When the Dallas Mavericks walked off the NBA court for the final time in the 2021-22 season, it felt like it was just the beginning of their climb to being a legitimate, championship threat. No longer was Dallas a competitive first-round exit. They had established themselves as a worthy competitor in the Western Conference with young talent who had just gotten invaluable experience in a loss to the eventual champion, Golden State Warriors. The future was bright for the Mavericks and even with a completed season in the rear-view window, it felt like it was just the start for Dallas, not the end.
Alas, things change quickly in the NBA and Jalen Brunson, is now a New York Knick, agreeing to a reported 4-year, $104 million deal with a player option in the 4th year. It’s a major improvement of value for Brunson, who went from being a non-factor in the postseason against the Los Angeles Clippers to a $100M+ man in the span of 12 months, in large part because of his breakthrough playoff performances versus the Utah Jazz, Phoenix Suns, and the aforementioned Warriors this year. Brunson is the first player in NBA history to secure a $100M deal without making an All-Star team, but he very likely won’t be the last. In fact, Anfernee Simons has already joined him, and Tyler Herro is almost assuredly going to be added to that group in a few weeks. Brunson also gets to go home and play for the Knicks, the organization his dad played for in an arena where, in some respects, Jalen grew up. It’s a full-on family affair in fact, as Rick Brunson is an assistant coach with the Knicks, Rick’s agent, Leon Rose, is the Knicks’ General Manager (and reportedly Jalen’s godfather), and Leon’s son, Sam, is Jalen’s agent. Getting paid $26M annually to play in the most famous arena in the world with family? What a moment for Brunson. After years of extreme professionalism, funny content/banter for social media, and terrific, improved play, he will be dearly missed in Dallas.
For the Mavericks, it would be sugarcoating it to classify Brunson’s departure in any manner other than a disappointment. Brunson’s unrestricted status is a direct result of past General Manager Donnie Nelson’s decision to structure Brunson’s rookie contract into a 4-year deal without a team option, allowing him to bypass the typical restricted free agent route that nearly all rookies go through (as we’ve seen with Lu Dort and Mitchell Robinson this summer). As detailed from reporting by numerous sources as well (Tim MacMahon of ESPN, Tim Cato of The Athletic, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, etc.), the Mavericks seemingly had opportunities to extend Brunson prior to free agency, although I personally doubt the legitimacy of how “real” those opportunities were. Brunson was extension-eligible last summer for the first time, but he was coming off a poor postseason and an entire new coaching staff was brought in. I would’ve been comfortable giving him a 4/48 extension, but it’s hard to blame Dallas for not extending him last summer, especially since he was likely looking for something close to the max 4/55 extension. The other opportunity reportedly came in January/February this year, where Rick Brunson (Jalen’s dad) said they would’ve accepted a 4/55 extension if offered in January, but they declined that offer three weeks later after Dallas reportedly offered it post-trade deadline. It’s impossible to find a scenario where an NBA player has such an impressive three-week stretch in the middle of the regular season that they totally play themselves out of a price point, but that is clearly the notion Rick Brunson is insinuating. Frankly, I don’t blame the Mavericks delaying the extension to after the deadline and I also don’t buy Rick’s notion that Jalen would’ve signed it in January, but not February.
Although we did a partial one, it’s not worth doing a full autopsy of all the specific details that eventually led to Brunson leaving the Mavericks, but I do think regardless of Dallas’ offers/meetings, beating what New York could offer Brunson outside of the money would’ve been impossible. Tim Cato of The Athletic and Marc Stein both reported that money was “not the deciding factor”, making me believe that once the Knicks cleared the cap space to offer Brunson a 4/104 deal, he was basically gone. Essentially: once New York was able to field a competitive offer, the Mavericks didn’t have much of a chance.
Where Does Jalen Brunson’s Departure Leave Dallas?
When evaluating Brunson’s departure, one thing rings especially true to me: regardless of what you feel about Brunson’s contract, losing your second-best player, who so happens to be 26 years old and entering his prime, for nothing is an unequivocal disaster. Money seems to have not been a factor here, but I would’ve been comfortable having Brunson on a deal for as much as 5 years, $150 million. Even on a contract that grandiose, Dallas likely would’ve been able to extract some value via trade, if needed. Brunson is perhaps slightly overpaid at the 4/104 mark, but it’s a bit naive, in my opinion, to think he would be impossible to get traded for, at minimum, neutral value if needed. Brunson was arguably Dallas’ best trade chip on the roster, even for a $26M annual deal. Now, he’s gone
Yet, despite Brunson’s departure in a nutshell being an “unequivocal disaster”, I’m not sold on Dallas’ overall outlook being vastly different. I’m terminizing Brunson’s departure in such extreme terms because it’s hard to envision a scenario where Dallas properly replaces his production next season and they missed out on getting quality pieces in return for him, but do things really change for Dallas in the bigger picture? I have some thoughts on that:
Even with Jalen Brunson, Dallas would, optimistically, be 3rd in the West
- Even with Jalen Brunson on the roster, I can’t see a scenario where Dallas would be better than either the Golden State Warriors or Los Angeles Clippers next season. Sure, injuries or drastic moves can happen, but something drastic enough for Dallas to leapfrog both of those teams? That’s betting on a lot of chance and unforeseen circumstances. With Jalen Brunson, Dallas is realistically in the same tier as Phoenix, Memphis, Denver, and perhaps Minnesota, now that the Wolves have Rudy Gobert. Perhaps, they’re at the top of that tier, rather than the bottom, which I now think is a realistic spot to place them after losing Brunson.
Even with Jalen Brunson, Dallas’ ceiling is still probably the Conference Finals
- In a similar vein to the above point, I think it’s fair to say that Dallas’ roster probably hit their ceiling last season by making the Conference Finals. You’d have to go back to Dallas’ 2011 title to find the last time a team won the championship without a second player who was top-20 in the league (perhaps the 2014 Spurs were another). Champions are consistently made up of 2-3 top-20/30 players and very often have a few others within the top-60/70 boundaries as well. Even with Christian Wood and a healthy Tim Hardaway Jr., the Mavericks lack that top-end star power alongside Luka Doncic. They may have the requisite depth, but even with Brunson, they need greater talent at the top.
Jalen Brunson likely will never be the 2nd best player on an NBA Finals Champion
- This is a hard truth that I didn’t enjoy typing, as I like to consider myself one of Jalen Brunson’s biggest fans. I think Brunson is a fantastic player, but there’s a big difference between being fantastic and being a legitimate superstar. Even if Brunson takes on the career trajectory of a Fred VanVleet or Mike Conley, that player is quite likely not going to be a good enough #2 to win the NBA Finals with, even with the greatness of Luka Doncic. Dallas needs someone in the mold of a Khris Middleton, probably at minimum, for their #2 guy alongside Doncic. Brunson very likely won’t ever be that player. By keeping Brunson at a number north of $25M, Dallas would’ve been paying Brunson as a #2 guy, even though he very likely would never become one.
This isn’t me saying the Mavericks made the right decision on Jalen Brunson (they didn’t). But I think Dallas’ long-term outlook remains true: they need to significantly improve the roster around Luka Doncic and, to put a full optimistic spin zone on it, a $27M Jalen Brunson contract quite possibly could’ve limited their ability to do so. Dallas will take a short-term hit on their performance, but I think their biggest decline will come in games where Luka rests/misses, rather than games when Luka plays.
How Can Dallas Pivot Appropriately?
After the Mavericks signed JaVale McGee to, as Tim Cato reported the full taxpayer MLE (which reserves second round pick Jaden Hardy only a minimum contract), Dallas’ roster currently looks like this:
Guards (5): Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jaden Hardy, Frank Ntilikina
Wings (4): Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, Josh Green, Theo Pinson
Bigs (5): Christian Wood, Maxi Kleber, JaVale McGee, Dwight Powell, Davis Bertans
Dallas only has one roster spot remaining (and both two-way spots), but I’d bet on a transactional move in the coming days to free more space. For starters, I’d pencil in Goran Dragic onto the roster; after all, Dragic came out of retirement from international play to go back on Slovenia’s team with Luka this summer. Do we really believe he’s not going to wind up in Dallas, especially since the Mavericks need another shot creator to replace some of Brunson’s production? Dallas could waive Frank Ntilikina, who has a non-guaranteed contract, but I personally think that wouldn’t be a wise move. Ntilikina had some great moments during last year’s postseason against the Phoenix Suns where he played some terrific defense against Devin Booker. Ntilikina turns 24 July 28th and is a solid end-of-bench guy, especially at a valuable position with a niche role.
The easy opportunity to clear a roster spot comes in the frontcourt, especially after the signing of JaVale McGee, a move I’m a bit confused by. Dwight Powell certainly isn’t the long-term answer at the center position, but McGee certainly isn’t either. McGee is the better player; he should give Dallas, if nothing else, a major upgrade on the glass and with rim protection than Powell. But McGee was also played off the court by the Mavericks in the postseason and Dallas had ample success going small with five shooters on the court against opponents. It’s hard to see where/how McGee fits into a postseason rotation for Dallas, especially since their best lineups are likely to be with Maxi Kleber or Christian Wood at the center position. It’s not a bad move by any means, but the taxpayer MLE was Dallas’ primary method to upgrade the roster this summer and they utilized it on a player at a non-premium position who’s unlikely to play more than 16-20 MPG.
McGee’s signing does clog the frontcourt and if I had to guess, Nico Harrison is probably aiming at some trade package for either Dwight Powell or Davis Bertans. I still can’t really envision Dallas truly trading Powell, but I also can’t see a scenario where a team takes on Bertans’ salary either. It’s tough for me to ideate where this is going, but it’s clear the Mavericks need additional wing depth, even if I think Josh Green can take another step this season. The Indiana Pacers feel like a potential Dwight Powell landing spot due to his connection to Rick Carlisle; could a sign-and-trade with TJ Warren be a possibility, with Powell and a small asset (be it a 2nd round pick or Frank Ntilikina) headed back to Indiana? The Philadelphia 76ers are also a team that could use some frontcourt depth behind Joel Embiid, although that’s a tougher deal to make work due to varying contracts and Dallas likely wanting to clear a roster spot.
Looking into next year, if we tentatively assume that Goran Dragic fills Dallas’ last roster spot, I’d probably pencil the Mavericks in around 6th or 7th in the Western Conference. Golden State, Los Angeles (Clippers), Phoenix, Denver, and Memphis are definitely better, although perhaps with Jaren Jackson Jr.’s injury, the Mavericks could wind up with a better record. But, even with the Timberwolves acquiring Rudy Gobert, I’m not sold that they’ll definitely be a better team than Dallas.
Taking the Long View…
In the coming weeks, I’ll dive much deeper into what Dallas’ holistic roster building strategy should be, but it’s evident they need greater top-end talent alongside Luka Doncic. However, as a little “sneak peek”, here are a few of my quick thoughts:
- Dallas’ roster currently lacks any true #2 guy; if they didn’t pay Jalen Brunson, they shouldn’t pay any of their players #2 money. Therefore, with Christian Wood hitting free agency at the end of this season, Dallas will need to be picky on what a new contract looks like, if one is negotiated at all. A resurgent season from Wood, particularly in the first half, could make him a valuable trade chip to dangle at the deadline to either a contender, or as a piece to a larger deal. Truthfully, I have a tough time envisioning Wood being a long-term piece for the Mavericks, but he’s likely their best trade asset at the moment.
- While I was extremely critical of it at the time, the Kristaps Porzingis trade to Washington will end up being incredibly useful for Dallas going forwards. Splitting up KP’s deal into two smaller contracts gives Dallas ample flexibility to swing a variety of deals, but also, the nature of Spencer Dinwiddie’s contract in particular makes him a valuable trade chip next summer. Dinwiddie is guaranteed $10M of his $18.3M salary for next season; we just saw the Atlanta Hawks deal Danilo Gallinari and three first-round picks for Dejounte Murray. Dallas will be in position to offer a similar type of deal next summer for a star; three first-round picks (assuming the pick to NYK conveys), along with Dinwiddie’s partially guaranteed contract.
- The salary cap is anticipated to rise by 10% next season which will make Tim Hardaway Jr.’s descending salary deal even more valuable as a trade piece. His contract, along with Dinwiddie’s partial guarantee, gives Dallas a ton of optionality to swing a big trade next summer.
- The Mavericks won’t have cap space to spend next summer, but with the possibility of a big trade and likely 2024 cap space, Dallas will have an opportunity to double up on high-end talent the next two summers if they play their cards right, which will likely entail:
- Leveraging some combination of Dinwiddie, Hardaway Jr., and draft picks for one top-end talent
- Utilizing cap space the following summer for another top-end talent (likely means dumping Bertans contract, which will be expiring at that point)
Losing Jalen Brunson isn’t ideal, but Dallas currently doesn’t boast a roster that can topple the presumed NBA favorites. More work is needed to be done and while not getting any asset for Brunson stings (badly), the Mavericks are still in decent shape to properly form that elite-level roster around Doncic within the next two seasons. I don’t anticipate the Mavericks to take a massive step backwards on the court, assuming Luka’s health, but a lot hinges on Spencer Dinwiddie’s level of play. A strong season from Dinwiddie not only stabilizes Dallas and likely allows them to avoid the play-in, but it also makes him an extremely valuable trade chip the following summer, where Dallas could be in prime position to find the Robin to Luka’s Batman, whether that be a swing for Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard forcing out of Portland, or a Dejounte Murray-like surprise player.
The Chirp 