It sure feels like when the New Year turns, college basketball begins to pick up. With college football winding down to two remaining games (LSU/Kansas State and the National Championship) and conference play beginning in college hoops, focus may begin to shift to the hardwood. While COVID remains a force to deal with, namely with COVID-related absences, postponements, and in past cases, “forfeits”, it has been a great college basketball season so far, one that has been devoid of a true top team. Multiple teams have had a crack at holding down the #1 spot in the AP Poll, although none have held the mantle for a terribly long time. The Gonzaga Bulldogs had a grip on it to begin the year, only to lose to a talented Duke Blue Devils team in November. Yet, Duke’s time as top dog was even shorter, as they were upset in Columbus by the Ohio State Buckeyes just a few days later. Purdue then took control, only to fall at the RAC against Rutgers, leading us to the current situation of the Baylor Bears #1 in the AP Poll. As always, greater clarity should emerge in the coming weeks that will help shuffle through the top-end of the poll, but as of now, it feels like there is terrific balance at the top of college hoops this year.
How Serious are the Baylor Bears?
The Baylor Bears won the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship a year ago, beating a previously undefeated Gonzaga squad in dominant fashion. Scott Drew saw four key players depart due to graduation/pro aspirations afterwards: Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Mark Vital. Since Scott Drew arrived, he has orchestrated one of the greatest turnarounds in college basketball history. Yet, it feels fair to say that prior to last season, Baylor had yet to crack the echelon of being an “elite” program. After losing so much production from last year’s title squad only to reach #1 in the AP Poll this year, it sure feels like Drew and the Bears’ name belongs in that “elite” level.
While the names may look different for Baylor this year, their key principles remain the same. They play an aggressive, hounding style of defense predicated on aggressive switching and preventing opponents from getting to the middle. Baylor’s entire starting five are all averaging at least one steal per game and as a team, the Bears rank 3rd in steal percentage. Arizona transfer James Akinjo has been particularly impactful defensively, ranking 15th in steals per game. Akinjo has lightning-quick hands, and his game resembles that of former Baylor guard, Jared Butler. ESPN’s Fran Fraschilla called him the “Kyle Lowry of college basketball” on Saturday’s broadcast, where he was extremely impressive in a tough, road victory against a previously undefeated Iowa State team. If Baylor is for real, they’ll need Akinjo at his best.
In addition to Akinjo and Baylor’s swarming defense, the one thing that’s apparent is Baylor’s versatility on the perimeter. College basketball is quite different than the NBA due to a variety of factors: the 3-PT line is not as deep, there is no defensive three seconds, and many power programs have been able to beat opponents due to sheer size. However, over recent seasons, we’ve begun to see a shift where power programs’ size advantage has become neutralized by deep, talented perimeter teams. Truthfully, I’d argue this shift started with Jay Wright and Villanova, particularly their 2018 championship team that starred Jalen Brunson. Even with rules that make size more advantageous at the college level, many clubs without access to the best physical players on the planet have found ways to compete and beat those same programs due to perimeter play and embracing a more modern style.
Scott Drew’s team this year is, once again a perfect example of that. Baylor has some size up front in Flo Thamba and Jon Tchamwa Tchatchoua, but they have a plethora of talented backcourt scorers and shooters (Akinjo, leading scorer LJ Cryer, Adam Flagler), and two mobile, versatile wings (5-star Kendall Brown, Matthew Mayer). The Bears aren’t reliant on interior play and rarely dump the ball inside for post-ups. Instead, their offense is predicated on swinging the ball, guards breaking down defenders, and efficient shot-taking and making. Scott Drew is just beginning to recruit at an elite level but seeing what he’s been able to do the past few years makes it a scary proposition of what could happen as Drew is able to convince more top-50 prospects to come to Waco.
As for this year, I’m not sold on Baylor truly being the best team in college basketball: they had a thoroughly dominant win over Villanova that was extremely impressive and a great road win over Iowa State this weekend, but I think the Bears lack the star power of last year’s squad, where Davion Mitchell was often the best player on the court. Baylor is still quite good and is very much in the title conversation, but I’m still a bit skeptical on Baylor being the last team remaining. We’ll learn a lot more about this team in late January/early February, when they visit Alabama and Kansas on consecutive Saturdays.
How Far Can Jabari Smith Lead the Auburn Tigers?
The Auburn Tigers tipped off SEC play in dominant fashion last week by dominating LSU from start to finish. Auburn has recently gotten their talented wing, Allen Flanigan, back from injury as well, making this a really dangerous team. The Tigers’ lone loss was to UConn in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, a game Auburn lost in 2OT despite UConn shooting 57.7% from deep. Auburn hasn’t necessarily played a murderer’s row of opponents, but they have two true road victories (South Florida, Saint Louis) and neutral site victories over Loyola Chicago, Syracuse, and Nebraska. Bruce Pearl made the Final Four back during the 2018-19 season with a talented backcourt of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown (along with Chuma Okeke), but this year’s squad sees its biggest strength up front with potential top-3 pick Jabari Smith and North Carolina transfer, Walker Kessler.
Jabari Smith has been perhaps the most impressive player in college basketball so far this season. While many dubbed this year’s #1 pick selection as a “two-man” race between Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren and Duke’s Paolo Banchero, Smith has quickly asserted himself as not only a player in the race, but arguably the frontrunner. And truthfully, it’s tough to argue that when stuff like this happens every game:
Smith is extremely fluid at 6’10 and consistently rises up above defenders off the dribble from beyond the arc. Smith is one of the best shot creators in the country and truthfully, you could argue he’s the best at getting his own. Despite the relative difficulty of that attempt (and others that Smith shoots), he’s hitting threes at a ridiculous 42.9% clip. And on top of all of that, he’s an impact defender as well, racking up 1.7 SPG and 0.9 BPG while forming a dominant interior duo with Walker Kessler. Smith is certainly talented enough to carry Auburn through the SEC, but rarely do we see one guy lead a team to a championship. Is Auburn good enough as a whole to make another Final Four run?
Right now, my answer leans yes, although I wouldn’t bet on them to actually get that far. Walker Kessler, a 5-star recruit who showed flashes at North Carolina last year, is one of the best shot blockers in the country. Kessler sported a triple double against LSU in rare fashion, accomplishing the feat with 11 blocks. Kessler isn’t much of an offensive threat, but he’s active on the glass and a good lob threat inside. The Tigers do have plenty of scoring in the backcourt, however. K.D. Johnson, Auburn’s second leading scorer, is a transfer from Georgia, while backcourt mate Wendell Green Jr. is a transfer from Eastern Kentucky. Both are averaging 12.0+ PPG while providing the tenacious defense that’s become a staple of Bruce Pearl’s teams in Auburn. As Flanigan gets his feet underneath him, it’s easy to envision the plethora of talent Auburn will have available in their starting five. There’s plenty more talent on the roster as well, including Devan Cambridge, Zep Jasper, and Jaylin Williams.
The Tigers are certainly talented, but their ceiling remains in question. A common trait we often see is experienced teams win championships and right now, the Tigers lack a lot of seniority. Jasper is the most senior player who gets consistent rotation minutes, but he’s a transfer from Charleston who doesn’t have any more experience being at Auburn than Jabari Smith does. It’s impressive that Pearl has gotten the Tigers off to such a hot start with such a new roster coming in (and with Flanigan sidelined), but their lack of experience may hurt them was we progress deeper into March. The SEC is incredibly deep this year and I’m interested to see how Auburn handles some tough road games. A good one upcoming? January 11th in Tuscaloosa. That will be a good litmus test for Pearl’s squad.
We Sleep in May… Which is Needed for the West Coast
Jon Rothstein’s legendary “We Sleep in May” saying especially rings true this year, as finally the West Coast is loaded with top teams. As of Saturday, four of the top-10 in the AP Poll are West Coast squads (#4 Gonzaga, #5 UCLA, #7 USC, #9 Arizona) and there’s plenty of other quality programs in the WCC, including BYU, San Francisco, Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara. A team on the West Coast hasn’t won a NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship this century; the last one was in 1997 with Arizona (which technically isn’t on the “coast”, but the point remains). Could the 25-year drought get broken this season?
Right now, I don’t think you can consider any of the aforementioned teams to be favorites to win the title (I give that honor to Duke still, as of now), but I do think that batch of programs are certainly in the mix. Gonzaga isn’t as talented as last season, but Drew Timme remains one of the best players in college basketball. Chet Holmgren is elite defensively as well, but his offense remains a work in progress. For Gonzaga to fully unlock their potential, they’ll need guard Andrew Nembhard to increase his production, as he hasn’t taken the step forwards that many people (including myself) anticipated. Gonzaga should continue to improve throughout the year as their newer players (Julian Strawther and Nolan Hickman) get more acclimated, as well. Strawther in particular has been awesome this season, averaging 13.2 PPG and knocking down 37.9% of his 3-PT attempts after a freshman campaign where he didn’t see much of the court.
UCLA is, in my opinion, the west coast team with the highest ceiling this year. Although the Bruins got beat down by Gonzaga earlier this year, I think they are slightly more talented. Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a terrific 1-2 punch, but a deep supporting cast that features one of the best AST/TO guards in Tyger Campbell, sharpshooter Jules Bernard, role players in David Singleton and Jaylen Clark, and defensive anchor Myles Johnson, makes it easy to be bullish on the Bruins. That’s before we mention Cody Riley’s potential return and 5-star freshman Peyton Watson, whose continued development could unlock an entirely new ceiling for the Bruins. UCLA hasn’t played since December 11th due to COVID and they’re not slated to face a ranked opponent until February 3rd when they travel to Tucson. UCLA may very well be a slight unknown without an extensive resume entering March, but with the veteran experience and talent on this team, I’m not sure it will matter much beyond rhythm.
The USC Trojans sent off Evan Mobley to the NBA Draft last year, where he was drafted 3rd overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers and is the current frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. Despite that, the Trojans are undefeated so far this season, in large part due to the growth of Evan Mobley’s brother, Isaiah. Isaiah has increased his scoring average by 67% and is nearly averaging a double-double; simply put, he’s one of the best frontcourt players in all of college basketball. The Trojans are a defensive-minded team, but they rank 25th in adjusted offense according to KenPom, which is quite impressive. They don’t have as much star power or recruiting stars to flash as other programs, but their depth of talent is impressive. Chevez Goodwin has taken a sizeable step forward this year, Boogie Ellis has big-time scoring potential in the backcourt, and Drew Peterson is back for another year. The knock-on USC is their schedule has been fairly soft so far; the only team they’ve faced that’ll likely be in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large was San Diego State, but that win was convincing. Like UCLA, we won’t know more about the Trojans until early February when they travel to Tucson, but as of now, they’ve been very impressive to begin the year.
Lastly, the Arizona Wildcats have tipped off the Tommy Lloyd era in very impressive fashion. Benedict Mathurin has been an absolute stud (18.3 PPG) and the Wildcats have two talented players in the frontcourt as well with Azuolas Tubelis and Christian Koloko. Sean Miller’s time in Tucson did not end on a high note, but Lloyd and company have generated a ton of buzz that feels right for Arizona. The Wildcats have unfortunately had games against UCLA and USC postponed, but they have boasted some impressive non-conference wins against Michigan (who was ranked at the time) and on the road against Illinois. The Wildcats lone loss? A 4-point defeat in Knoxville against a good Tennessee team. Arizona has quietly been amongst the most fun teams in college basketball so far; they play at a breakneck pace (4th in adjusted tempo), and rank inside the top-15 in both adjusted offense and defense according to KenPom. They face UCLA and USC back-to-back in early February, but as of now, things are looking very good for the Wildcats.
At the Buzzer
What is Up with Michigan and North Carolina?
- The Michigan Wolverines and North Carolina Tar Heels both entered the year with high expectations, yet through the nonconference period, both programs are among the biggest disappointments in the sport. KenPom is still high on the Wolverines (21st) despite their 7-5 record. Michigan’s loss to Seton Hall isn’t a “bad” one, but losing to Arizona, North Carolina, Minnesota, and Central Florida by a combined 63 points is not inspiring anyone. The Wolverines simply have not gotten enough production from their standout freshmen (Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate) to meet expectations. When John Beilein was the coach, the Wolverines were notoriously slow starters before rounding into form late in the season. I’m not sure if that can happen with this squad in Ann Arbor, but with all of the youth on this roster, it’s certainly plausible. For starters, Michigan will need to be more careful with the ball; the Wolverines are 180th in turnovers per possession and have both Houstan and Diabate averaging more TOs than assists.
- As for North Carolina, it’s certainly been a bit of a hot mess in Chapel Hill for Hubert Davis’ inaugural season. The Tar Heels are talented and unlike Michigan, have plenty of experience. All of their core rotation players have at least one season of college hoops under their belt. UNC’s issues seem to stem from inconsistency: North Carolina has lost to Purdue, Tennessee, and Kentucky this year, three teams that there is no shame in losing to. However, it is the manner in which they lost which is so concerning. UNC lost those three games by a combined 55 points and the loss to Kentucky was particularly demoralizing, as they were largely non-competitive. The Tar Heels seemed to have steadied the ship a bit since, rattling off blowout victories over Appalachian State and Boston College, but their performances against top competition leave a lot to be desired. North Carolina’s top-end talent is, in my opinion, below what they have had in the past. Armando Bacot is productive inside, but his game is limited to inside 6/10 feet. Caleb Love is probably UNC’s most talented player, but he remains hot and cold offensively. The X-factor here for the Tar Heels is forward Dawson Garcia, who’s shown an increased ability to space the floor for UNC. I still think Carolina will make the NCAA Tournament and could be dangerous, but their early season start has not been particularly inspiring.
Is Villanova Vulnerable This Year?
- The Villanova Wildcats are a premier program in the sport and quite possibly the most successful program of the past decade with their two titles. Jay Wright’s team entered this season with high expectations as they returned multiple key players from last year’s Sweet 16 team that was without Collin Gillespie. Not having Jeremiah Robinson-Earl was a hit, but all in all, Villanova certainly had Final Four aspirations on their mind this year. Yet, it’s been a slower start for the Wildcats than expected this season, although I think a lot of it is overblown. Jay Wright set up a challenging schedule for his team and at times, it felt like it got the best of them (namely the road visit to Baylor on the tail end of a road trip and during finals week). Villanova had an ugly 20-point road loss to Creighton but has rebounded nicely since, with two wins over Xavier and Seton Hall. The question now is, are the Wildcats actually vulnerable this year? So far, it would appear they are, although KenPom has ranked their schedule the 7th toughest in college basketball so far. The Big East is really talented this year and Providence, in particular, has gotten off to a hot start. I think the Wildcats have to still be considered the favorite, but their early season play has certainly opened the door for others in the Big East.
Three Prospects to Know
Big: Walker Kessler (SO-Auburn Tigers)
- The aforementioned Walker Kessler was a monster against LSU last week, blocking 11 shots to secure a triple double. Kessler didn’t see the court a ton for the North Carolina Tar Heels a year ago, but by the end of the season, he was flashing an impressive skillset. Kessler isn’t the prototypical modern big–his offensive game is mainly limited to dump-offs, lobs, and offensive rebounds and he’s not the most switchable defender, but he is a monster around the basket. Kessler’s ridiculous showing against LSU raised his season block average to north of 4 per game. It’s easy to see Kessler carving out a role in the NBA as a rim-to-rim guy, even if he may struggle in space.
Guard: Jahvon Quinerly (JR-Alabama Crimson Tide)
- Dating back to last season, I started to really love Jahvon Quinerly’s game. In my opinion, Quinerly should be getting some first-round buzz from the NBA. He’s a lightning quick guard who can effortlessly slice through the defense or get to the rim. At his best, he can take over games on the offensive end through his slashing ability or passing. However, there are some noticeable knocks on him. Quinerly isn’t a great perimeter shooter (just 27.0% this year) and his defense needs work as well. Against NBA competition, he likely won’t have consistent speed advantages like he does in college, needing some more development. Overall, Quinerly is the key to Alabama fulfilling their ceiling this year. He was a bit of a late bloomer last season and I anticipate a big run during conference play.
Forward: Jalen Slawson (SR-Furman Paladins)
- Jalen Slawson is an under-the-radar name, but after checking in on a Furman game last week, he’s certainly an impressive player. Slawson is an above-the-rim, powerful athlete who’s an elite defender as well. He certainly has a role in the NBA as a versatile wing, but his offense could be the key in determining his future. Slawson has nearly doubled his PPG mark from a year ago (8.7 to 16.2) even with modest dips in efficiency. The two main areas of improvement from Slawson relate to his shooting (30.8% from deep this year) and his decision-making (3.5 TOPG, including an 8-turnover game against Mississippi State). However, in the NBA, he’s likely going to be asked to be a primary facilitator at a lower clip. I think Slawson has the skillset to carve out an NBA spot and he’ll be a guy to monitor as the year goes along.
Games to Watch This Week (M-F)
- Wisconsin at Purdue (1/3, 7:00 PM ET, BTN)
- Oklahoma at Baylor (1/4, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
- Kentucky at LSU (1/4, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN)
- Kansas at Oklahoma State (1/4, 9:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
- Alabama at Florida (1/5, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
- Creighton at Villanova (1/5, 8:30 PM ET, FS1)
- San Francisco at Gonzaga (1/6, 9:00 PM ET, TBD)
The Chirp 