A new NBA season leads to the blossoming of one primary emotion: hope. That hope remains true for the Dallas Mavericks, as some fresh faces seem to have added a new life inside the training facilities in Dallas. After Rick Carlisle’s rather unceremonious exit this summer, only to be replaced by Jason Kidd, who has been mired in off-court issues at nearly every stop of his career, the off-season got bleak at times. The Mavericks seemingly failed to make the necessary upgrades that it would take to elevate them to a legitimate title threat. Yet, despite this, there is a high level of optimism entering the year. The team seems extremely connected, it seems like Jason Kidd’s emphasis on “having fun” is being shown in action, not just words, and the team is fully healthy entering the year. Compared to the rest of the Western Conference, I’d argue the Mavericks are in fairly good shape. This is a roster built to win in the regular season and truthfully, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to believe the Mavericks could get a top-3 seed in the West.
In trying to concisely walk through the Mavericks’ season outlook, I decided to run a spin-off on a “five big things” article, by breaking down five of the biggest storylines to watch for the Mavericks this year. It should be a fun one in Dallas with progress and I am very much looking forward to it.
1. How Does Kristaps Porzingis Bounce Back?
The biggest storyline for Dallas absolutely revolves around Kristaps Porzingis and what level of play they get out of him this year. Last year was not a particularly kind one for The Unicorn; his defense was poor for much of the season, and his offense, while strong in the regular season, was picked apart come postseason time. Porzingis’ future with the Mavericks was certainly murky at the beginning of the summer, but it certainly feels like a coaching change plus summer reset has put Porzingis in the best mental/physical space he’s been in since coming to Dallas.
Although I still have doubts regarding Porzingis’ ability to be the #2 guy on a championship team, I am quite optimistic for a fantastic Porzingis season. KP clearly took used the criticism as fuel for his training and push this summer, his first healthy one for his entire career. This false notion has percolated that Rick Carlisle forced Porzingis into being a standstill, corner 3-PT shooter in the postseason, although it was more so due to the deficiencies in Porzingis’ game. It’ll be interesting to see how Jason Kidd deploys Porzingis this season. During his tenure in Dallas, it’s evident Porzingis is most lethal around the perimeter as a pick-and-pop threat, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mavericks force feed him post touches. I’d love to see the Mavericks utilize Porzingis on the move more often; he’s quietly a terrific cutter and part of the reason why he’s so lethal in the corner is his ability to operate from the extended dunker spot as a legit force with some steam going towards the rim. Some preseason action gave us a glimpse that there might be some sets with KP headed towards the rim, something that seems to be much more effective in getting him more looks rather than posting him up.
However, while Porzingis’ offensive usage garnered a lot of national media attention, the focus for me will be on KP’s defensive impact and specifically, his lateral movement. The Bubble/2019-20 season feels like eons ago, but Porzingis was a dominant defensive force then. His meniscus injury in Orlando seemed to sap all his lateral movement last year, but with a full off-season, I’m optimistic he’ll be in much better physical shape this season. Remember, Jaren Jackson Jr. suffered an identical meniscus tear and didn’t return until May, four months after Porzingis (who suffered his injury weeks after Jackson). With the abbreviated off-season last year, combined with hastened rehab, I feel like Porzingis was constantly playing catchup regarding his health last year. The Mavericks, as a whole, seem a lot better conditioned to manage the NBA workload entering this season, than last.
Porzingis’ offense is strong enough to not worry too much about his impact on that end of the court, unless the new coaching staff insists on giving him 5-10 post touches a game. If he can rediscover his 2019-20 defensive form, where he was a terrific interior presence and switched on the perimeter, then the Mavericks are really on to something this year. I saw some flashes from KP, particularly in Game 5 against the Clippers, of that type of defensive impact. Getting the knee healthy and replicating the performance will be a key determinant in how high Dallas’ ceiling is.
2. Who Emerges as Dallas’ Key Reserve?
It’s fairly easy to look at Dallas’ roster and identify a clear pecking order in terms of offensive output:
- 1. Luka Doncic
- 2. Kristaps Porzingis
- 3. Tim Hardaway Jr.
The question now becomes, what happens after that? The Mavericks were destroyed by the Clippers in non-Luka minutes last year. While the postseason is a different beast, it is evident the Mavericks need much more individual shot creation than what they showed last year. Truthfully, I’m not sure their off-season moves accomplished that; in fact, I think there’s a decent argument to be made that the swap of Josh Richardson for Reggie Bullock actually diminished their ability to do so. Yet, someone will inevitably step up: the question remains, who?
The logical option seems to be Jalen Brunson, who was terrific last season and is likely eyeing a sizeable contract this upcoming summer when he hits free agency. Last year, Brunson ran 257 pick-and-rolls according to Second Spectrum and he finished in the 92nd percentile on those sets, an elite mark. Maintaining that production into the postseason will be a topic of conversation come May, but right now, having Brunson replicate his 2020-21 season would be massive for this team. It’ll be interesting to see if Jason Kidd gives Brunson the level of usage he experienced under Carlisle, but based on Brunson’s game, I’d argue he’s earned it.
Another name to keep an eye on regarding shot creation is Trey Burke. While Burke is coming off a rough season and his vaccination stance has certainly ruffled a few feathers, he does have microwave-scoring ability. I doubt Burke gets rotation minutes early on, but he’s the type of player who can erupt for a handful of games during the year to swing momentum. Burke’s NBA career has been a rollercoaster, but his play in The Bubble was nothing short of tremendous. It’s wishful thinking asking for him to replicate that, but if he can match, say, 80% of that play? That’s an impactful rotation piece for the Mavericks who adds a scoring dimension they are thin on. Remember, Burke had some moments for Dallas last year, including strong defense against Steph Curry and a 30+ point game against the Orlando Magic early on.
Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown are the two newcomers who could emerge here, although Bullock’s high dependency on others to create efficient looks for him makes me feel a bit more pessimistic regarding his shot creation outlook. Bullock, however, serves to be a major beneficiary of Doncic/Brunson’s terrific passing skills and their ability to effortlessly compose a pick-and-roll set. Brown, on the other hand, does have some off-the-dribble chops, although it’s much more in a tertiary set. Still, as someone who can put the ball on the deck and make something happen, it’s a nice addition in Dallas.
3. Does Jason Kidd Replicate the Los Angeles Lakers’ “Double Big” Strategy?
I never put much stock into preseason play, so forgive for me not utilizing lineup data there for my comments here. One thing I’m still a bit uncertain on entering the year is how Jason Kidd will operate. Doncic is so talented offensively that I doubt their system undergoes an overhaul, but with defense/lineups, I expect changes. Kidd seems to have outgrown his over-the-top trapping style that he deployed in Milwaukee, but I do wonder how much of Frank Vogel’s philosophies he carries over. In Los Angeles, Vogel ran two big lineups fairly often and interestingly enough, deployed a big (Anthony Davis) into a more traditional power forward position. The Mavericks have already announced Dwight Powell as the starting five, a move I am a big fan of considering Powell’s complementary style to Porzingis’.
However, it will be interesting to see if Kidd would run lineups of, say, Willie Cauley-Stein and Porzingis simultaneously. If Kidd really does view Porzingis as a four, then theory would have it that Moses Brown, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Boban Marjanovic could all see minutes alongside KP. The thought makes me shudder a bit, but it is something I expect to see Kidd experiment with. Whether it actually works is another question.
It’ll also be interesting to monitor the minutes distribution of Dallas’ frontcourt. The Mavericks are fairly deep with rotation-caliber guys, but only Porzingis and perhaps Maxi Kleber should be getting 24+. Like most coaches, I’m guessing Kidd’s rotation will narrow as the year progresses, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of mixing and matching these guys early on. I’d love for Moses Brown to emerge as a consistent rotation option, and his constant work with Tyson Chandler is certainly encouraging/awesome to see, but it’ll likely be a few weeks into the season before we get some clarity here.
4. Will the Mavericks Actually Become More Adverse to the 3-PT Shot?
Jason Kidd hinted at this during the preseason and there are signs that point to the Dallas Mavericks taking significantly fewer threes this season. Expecting a decline in their 3-PT volume should be expected, considering Dallas was near the top of the league under Rick Carlisle. Kidd’s style, one that seems to be more interior-focused, was always likely to yield less threes organically. However, for him to explicitly allude to diminishing their attempts, that is concerning.
A common misconception regarding analytics is that there is some “rule” that mid-range shots are always less efficient than three pointers. That is not the case, but in general/overall, 3-PT shots are more efficient than mid-ranges. Dallas’ roster is constructed to win via the jumper; Luka Doncic is a magician at setting guys up on a silver platter from deep, while Tim Hardaway Jr., Reggie Bullock, and Kristaps Porzingis are fantastic catch-and-shoot guys. This is before we mention how two key role players: Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber, are almost exclusively catch-and-shoot guys offensively. Transitioning sharply away from the 3-PT shot feels like it’ll hurt the offense, but I also wonder how much substance there is within this belief.
While Kidd may actively say the team will take fewer attempts, my hunch remains that it won’t be a significant drop-off. Dallas may drop from top-5 in 3-PT rate to closer to league average, but these won’t be traded in for long mid-ranges or heavy post-ups. I think there’ll be a greater emphasis on movement to the basket and points in the paint. Dallas’ shot profile has been quite analytically-friendly in recent years and while it’ll likely tilt away from the 3-PT reliance a bit, going too far away from it into 3-PT aversion territory would be a mistake.
5. Will Talk of Defense Lead to Results?
The last key storyline? Defense. The Mavericks had, at the time, the best offense in the history of the NBA two years ago, but their defense wasn’t good enough to compete for a championship. The Mavericks aimed to remedy that last year by trading Seth Curry for Josh Richardson and signing reinforcements which included James Johnson and Wesley Iwundu. None of those moves worked out, landing Dallas back to the drawing board this summer.
Coach Kidd has repeatedly hammered home defense in his media appearances and in preseason, it clearly was a high level of focus for the players as well. It remains to be seen how good Dallas can be defensively while starting Tim Hardaway Jr., Luka Doncic, and Kristaps Porzingis, although a healthy Porzingis completely changes things. Reggie Bullock’s defensive reputation slightly outpaces his actual play, but he’s likely the Mavericks 2nd or 3rd best perimeter defender after Dorian Finney-Smith and maybe after Maxi Kleber. Having Josh Green develop into a consistent rotation presence would be huge, considering Green is their best defensive playmaker due to his high energy, active hands, and strong instincts.
I’m curious to see how much improvement is put in on the defensive end, as the Mavericks’ offense is good enough to win every night. If Dallas could leap to being fringe top-10 defensively, I’d take a decent bet on them being a Conference Finals team. Out of the past three seasons of Kristaps Porzingis, I’d argue this is probably the most well-balanced, cohesive team they have built in that span. Seeing if it contributes to results on the court could lead to strong validation for Nico Harrison and company. Expect to see a more aggressive defensive scheme for Dallas that involves trapping, blitzing screens, and hopefully fewer drop coverage sets. The Mavericks were notoriously conservative under Rick Carlisle in playing for turnovers, which are major point swings in the game. Garnering some extra turnovers alone should, in theory, elevate Dallas’ defense as a whole.
The Chirp 