We are officially in the final stretch of the 2020-21 NBA Season and it has been quite the ride. A few teams battled through COVID-19 related issues early on and while those have mainly cleared up, it appears that some teams have been unable to shake the injury/COVID bug all year long. For the Boston Celtics, it has hampered their success and turned this into a disappointing season. On the other hand, the Philadelphia 76ers weathered an early COVID-19 issue with Seth Curry and even though likely MVP finalist Joel Embiid missed multiple weeks, they still remain near the top of the Eastern Conference.
Surveying the NBA landscape right now, it’s hard to find a clear cut frontrunner. Many would point to the loaded Brooklyn Nets team, which contains arguably three of the best isolation scorers this century, plus an elite shooter in Joe Harris and two experienced, talented, yet declining bigs in LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin, as the clear favorite. However, Brooklyn has battled a multitude of injuries; it seems like their “Big Three” can never all be healthy at the same time, their depth on the wing/backcourt is a bit thin, and although their defense has vastly improved, they still sit 25th in defensive rating. By historical standards, that is not even close to being good enough to win a title. The Philadelphia 76ers are another serious threat out East as are the Milwaukee Bucks, but who’s that fourth team? As previously mentioned, the Celtics have been an incredible disappointment and seem destined for the play-in tournament, the Miami Heat have played significantly better since their COVID/injury plagued start, but their offense/spacing is poor, the Atlanta Hawks have been great since Nate McMillan took over, but are they really 4th best in the East? Based on net rating, Atlanta would be 4th in the East and 10th overall in the NBA, albeit I am a bit skeptical on just how good Atlanta is.
Out West, I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a more cluttered conference. While the Utah Jazz have sat #1 for much of the season, I’m not sure anybody is convinced they can make the NBA Finals. I’m a bit surprised by this belief to be honest; yes, the Jazz have been unable to advance in the postseason the past few seasons, but this Jazz team is different. They are loaded with elite shooters, they have the likely Sixth Man of the Year (Jordan Clarkson), ample playmaking, and the 3rd best defense in the NBA based on defensive rating, although that is a touch lucky considering opponents are unable to make wide open 3-PT attempts against them. The Phoenix Suns are currently 2nd in the West and like Utah, I don’t think many people (or the betting markets) are taking Phoenix seriously either. The Suns have the 2nd highest net rating in basketball, a standout backcourt in Chris Paul and Devin Booker, and ample depth on the wing. It’s easy to name the Clippers and the Lakers as the favorites considering their star power and while injuries have hit the Lakers very hard, I’m not sold on either being clearly better than Utah or Phoenix. Oh, and don’t sleep on the Denver Nuggets. Denver is 7-1 since acquiring Aaron Gordon and their offense is nearly unstoppable with him. Jamal Murray has quietly had a terrific year after a rough start, Nikola Jokic is likely the MVP, and Michael Porter Jr. is really blossoming into a winning player, not just an uber-talented one. Right now, I might say the Nuggets are the best team in the West.
Despite the league lacking a clear cut title favorite this year, there’s plenty of intrigue and things to watch as we progress with the final month. Here’s some of our key things to watch and to take note of:
The Dallas Mavericks are Surging
Luka Doncic entered the year as the odds-on favorite to win MVP. While Luka showed up a bit out of shape and Dallas sputtered to a 9-14 record out of the gate, the Mavericks have been terrific for the better part of two months. In fact, Dallas has been so good over that span I’d consider them a legitimate threat to potentially crack the Western Conference Finals this season. The roster has too many flaws for them to be seriously thought of as a title contender, but with their play as of late, it seems reasonable to think they could go on a run, or at minimum, push an elite team to a six or seven game series.
Since the Mavericks got embarrassed by the Warriors to drop to 9-14 they have gone on a torrid 20-9. Since February 14th, the Mavericks have lost just five games in which Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis both played in. Those losses? A three-point loss to Portland where a Luka Doncic three at the end of the game rimmed out, a 10-point loss to the Clippers (which Dallas avenged two days later when they won by 16), a six-point road loss to Portland (which Dallas avenged two days later when they won by 40), an inexplicable road loss to Houston in which Dallas had a horrific shooting night, and a loss to the Spurs that culminated in a DeMar DeRozan game-winner with 0.5 left. Another way to look at the run Dallas has been on with a healthy Doncic and Porzingis is this: every team they’ve played since February 14th with a healthy Luka and KP, Dallas has beaten, aside from Houston. That’s an absurd stretch of basketball.
Early on in the season, lots went wrong for Dallas. Porzingis was out while recovering from a torn meniscus, the Mavericks then started out 4-4 and looked to be getting a rhythm, only for COVID-19 to knock out Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jalen Brunson, and Maxi Kleber for multiple games. In the case of Richardson, Finney-Smith, and Kleber, three players who all caught COVID, none of them really regained their strength until that Golden State game, which arguably turned the season around. In that span, the Mavericks were working with a roster that was without four of their seven best players, playing by far the toughest schedule in basketball, and playing seemingly every day; in the month of January, the Mavericks played sixteen games and none with a full roster. Not to mention, Porzingis was still building up his lateral quickness and the Mavericks were in a brutal cold spell.
Since then, however, it’s been a complete 180. Porzingis, while still struggling a bit to defend guards in space, has been mostly terrific defensively. Luka got off to a slow start, but he’s having a masterful year, averaging 28.5 PPG, 8.7 APG, and 8.2 RPG with 48/37/73 shooting splits. Doncic’s 3-PT growth has been outstanding in particular; he started off the year ice cold (2/21), but he has been shooting north of 39% on 8+ attempts per game since. His play has been the primary catalyst behind Dallas’ surge, alongside another terrific season of Porzingis. However, the supporting cast has been tremendous as well. Jalen Brunson has established himself as the best backup point guard in the NBA and, in my opinion, a top-20 player at the position. Tim Hardaway Jr. is having another strong season too, averaging 16.5 PPG off the bench on career-best efficiency. In this post All-Star stretch, the Mavericks have the 5th best net rating (+7.1) and they rank 7th in offensive rating and 8th in defensive rating. No matter how you filter Dallas’ season since early February, they rank as a clear top-7 team by net rating. For the entire season, despite playing the toughest schedule in basketball and having key players miss about 15-20% of the season, their net rating is 9th in the NBA.
Now, while there should be plenty of optimism around Dallas, there is also some concern. Right now, Dallas is 1.5 GB of Portland for the 6th seed in the West; remember, the top six seeds avoid the dreaded play-in tournament. Whether it’s fair or not, there’s a chance right now that Dallas, who is 4.5 games ahead of Golden State in 10th, might miss the postseason. My hunch is that the Mavericks catch Portland; the Blazers’ defense is horrific (29th in the NBA) and they have a negative net rating for the season. Yes, Portland has also faced a multitude of injuries that are affecting their metrics, but Portland faces the third toughest schedule remaining while Dallas faces the second easiest schedule. Once the Mavericks get through this tougher stretch that features Philadelphia, Memphis, and a “series” against the Lakers next week, they only face three playoff teams the rest of the way. The rest of the way, the Mavericks get Detroit (x2), Cleveland (x2), Sacramento (x2), Minnesota, and Washington. It’s not inconceivable for Dallas to go 7-1 or 6-2 in those games, which will surely allow them to make up ground.
The second concern for Dallas is the viability of their roster to win in the postseason. Luka Doncic’s greatness has elevated a lot of the supporting cast, but there’s only so much he can do. Dallas seems better equipped for the playoffs this season with Josh Richardson on board, but he’s been incredibly inconsistent, especially defensively. The Mavericks have near-max cap space this offseason and are surely going to bring in some talented guys, but right now, this team falls short of the top six clubs. Can they pull an upset or two? In my opinion, absolutely. They are playing tremendous basketball and even on a night where they shot 31.0% from three and Tim Hardaway Jr. plus Jalen Brunson combined for 13 points on 4-20 shooting, it still took a contested jumper from DeRozan to beat them (and the Mavs were without starting forward Maxi Kleber). Yes, the Spurs aren’t the Jazz, Suns, or Clippers, but seeing how competitive Dallas can be against quality competition, even on an off night, is the mark of a good team.
Is This the Philadelphia 76ers’ Year?
It feels like if there were to be a year where the Philadelphia 76ers are to break through, this is the one. Joel Embiid has played at an MVP level this season, in large part due to his “Harden-esque” ability to get to the foul line (11.5 FTA per game). Ben Simmons has a strong case that he’s the Defensive Player of the Year, Tobias Harris has been fantastic this year and deserves more league-wide respect, and the Sixers are getting nice production from key role players like Shake Milton, Seth Curry, Danny Green, and Dwight Howard.
From the advanced metrics, it certainly seems like the 76ers are a legitimate title threat. Their net rating is tied with Denver for being 5th best in the NBA and they have the 2nd best defensive rating. Despite Embiid missing ample time post All-Star, the 76ers have ranked 3rd in net rating and 1st in defensive rating in that span. This team will be tough to beat because of how elite their defense is, but that’s never been the problem for Philly in the postseason. Rather, it’s been their ineffective offense, particularly in the half court.
My favorite point to bring up regarding Philadelphia’s half court offense revolves around Jimmy Butler. Many Sixers’ fans love to remind everyone how they were three lucky Kawhi bounces away from being in the Eastern Conference Finals, but many leave out a crucial piece: Jimmy Butler was by far Philadelphia’s best player in the postseason. Butler’s ability to initiate the half court offense was essential; he ran a smooth P&R with Joel Embiid, but was also able to break down his defender and get a bucket with minimal help. In the prior year, the 76ers got beat 4-1 by the Celtics in large part because their half court offense sputtered (yes, it was a close 4-1, but the Celtics schemed Ben Simmons out of being an impact that series). Last year, while Philadelphia’s performance can be scrubbed because of Simmons’ injury, their roster was once again devoid of half court orchestrators. This season, while the 76ers have finally addressed their spacing woes, they have once again failed to address the issue of not having a guy capable of running the show in the half court. Ben Simmons has yet to prove he can be that guy in the postseason, and while Tobias Harris has excelled in a P&R setting this year, but it constitutes a small part of his overall play. If Philadelphia went out to get Kyle Lowry, I think they could have won the title this year. Now, I’m once again not sold.
While I am a bit pessimistic on Philadelphia’s title chances, there are quite a few things working in their favor. First, the top teams in the East do not have the personnel to guard Joel Embiid. Brook Lopez and the trio of Nets’ aging bigs (Aldridge, Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan), are not serious threats to stop Embiid. If the Celtics were to draw Philadelphia in the first round, maybe Tristan Thompson can put up a fight because of his size, but he’s struggled with Boston this year. Second, because of Philadelphia’s defensive ability, they have the potential to knock off Milwaukee or Brooklyn. Philadelphia funnels a lot to Joel Embiid at the rim, who’s a dominant force inside, but Ben Simmons is a game-wrecker on that end of the court as well. The 76ers have had tremendous success in defending Giannis Antetokounmpo in the past and while it’s slightly more complicated with Jrue Holiday in the mix now too, their personnel allows them to match up well against their competition. It’s just a matter of getting the offense right. As of now, I don’t know how that happens with their current roster.
Don’t Sleep on the Milwaukee Bucks
If I had to pick a team right now to win the title, I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of the Milwaukee Bucks. Although Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t win a third straight MVP, he’s having another tremendous year. Khris Middleton remains one of the most underrated players in the NBA, but the X-factor this year is Jrue Holiday. In the postseason against Miami, it was painfully evident that what Milwaukee was missing was playmakers. They surrounded Giannis with a bevy of shooters, but when Miami “built the wall” and he was forced to pass, nobody, aside from Middleton, was capable of making a play. Eric Bledsoe has that skillset, but he was always ineffective in the postseason. Now, enter Jrue Holiday, a terrific secondary playmaker who can create his own shot, get to the rim, or connect from deep. Holiday is also a terrific perimeter defender who has had tremendous postseason success. He was a home run acquisition.
Looking at Milwaukee’s roster, it’s hard not to love what they’ve done. Their drop coverage defensive scheme has been “iffy” this year, in large part because teams have been terrific from 3-PT range, likely due to limited capacity crowds. However, they have the personnel this season to change things up and be more versatile, especially with the acquisition of P.J. Tucker. Milwaukee’s bench was thin preseason, but now, it’s fairly stacked considering their starting five. The Bucks are likely to still start Donte DiVincenzo in the postseason, so they’ll have a bench grouping of P.J. Tucker, Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, Jeff Teague, Pat Connaughton, and Austin Rivers. That’s going to be tough to beat.
For the season, the Bucks rank 4th in net rating (+6.2), which is top in the East. They rank 5th in offensive rating and 7th in defensive rating, further illustrating their elite play. Yes, the 76ers have the scheme and personnel to have success defending Milwaukee, but on the other side, how do the 76ers consistently score? The easy answer is “throw it to Embiid”, but teams have shown it’s much more complicated than that. If it were that easy, then Philadelphia would have multiple titles by now. As for the other top contender, I actually think Milwaukee has a somewhat comparable level of talent on their roster as Brooklyn does. Yes, Brooklyn’s top three are better than Milwaukee’s and Joe Harris is the 7th best player, but Milwaukee’s depth is a huge advantage. While it is a bit ridiculous that Brooklyn, a cap-strapped team with basically zero trade assets, was still able to add LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin, that might hamper them in the postseason. Neither Aldridge nor Griffin can move like they used to (even though Blake has discovered some juice in Brooklyn again) and don’t help a poor defense. If they get serious minutes over Nicolas Claxton, it might be a negative (at times) for Brooklyn.
The Pressure is on the Los Angeles Clippers
One team that is really flying under-the-radar is the Los Angeles Clippers, but that does not mean the pressure has subsided in Southern California. Last season, many anointed the Clippers as NBA Champions before the season even started. While that was primarily Patrick Beverley and other Clippers’ players, having an embarrassing meltdown was quite the show. A decent amount of change happened in L.A. this past summer and the loss seemed to have humbled the Clippers quite a bit. However, this is still a team that boasts arguably the most talented roster in the Western Conference. Anything less than a Finals appearance is a disappointment.
This season, the Clippers have a lot going in their favor. They are the best volume 3-PT shooting team in NBA history (42.1% on 34.5 attempts per game), they still have two of the best two-way players in the league (Kawhi Leonard and Paul George), and a bevy of talented role players like Serge Ibaka, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris Sr., Nicolas Batum, Luke Kennard, and more. Defensively, the Clippers can run a closing time lineup of Patrick Beverley, George, Leonard, Morris, and Ibaka, but they have the versatility to opt for more offense as well by swapping Beverley for Kennard or Batum. This roster’s versatility is still their best trait.
At the deadline, I thought the Clippers should have went bold, but they were rather conservative. Trading Lou Williams and two second round picks for Rajon Rondo was certainly an interesting move, but one I understood. Williams’ time with the Clippers seemed destined to end and he was relentlessly targeted defensively last postseason and this year so far. While Rondo is erratic and a wild card, he was incredibly impactful for the Los Angeles Lakers last season, especially in the NBA Finals. As a Mavericks fan, I’ll never like Rondo, but “Playoff Rondo” is still a thing (at times). The Clippers needed a point guard to set things up easily and Rondo could, in theory, be that guy. I thought the Clippers should have taken a shot at someone like George Hill or Ricky Rubio, but I guess Rondo works too.
As for the Clippers’ postseason outlook, there’s a few things that make them particularly potent. Their defensive versatility is obvious, but what about their offense, which ranks #1 in the NBA and could be the best in NBA history by the end of the year? A large part is due to their scorching shooting from beyond the arc, but with limited fans, that is a bump every team has experienced. Relying on hot shooting is not sustainable; just look last season where the Clippers couldn’t miss against the Mavs, only to not be able to make a bucket over the final three second halves versus Denver. However, I don’t think I’d be particularly eager to give George, Morris, Kennard, or Kawhi open looks from deep, along with other guys too. Once again, it’s hard to envision any team in the West beating the Clippers on paper, but there is certainly a postseason demon the Clips now need to overcome. The Lakers still have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Nuggets toppled them last year and have the personnel to pose problems for L.A., Utah and Phoenix are terrific, and, don’t sleep on the Mavericks, who arguably could’ve beaten the Clippers last year if not for Kristaps Porzingis’ ejection + injury. I think the Clippers probably should be considered a slight favorite out West, even over a healthy Lakers club, but this is such a loaded conference that nothing is a given.
Miscellaneous Add-Ins
Denver is a Problem: Since acquiring Aaron Gordon, the Nuggets are 7-1 and have the 5th best net rating in the NBA. While Denver was on the wrong side of a 31-3 run to Boston and had overblown drama with Nikola Jokic sitting away from the team during a timeout, that doesn’t change Denver’s dominance (and Jamal Murray didn’t play). With Aaron Gordon, the Nuggets now have an elite defender in tow along with a dynamic partner for Nikola Jokic. Good luck stopping a P&R featuring the Joker and Gordon.
I mentioned it earlier and stand by it: I think the Nuggets are the best team in the West. Although their patented depth is no longer present, this is still a loaded team that has the MVP. Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic is an elite starting five, but having a bench unit of Facundo Campazzo, Monte Morris, JaMychal Green, Paul Millsap, P.J. Dozier, and JaVale McGee is solid as well. Although Jokic is likely the MVP, I still think people underrate him. He can do everything offensively and is such a dynamic playmaker, especially with Denver’s cutting ability. I wouldn’t want to face the Nuggets come postseason time.
The Curious Case of the Toronto Raptors: It has been a turbulent, wild ride for the Toronto Raptors this season. As a starter, I mentioned this in the off-season but I think this should be a mulligan year for them. After all, they are the Toronto Raptors, yet are playing in Tampa Bay and living away from their usual homes for months. That doesn’t get mentioned, but it is a huge hinderance for their ability to succeed.
Right now, Toronto is 11th in the Eastern Conference but just 2 GB of the play-in tournament. The Raptors have gotten hammered by COVID-19 and injuries; Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Kyle Lowry have all missed 10+ games and OG Anunoby has missed 19. It’s impossible to win with your best players missing roughly 20% of the season and playing hundreds of miles away from home, yet, the Raptors have been competing. In fact, Toronto actually has a positive net rating this season, yet sit at just 21-33. While part of that is due to some lopsided blowouts they delivered, it also indicates that Toronto isn’t that bad. Acquiring Gary Trent Jr. for Norman Powell seems like a huge steal, Chris Boucher’s development has been promising, and Fred VanVleet has remained above average despite getting a new contract. Toronto’s frontcourt play has been abysmal this season, but adding Khem Birch hopefully changes that. I don’t think it’s out of the question to say Toronto makes the play-in tournament.
This offseason, however, will be a time for difficult questions. Franchise icon Kyle Lowry is a free agent and Toronto neglected to trade him at the deadline, even when it seemed like he was a lock to be dealt. Perhaps he returns, but if he walks, the Raptors are significantly worse off. Additionally, there’s also the curious case of Pascal Siakam. Masai Ujiri is never one to be shy and I wouldn’t be stunned to see Siakam dealt, or at least shopped, this summer. His max contract makes him difficult to move, but Siakam has butted heads with Nick Nurse at times this year and has been punished for other infractions as well. It’s a tough time for everyone and I don’t know all the details, so while I’ll cut Siakam some slack, that may not be the case. I wouldn’t be stunned if Toronto blew it up a bit, letting Lowry walk and trading Siakam. I would imagine teams like Minnesota, Golden State, Dallas, Charlotte, and San Antonio could pursue Siakam on the trade market.
Portland’s Dilemma: An annual question is “are the Portland Trail Blazers for real?” and once again, he we are. On the one hand, Portland’s offense is elite, but their defense is horrible. When you have Damian Lillard, you’re always a threat, but in my opinion, Portland is not a serious contender this season. Simply put, their defense just isn’t good enough to win multiple seven game series, especially against Utah, Phoenix, Denver, and the Los Angeles squads.
As an expanded note, Damian Lillard has established himself as a bona fide franchise-changing guy, which illustrates his legacy in the game. I’m not sure why he, and other individuals, feel as if he’s so disrespected in the league. He’s universally thought of as a top-10 player, which is an appropriate rating. I admire Lillard for his loyalty to Portland and willingness to take on a challenge, but let’s pump the brakes on the disrespect tour.
If the Blazers once again fall short this season, change has to come. This would be the fourth or fifth straight year where they will run this same roster into the postseason; they can’t keep affording to not win a game in the Conference Finals (or even make it). I’d keep an eye on Portland as their performance in the postseason (and even down the stretch) could alter the NBA landscape this summer. They could look to swing C.J. McCollum for a different sidekick for Lillard (think Bradley Beal) and they have plenty of intriguing young prospects waiting in the wings like Anfernee Simons, Nassir Little, and to a lesser extent, Zach Collins. I don’t envy Neil Olshey’s position here, but these next few months are monumental for Portland.
The Charlotte Hornets’ Horrible Luck: Right now, the Charlotte Hornets are 6th in the Eastern Conference, but they seem destined to slide. The Hornets have gotten a bit lucky this year record-wise, as they’ve had a few games swing their way that they should have lost. However, this team has also watched their two best players, LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward, be sidelined for multiple weeks due to injury. In LaMelo’s case, it seems like he may be out for the season, although there’s been some conflicting timelines.
Regardless, the Charlotte Hornets have deserved better this season. Terry Rozier has been terrific and has silenced all the skeptics about his contract. Devonte Graham has struggled a bit from his sensational campaign last year, but he’s still been an impactful role player. Miles Bridges has taken a step forward, P.J. Washington’s potential is still apparent, and Cody Zeller has remained a steady presence inside. I really like this Hornets roster and with a healthy LaMelo and Hayward, they’re a very good team.
Charlotte is another team in a really intriguing spot. Making the postseason might allow LaMelo to play and his dazzling playmaking skill could gift the Hornets an upset. However, this season has to be optimistic for those in the Queen City. Remember, this was a team in uncharted salary cap hell and saw their franchise stud, Kemba Walker, leave, in part due to reports that they low-balled him. This has been an underrated turnaround for the Hornets to go from a team I deemed headed for the NBA gutter, to being one of the more promising young squads. They could get aggressive this summer too and add even more talent to the roster. Watch out for Charlotte over the next few seasons.
The Chirp 