The NBA Trade Deadline is quietly one of the most exciting days of the year. Usually, it consists of Adrian Wojnarowski and Shams Charania engaging in what we’d call “Twitter Warfare”, both firing off bombs (in Woj’s case, literally “Woj Bombs”) as trades flow through on Thursday afternoons. This season, there’s been quite a bit of rumbling headed into Thursday, although if recent deadline days are any example, we should temper our expectations a bit. Major blockbuster deals can happen during the season, and near the deadline, but they have become increasingly rare. In fact, trades involving superstars are either slow developing and reach a fever pitch early in the season or take place during the off-season. Last season, Nikola Vucevic was the biggest name to be dealt around the deadline (James Harden was traded significantly earlier). The year prior, it was the Andrew Wiggins/D’Angelo Russell swap. Over the past few seasons, perhaps the best example of a superstar deal going down right at the deadline could have been Blake Griffin to Detroit or Kristaps Porzingis to Dallas; to be fair, calling either a superstar is a bit of a stretch also. Simply put, the trade deadline is usually a time where teams fortify their rosters at the margins, not swing for the fences in a massive deal. Could this be the year when things change?
So far, we’ve already seen two pretty substantial deals go down. The Los Angeles Clippers netted Robert Covington and Norman Powell for a relatively slim package of Eric Bledsoe, Justise Winslow, Keon Johnson and a 2nd round pick, and the Cleveland Cavaliers acquired Caris LeVert for Ricky Rubio, CLE’s 1st round pick (lottery-protected), and two 2nd round picks, including Houston’s 2nd rounder this year which is close to a first-round pick. Considering how wide-open the league is this year, I do expect plenty of deals to go down–the question now becomes, how aggressive will teams be?
Teams Who Will Dictate the Deadline
Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks are starting to come around, winning 8 of their last 10 headed into Sunday’s game in Dallas. The Hawks have the 4th best net rating in that stretch as well and part of it has coincided with the return of DeAndre Hunter, Atlanta’s best perimeter defender. The Hawks are a really interesting team; by and large, this current group of players have not experienced as much success as you’d imagine in the regular season (66-58 dating back to last season), but their run to the Conference Finals should not be overlooked. Still, it’s fair to wonder how high Atlanta’s ceiling truly is. The Hawks played a weak #4 seed last year in the New York Knicks (who have predictably underwhelmed this year) and then surprisingly beat the 76ers in seven games, despite being outscored by a total of 20 points for the series. Outside of Trae Young, Atlanta is very much a “by committee” approach for generating half-court offense, which simply is not sustainable to legitimately expect deep playoff runs. In my opinion, the Hawks need to start consolidating some of their pieces, which feels like something Travis Schlenk is eyeing as well heading into Thursday.
Numerous Hawks have been involved in trade rumors as of late, but none more than forward John Collins, who’s on a fresh 5 year, $125M deal. Collins was terrific for Atlanta during their postseason run last season, but over the past two regular seasons, we have two reports of his relative frustration with Atlanta. Collins is a good player, and his contract is fairly reasonable, making him valuable on the trade market. Personally, Collins feels like one of the more realistic dominoes to fall. The San Antonio Spurs are a potential fit and it’s easy to see how a trade could materialize between clubs:
The Hawks will likely simultaneously try to operate as both a buyer and a seller, likely attempting to shed some salaries (possibly Danilo Gallinari) while remaining in pursuit of players ready to help them win this season. The Collins/Derrick White swap above fits the bill but expect them to shop players like Bogdan Bogdanovic and Gallinari as well. If I were Travis Schlenk, I’d be rather aggressive in trying to trade Clint Capela, considering the Hawks have Onyeka Okongwu behind him and could unleash more John Collins at center lineups.
The Hawks will be one of, if not the main team, to monitor in the week ahead. They have plenty of tradeable pieces and seem intent on being aggressive.
Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets are in free fall mode, as they are losers of eight straight and now in serious danger of being a play-in tournament team. Sure, this cold stretch has come while Kevin Durant has been out (combined with Kyrie Irving’s “part time” availability and James Harden’s new injury), but the Nets are not built to withstand injuries. They are the most top-heavy team in the league, a flaw even more exacerbated by Kyrie Irving’s inability to play in home games. Things are officially gloomy in Brooklyn, especially now with new fuel surrounding a James Harden trade. Recent history tells us a Ben Simmons/James Harden deal at this stage of the season would be rather unprecedented, but right now, it feels like there’s enough smoke that there could be fire. If I were Sean Marks, I’d seriously consider it.
Ultimately, it would be a massive surprise if the Nets didn’t make a trade. The problem is, they’re so thin on tradeable assets that they aren’t likely to land a significant, impact player to turn the tide of their season. Paul Millsap’s $2.6M salary is likely to be moved (considering reports they are willing to find a new home) and Bruce Brown could garner some interest as well. But, outside of swapping minimum contracts, it’s hard to see where the Nets could make some noise aside from trading the injured Joe Harris. Would Washington entertain a Kentavious Caldwell-Pope + Montrezl Harrell for Joe Harris, Jevon Carter, and Paul Millsap deal? The Pelicans are also a potential landing spot for Harris; is Garrett Temple + Josh Hart for Harris a fair deal? These are the kind of option that could present themselves to Brooklyn *if* they’d consider dealing Harris, something we don’t yet know.
The Nets are going to be active on Thursday and personally, I think a Harden deal would be a necessary jolt for them. Brooklyn could surely land Ben Simmons and some combination of Tyrese Maxey or Matisse Thybulle, plus some picks. Personally, I think a deal like this provides a solid framework, with maybe an adjustment of the picks Philadelphia sends (perhaps a 2022 first and a lottery-protected 2024, or removal of the 2024 first)
A deal like this would save the Nets a ton in luxury tax payments and net them two of the best defenders in basketball, plus replenish their draft chest a bit. Purely from a Brooklyn perspective, it would be incredibly hard to turn down an offer like that.
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers have been a massive disappointment this season, sitting 13th in the Eastern Conference with a 19-35 record. Rick Carlisle is a terrific X’s and O’s coach, but even he has not been able to get Indiana close to their ceiling. Nobody would deny the talent on the Pacers’ roster, but for whatever reason, it simply hasn’t worked. Carlisle is now the Pacers’ third coach in three seasons and the team has gotten progressively worked. It seems like a fire sale (or at least, a partial fire sale) is in order, one that started with Caris LeVert being dealt to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Domantas Sabonis has been a hot name in trade circles and, outside of James Harden/Ben Simmons, he could be the biggest name moved. Myles Turner seemed like a lock to be dealt before his foot injury, which now puts his status into question. Expect some teams to try and poach some guys off the fringes of Indiana’s roster as well; Justin Holiday is a strong 3-and-D wing who could be a nice addition to any hopeful contender, while Jeremy Lamb is on an expiring contract and, in the past, has shown to be a quality scorer.
Right now, it feels like the Sabonis rumor mill hasn’t had a ton of traction. Rumor has it that the Washington Wizards will be aggressive in trying to fortify their roster in advance of Bradley Beal’s free agency this summer, making the Wizards a possible landing spot. I’d argue them or the Kings probably make the most sense for a Sabonis trade, but the San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics, and Memphis Grizzlies are additional fits. If the Wizards jump in (something I could envision, similar to Vucevic to Chicago last year), I’d imagine a deal may look something like this:
This is a fairly similar return to what the Orlando Magic got for Nikola Vucevic a year ago (young player–Wendell Carter Jr., plus two first-round picks).
As for Myles Turner, I think it’s still feasible he’s dealt before Thursday, it’ll just be for a depressed return. Overall, I think an off-season deal is more plausible, but a team like the Toronto Raptors makes a lot of sense as a landing spot. Toronto desperately needs more frontcourt help and Turner’s style makes a lot of sense. In fact, I’d argue the Raptors/Pacers are in a very unique trade spot because of a player who’s barely seen the court this year: Goran Dragic. Dragic has been away from the Raptors for months and the situation sure feels somewhat similar to that of Andre Iguodala and the Memphis Grizzlies. Toronto can leverage Dragic’s salary and attach say, a lottery-protected first, for Myles Turner, a deal that feels somewhat fair. Indiana nets a pick that could convey this year while Toronto gets an impact center for next year if he can’t return this season. If the Raptors don’t make that deal now, it’ll become more difficult this off-season to match the salaries.
Long story short, the Pacers have one of the most realistic, large dominoes (Domantas Sabonis), a wild card (Myles Turner), and one plug-and-play veteran (Justin Holiday) that should be fielding plenty of calls. I anticipate the Pacers making, at the very minimum, one more deal, but wouldn’t be surprised if we see all of Sabonis, Turner, Holiday, and Lamb traded.
Portland Trail Blazers
Another team that’s already been active, it sure feels like the Portland Trail Blazers aren’t yet done. There’s been significant smoke that C.J. McCollum could be the next Blazer traded and by all accounts, this one adds up. Anfernee Simons has established himself as a legitimate starter who’s due for restricted free agency this summer; paying Damian Lillard, McCollum, and Simons what would likely amount to nearly $90M combined on an annual basis is a nightmare scenario. Simons is significantly younger than McCollum and, considering the Lillard/McCollum backcourt has clearly run its course, it makes sense to move on now. The New Orleans Pelicans have been the most heavily connected team for McCollum, but I’d keep an eye out for the New York Knicks as well. New Orleans is the more appealing destination from Portland’s standpoint, however, and a potential trade could look like this:
Yes, this would be a seven (7!) player deal, which are rather rare, but to make salaries work, it would likely take that many. Josh Hart, Jaxson Hayes, and Kira Lewis Jr. is a worthwhile trio for Portland, plus two good picks makes this deal a no-brainer for them. For New Orleans, it’s a home run as well; Josh Hart’s contract is a prime trade chip, Jaxson Hayes is blocked by Jonas Valanciunas and Kira Lewis Jr. has yet to make a substantial impact. A deal like this makes plenty of sense for both parties.
However, I’m not sure Portland’s dealings could end with C.J. McCollum. Jusuf Nurkic is on an expiring contract and plenty of teams need help at center, including Toronto, Charlotte and Washington. The Hornets are an intriguing landing spot for Nurkic and a change of scenery for former lottery pick P.J. Washington makes sense. I could see a package matriculating around Washington + Ish Smith for Nurkic. If the Blazers really wanted to blow things up, I bet Larry Nance Jr. would have some trade value as well. The uncertainty in Portland long-term, combined with a team that is incentivized to slide out of the play-in spot, make the Blazers a sneaky fire sale team come Thursday.
Washington Wizards
The last team that could dictate the deadline comes in our nation’s capital. As mentioned earlier, Washington’s seeming intent to bolster their roster for Bradley Beal could make them quite aggressive this week. We already analyzed the potential to land Domantas Sabonis, but the Wizards could opt for the Atlanta Hawks method and operate as buyers/sellers. Surely, Washington should be aggressive in pursuing someone like Sabonis or even Jerami Grant for the Pistons, but they can be equally as aggressive in selling off pieces like Spencer Dinwiddie (who has reportedly clashed in Washington with other Wizards), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Montrezl Harrell. The Wizards have an ideal array of contracts to make a variety of deals work–truthfully, Tommy Sheppard is going to be in the hot seat this week.
If I were Tommy Sheppard, I’d certainly have my eye on Sabonis and Grant, but I’d also be looking hard at hedging against a Beal departure this summer. The Wizards simply don’t have the assets to acquire Ben Simmons and while Sabonis/Grant are nice players, they’re not worth multiple first-round selections (in my opinion) while your franchise player could bounce in five months. Washington should wait to see Beal’s decision before pushing their chips towards the middle, but I’m not sure Sheppard/Washington feel the same. Still, I’d bet a few contenders would be quite eager to snag Caldwell-Pope and Harrell, two players who could net a nice return of picks. Making some smaller moves would be my preferred option.
Ultimately, I think the Wizards could be the surprise team to make a lot of noise this week. It all depends how fearful they are of Bradley Beal’s departure, but this is not an envious spot for Sheppard to be in. The Wizards are also hovering on a play-in spot, meaning the risk of going for a Sabonis trade could potentially cost them a lottery pick as well. We’ll learn a lot about Sheppard’s risk tolerance in the next 96-120 hours.
Names to Keep an Eye On
Dennis Schroder (Boston Celtics)
It would make a good deal of sense if the Boston Celtics dealt Dennis Schroder in advance of Thursday’s deadline. The Celtics are just $1.7M over the luxury tax and surely would like to dip under (and subsequently receive a record payout from the luxury tax offenders later this year). Schroder will be out of Boston’s price range this summer, making it a similar situation to last year when the Celtics dealt Daniel Theis. The question now becomes, what team would be interested in Schroder? The Dallas Mavericks make sense on paper: they have a trade exception they can absorb Schroder into, plus need some more scoring with Tim Hardaway Jr. out indefinitely due to a foot injury. Still, the Mavericks have seemingly had ample opportunities to acquire Schroder in the past and never made the move; could things change now that Jason Kidd is at the helm (remember, Schroder and Kidd crossed paths with the Lakers last season). If not Dallas, then perhaps Brooklyn or New Orleans would bite. I thought the Cleveland Cavaliers made a ton of sense (and, perhaps they still do), but the Caris LeVert deal may lessen their need for a player like Schroder.
Collin Sexton (Cleveland Cavaliers)
It’s been extremely quiet on the Collin Sexton front, but if you want a sneaky name who could be dealt, I think he’s your guy. Sexton’s injury has opened up the floor for Darius Garland to get a major opportunity and he has ran with it. Garland received his first All-Star selection this year and it feels extremely unlikely that the Cavaliers are going to continue with the Sexton/Garland backcourt. Sexton is due for restricted free agency this summer, so a team trading for Sexton now would be able to match any offer he receives this summer. It would make a ton of sense for a team willing to take a flyer to bite on a Sexton deal and surely the Cavaliers are still in search of further roster additions considering their incredible season. Could a team like New Orleans be interested in Sexton? A Sexton + Cedi Osman for Josh Hart + Nickeil Alexander-Walker/Garrett Temple deal works on paper. Would the Washington Wizards bite on a Sexton deal, perhaps a larger framework that sends Sexton + Osman to Washington for Spencer Dinwiddie + Corey Kispert? There are a few intriguing landing spots for Sexton in the market and right now, I think the Cavaliers will surely be shopping him around.
Jalen Brunson & Dorian Finney-Smith (Dallas Mavericks)
The Dallas Mavericks are in a really unique position at the deadline. Jalen Brunson has arguably been Dallas’ 2nd best player this season, but the contract malpractice committed by Dallas’ front office means he’s headed for restricted free agency this summer, where he could realistically get a $20M contract elsewhere. The Mavericks will be in the luxury tax if they pay Brunson and will be even deeper if they also re-sign Dorian Finney-Smith, who’s quietly become one of the best 3-and-D wings in the NBA. In a way, it makes plenty of sense for the Mavericks to trade one or both of the players, as it would be hard to re-sign both and they cannot afford to lose either for nothing. The problem? This has been Dallas’ best team since Luka Doncic has been drafted and their much-improved defense gives them a legitimate chance to make a deep playoff run in the wide-open Western Conference. No, they are not at the level of a Golden State or Phoenix, but I think there’s a legitimate case to be made that they are the 3rd best team in the West. Jalen Brunson has basically been in the 80th percentile (or above) in both pick-and-roll and isolation plays this year, indicating how Dallas now has the necessary shot creation in the half court to be a legitimate threat. Knowing how much Mark Cuban and the Mavericks love to keep their homegrown guys, I’d be stunned if either are traded. But, don’t count it out.
Jerami Grant (Detroit Pistons)
Jerami Grant seemed like he was going to be the biggest name dealt at the deadline for a while, but now, it feels like he won’t get traded at all. Grant has an incredibly close relationship with Pistons’ General Manager Troy Weaver and Detroit is likely asking for the moon for Grant. Nearly any contending team could use him, namely Chicago, but I’d be surprised (at this point) if Grant got dealt.
Eric Gordon (Houston Rockets)
Eric Gordon could be one of the more underrated acquisitions at the deadline. Gordon’s game is commonly confused by national pundits; he isn’t the knockdown shooter people think he is, but rather, is a terrific shot creator/slasher who can also play high-level defense in spurts. Gordon would be a huge boost to a team in need of more shot creation/attack to the basket. The Dallas Mavericks, on paper, make sense for Gordon, but it’s hard to see how they can match salaries while providing Houston with some appealing assets. I’d keep an eye out for Utah here; with Joe Ingles’ injury, the Jazz really need some more wing depth. Gordon can add some much-needed perimeter defense while giving the Jazz another shot creator. The Memphis Grizzlies are another option as well.
Terrence Ross (Orlando Magic)
Terrence Ross is a microwave-style scorer who will surely garner plenty of trade interest. The Magic have resisted past deals for Ross, but now seems like a good time to split ways considering the depth Orlando has in the backcourt. Ross would fit a need for plenty of teams; the Brooklyn Nets would probably love to get him (even though it’ll be beyond tough), as would the Los Angeles Lakers. Perhaps the Lakers have enough to grab Ross and I’d keep my eye out for Los Angeles, Memphis, and possibly Philadelphia here. The 76ers have a few sharpshooters on the wing (Seth Curry, Furkan Korkmaz, Georges Niang, Danny Green), but Ross gives them the added dimension of being able to create for himself a bit. He’d be nice insurance for a bench unit that really struggled last postseason.
Buddy Hield & Harrison Barnes (Sacramento Kings)
The Sacramento Kings have been mentioned a lot in trade rumors and to aggregate them all together, it feels like they’ll be very active aside from trading De’Aaron Fox or Tyrese Haliburton (smart choice, I’d say). Sacramento is still in the play-in hunt (just 1.5 GB of 10th), but they’re 13th in the conference. This current roster has run its course and Monte McNair is an analytically-driven executive who surely won’t sit around. If Jerami Grant is unavailable for trade, Harrison Barnes immediately becomes the best “3-and-D+” player on the market. The economics game could benefit Sacramento a ton here, as there is relative scarcity in the wing market this trade deadline, at least for wings who can score 16+ a game, shoot 37%+ from deep, and defend at a high level. Barnes has a ton of value and I’d bet he’d be an extremely hot commodity. The Milwaukee Bucks would be a ridiculous fit if they had the assets and I’d bet Utah would get very aggressive too.
As for Buddy Hield, he’s seemingly been shopped by Sacramento forever. Hield is one of the game’s best shooters, but he’s also a huge negative on the defensive end and his effort certainly fluctuates at times. The Los Angeles Lakers seemed to have a Hield trade set until the 11th hour, and I’d bet they’d love a redo there. Hield still makes sense for Los Angeles, but what do they have to offer? The Lakers could build around Kendrick Nunn and Talen Horton-Tucker but would have to add in two additional contracts to make the money work. A lot of teams could use Buddy Hield and he’s been available for like three years now. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was dealt.
Teams That Most Need to Make a Trade
Los Angeles Lakers: The Los Angeles Lakers have been a colossal disappointment this season and, at this point, feel destined for the play-in tournament. The problem is the Lakers are kind of stuck with this roster as well; Russell Westbrook is absolutely untradeable, and Talen Horton-Tucker is simply not appealing enough as an asset to make a notable deal with. Still, the Lakers have to do something, even if it’s as silly as making a move just to change the energy up. Moe Harkless, a good defensive wing, is probably available from Sacramento. Even a move as minor as that makes some sense. If the Lakers could get Harkless and, say Terrence Ross at the deadline, it’s a massive win.
Philadelphia 76ers: We haven’t talked much about the Philadelphia 76ers today, but considering how dominant Joel Embiid has been, it’s extremely apparent Daryl Morey cannot sit back this week. Morey seems content at running the Ben Simmons saga into the ground and the James Harden rumors perhaps add some life to a deal. If a Harden trade doesn’t come to fruition, however, the 76ers still need to be bold. For as good as Tyrese Maxey has been this year, it’s a tall ask requesting he serves as the 76ers #2 option for creating offense in the postseason. If Morey still waits on a Simmons trade, it makes some sense for the 76ers to see what a package built around Tyrese Maxey could get them. Philadelphia, even if it’s wishful thinking, could build a new “Big Three” by conducting two separate blockbusters: one built around a Maxey package and another built around Ben Simmons. If I’m Daryl Morey, I’m going after the obvious stars, but I’m also strongly considering C.J. McCollum. Some other names I’d be going after (who are admittedly a steep step lower): Eric Gordon, Derrick White, Terrence Ross, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. The 76ers need more shot creation and if they can get a two-way guy, even better. Being idle while Embiid has this season is borderline malpractice.
Utah Jazz: We’ve already mentioned how Brooklyn badly needs a deal, so for our final team, I’ll throw a curveball: the Utah Jazz. Utah started out red hot (28-10), but they’ve really struggled since, going just 4-11 in their last fifteen. Yes, COVID protocols and injuries have played a noticeable role, but did anybody really think the Jazz were good enough to beat Phoenix or Golden State before this run? Utah’s style has been exposed for the past few postseasons and last year, their Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert was rendered unplayable by the Los Angeles Clippers’ small ball. With Joe Ingles’ injury, Utah’s 2nd best perimeter defender is gone, and the Jazz don’t have much depth behind him. The Jazz desperately need a deal to add more perimeter defense, wing depth, and a new energy to the roster. Harrison Barnes is the dream option here, but smaller stop gaps like Justin Holiday, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Josh Hart (he’s a tier above), and Eric Gordon must also be considered. If the Jazz squander again this season, I think it’s realistic to assume massive changes could be on the way this summer.
The Chirp 