPR, or standard scoring will have the same research points, but the rankings will differ. This also assumes no quirky scoring boosts and a standard roster format (2RB, 2WR, FLEX). We’ll go position by position with rankings and takeaways below, with our final rankings at the end. Enjoy!
(And a big thank you to all the sites we pulled research from. A few shoutouts in particular to our favorite articles, including Scott Barrett’s 69 Stats, Sharp Football’s Red Zone Analysis, and all the various public repositories to grab this information).
Quarterbacks
| QUARTERBACKS | ESPN Rank | ESPN Pos. Rank | ADP | |||
| 1 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 28 | 3 | 22 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 39 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 26 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 27 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Justin Fields | QB | CHI | 56 | 7 | 44 |
| 6 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 55 | 6 | 43 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 40 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Anthony Richardson | QB | IND | 123 | 14 | 125 |
| 9 | Geno Smith | QB | SEA | 125 | 16 | 122 |
| 10 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 74 | 9 | 60 |
| 11 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 104 | 12 | 114 |
| 12 | Derek Carr | QB | NO | 219 | 22 | 164 |
| 13 | Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 103 | 11 | 87 |
| 14 | Russell Wilson | QB | DEN | 126 | 17 | 139 |
| 15 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | MIA | 105 | 13 | 101 |
| 16 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | NYJ | 124 | 15 | 93 |
| 17 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 102 | 10 | 89 |
| 18 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 184 | 20 | 153 |
| 19 | CJ Stroud | QB | HOU | 245 | 26 | 196 |
| 20 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 244 | 25 | 173 |
As I alluded to upfront, I think quarterbacks are broken into clear tiers. For me, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are the #1 and #2 options this season. Hurts was a fantasy monster a year ago (25.6 FPPG) and he did this despite the Eagles having the 4th lowest passing rate in the NFL (50.3% of plays were passing attempts). Hurts’ mobility makes him an elite difference maker, which is a theme amongst all mobile quarterbacks.
Why am I so high on Lamar Jackson? Well, look at what Eric DeCosta and company did this offseason:
- Hired Todd Monken as Offensive Coordinator; during Monken’s stint in Tampa Bay, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston combined to throw for 320.3 passing yards per game (5th most in NFL history). Monken’s offenses have traditionally been fast paced (Baltimore ranked 26th in seconds per play last season) and pass heavy. Even at Georgia, Monken deployed lots of quarterback-friendly concepts including play action bootlegs, read options, and crossing routes. Jackson’s passing ceiling is substantially higher this ceiling than at any point in his career.
- In addition to Monken, the Ravens drastically overhauled their receiving room. Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., and Nelson Agholor were all added during the offseason to go along with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Likely. Baltimore also has one of the best offensive lines in the league.
- Jackson also gives you a terrific rushing floor and as we’ve seen from other mobile quarterbacks, this makes them significantly less dependent on passing TDs (where one TD = 100 passing yards), which quarterbacks are usually reliant on. Quarterback rushing yards are worth 2.5x passing yards as well. This stat from Ryan Heath provides great insight into how Monken’s scheme design should also make the running aspect of Jackson’s game more explosive as well:
To put this into perspective, if the Ravens increase their pass play rate to 58% (would have ranked 17th last season) and increase their pace of play to 10th fastest (matches Monken’s historical numbers), that should net the Ravens ~640 pass attempts. Last season, Baltimore had 488. That is an increase of about 9 throws per game and, if Jackson stays healthy this season and plays all 17 games, he’ll nearly double his passing attempts.
Jackson was QB4 on a per game basis a year ago, despite not being in an offense built for fantasy production. Even if Jackson’s passing / rushing efficiency from last year was identical, but his volume matched our projections, he would have finished as QB1. I think there is a legitimate argument to be made for Jackson to be drafted over Jalen Hurts this year.
I think there’s a noticeable gap between Hurts/Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, QB3 on our list. Warren Sharp’s team at Sharp Football Stats dropped some great insight onto the Chiefs offense from last season. The Chiefs last season had an RZ conversion rate (RZ drives into TDs) of over 70%. Since 2010, 14 other teams have hit a mark that high and in the following season, all of those teams lowered their efficiency by an average of 14.8%.
This is Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about, but ironically the 2018 Chiefs were part of those 14 teams above. Considering Mahomes’ TD volume last season (41 passing) and the fact that nearly 40% of his fantasy points came from passing TDs (compared to 22.9% for Hurts and 28.0% for Jackson), I expect Mahomes to regress this upcoming season. He’s still too elite and gets too much volume to far a lot, but he’s not in my top 2.
The next wave I view relatively similarly: Josh Allen tore his UCL in Week 9 and from an effectiveness standpoint, wasn’t the same QB after the injury. That being said, Allen still finished as QB3 on a points per game basis and was in a different stratosphere fantasy wise if he had stayed healthy. Justin Fields exploded onto the scene and had some insane fantasy performances down the stretch. While Patrick Mahomes had 38.28% of his fantasy points come from passing touchdowns, Justin Fields had just 37.79% of his fantasy points come from touchdowns in general, yet he still finished as QB6 despite playing in just 15 games. Fields’ rushing ability more than mitigates his deficiencies in the passing game, although the acquisition of DJ Moore is certainly a boost for Fields’ value.
I do think Justin Herbert is in that same tier as well. Herbert was QB11 last season, but he suffered an injury early in the season, had Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Rashawn Slater consistently injured, and had one of the lowest aDOTs amongst qualified quarterbacks. With Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator, this team should take off. In prior seasons, Herbert has been a fantasy monster despite not offering rushing upside. Expect his aDOT to significantly increase and with a healthy receiving corps, his TD production should increase as well.
The final quarterback in that tier? Anthony Richardson. I am sky high on Richardson’s upside this season, in large part because of the historical success we’ve seen in fantasy from mobile quarterbacks. Just last season, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, and Daniel Jones all finished in the top-10 on a per game basis. Richardson’s ADP is criminally low and his head coach is Shane Steichen, who was the architect of Philadelphia’s elite offense a year ago and helped guide Justin Herbert to an incredible rookie season.
A few bonus notes:
- Geno Smith is another name I’m bullish about; while 38.11% of Smith’s fantasy points came off TDs last season, he did leave some meat on the bone. To tap into Warren Sharp’s insights again, the Seahawks only scored a TD on 48.3% of their red zone drives. 81.2% of teams who scored at a below 50% rate came back the following season and increased their red zone conversion rate by 12.6% (on average). The Seahawks threw at an extremely high rate inside the 10 and 5 last year as well. One final stat from Sharp? Since 2000, 91.3% of teams that relied on scoring from long range to the degree of the Seahawks last season (alongside Las Vegas and New England) came back the following year and scored a higher rate of their TDs from inside the red zone, with 68% scoring more red zone TDs overall with an average increase of nine touchdowns. Even if Smith’s long-distance TDs decline, he should see a massive uptick in red zone efficiency and given Seattle’s passing volume at the goal line, the fantasy upside is enormous (remember this for DK Metcalf as well).
- I think Derek Carr is a really underrated fantasy option. Carr finished as QB21 last season despite sitting out the final few games and, as noted above with Seattle, below average red zone production. When evaluating Carr’s game log, however, you see lots of room for improvement. Carr scored less than 3 fantasy points in two games last season; if you remove those three from the sample, Carr averaged 17.6 FPPG, which extrapolated over a full season, would have ranked as QB9. Carr has consistently been in the QB12-20 range over his career and is due for some TD regression as well, playing a weaker schedule with some poor defenses. I don’t think the gap between Carr (QB12 on my rankings) and Jared Goff (QB18) is significant at all; to be honest, I think any of those players can go in any order. To me, Carr has the clearest path to positive regression, while some other names (Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins) are obvious candidates for negative regression.
- Speaking of Dak Prescott, I’m significantly less bullish on him than the consensus, in large part because of the Sharp stat we referenced earlier about red zone efficiency. Prescott, in my opinion, hit his ceiling last season in terms of per game output because of elite red zone efficiency and an offensive coordinator (Kellen Moore) who embraced modern passing concepts. Now, with Mike McCarthy/Brian Schottenheimer calling the plays and Dalton Schultz gone to Houston, is it reasonable to expect the Cowboys to be as good in the red zone? 43.07% of Prescott’s fantasy points came from TDs last season as well; the only QB who was more TD dependent was Brock Purdy. Despite throwing 23 TDs in 12 games (an elite ratio), Prescott still only scored 19.5+ FP in 33% of his starts. I think he’s overdrafted and while I don’t think he’s worthy of going undrafted, given where I rank him relative to ADP, I’m likely never to get him.
Running Backs
| RUNNING BACKS | ESPN Rank | ESPN Pos. Rank | ADP | |||
| 1 | Tony Pollard | RB | DAL | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Nick Chubb | RB | CLE | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Josh Jacobs | RB | LV | 19 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | 12 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 10 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 47 | 17 | 40 |
| 9 | Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Aaron Jones | RB | GB | 34 | 15 | 35 |
| 11 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 32 | 13 | 37 |
| 12 | Miles Sanders | RB | CAR | 50 | 19 | 59 |
| 13 | Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | 29 | 10 | 25 |
| 14 | James Cook | RB | BUF | 63 | 26 | 66 |
| 15 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 20 | 9 | 26 |
| 16 | James Conner | RB | ARI | 54 | 23 | 55 |
| 17 | Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | JAX | 30 | 11 | 30 |
| 18 | Rachaad White | RB | TB | 51 | 20 | 54 |
| 19 | Ken Walker III | RB | SEA | 46 | 16 | 52 |
| 20 | Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | 75 | 27 | 71 |
| 21 | D’Andre Swift | RB | PHI | 90 | 34 | 85 |
| 22 | Dameon Pierce | RB | HOU | 33 | 14 | 48 |
| 23 | Alexander Mattison | RB | MIN | 53 | 22 | 61 |
| 24 | Najee Harris | RB | PIT | 31 | 12 | 33 |
| 25 | Cam Akers | RB | LAR | 61 | 24 | 70 |
| 26 | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 48 | 18 | 53 |
| 27 | Dalvin Cook | RB | NYJ | 78 | 30 | 77 |
| 28 | J.K. Dobbins | RB | BAL | 77 | 29 | 83 |
| 29 | AJ Dillon | RB | GB | 88 | 32 | 96 |
| 30 | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 52 | 21 | 51 |
| 31 | Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | 87 | 31 | 94 |
| 32 | Jerick McKinnon | RB | KC | 130 | 44 | 127 |
| 33 | Isiah Pacheco | RB | KC | 62 | 25 | 74 |
| 34 | Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | 162 | 48 | 155 |
| 35 | Jamaal Williams | RB | NO | 91 | 35 | 113 |
| 36 | Antonio Gibson | RB | WAS | 113 | 39 | 112 |
| 37 | Jeff Wilson Jr. | RB | MIA | 110 | 36 | 138 |
| 38 | Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | WAS | 89 | 33 | 102 |
It is probably a huge surprise to see Tony Pollard #1 on this list; he’s ranked as RB7 on ESPN and his ADP is RB8. However, I think he’s significantly underpriced and, as a result, under drafted. Pollard is a prime example of not falling into the trap of ESPN’s rankings. I would have zero hesitancy taking him in the top-5 of any fantasy draft.
My optimism of Pollard is based on a few reasons. First, he’s the clear bell cow in this offense with Ezekiel Elliott gone and Rico Dowdle / Deuce Vaughn serving as the primary backups. Pollard is a terrific pass catcher and won’t come off the field much. During Mike McCarthy’s final season calling plays with the Green Bay Packers, he deployed much less of a timeshare than Kellen Moore has in recent years. Take this for instance: if Dallas runs the ball the same number of times last season (462) and Pollard gets 70% of carries (an average mark for an RB1), he would have ~320 carries, which would have ranked 3rd in the NFL last season. An increase of ~130 carries, on around 5.0 yards per carry, would net Pollard an additional 65 fantasy points alone simply from volume. That isn’t to mention more receiving opportunities and red zone touches simply from being on the field more. Pollard was more TD reliant than other running backs on average (28.94% of his fantasy points came from TDs, RB average was 22.68%), but Pollard displayed elite explosion (9.33% of his rushing attempts went for 20+ yards) and his volume was extremely low. The next highest scoring RB who didn’t have 200 carries was James Conner, who finished as RB18. Pollard’s volume increase alone will make him a fantasy force, even if his TD efficiency declines (and, because of the volume increase his TD volume may remain constant). I think Pollard as RB8 is his absolute floor and I see massive upside here; every running back who had 200 carries and 60 catches last season finished as a top-10 running back. Considering Pollard finished inside the top-10 last season on 193 carries and 39 catches, he clearly possesses an elite ceiling.
To me, the next bunch of running backs are relatively even with each other (Nick Chubb, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson). It is probably extremely surprising to see Austin Ekeler as my RB9, but also for Rhamondre Stevenson to be ranked ahead of him.
Stevenson’s volume last season is extremely underrated; he cleared our 200 carry and 60 reception thresholds, despite not seeing maximum usage until Week 5. From Week 5 on (prior to his late season injury), he was a fantasy monster. Stevenson had 88 targets last season and the Patriots didn’t do anything substantial to upgrade the receiving room, simply bringing in Juju Smith-Schuster to replace Jakobi Meyers. In all likelihood, Bill O’Brien’s offense will push the ball down field more which should siphon away targets from Stevenson, but the potential volume is impossible to ignore. Stevenson could easily be the #2 target on the Patriots’ offense and, according to our red zone stats from Sharp, New England is due more than any team in the NFL for enhanced red zone success. Maybe Ezekiel Elliott vultures some goal line work, but Stevenson earned 59% of the team’s rush attempts inside the 10 last season and 58% inside the 5. Also, just 14.45% of Stevenson’s FPs came from touchdowns last year, well below league average. The only other running back who finished inside the top-10 despite <20% of fantasy points coming from touchdowns was Aaron Jones, who caught 59 passes. Stevenson’s pass catching upside, combined with positive red zone regression, gives him one of the highest ceilings amongst RBs.
Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler at RB9 seems confusing, especially after the Stevenson writeup. Simply put, I think Ekeler hit his absolute ceiling last year and he was due for significant positive regression in the TD market (which he hit, accumulating 13 rushing TDs and 5 receiving TDs). I’ve already mentioned my anticipation around the Chargers throwing the ball significantly more down the field, which does not bode well for Ekeler’s targets. Also, context is important here. Keenan Allen played in 10 games last season (and left early in two of them). Mike Williams played in 13. Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter combined for 154 targets last season. Ekeler was clearly the team’s top receiving option in many games last season and, at minimum, was #2 in the heavy majority. For such a pass-heavy offense, it would have been bad if he didn’t hit that volume of targets (127) and catches (107).
This year, how can you project that volume to remain the same? While I expect the Chargers to remain pass happy, 711 pass attempts is… a lot. Also, there are more healthy mouths to feed, including new rookie Quentin Johnston. In games where both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams played last season, Ekeler only had 4.2 targets per game, compared to 9.0 targets per game with either Allen or Williams. Ekeler’s rushing volume wasn’t substantial (60% of RB carries), but his red zone efficiency was insane, converting 75% of his rushing attempts inside the 5 for TDs. Only four players had higher TD dependency for their fantasy points last season. Given the anticipated TD regression and significant decrease in pass catching volume, I think other players have a notably higher ceiling than Ekeler.
My running backs 1-11 are a tier above the rest; if you can land two of my top-11 and play the handcuff game, I think you’re in great shape. Taking a swing RB in the middle rounds (aka one who should be the starter in the backfield but lacks upside) is a good usage of assets. Here are a few other names to note:
- Miles Sanders became a total non-pass catching threat with the Philadelphia Eagles, but he just signed a large contract with the Carolina Panthers and it’s immediately tough to see who dominates the target share there. Adam Thielen is ineffective and slower now. Jonathan Mingo is talented, but unproven. DJ Chark has been inconsistent. The Panthers’ RB coach is Duce Staley, who was Sanders’ position coach when he entered the league and caught 50 passes in 2019. Sanders’ volume should increase as well; Eagles’ running backs had only 368 carries last season (by contrast, Derrick Henry had 349 alone). Even if that number only goes up to 380 and Sanders earns 75% of them, he’ll have 285 carries and the potential for 40-50 catches. That’s a pretty strong median projection, but his ceiling could be even higher. Sanders was extremely TD dependent last season, but with higher anticipated volume and pass catching upside, that should outweigh any expected regression in red zone efficiency (where his volume should increase as well, without Jalen Hurts).
- James Cook is another name I’m bullish on; the Bills parted ways with Devin Singletary this off-season and only brought in Damien Harris. Do we really think Harris will play significant snaps over Cook? I don’t, and Cook’s pass catching upside in particular is fascinating. Only 16.7% of Cook’s fantasy points came from TDs last season (low) and there are 196 RB carries and 52 RB targets to replace. Cook won’t get all of them, but even a 70% split of Buffalo’s overall rushing attempts gets him ~200 carries, along with 50-60 catch upside. That ratio ironically puts him squarely in play for a top-10 RB finish. That’s his ceiling, but his production on a per touch basis is incredible because of his big play ability.
- Two more names to target in the mid rounds? James Conner, who has been a fantasy monster without Kyler Murray and has zero competition in Arizona’s backfield, and Rachaad White, who should see massive volume with the Buccaneers this year. White, in particular, intrigues me because I think he has RB1 upside; Tampa Bay’s play splits are likely to skew more balanced with fewer dump offs to RBs this year, but White still had 50 receptions last season. Given he should see a significant increase in rush attempts and Leonard Fournette’s 83 targets are gone, White easily has 200 rush attempt / 60 catch upside.
- As you’ll see in my rankings, a lot of the names I’m lower on (Dameon Pierce, Najee Harris, Isiah Pacheco) all have a similar thing in common: they are volume dependent running backs with little pass catching upside. There are a few other backs in that mold as well (Alexander Mattison, Cam Akers, Khalil Herbert, J.K. Dobbins) that I all have bunched in the same area. All of these RBs need 15-20 carries per week and ample red zone touches to pay off consistently. Pierce was consistently taken off the field last season in passing situations, Najee Harris is an inefficient runner who averaged a meager 0.97 FPs per touch last season despite earning >50% of the team’s RZ carries inside the 10. Isiah Pacheco averaged 0.87 FPs per touch due to having 13 total catches. And, the same is true for Akers (0.82 FP per touch), Herbert (0.98 FP per touch), and Dobbins (0.96 FP per touch). Herbert and Dobbins also have to deal with mobile QBs who are likely stealing goal line work. Alexander Mattison is interesting and I don’t think he’s horrible value from where he’s priced, but he’s also Najee Harris 2.0; he averaged 3.8 YPC last season, had just 18 total targets, and only was so productive on a FP per touch basis because 40.7% of his FPs came from TDs (and he had zero carries for 20+ yards). I don’t love taking running backs who, even as the clear leader of a team’s backfield, are still reliant on rushing volume and touchdowns for performance. It’s why how Aaron Jones, even in a bit of a murkier timeshare, is still exponentially more valuable to me because of his pass catching upside.
- Speaking of Jones, he’ll be my last name here: I love Aaron Jones this season. I think a lot of people will be scared off by AJ Dillon, but Jones has a terrific floor because of his pass catching ability. Green Bay has to replace ~44% of their targets from a year ago and the only new additions were Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave. Obviously, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs will get a lot of them, but Jones isn’t in a position to cede targets; in fact, he’s in a position to gain. And, Jones had just 17% of his fantasy points come from touchdowns a year ago and didn’t score a single red zone TD despite 9 carries inside the 10. He’s due for TD regression and has a high pass catching floor. Plus, handcuffing him with AJ Dillon gives you two viable standalone running backs each week, if needed.
Just a quick disclaimer: I did not rank many handcuffs above, but I would strongly encourage taking three “lead” backs and two handcuffs if in a 15-round league (for 16, could go four lead backs and two handcuffs). I’ll use my own draft as an example: I took Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, James Cook, and Javonte Williams, then selected AJ Dillon and Damien Harris later on. I know control two full backfields (Buffalo, Green Bay) to ensure I have two healthy RBs each week at minimum, but also have two other lead backs. I should be, in theory, operating from a position of strength as the season progresses to make trades.
Wide Receivers
| WIDE RECEIVERS | ESPN Rank | ESPN Pos. Rank | ADP | |||
| 1 | Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Cooper Kupp | WR | LAR | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 4 | Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | 13 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Davante Adams | WR | LV | 11 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 18 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 43 | 21 | 39 |
| 9 | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 16 | 8 | 17 |
| 10 | DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | 21 | 11 | 24 |
| 11 | Mike Evans | WR | TB | 58 | 23 | 63 |
| 12 | A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 17 | 9 | 18 |
| 13 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 15 | 7 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 22 | 12 | 23 |
| 15 | DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 35 | 16 | 29 |
| 16 | Christian Watson | WR | GB | 37 | 18 | 50 |
| 17 | Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 18 | Calvin Ridley | WR | JAX | 36 | 17 | 38 |
| 19 | Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | 57 | 24 | 64 |
| 20 | Amari Cooper | WR | CLE | 41 | 19 | 42 |
| 21 | Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | IND | 84 | 38 | 86 |
| 22 | Chris Olave | WR | NO | 25 | 15 | 28 |
| 23 | Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 60 | 27 | 65 |
| 24 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | 45 | 23 | 47 |
| 25 | Marquise Brown | WR | ARI | 66 | 29 | 81 |
| 26 | Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 65 | 28 | 56 |
| 27 | Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | 23 | 13 | 36 |
| 28 | Gabe Davis | WR | BUF | 99 | 44 | 118 |
| 29 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | TEN | 59 | 24 | 46 |
| 30 | Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 44 | 22 | 67 |
| 31 | Brandon Aiyuk | WR | SF | 67 | 30 | 75 |
| 32 | Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 98 | 43 | 116 |
| 33 | Juju Smith-Schuster | WR | NE | 108 | 47 | 115 |
| 34 | Jahan Dotson | WR | WAS | 85 | 37 | 99 |
| 35 | Drake London | WR | ATL | 68 | 31 | 80 |
| 36 | DJ Moore | WR | CHI | 42 | 20 | 58 |
| 37 | Jakobi Meyers | WR | LV | 107 | 48 | 119 |
| 38 | Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 96 | 41 | 111 |
| 39 | Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | 79 | 33 | 72 |
| 40 | George Pickens | WR | PIT | 82 | 35 | 81 |
| 41 | Allen Lazard | WR | NYJ | 172 | 61 | 157 |
| 42 | Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 69 | 32 | 97 |
| 43 | Christian Kirk | WR | JAX | 80 | 34 | 84 |
| 44 | Brandin Cooks | WR | DAL | 81 | 35 | 90 |
| 45 | Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | 181 | 70 | 209 |
| 46 | Michael Thomas | WR | NO | 101 | 46 | 103 |
| 47 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 83 | 36 | 95 |
| 48 | Rondale Moore | WR | ARI | 118 | 52 | 132 |
| 49 | Zay Jones | WR | JAX | 174 | 63 | 179 |
| 50 | Adam Thielen | WR | CAR | 122 | 56 | 144 |
| 51 | Van Jefferson | WR | LAR | 180 | 69 | N/A |
| 52 | Romeo Doubs | WR | GB | 179 | 68 | 170 |
| 53 | Jonathan Mingo | WR | CAR | 175 | 64 | N/A |
I promise I’m not trying to be contrarian with these rankings, but yes, that is Justin Jefferson as WR5. Jefferson had insane volume last season and truthfully, I’m surprised to see how much of a consensus 1.1 he is. Personally, I would take Tyreek Hill 1.1. Jefferson’s ceiling is not as high as Hill’s, Cooper Kupp’s, JaMarr Chase’s, or Stefon Diggs’ in my opinion, and the numbers back it up. With a healthy Tua Tagovailoa last season, Hill outscored Jefferson on a per game basis. Kupp did too. Diggs did as well with a healthy Josh Allen. Chase did not, but we’ve seen his ceiling when fully healthy. My favorite fantasy article written every year is Scott Barrett’s 69 Fantasy Stats – check out his entire article, but also the part on Justin Jefferson and his volume. It’s enlightening. Jefferson isn’t a bad pick and I have him #6 overall on my entire rankings; I just think you can get a higher ceiling at #1.
I’m so bullish on Tyreek Hill in large part because his season last year was fairly similar to Jefferson’s, yet he left a ton of points on the table. Hill had only 12.31% of his fantasy points come off touchdowns last year (Jefferson was at 13.02%), but Hill’s aDOT (12.39) and target share (31.84%) was higher than Jefferson’s. Hill also had nearly 400 unrealized air yards; having high unrealized air yards makes sense for high aDOT, but it also illustrates the big play upside Hill has that isn’t dependent upon volume. Assuming Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy this season, I don’t think a wide receiver has a higher ceiling than Hill. When you’re drafting inside the top-7, you should be aiming for the highest ceiling, not the safest floor. Hill gives you the highest ceiling and it’s not like he’s a risky pick: who else is catching a substantial amount of passes in Miami besides Hill and Jaylen Waddle?
Keenan Allen is a name that pops for me in a major way; we already talked about the the Chargers offense this year, and Allen’s volume has the potential to be massive. Extrapolated over a full healthy season, Allen would have had 151 targets last year (5th most in NFL) and he averaged 1.84 fantasy points per target. That would have led Allen to finish as WR7 last year despite being above average in TD dependency. Now, Allen is entering a year where he’ll primarily be operating out of the slot in a Kellen Moore offense, the same alignment we’ve seen CeeDee Lamb explode in over the past few seasons. The TD regression is there, the volume is there, and it’s in a top-tier offense. Outside of Tony Pollard, I’m not sure there’s a better value pick on the board in the top-40 than Keenan Allen. His ADP of WR19 is ridiculously low.
I’m also really bullish on Mike Evans. A lot of people will point out that without the massive 48.7 fantasy point performance in Week 16, he would have finished significantly lower (probably in WR30 range). However, that is a faulty argument, because Evans was due all season. His regression came in one giant dump rather than slow and steady. Evans had average TD dependency last season (15.79%), yet averaged 2.93 fantasy points per catch, a mark similar to Brandon Aiyuk (21.07% FPs from TDs), Stefon Diggs (20.55%), Allen Lazard (20.59%) and Tee Higgins (18.82%). Evans boasted an elite aDOT (12.90), yet only had a 17.8% target share, a number which will surely increase this year. The Buccaneers have to replace 172 WR targets this season. Yes, their passing volume will decrease, but check out the upside that still remains for Evans:
- If Tampa Bay runs 63.5 plays per game next season (league average) and they throw on 60% of plays, they will have 647 pass attempts, down from 751 last year.
- Still, who earns 647 targets? The Buccaneers lost Russell Gage, Julio Jones, Cameron Brate, Leonard Fournette, Scotty Miller, and Breshad Perriman. Their top targets this year are Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton, Rachaad White, and Trey Palmer. Do we really think Mike Evans and Chris Godwin don’t have the upside to assume even a 25% target share each?
- Evans with a 25% target share gets to 162 targets, which would have ranked 4th most in the NFL last season. Even a 20% target share gets him to 130 targets and the only player to finish beyond WR21 with that many targets was Diontae Johnson, who inexplicably didn’t score a TD.
- It’s totally feasible for Mike Evans to be a target monster this season and if he matches his 1.77 FP per target from last year at 140 targets, he would have finished as WR10. Evans also had 514 unrealized air yards last season; his high aDOT assumes a high number, but 514 was still high. Evans is due for potential yardage regression along with huge volume projections. His underlying metrics are strong, he’s been a consistent fantasy force, and has never had a season with <1,000 receiving yards.
There are a lot of other wide receivers I’m bullish on, but the last name I’ll detail is Christian Watson. If you’re looking for a wide receiver with top-10 upside at the position, look no further than Watson. Watson was very TD dependent last season (25.59%), but he’s a big play, home run threat. Watson boasted an elite 13.80 aDOT last year and got some rushing work. The Green Bay Packers have to replace 239 targets, or 44% of last season’s total. Assuming the same number of pass attempts, if Watson earns a 25.5% target share, he’ll be at 138 targets. Watson’s TD regression will be offset by a massive increase in volume and given his big play ability, he has monstrous upside. It should also be noted that under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have tended to force feed certain players inside the red zone. Maybe that changes without Aaron Rodgers, but I anticipate Watson to be the go-to red zone threat here as well.
I’m also much higher on Diontae Johnson and Michael Pittman Jr. than the consensus. Diontae Johnson is due for obvious TD regression after not scoring a single TD a year ago despite earning 147 total targets and 28.6% of the Steelers’ targets in the red zone. Pittman’s aDOT wasn’t great last year, but he’s the obvious #1 option in a Colts offense that I’m a believer in. Pittman had 141 targets last season and if (big if) Indianapolis matches their passing volume from a year ago, they have to replace 160 targets with their only addition being Josh Downs. The Colts will likely run the ball significantly more, but the point remains that there is more opportunity for Pittman to earn even more volume and only 11.09% of his FPs came from TDs.
As for receivers I’m lower on? CeeDee Lamb is one; the Cowboys’ anticipated red zone regression is one reason why, but also how the Cowboys didn’t lose any WR targets from a year ago and added Brandin Cooks. Lamb could easily see fewer targets and was extremely efficient in the red zone last season. Assuming a constant point per target, even one fewer target per week for Lamb would push his per game average closer to the WR9 to WR15 range.
The numbers show I’m lower on Chris Olave, although I feel like this is much more of a reflection of other WRs I like rather than Olave. Olave is extremely talented, and he easily could be a top-10 WR. For me, I struggle to see massive upside in volume. The Saints only “lost” 66 WR targets from a season ago and Michael Thomas should be fully healthy this season. Olave only had 12% of his fantasy points come from touchdowns, boasted an elite aDOT (14.17), and had over 600 unrealized air yards. He’s due for huge regression, but the volume is what scares me for an offense that is slow paced and doesn’t throw the ball at a high rate. Still, if there’s one player I think I misjudged, it’s Olave. Even I feel like my ranking of him is too low.
I’ll quickly highlight Drake London and DJ Moore, two players I have ranked in my mid 30s. As players, I’m big fans of both. As fantasy targets? Not so much. Both will warrant large target shares as #1 options in their offenses, but these were the two most run-dominant offenses from a year ago. A 25-30% target share in these offenses is not that valuable; the Atlanta Falcons threw the ball 415 times last season in total. For reference, the Green Bay Packers have to replace 239 targets. A 25% target share in Atlanta yields only 103 targets; for reference, in the most pass happy offense last season, Mike Evans had a 17.8% target share and was targeted 127 times. Both London and Moore offer such little upside that they would need to be historically efficient on a per target basis to pay off.
Some final notes? Don’t be afraid of the bad offenses! Mike Evans and Michael Pittman Jr. already got highlights, but also Marquise Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Jakobi Meyers are all strong depth options as well. All should see high volumes of targets and, in the case of Smith-Schuster and Meyers, are entering offenses due for positive TD regression. This doesn’t mean to avoid good offenses either; Gabe Davis is one guy I think is really undervalued this season. Davis had one of the lowest catch rates in the league last year, but his underlying metrics (aDOT, unrealized air yards) shows he’s a big play threat who doesn’t need ample volume.
Other names I’m lower on? Deebo Samuel (in large part because of a clustered pass catching situation in San Francisco that may yield lower target shares for a team likely to be running the ball a lot), Mike Williams (much better best ball option than season long), DeAndre Hopkins (see: Drake London, DJ Moore) and George Pickens (overvalued based on production and metrics).
These rankings were developed before Cooper Kupp’s injury. I still think he’s worthy of a first-round pick, although he should be knocked down a minor peg. Still, no player offers greater per game upside and consistency than Kupp. But betting on his health, along with that of Matthew Stafford’s is risky, especially when the health concerns have already popped up.
Also, if you want a bet on which receiver will lead the league in TDs? I’m taking DK Metcalf (+2500). We mentioned how Seattle is due for positive red zone regression and Metcalf earned 40.3% of the team’s red zone targets yet scored on just 18.5% of opportunities. His total red zone volume was 3rd highest in the league. It’s why I’m so high on him for fantasy, but I think the betting market offers tremendous value his way as well.
Tight Ends
| TIGHT ENDS | ESPN Rank | ESPN Pos. Rank | ADP | |||
| 1 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 38 | 2 | 32 |
| 3 | TJ Hockenson | TE | MIN | 49 | 3 | 41 |
| 4 | Darren Waller | TE | NYG | 64 | 4 | 45 |
| 5 | Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 92 | 8 | 82 |
| 6 | George Kittle | TE | SF | 70 | 5 | 49 |
| 7 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 72 | 7 | 62 |
| 8 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 71 | 6 | 57 |
| 9 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 187 | 20 | 174 |
| 10 | Zach Ertz | TE | ARI | 116 | 13 | 133 |
| 11 | Greg Dulcich | TE | DEN | 140 | 17 | 169 |
| 12 | Chig Okonkwo | TE | TEN | 139 | 16 | 161 |
| 13 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 94 | 10 | 91 |
| 14 | Tyler Higbee | TE | LAR | 133 | 14 | 121 |
| 15 | Evan Engram | TE | JAX | 93 | 9 | 76 |
| 16 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 214 | 22 | 193 |
| 17 | Hayden Hurst | TE | CAR | 259 | 29 | 217 |
| 18 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 134 | 15 | 135 |
| 19 | Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | 95 | 11 | 108 |
| 20 | Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 248 | 23 | 222 |
If there is a position to punt this year, it is tight end. It feels like there are three prominent schools of thought when it comes to tight ends this year. The first is to take Travis Kelce Round 1 (if you can). The second is pass on Kelce but get Mark Andrews in Round 3. The third is to punt.
For me, I think the best solution is to punt, but I think people are punting on the wrong tight end targets. Top scoring tight ends usually rely on volume and running routes to get there; touchdowns are highly variable from year to year and if you’re the 4th or 5th receiving option on a team and are only running routes on 50-55% of pass plays, where is the volume upside? Routes run is an extremely important tight end metric.
For me, I don’t think Travis Kelce is worth a top-4 pick this year and I wouldn’t take him above any of the top wide receivers, in large part because I don’t think the gap between him and TE2 will be as massive this season. Last year, Kelce scored 18.6 FPPG and George Kittle was #2 at 13.4. However, context is important. Kelce, as part of Kansas City’s historically efficient red zone attack, ate up thirty (30) red zone targets and converted 33.3% of those into touchdowns. That was about average for tight ends, but to hit it on such volume is impressive. Simply put, Kelce was a monster in the red zone, which is the most obvious area for team regression. 22.8% of his fantasy points came from touchdowns and his aDOT (7.13) wasn’t very impressive. He’s still the obvious TE1, but I’d be stunned if he matched his 18.6 per game mark a year ago.
Meanwhile, Mark Andrews is an obvious candidate for positive regression. Only 15.75% of Andrews’ fantasy points came from touchdowns last season and he boasted a higher aDOT (9.78) and comparable target share to Kelce. Andrews nearly mirrored Kelce’s efficiency in the red zone, but the Ravens weren’t good from there overall and are an identified positive regression candidate. We know of the passing upside in Baltimore’s offense and Andrews did a rare task for tight ends, which is have unrealized air yards. If Andrews increases his per game scoring from 12.7 to 14.0, and Kelce goes from 18.6 to 17.0, that’s a difference of 3 points, the same difference between WR1 and WR4 last year, except they scored 21.7 to 18.9. That’s a significantly greater amount of fantasy points; it’s why I have that first receiver tier all above Kelce.
I think you could also justify taking TJ Hockenson in the mid rounds; I have him as my #37 overall player, the problem is he’s slated to go right around where I like a lot of RB/WR value (James Cook, James Conner, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., etc.). Because of that, I’d almost argue it’s worth passing on Hockenson in favor of those other guys.
After the top-3, I think the next group of tight ends compose a tier. One name to highlight? Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth would be my ideal TE target if you’re afraid of fully punting the position. Freiermuth had 98 targets last season, an above average aDOT, and only 8.1% of his fantasy points came from touchdowns, the 2nd lowest mark amongst 30 tight ends (only Logan Thomas was lower). Despite that, Freiermuth finished as TE7 last season and earned 20.7% of the Steelers’ red zone targets. Yes, he does block a lot (48% of pass plays), but Pittsburgh drafted Darnell Washington, who is in theory almost a sixth offensive lineman. This could push Freiermuth out in the slot more, as I don’t foresee Allen Robinson soaking up a significant amount of snaps.
Personally, I think Freiermuth or a full punt is better value than targets like George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, or Kyle Pitts. I like Darren Waller too, but I worry about his volume capping his ceiling. If he’s TE5 (which I think is his ceiling) and is scoring just 2-3 more points per week than Freiermuth, is that more valuable than taking better WR/RB depth and waiting for Freiermuth 2-3 rounds later? I’d argue no, but I wouldn’t hesitate for Waller if he slides a bit.
For the full punt option, I particularly love how guys like David Njoku, Tyler Higbee, Evan Engram, and Cole Kmet are rated, primarily because I think it’s led to them all being over drafted. I think Sam LaPorta, Zach Ertz, Greg Dulcich, and Chig Okonkwo are all better options. LaPorta has the cleanest path to being the #2 target on his team this year, which could yield ~80-90 targets. Tyler Conklin was the lowest scoring tight end last season who had 80+ targets, and it was because of a low aDOT (6.83) and poor red zone efficiency. Zach Ertz was actually TE6 on a per game basis, but is recovering from a torn ACL with a highly questionable quarterback situation. Still, the volume is hard to ignore and his aDOT (7.94) was above average, along with being the leading red zone threat. Greg Dulcich was 3rd amongst TEs in aDOT (11.35), not reliant on touchdowns (13.9% of his FPs came from touchdowns), and the Broncos are already thin at wide receiver due to injuries. Lastly, Chig Okonkwo ran a route on 63% of passing plays last year, had an above average aDOT (7.63), earned 18.5% of the team’s red zone targets, and could absorb a much bigger role without Austin Hooper (who earned 60 targets last season). Only Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Hunter Henry had more catches go for 20+ yards, yet Okonkwo had the highest percentage (43.75%) of his catches go for that many.
Quick notes on the tight ends I’m lower on:
- David Njoku was 3rd on the Browns in targets and earned 28.6% of the team’s red zone targets a year ago; he’s due for some TD regression, but the underlying metrics aren’t exciting. He ran routes only 50% of passing plays and totaled just a 15.5% target share, a mark which may decline now that Elijah Moore is on the roster. His aDOT (6.53) was poor as well. I like him the most out of this next wave, but he seems to be more of a TD dependent option than we think; luckily, he is due for regression.
- Tyler Higbee soaked up a ton of targets last season (108) and had the 3rd highest target share amongst tight ends. He should have been better in the red zone, but still only finished as TE6. Why? Because he’s ultra-reliant on volume. No tight end had a lower aDOT than Higbee (3.03), and no tight end had an ADOT less than 4.91 who started last season in our statistics. If Higbee’s volume declines, his value plummets.
- Evan Engram had a 39.2 fantasy point performance against Tennessee last season. If you remove that performance and replace it with his average, he finishes as TE10 instead of TE7 (hence also how bunched up this back-end/middle group is). Engram’s aDOT (6.27) was below average and he ran routes on just 48% of passing plays. Jacksonville only has 81 targets to replace this season and will have an available Calvin Ridley to soak up at least that many. Engram is the #4 target on this team at best.
- Cole Kmet had the 4th highest TD dependency last season; if you remove his two 20+ games, his average per game mark would have been around TE20. He was extremely efficient in the red zone, but ran a route on only 50% of snaps and had lowest target per route rate in the top-10 by a considerable margin. He’s an obvious candidate for regression.
| Rank | Name | Position | Team | ESPN Rank | ESPN Pos. Rank | ADP |
| 1 | Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Cooper Kupp | WR | LAR | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 4 | Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | 13 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Tony Pollard | RB | DAL | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Nick Chubb | RB | CLE | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Davante Adams | WR | LV | 11 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Josh Jacobs | RB | LV | 19 | 8 | 19 |
| 13 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 18 | 10 | 21 |
| 14 | Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 43 | 21 | 39 |
| 15 | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 16 | 8 | 17 |
| 16 | Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | 12 | 6 | 9 |
| 17 | Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 10 | 5 | 8 |
| 18 | DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | 21 | 11 | 24 |
| 19 | Mike Evans | WR | TB | 58 | 23 | 63 |
| 20 | A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 17 | 9 | 18 |
| 21 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 15 | 7 | 16 |
| 22 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 47 | 17 | 40 |
| 23 | Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 24 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 28 | 3 | 23 |
| 25 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 39 | 4 | 31 |
| 26 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 22 | 12 | 23 |
| 27 | DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 35 | 16 | 29 |
| 28 | Christian Watson | WR | GB | 37 | 18 | 50 |
| 29 | Aaron Jones | RB | GB | 34 | 14 | 35 |
| 30 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 32 | 13 | 37 |
| 31 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 38 | 2 | 32 |
| 32 | Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 33 | Calvin Ridley | WR | JAX | 36 | 17 | 38 |
| 34 | Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | 57 | 24 | 64 |
| 35 | Amari Cooper | WR | CLE | 41 | 19 | 42 |
| 36 | Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | IND | 84 | 38 | 86 |
| 37 | TJ Hockenson | TE | MIN | 49 | 3 | 41 |
| 38 | Miles Sanders | RB | CAR | 50 | 19 | 59 |
| 39 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 26 | 1 | 13 |
| 40 | Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | 29 | 10 | 25 |
| 41 | James Cook | RB | BUF | 63 | 26 | 66 |
| 42 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 20 | 9 | 26 |
| 43 | James Conner | RB | ARI | 54 | 23 | 55 |
| 44 | Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | JAX | 30 | 11 | 30 |
| 45 | Rachaad White | RB | TB | 51 | 20 | 54 |
| 46 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 27 | 2 | 20 |
| 47 | Justin Fields | QB | CHI | 56 | 7 | 44 |
| 48 | Chris Olave | WR | NO | 25 | 15 | 28 |
| 49 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 55 | 6 | 43 |
| 50 | Ken Walker III | RB | SEA | 46 | 16 | 52 |
| 51 | Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 60 | 27 | 65 |
| 52 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | 45 | 23 | 47 |
| 53 | Marquise Brown | WR | ARI | 66 | 29 | 81 |
| 54 | Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 65 | 28 | 56 |
| 55 | Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | 75 | 27 | 71 |
| 56 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 40 | 5 | 34 |
| 57 | Anthony Richardson | QB | IND | 123 | 14 | 125 |
| 58 | Darren Waller | TE | NYG | 64 | 4 | 45 |
| 59 | D’Andre Swift | RB | PHI | 90 | 34 | 85 |
| 60 | Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | 23 | 13 | 36 |
| 61 | Gabe Davis | WR | BUF | 99 | 44 | 118 |
| 62 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | TEN | 59 | 24 | 46 |
| 63 | Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 92 | 8 | 82 |
| 64 | Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 44 | 22 | 67 |
| 65 | Brandon Aiyuk | WR | SF | 67 | 30 | 75 |
| 66 | Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 98 | 43 | 116 |
| 67 | Juju Smith-Schuster | WR | NE | 108 | 47 | 115 |
| 68 | George Kittle | TE | SF | 70 | 5 | 49 |
| 69 | Dameon Pierce | RB | HOU | 33 | 14 | 48 |
| 70 | Alexander Mattison | RB | MIN | 53 | 23 | 61 |
| 71 | Najee Harris | RB | PIT | 31 | 12 | 33 |
| 72 | Cam Akers | RB | LAR | 61 | 24 | 70 |
| 73 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 72 | 7 | 62 |
| 74 | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 48 | 18 | 53 |
| 75 | Dalvin Cook | RB | NYJ | 78 | 30 | 77 |
| 76 | J.K. Dobbins | RB | BAL | 77 | 29 | 83 |
| 77 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 71 | 6 | 57 |
| 78 | Jahan Dotson | WR | WAS | 85 | 37 | 99 |
| 79 | Drake London | WR | ATL | 68 | 31 | 80 |
| 80 | DJ Moore | WR | CHI | 42 | 20 | 58 |
| 81 | Geno Smith | QB | SEA | 125 | 16 | 122 |
| 82 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 74 | 9 | 60 |
| 83 | Daniel Jones | QB | NYG | 104 | 12 | 114 |
| 84 | Jakobi Meyers | WR | LV | 107 | 48 | 119 |
| 85 | Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 96 | 41 | 111 |
| 86 | Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | 79 | 33 | 72 |
| 87 | George Pickens | WR | PIT | 82 | 35 | 81 |
| 88 | Allen Lazard | WR | NYJ | 172 | 61 | 157 |
| 89 | Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 69 | 32 | 97 |
| 90 | Christian Kirk | WR | JAX | 80 | 34 | 84 |
| 91 | Brandin Cooks | WR | DAL | 81 | 35 | 90 |
| 92 | Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | 181 | 70 | 209 |
| 93 | Michael Thomas | WR | NO | 101 | 46 | 103 |
| 94 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 187 | 20 | 174 |
| 95 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 83 | 36 | 95 |
| 96 | Rondale Moore | WR | ARI | 118 | 52 | 132 |
| 97 | AJ Dillon | RB | GB | 88 | 32 | 96 |
| 98 | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 52 | 21 | 51 |
| 99 | Zach Ertz | TE | ARI | 116 | 13 | 133 |
| 100 | Greg Dulcich | TE | DEN | 140 | 17 | 169 |
| 101 | Khalil Herbert | RB | CHI | 87 | 31 | 94 |
| 102 | Derek Carr | QB | NO | 219 | 22 | 164 |
| 103 | Jerick McKinnon | RB | KC | 130 | 44 | 127 |
| 104 | Zay Jones | WR | JAX | 174 | 63 | 179 |
| 105 | Chig Okonkwo | TE | TEN | 139 | 16 | 161 |
| 106 | Isiah Pacheco | RB | KC | 62 | 25 | 74 |
| 107 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 94 | 10 | 91 |
| 108 | Tyler Higbee | TE | LAR | 133 | 14 | 121 |
| 109 | Evan Engram | TE | JAX | 93 | 9 | 76 |
| 110 | Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 103 | 11 | 87 |
| 111 | Russell Wilson | QB | DEN | 126 | 17 | 139 |
| 112 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | MIA | 105 | 13 | 101 |
| 113 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | NYJ | 124 | 15 | 93 |
| 114 | Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | 162 | 48 | 155 |
| 115 | Jamaal Williams | RB | NO | 91 | 35 | 113 |
| 116 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 102 | 10 | 89 |
| 117 | Adam Thielen | WR | CAR | 122 | 56 | 144 |
| 118 | Van Jefferson | WR | LAR | 180 | 69 | N/A |
| 119 | Romeo Doubs | WR | GB | 179 | 68 | 170 |
| 120 | Jonathan Mingo | WR | CAR | 175 | 64 | N/A |
Fantasy football is a tricky game, primarily because your draft strategy will likely adjust on the fly by how others draft. Leaning into underlying metrics and identifying candidates for positive and negative regression will allow the board to easily come to you. There are some players based on our rankings who we’ll never get, in large part because we’re lower on them than the consensus. It can be overwhelming seeing 200+ names on the board and a 24-hour trip to Waffle House making you sweat on draft night, but breaking down the board into tiers, finding obvious signs of fantasy point explosions, and avoiding some common trips will make it much easier.
Feel free to shoot us any draft questions on our Twitter (@TheChirpSports); we’re happy to dive deeper into some of these rankings and underlying metrics you’re interested in on players we did not do extensive deep dives on!
The Chirp 