The Dallas Mavericks are entering the new year on a high, playing their best basketball of the 2022-23 season despite facing a rash of injuries to multiple rotation players, many of whom function as the team’s best defenders. This marks the second consecutive season where Dallas seems to have overcome a sluggish start to show some promise at roughly the 40% mark of the season. A season is a marathon, not a sprint, and while the recent weeks should yield some increased optimism among the Mavericks’ faithful and decision-makers, there is still plenty of basketball to be played and plenty of decisions to make.
Despite Dallas’ mini resurgence within the past few weeks, make no mistake: the Mavericks very likely won’t win the NBA Finals this season. With a player of Luka Doncic’s generational talent on the roster it allows them to get on the shortlist of contenders, but there is a notable gap between Dallas and title contenders such as the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and others. In fact, Dallas’ current roster eerily resembles the group that lost to the Los Angeles Clippers in seven games two seasons ago. By no means does Dallas have a bad roster, but they do have a limited one. They have the same formula for winning and losing that we’ve seen from every roster Dallas has had since drafting Luka Doncic. If the Mavericks want to propel themselves into title contention, it means adding a different flavor to the recipe that Dallas has employed from a team-building standpoint over the past four seasons.
When evaluating the Mavericks entering 2023, their season, and immediate future thereafter, can be defined by three, key strategic decisions: Christian Wood’s future, adding more multi-dimensional players, and taking advantage of the newfound roster flexibility that the Kristaps Porzingis’ trade supposedly provided. How the Mavericks decide to proceed on these choices will set the stage for the next several months of the Doncic-era, a time period where urgency is needed.
Strategic Choice #1: The Christian Wood Decision
I have to admit – when the Dallas Mavericks traded for Christian Wood this summer, I wasn’t particularly enthused about the move. It was certainly a low-risk gambit for Dallas – they traded away their usual “DNP-CD” players at the end of the bench, plus a late first-round pick, for a talented offensive big who had averaged 19.1 PPG over two seasons with the Houston Rockets. Still, a lot worried me about Wood, notably his incidents with Houston that caused him to get suspended, his inexperience playing on a winning team, and his defensive struggles. I knew Wood was going to make an impact for Dallas, but the extent of his impact was what I debated. 34 games into Wood’s tenure, I’m glad to say I was wrong: Wood has been Dallas’ 2nd best player this season and has made a strong case to be a building block long-term alongside Doncic.
Christian Wood is now eligible for a 4-year, $77 million extension, a deal that I’m not sure he’ll receive from the Mavericks or in free agency this summer, if he gets there. That doesn’t mean, however, that Dallas should once again play with fire surrounding a high performing player who can leave for nothing in seven months. Ironically, the Mavericks are in the same position with Wood as they were with Jalen Brunson a year ago. Dallas cannot afford to make the same mistake again. Simply put, by the time February 9th rolls around, Wood has to be either extended or traded.
Argument to Extend
When the Dallas Mavericks acquired Kristaps Porzingis three years ago, they envisioned him being the ideal pick-and-pop threat with Luka Doncic, a 7’0 big who could space the floor at an elite level, score on his own inside, and match the timeline given his youth. Unfortunately, Porzingis’ fit alongside Doncic was not as seamless as expected. However, the way Wood has played in Dallas has likely been exactly what the Mavericks envisioned when getting Porzingis. A quick comparison of Wood’s stats this season compared to Porzingis’ tenure in Dallas highlights a few key points:
| Player | PPG | FG% | 3-PT% |
| Christian Wood (with DAL) | 17.4 | 53.8% | 38.0% |
| Kristaps Porzingis (with DAL) | 20.0 | 44.8% | 34.5% |
The first thing that rightfully jumps out is Wood’s efficiency compared to that of Porzingis; Wood’s shot profile and shot making is significantly more effective than how KP matched with Luka. The pick-and-pop/roll game is still just as lethal as well. Where Wood has impressed, in particular, is his roll game ability, something the Mavericks never unleashed with Porzingis. Wood has grown a lot in the short roll game, improving in his ability to find open players off opponents trapping Doncic in the P&R and to bully switches near the basket. Wood’s growth is partially why Dallas is so effective when Doncic gets doubled, even if Dwight Powell is still the best big on the roster in those situations. Wood is also averaging 1.03 PPP on post-ups this season, good for the 70th percentile in the NBA; while Porzingis has been better than Wood in that regard this season, he never reached that level in Dallas, where he stalled out at the 37th and 59th percentiles in his prior two years with the Mavericks. (Stats courtesy of NBA.com)
Outside of the enhanced efficiency, the two main improvements which stand out are Wood’s self-creation ability and rebounding. Wood has a slightly higher rate of buckets coming of the unassisted variety than Porzingis did in Dallas, but the profile along those shots is significantly greater. 32.7% of Wood’s makes this season have been unassisted and of that 32.7%, 80.5% of those have come within the paint or restricted area. Last season, 22.7% of Porzingis’ makes were unassisted and of that 22.7%, 66.1% were in the paint or restricted area (stats via NBA.com). Even Porzingis’ resurgence in Washington this year hasn’t seen his numbers rise to that of Wood; simply put, from an offensive standpoint, for as talented as Porzingis is, I’d argue that Wood is perhaps the better player, particularly alongside Doncic. The Mavericks have a 119.1 offensive rating when Wood and Doncic share the court together.
There’s no denying Wood’s offensive talent and impact, but his defensive growth over recent weeks has been astounding and, in particular, makes for the strongest case to extend Wood. Over the seven-game stretch when Wood first became a starter (Dec. 16th – 29th), he ranks 7th in the NBA in defended field goal attempts per game, 10th in shots contested per game, and opponents are shooting 46.9% on shots Wood has defended, an elite mark (which rivals Jakob Poeltl, who’s thought of as one of the best rim protectors in the NBA). On shots within six feet of the rim, opponents have shot 54.4% against Wood, which is 5th best amongst defenders with 7+ attempts defended within six feet. Wood also ranks in the 91st percentile in block rate and 9th in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage (Cleaning The Glass). Simply put, Wood has been a game-changing player on the defensive end of the court. (Stats courtesy of NBA.com)
Argument to Trade
Truthfully, with the way Wood has played since entering the starting lineup, particularly over the defensive end of the court, it’s hard to find a reason not to extend him. He’s played at an All-Star level, and he’s easily been one of the best players to have played with Doncic since entering the NBA. However, there are some things to consider when making this defining decision.
Perhaps the most defining factor of the Wood decision should be how Dallas views Wood in the broader NBA spectrum, primarily, can he perform at a level consistent with that of a #2 option on a title winning team? I think he’s better suited as a #3 because he’s not a shot creator for himself at the clip you’d expect from a #2. The Mavericks need to find that #2 guy alongside Doncic and if Wood can serve as the catalyst to get that player, then perhaps Dallas should once again consider a trade that serves as a temporary step backwards for a stronger future. If Wood could net, say, two first-round picks at the deadline, that would be a very, very tough package to turn down, given the trades Dallas could make with those assets in the summer. At the end of the day, Dallas faces substantial risk letting Wood reach the open market in July and frankly, it’s a risk I don’t think Dallas should take.
The ultimate on-court determinant in my opinion on whether or not Dallas should commit to Wood comes to the debate over how real his defensive improvement is. A seven-game sample is peanuts compared to a career long sample that has shown us Wood isn’t a good defender, especially around the rim. Wood has been solid in isolation settings (but far from lockdown) but unlocking the optimal lineup with Wood likely involves him at center, which means he’ll be forced to be a deterrent at the rim. His historical defensive data isn’t particularly kind:
| Season | DFG% <6 Ft. of Rim |
| Dec. 16 – 29th (2022-23 Season) | 54.4% |
| 2022-23 Full Season | 61.8% |
| 2021-22 Full Season | 60.8% |
| 2020-21 Full Season | 53.1% |
For the season as a whole, Wood’s defensive mark is quite poor and ranks particularly unfavorable amongst his peers. If his true performance can inch closer to that 54.4% mark, there’s some serious improvement there and one that’s indicative of a rim protector. The eye test and basic stats back up this improvement, but consistency is the key. Luckily, Dallas doesn’t need to commit to Wood within the next week or two and they should get another 7-12 game sample coming in prior to the trade deadline. If Wood hovers around 55-57% on rim defense, combined with his tantalizing offensive game/fit with Doncic, it’ll be impossible for the Mavericks to ignore. If that’s the case, Dallas should be extremely willing to talk business with Wood; a 3-year, $54 million extension is a range/number I’d feel pretty comfortable with personally, but I’d likely be fine giving him the full 4/77 deal if that’s what it takes.
Strategic Choice #2: Adding Multi-Dimensionality
It is no secret that Dallas’ roster is short of that consistent with title contenders, with perhaps their greatest shortcoming arriving in their lack of individual shot creation outside of Luka Doncic. As of 12/29, Dallas’ offensive rating without Doncic on the court would be the worst in the NBA; with Doncic on the court, it’s by far the best in the league. The swing in offensive production that Dallas experiences with and without Doncic is the largest gap in the NBA. Narrowing that gap should be Dallas’ first, second, and third priority when evaluating which roster moves are needed to become a true title contender.
Dallas’ two options on the roster in terms of individual shot creation outside of Doncic are Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie. While Wood can do it a little bit, just 27.3% of his total shot attempts come off 2+ dribbles and primarily, they come on post up touches inside. He’s effective at it, but isolations for Wood are not a highly efficient shot. Dinwiddie, however, deserves a ton of credit and he’s quietly been one of the best self-creators in the NBA this season. 75.5% of Dinwiddie’s shot attempts have come off 2+ dribbles and he’s been effective at knocking them down; he’s at 37.1% on 3-PT attempts off 2+ dribbles and 51.4% on 2-PT shots. The problem? History tells us that may be unsustainable for Dinwiddie, taking a look at his numbers over his past three fully healthy seasons:
| 2+ Dribble 2-PT% | 2+ Dribble 3-PT% | |
| 2022-23 Season | 51.4% | 37.1% |
| 2021-22 Season (WAS/DAL) | 46.2% | 31.6% |
| 2019-20 Season (BKN) | 46.6% | 30.0% |
Maybe Dinwiddie’s shooting spike is real, but a 6.5% 3-PT jump? That seems unlikely to be maintained, but it’s also unfair to expect Dinwiddie to continue to perform so far above his career marks. It highlights again the necessity Dallas has to add more shot creation, as Dinwiddie’s career-year off the dribble is providing a major, yet untrustworthy jolt, to Dallas’ offense. If Dinwiddie does somehow maintain this level of play, the Mavericks all of a sudden would have two of the best individual creators in Doncic/Dinwiddie, which would make them a threat to do some postseason damage when the game becomes increasingly half court.
However, the flaw in examining Dinwiddie/Wood under the microscope like this is that all of the shot creation burden outside of Doncic shouldn’t be on their shoulders, yet it is. The addition of Kemba Walker was so crucial considering he could be an additional shot creator (80.4% of his attempts are off 2+ dribbles), but his knee injury brings into question his consistent availability. The problem Dallas faces is that their roster is structured around extremes, where only four key rotation players have >25% of their shot attempts coming off 2+ dribbles, and two of those players are fairly close to the threshold (Wood = 27.8%, Hardaway Jr. = 30.9%). Dallas’ other key rotation players, like Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, and Josh Green, are all under 25%. The scoring splits are rather the same, as evident below:
| 2+ Dribble Shot Frequency | % of FGM Unassisted | |
| Luka Doncic | 86.70% | 88.30% |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | 75.50% | 61.00% |
| Christian Wood | 27.30% | 25.40% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 30.90% | 20.70% |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 10.30% | 7.50% |
| Reggie Bullock | 4.10% | 5.10% |
| Dwight Powell | 4.00% | 14.10% |
| Josh Green | 23.30% | 13.30% |
Some may argue that Doncic’s heliocentric style contributes to such stark splits, but I believe that’s merely a symptom of the roster, rather than the root cause. Jalen Brunson last season, for example, wasn’t stiffened into an off-ball role; 73.7% of Brunson’s shot attempts a year ago came off 2+ dribbles and with New York this season, the mark has jumped to 80.3%. Perhaps players see a slight decrease in shot creation freedom playing alongside Doncic, but it’s not an area of their game that is sidelined. The Mavericks ultimately need to find that #2 guy, but finding that player mid-season while their draft picks are essentially locked for trade is nearly impossible. What is possible? Finding some short-term plugs who fit within a specific profile: 40%+ of shot attempts off 2+ dribbles, >30% of made field goals coming off unassisted looks and who won’t cost a price that would impact Dallas’ ability to land the #2 guy (aka no first round picks or Josh Green). Ideally, these players should be wings too; Dallas doesn’t necessarily even need to find isolation-type players, but even guys who can effectively attack a closeout would be huge. For as good as Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock are as standstill shooters, how little individual shot creation they offer both combined and individually does cap the roster’s ceiling.
Here are two guys who make sense:
Alec Burks (Detroit Pistons)
59.1% of shot attempts off 2+ dribbles, 52.5% of FGM unassisted
Alec Burks is my #1 realistic trade deadline target and it’s not particularly close. Burks likely won’t cost more than a few second-round picks to acquire and should be extremely available considering Detroit is rebuilding. Burks is having one of the best seasons of his career, but even so, he should be extremely attainable.
The intriguing thing about Burks is his individual shot creation ability. Burks exceeds our criteria (40% 2+ dribbles, 30% unassisted) by a wide margin and history tells us this isn’t a fluke either: those splits were 50.1/39.3 and 52.7/44.8 the prior two seasons. Burks is also a strong catch-and-shoot threat, knocking down 41.5% of catch-and-shoot threes this season, 41.2% last season, and 38.2% the year prior, all above league average. Burks has also been one of the most effective rebounders at his position according to Cleaning the Glass, as he’s ranked within the top 25% at his position for the past three seasons. Burks would be a perfect fit to plug into Dallas’ wing rotation, as he’d offer a different dimension than what Finney-Smith and Bullock currently provide.
Josh Richardson (San Antonio Spurs)
40.1% of shot attempts off 2+ dribbles, 36.3% of FGM unassisted
Welcoming an old friend back to Dallas, Josh Richardson is another target of mine. With an entirely new coaching staff in, I don’t think a reunion with Richardson is impossible. He really struggled during his season in Dallas, but also battled COVID early in the season and didn’t shoot well from 3-PT range. Richardson has never been a great 3-PT shooter, but I don’t think it was a coincidence that last season, following a horrible season from deep with Dallas, that he shot 41.1% on catch-and-shoot threes. Richardson is also still a good defender, particularly on guards, which would be a big help and lessen the burden on Reggie Bullock.
Richardson, like Burks, likely shouldn’t cost more than a few second-round picks. He’s a solid player who can be counted on for 16+ playoff minutes and considering the reasonable limitations Dallas has to upgrade their roster, he’s a strong fit. Richardson isn’t the shot creator or shooter that Burks is, but his splits are still very solid:
- 2021-22 Season: 38.5/29.9 splits, 41.1% catch-and-shoot 3s
- 2020-21 Season: 46.0/42.8 splits, 32.3% catch-and-shoot 3s
Strategic Choice #3: Capitalizing on Roster Flexibility
When the Mavericks traded Kristaps Porzingis for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans a year ago, the one consistent theme that both Nico Harrison and Mark Cuban harped on was the increased flexibility which the trade provided. Essentially, splitting Porzingis’ single salary into two, smaller salaries allowed Dallas to more easily make trades across the league due to salary matches. It’s an interesting idea and it was always a bit unreasonable to think Harrison was going to capitalize on the flexibility last offseason after Dallas’ surprising run to the Conference Finals, but it is something the Mavericks will have to attack within the next several months.
We’ve harped a lot on the need for a true #2 in Dallas and this summer, Dallas is in position to finally land that player. Assuming their first-round pick conveys to New York, Dallas will be able to trade all of their first-round picks and they have salaries at all ranges to match deals for the next disgruntled star. Would Zach LaVine come available in Chicago? How about Pascal Siakam in Toronto? Would Bradley Beal finally be ready to leave Washington? What about a surprise name, like Jimmy Butler or Damian Lillard? Dallas will be in as good of position as nearly any team in the league to capitalize because of their pick availability; recent blockbusters have shown us that teams are prioritizing picks over players in deals, as evident by:
- SA for Dejounte Murray: three first round picks, Danilo Gallinari
- UTAH for Rudy Gobert: five first round picks, pick swap, Vanderbilt/Beasley
- NO for Jrue Holiday: two first round picks, two pick swaps, Adams/Bledsoe
- HOU for James Harden: three first round picks, four pick swaps, Exum/Kurucs
It is totally conceivable that the Mavericks could package some combination of Hardaway Jr./Dinwiddie/Bullock and Bertans, for example, along with 3-5 picks/swaps, for a star this summer. Dallas is very much in position to significantly upgrade their roster.
While the path towards the #2 star is surprisingly quite clear, it is easier said than done, as Dallas surely won’t be the only team interested in Zach LaVine or others for example. Those players also could be traded mid-season, which would complicate Dallas’ ability to get involved. #2 star aside, the flexibility of the supporting cast doesn’t limit the Mavericks’ avenues for upgrades to one star player trade and then done. Dallas could look for deals similar to the Porzingis trade, where they take a temporary step backwards in order to propel further forwards.
One example we can draw on is Alec Burks; if Dallas were to land Burks for, say a few second-round picks and salary filler, could they then look to trade Tim Hardaway Jr. elsewhere? Burks alone wouldn’t elevate Dallas to title contention, but he could make a player like Hardaway Jr., who could fetch a solid return, somewhat expendable. Dallas’ on-court performance may dip by swapping Hardaway Jr. and Burks, but they’d subsequently gain better assets to play with in the summer. Those are the types of moves I wouldn’t be surprised if Nico Harrison explores in the coming weeks and truthfully, I think it’s a fairly wise gambit. It’s particularly interesting over the summer if Dallas were to theoretically land their #2 star; recouping some assets in the “temporary step backwards” trades could be an effective strategy in building the optimal roster around Doncic.
The Overall Mavericks’ Outlook
The Dallas Mavericks might not be a title contender this season, but there are no excuses as to why they shouldn’t be one for the next decade with Luka Doncic in tow. Dallas’ avenues to building a title roster aren’t as murky as they may seem either; they are well positioned to land a disgruntled star via trade and already have key pieces in place elsewhere on the roster, with 3-and-D wings (Finney-Smith & Bullock), solid tertiary offensive options (Dinwiddie & Wood), the optionality to play small (Maxi Kleber), and some promising young talent (Jaden Hardy & Josh Green). How Dallas handles the next several months, particularly around the three decisions outlined, could very well define the next 2-4 years of Luka’s tenure in Dallas, a timeframe where success will be measured by championships, not playoff berths.
The Chirp 