There’s nothing quite like the start of the NBA off-season. Intel flies around the league, rumors are breathed to life on Twitter, and the incessant refreshing of Adrian Wojnarowski’s feed becomes socially acceptable behavior. The NBA Draft is tonight and Woj has already dropped some bombs: the Detroit Pistons seem locked on Cade Cunningham at #1 overall, while the Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers are on Jalen Green and Evan Mobley, respectively. From all the chatter around the league as of late, I am expecting plenty of action throughout the draft and in the coming days leading to the commencement of free agency on August 2nd.
Today, we’ll dive into some of the main topics swirling around the rumor mill. As always, there will be somewhat of a focus on the Dallas Mavericks, but some other nuggets will be included as well.
Kyle Lowry is the Hottest FA Name… But Why?
Without a doubt, over the past week, it feels like Kyle Lowry has been the impending free agent generating the most buzz. This summer’s crop of players was weakened due to the flurry of contract extensions signed (namely, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday). That phenomenon could help explain some of the increased Lowry buzz, but still, a 35-year old point guard who has not averaged 20+ PPG since the 2016-17 season being the hottest free agent target seems mildly indefensible. Kyle Lowry remains a very good NBA player; he can efficiently run an offense, he’s an above average 3-PT shooter (who is in the “very good” tier), he’s a solid defender, and has a championship pedigree to boot. But, doesn’t the excessive interest in Lowry rub off a copycat mindset, for teams aiming to replicate the meteoric rise the Phoenix Suns experienced by adding a veteran point guard to their squad?
The biggest fallacy I see teams fall for across all major sports is believing that because “concept A” works for one organization, it will work for theirs. This bias at work does not account for all the socially complex factors at work in professional sports, like organizational culture, surrounding talent, player dynamics, and more. People have been befuddled for how Bill Belichick could be so successful in New England, yet all of his assistants (for the most part) have failed elsewhere. Well, it’s because each organization has a unique set of dynamics, both on and off the field, that make it incredibly tough to create mirror replicas of each other. Teams in all leagues fall for this all the time, and I worry that many are headed down a beaten path by heavily pursuing Kyle Lowry.
Now, I want to be clear here: Kyle Lowry would be a great addition for all of the teams that have been heavily connected to him, namely the New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers, and Philadelphia 76ers. My issue with the pursuit of Lowry is not with Lowry himself, but rather, with the rationale of pursuing him. I’ve listed the reasons below:
- Chris Paul is a substantially better player than Kyle Lowry. He’s a better shooter, passer, defender (based on BBall-Index’s DLEBRON metric), and overall player than Lowry and frankly, he’s a good tier or two above Lowry. Paul’s shot creation ability and elite skill at navigating pick-and-roll makes him a more valuable postseason contributor than Lowry, who has never shown the elite ability to consistently dominate out of P&R.
- The Phoenix Suns had a unique dynamic that allowed for the Paul partnership to flourish. They had a perfect coach to connect with the youngsters and bond with Paul (who remember, played for Monty Williams in New Orleans). They had a bonafide star in Devin Booker who could thrive on or off ball. They had a glut of talented youngsters who were due for a breakout season, like Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and Deandre Ayton. Plus, they had other, two-way role players step up and, at times, play well above their pay grade, like Dario Saric, Jae Crowder and, of course, Cameron Payne. Phoenix’s 8-0 Bubble stretch gave the front office confidence to make an addition like Chris Paul.
- As hot of a take as this might be, Phoenix’s end result was a bit lucky. The Suns were primarily spared of injuries and COVID-related absences during the season. Yes, they were an elite team overall, but also benefitted from better uncontrollable luck than other teams. Additionally, if Anthony Davis remained healthy in the first round of the playoffs, does Phoenix defeat the Lakers? A lot of circumstantial help aided Phoenix’s run, and while that should not diminish their accomplishments, it adds credence to this “social complexity” we talk about.
There are two primary teams who are pursuing Kyle Lowry that are inevitably hoping for a Chris Paul-like impact: the New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks. New Orleans has two cornerstone building blocks in Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, but have struggled to properly build a cohesive roster around those two. All reports indicate they’ll heavily pursue Kyle Lowry, who I think makes a ton of sense in New Orleans. The Pelicans already have two standout, individual half court shot creators in Ingram and Williamson that would allow Lowry to slide into a perfect role for himself; as a tertiary half court guy, who, when needed, can be the 2nd option. Lowry’s ability to orchestrate offense for others should set Ingram and Williamson up for cleaner looks as well, which should certainly add in New Orleans’ effectiveness. If New Orleans is hoping for a massive jump like Phoenix, their expectations are wrong, but Lowry is certainly a strong fit.
For the Dallas Mavericks, I see a different vantage point. On the one hand, Lowry would be the team’s biggest free agent signing of all-time and would certainly improve the team. But, Dallas needs a legitimate secondary shot creator alongside Luka Doncic and surveying the free agent board, there are better options. I don’t have any intel to support this, but part of me does feel like the Mavericks have inched Kyle Lowry up their board to be a priority after watching what Chris Paul did for the young Phoenix Suns. But, for the reasons listed above and the long track record we have, this feels like poor rationale. Sure, it could work out (and don’t get me wrong, I’d be happy with Lowry in Dallas), but the reasoning or process behind team building is the more consistent measure of strategy, not the results. DeMar DeRozan is the premier shot creator available, offers superior versatility, and I’d argue is probably a comparable, if not better, passer than Lowry. DeRozan might be perceived as a “clunkier” fit and for an analytics-driven squad like the Mavericks, I wouldn’t be surprised if they had minimal interest in a player whose advanced stats and on/off splits have always been below average. However, I think better options exist for the Mavericks than Kyle Lowry and likely, these better options come with less competition. Kyle Lowry fits in Dallas, but allowing Chris Paul and Phoenix’s success to influence a team’s perception on Lowry would be pursuing more failed judgment that has plagued other franchises in all sports for years.
Some Surprising Draft Day Deals We Could See
There has been a ton of buzz on the trade block in advance of the draft and it seems like the deal with the most traction currently is Buddy Hield to the Los Angeles Lakers. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer reported there is momentum regarding a Hield to the Lakers deal for Montrezl Harrell, the 23rd pick, and either Kyle Kuzma or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a package that seems pretty good for the Lakers, in my opinion. Marc Stein, however, added in a tidbit earlier today that the San Antonio Spurs could be interested in Kyle Kuzma in a potential DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade.
While the Hield/Lakers deal seems to have the wheels turning, there have been other names being tossed around. It feels nearly certain that Ben Simmons will not be on the 76ers for the 2021-22 season, but with four years remaining on his contract, there is no immediate pressure to get a deal done during the draft. Collin Sexton has been another name on the rumor mill, along with fellow teammates Kevin Love, Cedi Osman, and Larry Nance Jr., to name a few. Below, I’ve listed out some surprise deals we could potentially see on draft night that I think make sense for all involved parties:
Collin Sexton Three-Team Deal
New York Knicks: ESPN’s Bobby Marks has been on record saying he’d be surprised if the Knicks used both of their first round picks on players in the draft. New York seems to be active in wanting to move up, or to trade either or both selections for guys ready to impact the roster immediately. Collin Sexton is a really logical fit; he’s a great complementary scorer for Julius Randle and is an upgraded version of Derrick Rose, who was a huge addition for the Knicks last season. The price to acquire Sexton is not terribly steep here; they trade both first-round selections and Kevin Knox, who’s fallen out of favor with Tom Thibodeau. It does hurt their draft capital, but landing Sexton is more than worth it.
Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cleveland Cavaliers seem intent on, at minimum, surveying the landscape for a Sexton trade. Personally, I think this is a great package for them. Derrick White has shown a ton of promise during his time in the league, but has battled through injuries. When healthy, he’s a well-rounded, two-way guard who makes for an intriguing pairing with Darius Garland down the road. White is an underrated player in my opinion who makes for a good centerpiece in a return; he’s affordable, under team control for four years, and has no red flags. Getting another first round pick is a major lure for Koby Altman here as well, even if it’s in the latter half of Round 1. Kevin Knox is a worthy flyer; he’d likely earn some rotation minutes and if his shot falls, can be a nice player to have on the wing.
San Antonio Spurs: At first glance, it may seem confusing as to why San Antonio does this trade. After all, Derrick White is good enough to be the centerpiece for their own trade, not for somebody else’s. However, there have been rumors San Antonio could look at moving Dejounte Murray or White, and with Lonnie Walker IV and Devin Vassell on the roster, there’s a glut of guards. By dealing White, the Spurs add another top-20 pick, a talented big in Larry Nance Jr., who gives San Antonio much-needed athleticism and versatility in the frontcourt, and some extra draft ammo in the second round. Solely for White, that’s a pretty solid return. This also gives the Spurs enough assets to, in my opinion, potentially trade up if Jonathan Kuminga were to slide. A starting five of Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker, Keldon Johnson, Jonathan Kuminga, and Jakob Poeltl, with notable cap space to spend this summer, is an intriguing rebuild.
The Warriors Make a Splash
Golden State Warriors: Bob Myers and company have a thin line to try and toe this summer. Their title window is clearly open, but it is closing. Trying to balance building for the future while remaining competitive for a championship is always a precious dance, but it’s even tougher for Golden State considering their environment. Their second best player, Klay Thompson, hasn’t played in two years and will be returning from one of the most devastating injuries in sports. Their luxury tax bill is astronomical. And, they have two lottery picks that could either be powerful trade chips or two, young rotation pieces, but probably off from being immediate impact guys. This trade tries to accommodate everything. The Warriors cash in on some of their young assets, dealing Wiseman and #7 to Toronto for Pascal Siakam, while using Andrew Wiggins, who was quite productive for the Warriors last season, as matching salary. Siakam is a legitimate third guy alongside Steph Curry and Thompson and he’s young enough for the Warriors to keep an eye on the future by adding him. Golden State also retains one of their lottery selections, making this a good move.
Toronto Raptors: The Toronto Raptors are at a crossroads with Kyle Lowry’s impending free agency. Their roster is likely good enough, even without Lowry, to battle for the play-in tournament in the Eastern Conference, especially if they draft Jalen Suggs. But, they could also opt to blow it up by trading Pascal Siakam and embrace a rebuild, albeit a small one since the assets in a Siakam trade, combined with the 4th pick (likely Jalen Suggs) and other roster guy will allow them to compete quickly. This is a fantastic deal for Toronto for Siakam. Andrew Wiggins is Canadian and the opportunity to play in his home country should be a really cool storyline. People’s opinion on James Wiseman certainly varies, but he’s intriguing due to his athleticism, reach, and solid play last year despite growing pains. Landing two picks in the top-7 is the real draw for Toronto here, as they legitimately could come away with Jonathan Kuminga and Suggs, giving them terrific upside for the future.
The Hornets/Pacers Pull off a Big Deal
Charlotte Hornets: The Charlotte Hornets are set in the backcourt, but they desperately need some frontcourt help. While they’ll have free agent money to throw at Richaun Holmes, getting the opportunity to land Myles Turner, who is seemingly available from Indiana, is too good of an opportunity to pass up. The Hornets move down two spots in the draft, deal a very good wing in Gordon Hayward and a young big with promise in P.J. Washington, but get a foundational center along with a microwave-scoring wing in T.J. Warren. This deal also gives Charlotte some extra cap flexibility a year sooner, which is important to note since that’ll be LaMelo Ball’s last summer on his rookie contract.
Indiana Pacers: Giving up Myles Turner to take in Gordon Hayward seems odd, but for the Indiana Pacers, there’s a lot of merit to this trade. The Turner/Sabonis frontcourt has its limitations and it feels like with Rick Carlisle entering, things will be shaken up. Gordon Hayward is a Carlisle-type of player who could work wonders for Indiana; he can shoot, move the ball, cut, and thrive in transition. Many have underrated Hayward’s game due to his contracts, but he’s one of the better players in the league and in my opinion, comparable overall, if not better, than Myles Turner. The Pacers also move up in this draft, which is important to note since both Charlotte and San Antonio could be looking at bigs like Alperen Sengun, Kai Jones, or Usman Garuba there. By trading Turner, Indiana adds more perimeter versatility in Hayward and Washington, plus also gets their pick of those three bigs (in all likelihood) if they so choose.
Different Type of Kings Trade
Sacramento Kings: The Sacramento Kings have been rumored to be shopping Marvin Bagley III and in this deal, they get it done. Moving back three spots to swap Bagley for Lonnie Walker IV seems like a smart move, especially when coupling that by acquiring the 15th pick from the Washington Wizards. The Kings add more backcourt depth here and a shooting big in Davis Bertans, who could thrive in Sacramento’s up tempo style of play. Two top-15 picks, a young guard with promise, and a shooting big, albeit on a big contract? Good haul for Sacramento.
Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal seems to be staying put in Washington, but I doubt Tommy Shepherd gets conservative on Thursday night. The Wizards need to improve; they cannot expect to retain Beal next summer with another first-round exit. That likely means dangling the 15th pick and here, it lands them Harrison Barnes, a terrific two-way wing who has blossomed into a legitimate third option in Sacramento. Washington also gets out from Bertans’ contract here, making it worth sacrificing the pick. A Russell Westbrook, Beal, Barnes, Rui Hachimura, and Daniel Gafford starting five is really intriguing.
San Antonio Spurs: The San Antonio Spurs are an active team in our blog! While San Antonio is never active on the trade market in real life, this feels like a time where their franchise should be aggressive. There are no clear superstars to build around and a glut of backcourt players who all have their own limitations. The Spurs adjust their needs here, filling the frontcourt spot with Bagley, who despite his struggles, still possesses untapped upside. Moving up three spots in the draft is certainly a kind boost.
A Ben Simmons Blockbuster (Let’s Get Crazy)
Philadelphia 76ers: Daryl Morey has reportedly been asking for the moon and then some in trade talks for Ben Simmons, but in reality, I don’t think they’ll get the massive haul they seek. In my opinion, this is a terrific package for Philadelphia: they move off Simmons and have to depart from defensive star Matisse Thybulle, plus a future first, but land Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, one of the premier young guards in basketball. Shai would be a tremendous fit alongside Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris and finally would give the 76ers a legitimate second, half court offensive option. OG Anunoby is a terrific 3-and-D player in his own right who could slide in snugly alongside Harris and Seth Curry, while Rodney Hood is a bit of a wild card. At worse, Hood just eats salary (he doesn’t effect Philadelphia’s cap at all since they’d be over regardless of taking his contract), but at best, he’s their sixth man. This would be a home run for Philadelphia.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder have so many assets it feels like they should be done with asset collection mode, but with the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rumors, this feels like an appropriate blockbuster for them. Pascal Siakam does not have the upside Gilgeous-Alexander possesses, but he’s still a very good player with youth who could be a nice building block for the Thunder. However, the real draw to this trade is the 4th overall pick the Thunder land. While Siakam is comparable to Gilgeous-Alexander, there is a noticeable gap in talent after the top four guys in the class. Guaranteeing one of them, especially for a team operating on Oklahoma City’s timeline, is essential here. Oh, and Matisse Thybulle is a stud who, alongside Luguentz Dort, would put opposing players in the torture chamber every night.
Toronto Raptors: This is a really interesting trade from Toronto’s perspective, in my opinion. First, they do drop two spots in the draft, from #4 to #6, which is a noticeable dip in talent. However, is it worth it? I’d argue yes: they land an extra first for their troubles plus get Ben Simmons, arguably the best defender in basketball who needs a change of scenery. Simmons and Fred VanVleet is a really strong duo to enter into a transition phase with. The Raptors also move on from OG Anunoby here, but this is an interesting draw: would the additional $20 million in cap space Toronto creates offset their concerns? Toronto could make an aggressive play to bring Lowry back and add Richaun Holmes with that money, making them into a legitimate title contender once again. It’s a really interesting proposal all-around. Yes, it’s incredibly unlikely, but if you’re not throwing out crazy trades this time of the year, you’re not having fun.
How Will Recency Bias/Variance Affect Free Agency?
The NBA Playoffs are such an interesting time for strategists, primarily because it puts players under a large microscope. Postseason play is always fresh in people’s minds in free agency because of recency bias, but another statistical phenomenon is also at play here: variance. Best-of-seven series are prone to having outliers swing control. For example, a team can be red hot in one series and win, only to go ice cold the next and lose. Usually, seven games (at max) or four (at minimum) is an inadequate sample size to draw meaningful conclusions about your roster, especially when ignoring the 70+ game sample size for the regular season. Yes, playoff basketball is a different beast, but to what degree?
I bring all these points up because there are quite a few teams that I think may be plagued by these biases/variance that happens in the postseason, namely the Utah Jazz. It’s been rumored that Utah is trying to clear salary and could look to attach the 30th pick to do so. Names like Derrick Favors, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, and Joe Ingles have all been loosely mentioned as available by different reporters, although Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report seems to have been on this story the most. The Jazz probably want to avoid the luxury tax while bringing back Mike Conley, which illustrates why they may find these moves necessary. But, the Jazz had the best net rating in the league last season. Mike Conley missed multiple games in their series against the Clippers and while Kawhi Leonard missed Games 5 & 6 too, this is where the variance comes in. In the closeout Game 6, the Los Angeles Clippers shot 51.3% from deep and Terance Mann dropped 39 points. All of a sudden, Rudy Gobert was a liability defensively. Now, there are certainly schematic adjustments Utah can and should make, plus they need more versatility on their roster. But, trading Bogdanovic, Ingles, or O’Neale? That seems like a massive overreaction to a postseason loss that you could chalk up to variance. Improvements need to be made, but that should start by adding some athleticism into the frontcourt with the MLE, such as a player like Jarred Vanderbilt from Minnesota.
This concept of recency bias also relates to other players who struggled in the postseason, not just Rudy Gobert. We’ve seen Ben Simmons’ value tank due to his inability to even shoot the ball. Does Philadelphia give in for a Simmons trade that likely brings back decent value, or do they hold out hope he can eventually be the centerpiece of a deal to land Bradley Beal or Damian Lillard, should they ask out? Kristaps Porzingis struggled with the Mavericks this postseason and his market seems cool. Can Dallas afford to run it back with Porzingis, knowing their timeline of upgrading the roster around Doncic is rapidly accelerating? Or, do they press the panic button and deal Porzingis for lesser value and buy too much into his playoff struggles?
These are key questions teams will have to answer this summer. Do teams buy in too much to one playoff series or one player’s struggles versus the weight of a 70+ game sample? I’m certainly keeping my eye on Utah, Ben Simmons, Kristaps Porzingis, and other teams this off-season. One club that could be the opposite? The Atlanta Hawks; it’ll be interesting to see how committed Travis Schlenk and ownership is to keeping that core together after an impressive turnaround.
How About Some Josh Richardson Trades?
From the Mavericks’ perspective, it feels like Josh Richardson is a lock to be traded. His decision on his $11M player option is not due until August 1, but he would help the Mavericks by making the decision ASAP, if he were to opt in. It’s also in Richardson’s best interest, as it gives the Mavericks time to potentially work with him on finding a desirable destination.
Regardless, I’ll detail some trades that could occur if Richardson were to opt in today, or were to wait it out:
Richardson to Boston
Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report mentioned that the Boston Celtics have been the team most connected to Josh Richardson, making them the first destination here. Boston adds Richardson, who would be a nice fit and give the Celtics much-needed wing depth, and Trey Burke, who can fill some of the void left behind by Kemba Walker. The Celtics don’t trade a ton to make this happen, either. Tristan Thompson is likely buried on the bench next season with the acquisition of Al Horford, so dumping him and their second round pick to Charlotte makes sense. The Hornets move up eleven spots, get a solid big, but this does likely take them out of the running for an impact free agent big. In my opinion, they’re the team most likely to say no. If Dallas wants to clear salary, this is a great trade for them. They add on a very late pick, but Romeo Langford is an interesting flyer on the wing; he’s a talented defender with some upside, he just needs to stay healthy. This deal gets Dallas to nearly $32M in cap space, which should be enough for whatever primary target they have in mind.
Richardson to Chicago
If Dallas didn’t want to slash salary (or opted for a trade in which they couldn’t), this deal makes some sense for both sides. The Chicago Bulls could use some wing depth, as they’re fairly thin behind Patrick Williams. Richardson would also give Chicago, in theory, some much-needed defense in the backcourt. For Dallas, they need more players capable of making plays consistently with the ball in their hands. Tomas Satoransky won’t set the world on fire, but he’s a good playmaker with positional size and some shooting chops. I like the idea of Satoransky in Dallas as a fallback option and Richardson’s salary matches perfectly. This deal certainly wouldn’t be my preference, but Satoransky’s fit does make sense.
Pacers, Kings, Mavericks Three-Team Deal
One of my favorite mock trades of the off-season has been Dwight Powell for Jeremy Lamb and this deal is essentially an extension of that. The Mavericks lose some roster talent with this move, but they’ll have enough cap space to offer Kyle Lowry $33 million during his first year without any additional cap gymnastics. Indiana gets Harrison Barnes, who’s an upgraded version of all of their current wings, Rick Carlisle’s favorite roll big in Dwight Powell, and take a flyer on Marvin Bagley III, who could thrive in a similar role that Brandan Wright had in Dallas. Sacramento adds another first round pick and takes on some expiring salary for their trouble. This is a deal that really appeals to me from Dallas’ perspective.
The Chirp 