The NBA offseason remains almost as great of a spectacle as the on-court performances we see, and the NBA Draft serves as the official start of what serves as a wild, monthlong sprint of news, acquisitions, and roster changes. This year’s class is headlined by 7’5 wunderkind Victor Wembanyama, who seems partially mythological with the way he’s talked about by pundits. Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reported there are people in the NBA who believe Wembanyama can be the best player in the league on both offense and defense by just his third season. You see clips of Wembanyama creating his own shot, slamming down a putback dunk off his own missed 3-PT, and erasing shots at the rim and it’s easy to see why he’s the most hyped draft prospect since LeBron James. After Wembanyama however, there seems to be a clear 2-3 in some order (Scoot Henderson & Brandon Miller), but then, it’s anyone’s guess. Considering the relatively limited amount of teams that hold onto a heavy amount of top-35 picks, expect a lot of trades, especially given the new CBA goes into effect July 1 which could make deals more prohibitive.
When evaluating players, I am a firm believer that individual shot creation is the most valuable skill in the NBA. The one common trait all of the premier players in the league have in common is they’re able to consistently, and effectively, create for themselves and others in the halfcourt. Yet, like all my opinions, I have refined this viewpoint over time. There is some risk in overvaluing the shot creation aspect in buying into players who emerge as volume scorers dependent on difficult shots that offer little in the way of playmaking, defense, and off-ball ability. Recently, we can examine three players who, are talented shot creators, but are also flawed overall players and now pose bloated contracts on their respective team’s cap sheets:
- Jordan Poole (4 years, $128 million): Poole was unplayable at times this postseason, just 12 months removed from being an integral part of the Warriors’ title run due to his dynamic shot creation ability. Poole’s flaws were on extreme degree this postseason; he’s arguably the worst defender in the league, isn’t utilized in an off-ball role, and is an erratic playmaker. With Poole’s shot not falling (and he’s reliant on rather difficult attempts), it was hard to see how he could have a positive impact for the Warriors.
- Tyler Herro (4 years, $120 million): It’s truthfully extremely unfair to critique Tyler Herro, considering he missed nearly the entire postseason with a broken hand. But, isn’t it noteworthy that the Miami Heat, who struggled all year offensively, made it to the NBA Finals despite not having their third leading scorer? Herro is a much better, and consistent, scorer than Poole, but he doesn’t offer the same playmaking upside. Herro isn’t as much of a liability defensively, but he isn’t a positive either; one thing apparent in Miami’s run was how attacking mismatches was nearly impossible except when Duncan Robinson was on the court (and in those situations, Miami often went zone). Herro’s certainly a valuable player, but at his contract valuation, he needs to offer value beyond volume scoring ability, or be a 25-27+ PPG scorer at a more efficient clip.
- RJ Barrett (4 years, $107 million): RJ Barrett is more versatile than both Jordan Poole and Tyler Herro, but he isn’t the shooter or playmaker that either player are. Barrett, for his position, has been horrific from an efficiency standpoint; he’s ranked in the 35th percentile or better amongst wings in eFG% just once in his four-year career (per Cleaning the Glass), and he was in the 35th percentile said season. Barrett isn’t a good defender either; his size and athletic profile gives him some upside on that end of the court, but he doesn’t move the needle in a meaningful way. Barrett’s slashing ability is valuable and we’ve seen him flash impressive talent throughout his career, but he’s far too inconsistent and it’s tough to envision him ever being even a #2 option on a title team. Barrett’s two points in New York’s elimination game is a clear sign that he’s perhaps not as valuable a player as his contract indicates.
Poole, Herro, and Barrett are just a few examples to be wary of; there does come a point in the Draft where the halfcourt creation talent stands out. After all, if Herro, for example, got up to 25ish PPG on better efficiency, he’d be a clear All Star. That’s the tall task; scoring and individual shot creation is extremely valuable, but when it’s at the level of needing higher volume to reach those marks, it’s almost a hamstring to a roster especially if said player isn’t an impact player off-ball, defensively, or for a playmaking standpoint. This evolvement around my thinking surrounding shot creation will be reflected in my board in a different manner than previous seasons.
Who are the top players in this year’s draft? What do our rankings look like, and what players are we higher on, or lower on, than the consensus? Who are the sleepers? What trades could we see at the deadline? All of that, and some other draft nuggets, are below:
The Chirp’s 75
| Player | Position | School/Country |
| 1. Victor Wembanyama | Big | Metropolitans 92 (France) |
| 2. Scoot Henderson | Guard | G League Ignite |
| 3. Brandon Miller | Wing | Alabama Crimson Tide |
| 4. Cam Whitmore | Wing | Villanova Wildcats |
| 5. Cason Wallace | Guard | Kentucky Wildcats |
| 6. Jarace Walker | Forward | Houston Cougars |
| 7. Keyonte George | Guard | Baylor Bears |
| 8. Anthony Black | Guard | Arkansas Razorbacks |
| 9. Amen Thompson | Wing | Overtime Elite |
| 10. Taylor Hendricks | Forward | UCF Knights |
| 11. Ausar Thompson | Wing | Overtime Elite |
| 12. Andre Jackson Jr. | Wing | UConn Huskies |
| 13. Gradey Dick | Wing | Kansas Jayhawks |
| 14. Dereck Lively II | Big | Duke Blue Devils |
| 15. Jalen Hood-Schifino | Guard | Indiana Hoosiers |
| 16. Kobe Bufkin | Guard | Michigan Wolverines |
| 17. Jordan Hawkins | Guard | UConn Huskies |
| 18. Dariq Whitehead | Wing | Duke Blue Devils |
| 19. Jordan Walsh | Wing | Arkansas Razorbacks |
| 20. Colby Jones | Wing | Xavier Musketeers |
| 21. Bilal Coulibaly | Wing | Metropolitans 92 (France) |
| 22. Leonard Miller | Forward | G League Ignite |
| 23. Nick Smith Jr. | Guard | Arkansas Razorbacks |
| 24. Sidy Cissoko | Wing | G League Ignite |
| 25. Rayan Rupert | Wing | New Zealand Breakers |
| 26. Amari Bailey | Guard | UCLA Bruins |
| 27. Brice Sensabaugh | Wing | Ohio State Buckeyes |
| 28. Jalen Slawson | Wing | Furman Paladins |
| 29. Maxwell Lewis | Wing | Pepperdine Waves |
| 30. Marcus Sasser | Guard | Houston Cougars |
| 31. Trayce Jackson-Davis | Big | Indiana Hoosiers |
| 32. Jaime Jaquez Jr. | Forward | UCLA Bruins |
| 33. Noah Clowney | Forward | Alabama Crimson Tide |
| 34. Jett Howard | Wing | Michigan Wolverines |
| 35. Kris Murray | Forward | Iowa Hawkeyes |
| 36. Olivier-Maxence Prosper | Forward | Marquette Golden Eagles |
| 37. Mike Miles Jr. | Guard | TCU Horned Frogs |
| 38. Brandin Podziemski | Guard | Santa Clara Broncs |
| 39. Terquavion Smith | Guard | NC State Wolfpack |
| 40. Kobe Brown | Forward | Missouri Tigers |
| 41. Seth Lundy | Wing | Penn State Nittany Lions |
| 42. Isaiah Wong | Guard | Miami (FL) Hurricanes |
| 43. Ben Sheppard | Wing | Belmont Bruins |
| 44. James Nnaji | Big | Barcelona (ACB) |
| 45. Mohamad Gueye | Forward | Washington State Cougars |
| 46. Tristan Vukcevic | Big | KK Partizan |
| 47. Julian Strawther | Wing | Gonzaga Bulldogs |
| 48. Jaylen Clark | Guard | UCLA Bruins |
| 49. Ricky Council IV | Wing | Arkansas Razorbacks |
| 50. Julian Phillips | Wing | Tennessee Volunteers |
| 51. Hunter Tyson | Forward | Clemson Tigers |
| 52. GG Jackson II | Forward | South Carolina Gamecocks |
| 53. Jalen Pickett | Guard | Penn State Nittany Lions |
| 54. Jordan Miller | Forward | Miami (FL) Hurricanes |
| 55. Justin Powell | Guard | Washington State Cougars |
| 56. Sir’Jabari Rice | Guard | Texas Longhorns |
| 57. Keyontae Johnson | Wing | Kansas State Wildcats |
| 58. Nikola Djurisic | Wing | Mega Basket |
| 59. Markquis Nowell | Guard | Kansas State Wildcats |
| 60. Liam Robbins | Big | Vanderbilt Commodores |
| 61. Jalen Wilson | Forward | Kansas Jayhawks |
| 62. Tosan Evbuomwan | Forward | Princeton Tigers |
| 63. Chris Livingston | Wing | Kentucky Wildcats |
| 64. Landers Nolley II | Wing | Cincinnati Bearcats |
| 65. Adam Flagler | Guard | Baylor Bears |
| 66. Colin Castleton | Big | Florida Gators |
| 67. Oscar Tshiebwe | Big | Kentucky Wildcats |
| 68. Kevin McCullar Jr. | Wing | Kansas Jayhawks |
| 69. Charles Bediako | Big | Alabama Crimson Tide |
| 70. Damion Baugh | Guard | TCU Horned Frogs |
| 71. Justyn Mutts | Forward | Virginia Tech Hokies |
| 72. Emoni Bates | Wing | Eastern Michigan Eagles |
| 73. Adama Sanogo | Big | UConn Huskies |
| 74. Drew Timme | Big | Gonzaga Bulldogs |
| 75. Matthew Mayer | Forward | Illinois Fighting Illini |
Scoot Henderson over Brandon Miller
The noisiest debate circulating around the draft is whether G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson, or Alabama forward Brandon Miller is the 2nd best prospect in the class. For me, I think Henderson is a clear tier above Miller.
Henderson is a dynamic athlete; while he didn’t live at the rim as much as you’d like for a player with his speed/athleticism, his downhill burst and force is fascinating. Take this massive poster for instance:
Henderson was terrific in terms of pull-up shooting from mid-range as well, illustrating that he can be an effective halfcourt individual shot creator and not limited solely to dominating transition play. Take a player who Henderson has some similarities with: Ja Morant. The Memphis Grizzlies’ halfcourt offense has been below average the past two seasons, primarily because for as dynamic of an open floor player as Morant is, he’s a below average pull up shooter and in a more clustered halfcourt setting, he doesn’t have as much space to operate at the rim. I don’t envision Henderson having that problem and given his own athletic prowess, I think his offensive upside could usurp that of Morant’s, even if his playmaking isn’t quite as good. Henderson’s defense, like many young prospects, is a work in progress, but all the physical tools and competitiveness are there. He has lead guard, star potential.
Miller is quite talented in his own right; he’s arguably the best shooter in the class and his movement is extremely fluid. It’s easy to envision Miller seamlessly slotting into an offense running off screens and pin downs, utilized as a pure spot up shooter, or as someone who can get into isolation sets. Miller isn’t as natural of a creator as Henderson, a large reason why I have him at #3 despite his premier size/length at the wing position. Miller did drastically improve in this regard as the year went along, including his finishing at the rim, as evidenced by the below:
Still, I do question whether Miller can be a legitimate 20-25 PPG guy in the NBA considering he’s not the strongest or most physical finisher, nor is he the most polished from an individual standpoint. Obviously, he has plenty of time to grow and fill out his frame, but we saw a somewhat similar situation a year ago with Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr., a similar player in terms of game, skill, and size, who struggled immensely at the rim. Smith’s rookie season was mediocre, as his shot regressed and he wasn’t able to consistently create space. I think Miller is a more polished creator than Smith was/is, but I also saw far too often Miller struggle at the rim, despite his improvements.
Defensively, Miller’s competitiveness impressed me. He was far from a star player who only played one end of the court; he gets in a good stance, can rotate for blocks, and gets back in transition. Really, having Henderson at #2 is more of high how I am on Henderson versus down on Miller. Another consideration that shouldn’t be taken lightly is Miller’s involvement in the Tuscaloosa shooting, which became a major headline this past season. It’s not something I have individual insight on, but it’s a scenario that would give me extreme pause about investing a pick in Miller, despite his on court ability.
Six Names I’m Higher On
Cason Wallace (5): I’ve been extremely surprised to see Cason Wallace seem to be sliding further and further down mock drafts. It’s starting to seem more likely than not that Wallace is a late lottery/mid-teens selection, rather than a top-10 pick. Wallace, to me, has one of the highest floors in the entire draft. He’s already an excellent perimeter defender and arguably the best perimeter defender in the class, plus he showed an offensive game that highlighted individual creation abilities despite playing in an offense that had limited spacing. Like Miller, I thought Wallace really improved his individual shot creation as the year went along. Wallace could be the first freshman since James Harden to be a first-round pick after posting a block % of >1.5% and steal % >3.5% along with hitting 40+ three pointers. His physical profile compares extremely favorably to a group of guards who we’ve seen become extremely valuable players despite not having a deep “bag” of go-to moves; Derrick White, De’Anthony Melton, and Bruce Brown in particular, bode extremely well for his floor. If Wallace’s offense game continues to develop, I don’t think the Jrue Holiday comparisons are far-fetched. Already, I view him as a better offensive player than people give him credit for: Wallace suffered with back spasms midway through the season but before that, he was shooting nearly 42% from deep. At minimum, you’re getting a 3-and-D wing who can play make, pass, attack a closeout, and create havoc defensively.
Keyonte George (7): Despite my commentary at the beginning around being lower on volume scorers this time, I’m still extremely high on Keyonte George. Take a look at the below table, which highlights a lot of recent draftees I’d consider in the realm of “volume scorer” archetype:
| Name | Free Throw Rate | Assist Rate | Turnover Rate | Usage Rate | PER | TS% |
| Keyonte George | 36.4% | 20.1% | 16.4% | 30.8% | 17.8 | 52.4% |
| Nick Smith Jr. | 24.8% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 28.7% | 13.0 | 47.2% |
| Jalen Green (G League) | 16.9% | 13.5% | 21.3% | 22.9% | N/A | 61.3% |
| Cameron Thomas | 44.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 31.6% | 24.1 | 55.3% |
| Cole Anthony | 37.1% | 24.1% | 15.9% | 30.0% | 17.5 | 50.1% |
| RJ Barrett | 31.9% | 23.5% | 13.2% | 32.2% | 23.3 | 53.2% |
| Cam Reddish | 26.4% | 10.7% | 16.5% | 25.3% | 13.6 | 49.9% |
| Tyler Herro | 23.1% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 21.4% | 19.4 | 58.0% |
| Jordan Poole | 24.4% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 20.9% | 16.0 | 57.3% |
One thing that pops out to me is how well-rounded George’s game is relative to others on this list; he gets to the line at an extremely high clip and, despite his poor 3-PT and 2-PT%, still is relatively efficient compared to other names. George’s playmaking is another thing that pops; his assist rate is strong and while his turnover rate is high, he’s not a natural point guard. I think he offers some untapped playmaking potential along with the bare bones to be a more efficient offensive scorer as he molds into a secondary option, perhaps along the lines of someone like Bradley Beal as a ceiling. Perhaps it’s a bit concerning that his lone collegiate season is eerily reminiscent of Cole Anthony’s, but I’ll buy George’s upside to get beyond the volume scorer role. He showed a glimpse of it early in conference play; over his first four Big 12 games, George scored 97 points on 63 shots. His assist to turnover ratio was poor (0.58), but his ability to get to the line highlights his potential to grow into that player that, instead of ~20 PPG on average efficiency (at best), can be a 22-25 PPG scorer on slightly above average efficiency, with playmaking ability.
Andre Jackson Jr. (12): I doubt you’ll see anyone else rank Andre Jackson Jr. as a lottery pick, but he’s probably my personal favorite player in the class. Jackson is the ultimate glue guy; he excels as a cutter, connective passer, individual and team defender, and can wear many different hats. If you need Jackson to set screens, he can. If you need Jackson to hit the offensive glass, he can. If you need Jackson to guard the opposing team’s best player, he can. The lone knock on Jackson, and it is a big one, is he’s a total non-shooter. Jackson’s mechanics are poor and he’s an unwilling shooter a lot of times, which led to many UConn opponents resulting to never guarding him. Can you justify selecting a non-shooter who doesn’t self-create in the top-14? I believe so.
One observation I had during the NBA Playoffs was a niche player that has been apparent on winning teams. Look at Gary Payton III with Golden State during their 2022 championship, Bruce Brown Jr. with Denver this year and Josh Hart in New York. Those players serve as the blueprint for what Jackson can be at the pro level. Jackson’s best skill is his off-ball movement; he’s a terrific cutter, screener, and passer. That skillset will easily allow Jackson to unlock an entirely new dimension of a team’s offense that we’ve seen consistently lead to championships (see: Denver and Golden State). It may seem like a bold, if not an outlandish claim, but Jackson did just that at UConn this season. Not to mention, but Jackson is also a terrific athlete who plays above the rim, giving him extreme impact on the offensive glass.
Jackson, to me, is a clear analytics play. He’s going to maximize a team’s possessions because of his ability to generate turnovers and create second chance opportunities. We’ve seen players in his mold become invaluable to their team’s systems as well; ceiling wise, I don’t think it’s outlandish to compare Jackson to Andre Iguodala in Golden State. Igudoala was never a halfcourt, individual shot creator in the Bay, but he was an exceptional defender, cutter, screener, and passer. If Jackson Jr. can continue to progress on his 3-PT shot, I think he’ll be the biggest steal in the class. He’s an obvious fit for the Denver Nuggets who recently acquired picks in the 30s.
Dariq Whitehead (18): Talent-wise, there aren’t many players in this class with a higher pedigree than Dariq Whitehead, who was a top-5 recruit and a star in high school at Montverde Academy. Whitehead battled a foot injury all season and recently underwent his second foot surgery. Despite that, I was impressed by Whitehead’s game all year and think he’s a potential steal.
At Duke, Whitehead was primarily limited into a spot-up shooting role, one he thrived in. Whitehead knocked down 42.9% of his 3-PT attempts; he wasn’t run off pindowns, but from an accuracy standpoint, he’s clearly one of the best standstill shooters in the class. If you’re examining a pure 3-and-D wing, Whitehead fits the bill. It’s his potential to be much more that intrigues me. Whitehead displayed an impressive array of self-creation skills in high school and, despite his foot injury which certainly limited his explosiveness, had some flashes at Duke this year. Duke’s offense didn’t provide for much spacing, but Whitehead’s improvement as the year went along was evident. Whitehead shot 49.3% from deep when the calendar turned; he needs to improve his finishing around the rim and playmaking, but his shooting mark and scoring pop wasn’t the result of a singular hot stretch. Defensively too, Whitehead was very impressive, demonstrating high intensity and great instincts. A 3-and-D floor with much more of upside makes Whitehead a clear value pick if he gets in the 20s.
Jordan Walsh (19): If Andre Jackson Jr. isn’t my favorite prospect in this class, then that honor goes to Jordan Walsh. Walsh is consistently mocked as an early/mid 2nd round player, an assessment I strongly disagree with. Watching Walsh play, it’s easy to see where he slots in an NBA rotation. He’s one of the best defenders in the class, as he’s able to defend 1-4 due to his terrific lateral agility and length (7’2 wingspan). Walsh was able to stifle an array of talented players in college, namely Jalen Wilson (2022-23 Big 12 Player of the Year). Walsh has legitimate All-Defense potential and he flashes the ability on a consistent basis. He has a relentless motor, is able to diagnose plays, and is extremely aggressive.
Walsh’s defense and positional versatility certainly makes him worthy of a top-30 pick in my opinion, but what will ultimately determine his ceiling is how his offensive game rounds out. Walsh, like many freshmen, really struggled with efficiency: he shot just 27.8% from deep, had more turnovers than assists, and had an eFG% of 47.9%. Walsh’s mechanics are good on his shot and, if he can improve to 34-36% from deep, he’ll become a premier 3-and-D wing, perhaps in the mold of someone like Dorian Finney-Smith. Walsh is also an active rebounder; he crashes the glass hard on both ends and his above average vertical and reach allows him to swallow rebounds. In transition, expect Walsh to make an impact as well. His athleticism allows for him to grab and go off rebounds, serve as a lob threat, or attack the basket in advantageous situations. He won’t ever be a go-to shot creator in the halfcourt, but there’s plenty of value in an elite defender who can spot up and play in transition.
Jalen Slawson (28): Jalen Slawson has been a player on my radar for the past three years at Furman and his pure stat line illustrates why. This past season, Slawson averaged 15.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.5 BPG on a 56/39/78 shooting line. Slawson is an extremely versatile player on the wing who boasts an impressive physical profile (6’7, 220 lbs. with a 7’0 wingspan) and plus athleticism. Slawson is older than nearly every prospect in the class (he turns 24 in October), but he’s also a much more polished prospect.
Slawson offers serious promise in a lot of the same areas as Andre Jackson, albeit he’s perhaps not as elite as Jackson as a cutter, passer, or defender. Slawson was a main focal point of a Furman team that beat Virginia in the NCAA Tournament; he’s a terrific connective passer who served as the go-to guy for the Paladins offense. Slawson can make any pass on the court and can operate from the low post, mid post, and top of the key; his ability to orchestrate dribble hand-offs and find cutters is particularly intriguing giving his size and own skillset of being able to attack the basket with ferocity if defenders overcommit. Slawson is a powerful athlete at the rim as well, throwing down multiple explosive dunks over his career at Furman. I struggle to envision how Slawson becomes more than a low usage offensive player, but he’s extremely capable of playing off-ball. He improved as a standstill 3-PT shooter and offers extreme upside as a cutter.
Defensively, Slawson is beyond impressive as a player who can create havoc; he has a career 3.1% steal rate and a 5.6% block rate. Slawson can be unlocked in smaller lineups due to his weakside, shot blocking ability and his physicality against bigs. Slawson’s defense and hustle is probably his best skill, as he thrives on-ball as well due to his lateral movement and physicality. Slawson isn’t as dominant on-ball as someone like Jordan Walsh, but his well-rounded game merits a first-round look.
Five Names I’m Lower On
Amen Thompson (9): There’s no denying the athletic repertoire of Amen Thompson. He’s a dynamic athlete who has a terrific stop/start ability. Yet, the justification for selecting Thompson so high relates to his upside, where some people have compared him favorably to Ja Morant. It’s where I have concerns, as I don’t see the path for Thompson to develop into an above average 3-PT shooter or a consistent halfcourt scoring option. Thompson’s dribble package is limited and when he can’t dominate his opponent athletically, he struggles to score consistently. Thompson does offer immense value as a playmaker and passer, but where is his path to scoring 20-25+ PPG to be a legitimate superstar? It’s tough to envision Thompson hitting those marks given his offensive limitations in the halfcourt.
I think a better, more reasonable comparison for Thompson might be prime Andre Iguodala, who was a terrific player in his own right. Thompson’s electric transition ability given his elite athleticism could make him an extremely valuable player. He’s great around the rim as he’s able to contort his body around defenders or absorb contact. The cleanest path for Thompson’s impact comes from his transition ability. Another point I’d note: Overtime Elite, where the Thompson twins played, has zero track record for NBA development. Overtime Elite is a newer entity, but the Thomspon twins were playing against opponents 1-2 years younger than them with a substantially lower talent pool than college or overseas. Considering Amen’s shooting struggles in that league, I have serious question marks regarding his long-term ceiling, which is the primary driver around his potential to be a top-5 pick.
Ausar Thompson (11): A lot of what I wrote about Amen applies for Ausar. Ausar is the better shooter and likely offers a higher floor, but has similar flaws to Amen while not being as talented overall. His efficiency marks were below those of Amen’s and while he has similar strengths (athleticism, defensive versatility, playmaking), I think he’s a touch worse than Amen overall. His existing base skillset is worthy of a lottery selection, I just worry about the likelihood of him hitting his ultimate upside.
Bilal Coulibaly (21): Bilal Coulibaly is a late riser on boards, with some mocks and intel even suggesting he could sneak into the top-10. Coulibaly compares favorably to Mikal Bridges and Andrew Wiggins from a physical perspective per DraftExpress’ NBA database, which certainly heightens the intrigue. A 6’7 wing with a 7’3 wingspan, Coulibaly’s measurements are quite similar to Jordan Walsh’s as well. Similar to Walsh, Coulibaly possesses All-Defense upside with perhaps a higher offensive ceiling.
The reason why I have Coulibaly behind Walsh, however, is I think his offensive floor is lower. Coulibaly’s 3-PT shooting numbers were better than Walsh’s (33.6% in France), but I’m not sure I buy Coulibaly ultimately being the better, and more willing shooter, than Walsh long-term. Coulibaly struggled in his previous season from deep and is still overall hit-or-miss, with mechanics that aren’t as projectible. Offensively, I think Coulibaly’s ceiling is really limited, as his dribble package is well below average and he offers little in the way of secondary playmaking or on-ball creation. The difficulty with this is that Coulibaly’s offensive role early on his career will likely be to operate as a standstill shooter on the perimeter and look for cutting opportunities; given his inconsistency and struggles attacking closeouts, I’m not sure how valuable he’ll be in that role, which could deflate his overall outlook. There’s no denying his defensive skill and pure athleticism, but the work needed to round out his offensive game in a league weaker than traditional European leagues gives me pause on assigning a lottery pick grade to him.
Jett Howard (34): Jett Howard isn’t the typical “volume scorer” who I’ve dropped on my board this year, but his game is heavily reliant on how many points he can score. Therefore, he’ll largely be measured by efficiency and investing a first-round pick in a player who can score and not provide much else is concerning. Howard isn’t much of a playmaker (12.9% assist rate), doesn’t get to the free throw line at a high rate (22.7%), and is quite reliant on jump shots (64.0% 3-PT rate). Howard is a great shooter, evident by his 36.8% mark on 7.3 attempts per game, but he doesn’t give you much else. Howard is best suited to play alongside a primary shot creator (or multiple) and probably operate in a spot-up or secondary playmaker role where he can attack closeouts, initiate pick-and-roll, and get to his good in-between game.
The other concern around Howard’s game is he’s a negative defender; he’s poor as a point-of-attack defender and given his lack of playmaking and rebounding ability, how does he impact the game without scoring? And, if he can’t score efficiently, does he actually hurt his team on the court? Howard doesn’t play with poor effort, which is why I still have him around a late Round 1 prospect, but his relatively limited skillset as a scorer, combined with poor defense and playmaking, gives me concern over how valuable he’ll be for a winning team.
GG Jackson (52): GG Jackson is perhaps the most polarizing prospect in the entire class. The case for Jackson is as follows: he’s the youngest player in the draft (not even 19) and can create for himself. The upside here is tantalizing for him to become a top-20/30 player in the league. My question is how does that happen? In order for Jackson to reach his ceiling, he’ll need to be the main or secondary shot creator, and he certainly won’t get that opportunity in the league because he’s inefficient, over reliant on difficult shots, and struggles with his decision making. Unless Jackson goes to a team that can afford him a long leash to further develop as a playmaker, he’ll have to initially earn minutes in more of an off-ball role, something his skillset doesn’t seem to match. Jackson isn’t much of a spot-up shooter, he’s not active without the ball, and he’s not a good or connective passer. More concerning is Jackson’s lack of effort defensively; his physical profile should make him an above average defender, but he’s far too often caught ball watching, not aggressive at point-of-attack, and not physical enough to switch onto bigger players. I struggle to see how Jackson sticks in the NBA unless he improves his shot selection and efficiency in self-creation scenarios. There’s no doubt he’s talented, he just needs a lot of polishing.
Sleepers to Know
Marcus Sasser (30): I’m stunned that Marcus Sasser isn’t more widely thought of as a first-round prospect. Sasser is small (6’1), but he has a 6’7 wingspan and is a tenacious on-ball defender, evident by his 3.3% steal rate. Sasser isn’t a good finisher inside and isn’t the most natural playmaker, which puts him in an awkward positional spot, but he has a clear role, at worst, as an elite 3-and-D guard. The reason why I’m so high on him is because of his self-creation ability, where he demonstrates an elite stepback to knock down threes at an extremely high clip, given the nature of his shot attempts. Immanuel Quickley is a solid comp in my opinion for Sasser.
Trayce Jackson-Davis (31): This is a weaker class for centers and for a position I always devalue, I’m not surprised to only have three centers in my top-35. That being said, I’m a big believer in Jackson-Davis’ game, particularly because of how well he fits what teams need from modern bigs. Jackson-Davis has three limitations: his size (6’8), lack of shooting range, and left-hand dominance. Teams don’t need centers to hit threes to win and TJD will never be a go-to offense game, which minimizes my concern over his poor right hand. For a player with minimal flaws, it’s easy to see where Jackson-Davis fits in; he can operate as an offensive hub due to his ability to initiate DHOs, he can thrive in short rolls due to his improved passing ability and elite touch around the rim and in the paint, and he’s a terrific athlete who plays above the rim. Defensively, Jackson-Davis is a great rim protector and is agile enough to switch on the perimeter, although I’m not sure he’ll thrive in a switch heavy scheme. For comparison purposes, we’ve seen centers in the NBA thrive with Jackson-Davis’ exact skillset, namely Bam Adebayo. TJD shouldn’t be thought of as good as Adebayo, but the similarities are striking.
Justin Powell (55): Justin Powell is a real sleeper for me, primarily because he has NBA-level skills related to his shooting ability, along with added playmaking chops. Powell has great size (6’6) and shot 42.6% from deep this year on 183 total attempts; for his collegiate career, he’s shot 41.9% on 289 attempts. Powell doesn’t offer much in terms of putting pressure on the rim or getting to the line, but he’s an effective passer (career 17.5% assist rate) with more assists than turnovers in every season (including a 3:1 ratio this year), and a good positional rebounder. Powell can easily slot in as a shooter who can attack closeouts, run pick-and-roll, pass, and rebound. He’s not a great athlete or defender, but he’ll be far from a liability. I wouldn’t be surprised if Powell ends up being a rotation-caliber wing.
Liam Robbins (60): At their core, centers need to do a few things: they need to protect the rim, be able to play above average in 2/3 defensive schemes (switch, drop, post), set screens, roll, finish at the rim, rebound, and make simple passes. Unless your center is generationally great offensively (Jokic), we’ve seen plenty of evidence amongst past NBA champions that you don’t need to spend major amounts of money on a center. Therefore, when I evaluate the position, those are the core skills I look for. Hence, why Liam Robbins is a sleeper.
Robbins is a terrific shot blocker; he averaged 3.2 blocks per game and boasted the top block rate in the country (14.4%). See how that matches up with recent rim protecting bigs:
| Name | Blocks Per Game | Block Rate | DREB Rate | OREB Rate | Pick |
| Liam Robbins | 3.2 | 14.4% | 20.6% | 12.2% | N/A |
| Dereck Lively II | 2.4 | 12.7% | 17.8% | 12.4% | N/A |
| Walker Kessler | 4.6 | 19.1% | 22.2% | 10.9% | 22 |
| Mark Williams | 2.8 | 11.4% | 21.2% | 13.2% | 15 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 2.6 | 12.7% | 23.3% | 11.2% | 22 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 2.7 | 9.8% | 18.4% | 12.4% | 6 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 2.2 | 10.6% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 8 |
| Nic Claxton | 2.5 | 8.0% | 20.6% | 8.4% | 31 |
| Daniel Gafford | 2.0 | 8.7% | 22.5% | 11.1% | 38 |
You could argue (successfully) that Liam Robbins has been the best rim protector over the past five drafts besides Walker Kessler, and all players with a similar “archetype” were all top-40 selections at worst, with many being first-round picks. Not to mention, but Robbins is an elite shooting big, knocking down 39% of his catch and shoot threes this season and averaging 15.0 PPG. Robbins was only a 30.6% career 3-PT shooter, so it remains to be seen how legitimate last season’s mark was, but it’s certainly worth taking a swing on. Robbins can also score down low, in mid-range, and has some underrated hops in the paint to throw down dunks. Considering what you need from your centers, Robbins has it all; his lateral quickness is the big question mark, but his rim protection, drop coverage, rebounding, decent passing, and floor spacing gives him potential to be a poor man’s Brook Lopez.
Keep an Eye on the Trade Block
We had the first major trade of the NBA season go down Sunday afternoon, when the Washington Wizards agreed to trade franchise cornerstone Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns for Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, a handful of 2nd round picks, and pick swaps per Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. We’ll dive into thoughts on that deal in a separate post, but that Beal deal will likely open up a lot of action. Chris Haynes of Bleacher Report reported that the Miami Heat are focusing on Damian Lillard and believe this could be the summer where he requests a trade; this is notable because Haynes has an extremely close relationship with Lillard. Here are a few other teams/players I’m watching on Thursday:
Orlando Magic: The Orlando Magic are a team to watch for a multitude of reasons: they own two lottery picks (6 + 11), have twenty future picks between the years 2024-2029, and a variety of intriguing young players who could be on the move. If I were Orlando, I’d be pushing hard to consolidate 6 & 11 to get to #2 to draft Scoot Henderson, who’d be a terrific fit on the roster. A Henderson/Fultz/Wagner/Banchero/Carter starting five offers loads of potential. If not jumping for Henderson, could Orlando use one of those picks to move down in the draft and grab a player to proceed their rebuild? Would the Magic trade the #6 pick to Golden State for #19 and Jonathan Kuminga? What about Monte Morris and #8 for #6? Or, could Orlando look to reverse that move, say by trading Jonathan Isaac and #6 to the Houston Rockets for the 4th overall selection and Kevin Porter Jr.? Or, if the Blazers don’t rebuild, would Isaac and #6 for Nurkic and #3 interest Portland? I’d be surprised if Orlando, a team already with lots of young talent and a roster build eerily resembling the Boston Celtics, selected at #6 and #11. This would be a great draft to try and move up into the top-3, or dangle one pick to move down for a 25+ MPG player.
Indiana Pacers: The Indiana Pacers are a really intriguing team; they have two clear building blocks (Tyrese Hailburton and Benedict Mathurin), two starting-caliber guys (Buddy Hield and Myles Turner), another good young guard (Andrew Nembhard), but not a lot else. It’s clear where Indiana’s needs lie on the wing and they’re almost certainly eyeing Jarace Walker and/or Taylor Hendricks at #7. Indiana also picks at #26, #29, #32, and #55. They’re certainly not going to be adding five rookies to a roster that already has 12 players under contract for next season. I would certainly expect the Pacers to package some combination of 26/29/32 to move up in the draft, but where? Would the Pacers be willing to absorb John Collins’ contract to move up to 15? What about a Malik Beasley/Buddy Hield swap, with Indiana jumping up from 29 to 17? Could Indiana jump all the way to #10, by dealing Hield (along with 26 + 32) to Dallas for Tim Hardaway Jr.? Indiana certainly has the firepower to jump into the top-20 if they wanted to, or they could trade for future picks (which may be a shrewd move).
Washington Wizards: I highly doubt the Wizards are done dealing after the Bradley Beal move; they’re a team headed nowhere fast and have a few players on the roster which could intrigue some teams. They won’t trade #8, but I could see them dangling some players to get back into Round 1 this year. If Lillard isn’t traded, would Miami deal #18 along with Victor Oladipo for Monte Morris and Corey Kispert? Would a Utah team with an abundance of extra picks trade Kelly Olynyk and either #28 or #16 for Monte Morris and Deni Avdija? Does Richaun Holmes and #24 land the Sacramento Kings Daniel Gafford? The teams with multiple picks (Utah and Indiana), or teams looking to leverage their first for a playoff rotation-caliber player will certainly be shopping off Washington’s roster.
Utah Jazz: The Utah Jazz are another team with multiple firsts (9, 16, 28). Utah, Indiana, Orlando, Brooklyn, and Charlotte combine to own 40% of the first round picks. The Jazz also hold a treasure trove of future firsts as well; like Oklahoma City, the Jazz will have to eventually cash in these picks. If they fall in love with someone in the 11-15 range, I’d expect they’d get aggressive in moving up.
Dallas Mavericks: The intel around the Dallas Mavericks has been all over the board, but the consensus seems to be built around the Mavericks packaging Davis Bertans along with the #10 pick to move down slightly in the draft in exchange for a defensive-minded starter. We’ve heard rumors from Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports around Bertans + 10 for John Collins + 15 (but Dallas reportedly wants Clint Capela). Tim Cato of The Athletic suggested Bertans + 10 for Royce O’Neale + 22, a deal where I’d imagine the Mavericks would ask for more. Dallas could also trade out of the draft entirely, although that would assuredly take a sizeable haul. Could Dallas look to offload Bertans to Utah for Kelly Olynyk, #16, and #28? What about Bertans to Indiana for all of the Pacers’ late first round/early second round picks, along with some group of TJ McConnell and/or Daniel Theis? Or, a smaller move with Chris Boucher and #13 headed to Dallas (along with Joe Wieskamp) for Bertans and #10? The Mavericks will surely remake their roster in a drastic way after an embarrassing end to the 2023 season, especially given the pressure they face. I’d be surprsied if Dallas selected at #10 without a move.
Los Angeles Lakers: The Los Angeles Lakers are a team with soap opera tendencies; given LeBron James not subtle declaration to upgrade the roster, it would seem counterintuitive to believe the Lakers would utilize the 17th pick on a player, particularly with the nonguaranteed salaries of Malik Beasley and Mo Bamba on the books as valuable trade chips. I’d imagine the Lakers would look to attach one of Beasley or Bamba, if not both, to #17 while seeking a starter in return. Is Tim Hardaway Jr. enough of an upgrade over Beasley? What about the Lakers and Washington making yet another deal together, packaging Beasley and #17 for Monte Morris and Deni Avdija (or Bamba and #17 for Avdija and Kispert?). Would Bojan Bogdanovic for Beasley and #17 interest Detroit? What about Beasley and #17 to Brooklyn for Royce O’Neale, Patty Mills, and #22? The Lakers certainly have possibilities and I’m not sure they stop there; Bamba/Beasley gets you about $26M in salary. Terry Rozier is another name I’d monitor, as trading for him would allow the Lakers to sign-and-trade D’Angelo Russell in a more aggressive manner.
Bonus Nuggets
- The new CBA is going to essentially force teams to fill roster spots with players costing near the minimum, which should further bolster the value of second round picks. We often see second round picks for sale and I’d imagine some luxury tax teams will be aggressive in pursuing them. Veterans are important to have on rosters, but seeing the success of players like Austin Reaves, Christian Braun, and Miami’s gaggle of undrafted players, I’m curious if we’ll see contenders start believing more in the notion that you can find young, rotation contributors with significantly higher upside in the late first to undrafted pool, rather than relying on veteran minimums.
- Last season, we saw two teams orchestrate “roster consolidation” trades, essentially dealing all of the end-of-bench players on their rosters, alongside their late first-round pick, in exchange for a rotation player. The Dallas Mavericks did it with Christian Wood, who was up-and-down in Dallas, and the Boston Celtics did it with Malcolm Brogdon, a move that was a clear success. Could we see a similar move again this year? The Sacramento Kings have the 24th pick and a variety of contracts that could move (PJ Dozier, Richaun Holmes, Kessler Edwards) for a rotation piece. Would that package interest a team like the Brooklyn Nets for Royce O’Neale? The Washington Wizards for Deni Avdija and Delon Wright? Could we see the Los Angeles Clippers at #30 attempt it by combining some grouping of Robert Covington and Amir Coffey? There aren’t as many obvious fits for that type of deal this year, but I’d keep an eye on it happening.
- The San Antonio Spurs will assuredly select Victor Wembanyama, but what they do afterwards will be extremely crucial in maximizing building a foundation alongside the prodigy. The Spurs already have three good wings in Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell, a steady point guard in Tre Jones, and a nice frontcourt piece in Zach Collins. They need more; I’d expect them to be aggressive in aiming for another first, whether that means including Johnson in a deal (perhaps Johnson to the Lakers for #17 and Bamba, or Johnson to Indiana for Daniel Theis, TJ McConnell, and #26 and #29), or smaller moves for Devonte’ Graham and/or Doug McDermott. Ideally, if I’m San Antonio, I want to build this roster full of young players to maximize the dynasty potential; there are already pieces in place, but partnering Wembanyama with, say Cason Wallace if he slides around 16, or Amari Bailey or Jalen Hood-Schifino all within the 15-25 range would be really, really smart.
- The Oklahoma City Thunder are another team which should dominate draft storylines for the next decade given the amount of picks they have. Yet, they’ve been quiet this draft season; they only have the #12 pick in Round 1, but still own a remarkable 28 picks (including their own) after this season through 2029. They have a legitimate superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, two terrific wings with All-Star upside in Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams, a high upside center who has yet to play in Chet Holmgren, and an elite perimeter defender in Lu Dort. Oklahoma City is a wing and a frontcourt player away from being extremely interesting, especially considering their Play-In appearance this past season. If I’m the Thunder, now’s the time to start getting aggressive. Is OG Anunoby available? Can Pascal Siakam be added to the Thunder’s frontcourt? Could Jarrett Allen be available from Cleveland in return for Dort and a pick? Would the Pelicans move on from Zion Williamson? These are the moves that, if you’re Sam Presti, you should start working through as the roster crunch churns on.
The Chirp 