It’s Wednesday, which means it’s time for The Chirp’s Weekly NBA Notebook. Every Wednesday, we’ll be breaking down some of the biggest NBA storylines and chronicle some of our own observations from the past week while touching on some season-long storylines as well.
This is an emotional week in the NBA as we remember Kobe Bryant, his daughter Gigi, and all of the others who unfortunately passed away in a tragic helicopter crash on January 26th, 2020. Kobe’s impact on the game will live on forever, but seeing his love for Gigi and being a “girl dad” was just as impactful as everything he was able to do on the court. Kobe not only made the NBA a better league, he made the world a better place. His “Mamba Mentality” will forever inspire generations of players.
How Real are the Utah Jazz?
For the past few seasons, I feel like we go down this path with the Utah Jazz every single year. Utah goes on a torrid stretch and many start classifying them as a legitimate title threat, yet when the postseason comes around, they can’t get over the hump. While their postseason experience in Orlando should be taken with a grain of salt since they were without Bojan Bogdanovic and Mike Conley for a few games, blowing a 3-1 lead isn’t ideal and could be a mental hurdle for them to overcome. However, the Jazz haven’t dwelled on the collapse this season so far; they’re off to a 13-4 start (3rd best in the NBA) and have the 4th best point differential in the league. According to FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement metric, Mike Conley ranks third in the entire NBA; the only two players above him are Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard. While advanced metrics like that can appear bombastic with the rankings, that isn’t to say Mike Conley is actually a top-5 player in the NBA; rather, their metric is indicating how valuable he’s been this season. Many thought Utah’s acquisition of Conley last season would make them a title contender but he struggled to really mesh with the rest of the roster for much of the season. This year, it’s been a lot more seamless. Conley is averaging 16.4 PPG and 5.9 APG while shooting 42.2% from 3-PT range. Conley is easily having the most efficient season of his career and the Jazz are 17.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. Utah’s starting five of Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, and Rudy Gobert has a net rating of +19.9 (Clippers’ starting five is only group higher that has played over 100 minutes together) and on two-man lineups, Conley and any starter are, at minimum, boasting a net rating of 15.5.
For a long time, the Jazz were always associated with defense, slow pace, and a lack of explosion. It wasn’t really until Utah bricked wide open three after wide open three against Houston two years ago that they finally embraced a more modern system and it’s worked beautifully. Through the Bogdanovic and Conley acquisitions, Utah placed more of a premium on perimeter shooting and offense while sacrificing defense, letting Derrick Favors go via trade to New Orleans. The Jazz also bolstered their bench with Jordan Clarkson, who is the early frontrunner for 6th Man of the Year in what was one of the most underrated acquisitions from a year ago. Now, Utah has fully completed their transformation to a more modern team and they brought back Favors this off-season in a reserve role behind Gobert, one that has been a huge boost to the team and should pay major dividends come playoff time.
The issue with the Jazz, as mentioned, is it seems like this is a recurring theme for Utah. They have a strong stretch of the regular season, people buy in, then they let us down. This year, however, I feel differently about Utah. For starters, Donovan Mitchell’s continued growth should improve the overall ceiling of the team; while his current numbers are similar to those of last year, he is slightly more efficient. Utah likely needs Mitchell to be closer to a top-15 guy in the NBA if they really want to win a title, but right now, I’m expecting him to continue to improve. Utah’s starting five is fantastic and they fit perfectly alongside each other; truthfully, their starting five arguably may be the best in the NBA right now. However, the biggest reason for optimism is this Utah team is significantly deeper than any prior Jazz team. Last year, Utah had a thin bench and it was stretched out more with Bogdanovic’s injury and the year before, they were relying on injury-prone players who were a bit enigmatic. Now, Utah has three reliable guys off the bench who could likely start for most teams: Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, and Derrick Favors. The Jazz have multiple players who can create their own shot or looks for others, a plethora of guys who are above average/elite 3-PT shooters (Jazz are the second best 3-PT shooting team in the league and were the best last year), and a great amount of versatility. The team’s roster construction is very, very strong. There is a concern that the end of Utah’s bench is razor thin and one or two injuries would be particularly devastating, although that applies to most teams. Shaquille Harrison and Georges Niang, in particular, are solid end-of-bench reserves.
Overall, Utah’s hot play is something we’ve seen before (albeit, Utah usually starts out fairly slow), but I really think this year is different. In my opinion, Quin Snyder is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA, they have a perfect blend of offense/defense, their among the most versatile teams in the league, and have some of the top-end bench talent in the field. Don’t be so eager to cross Utah off because of their past failures; this is a much better Utah team.
(Utah is on an nine-game winning streak and 8/9 wins have been by double digits. That’s unreal).
Can Brooklyn Defend Enough to Win a Championship?
Since the Brooklyn Nets have acquired James Harden and had him active, they are 4-2. While Brooklyn does boast an impressive victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn has also had a notable hiccup, losing a “series” set to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Brooklyn followed it up with a series sweep over the Miami Heat, but this isn’t the same Heat team that made it to the NBA Finals last season; Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Avery Bradley all missed both games. So, yes, the Nets are 4-2 since the trade, but they haven’t yet been as dominant as expected.
A major reason why Brooklyn has struggled is because their defense has been horrible. Since the trade, the Nets have allowed an average of 119.8 PPG and that includes Miami scoring 84 points in one game. It’s fair to point out they allowed 147 in a 2OT game against Cleveland as well, but removing the two “outliers”, the Nets are still allowing 121.8 PPG in the other four. Brooklyn’s defensive rating ranks 20th in the NBA and simply put, that’s way too poor to win the NBA Finals. Take a look at the past 5 NBA Champions’ defensive ratings:
| Year | Team | Defensive Rating |
| 2016 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 10th (103.9) |
| 2017 | Golden State Warriors | 2nd (103.4) |
| 2018 | Golden State Warriors | 11th (106.8) |
| 2019 | Toronto Raptors | 5th (106.8) |
| 2020 | Los Angeles Lakers | 3rd (106.1) |
At worst, it appears your defense has to be above average to win a NBA title. While that isn’t a written rule inscribed on the Larry O’Brien Trophy, history shows us that bad defensive teams don’t traditionally raise banners. Brooklyn has the superstar power to possibly overcome their defensive woes, but not a defense that ranks 20th in the NBA; if they are unable to improve their defense to at least a league average level, then I wouldn’t expect them to go far in the postseason.
Looking at Brooklyn’s roster, a major reason why I wasn’t a huge fan of the James Harden deal for Brooklyn was because they had enough talent to win a title with their current roster; adding Harden, an offensive maestro who refuses to play defense, just didn’t mesh with the build of the team. Many would argue that when you have Durant, Irving, and Harden, it doesn’t really matter, but historically, defense/roster construction has shown to be able to outperform talent that doesn’t coalesce. Brooklyn’s biggest weaknesses before the trade were their defense and rebounding, yet the deal didn’t improve either area and weakened arguably their biggest strength, which was their depth. Trust me, I get the allure to adding as much star power as possible, but the Nets will be relying on Jeff Green, DeAndre Jordan, and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot to play sizeable minutes for them in the postseason; that’s a problem.
I expect the Nets to remain fairly active on the trade market in the coming months, although they literally cannot trade a first-round pick at all. Still, Brooklyn would be wise to add some frontcourt depth and another wing player or two. They’ll have to go bargain-bin hunting for these players, but names like Robin Lopez, Ed Davis, and Glenn Robinson III could be targets.
Watch Out for the Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors got off to a 2-8 start to the year, extremely uncharacteristic for a team that usually thrives in the regular season. In my opinion, a lot of things contributed to this rough start, namely the fact that the club had to completely relocate cities to Tampa Bay due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While all teams are struggling with COVID-19, no team outside of Toronto had to completely upend even the most basic things like their traditional living situation. Compounding this problem, Toronto saw two key players depart in free agency (Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol), and their primary replacement, Aron Baynes, has played quite poorly to start. Yet, the Raptors’ advantage comes from the man on the sidelines: Nick Nurse. Nurse is one of the best coaches in the NBA and while the start was rocky, Toronto has won five of seven and is quietly right back in the thick of things in the Eastern Conference.
A major calling card of Toronto’s teams under Nurse has been their defensive scheme, which is similar to many cutting-edge systems we’ve seen. Essentially, the Raptors and other teams (namely Milwaukee) attempt to cut off all baskets at the rim and force opponents into 3-PT shots, preferably from the wing or top of the key, or mid-range jumpers. This strategy limits the most efficient shots, but when the other team gets hot from deep, it’s a bit of boom/bust territory. Toronto’s defense has been completely average this season so far, primarily because teams have shot a solid percentage from deep, but also because teams have been getting to the foul line at will. Aron Baynes is not the interior defender that Gasol or Ibaka is and while Chris Boucher is a per-minute monster, he’s also foul-prone. This system for Toronto, where they force teams into 3-PT shots, is only successful with a strong interior player to protect the rim; Baynes hasn’t provided that this year and while Boucher has, he’s only recently had his minutes increased. In that span, Toronto has improved, but this year’s roster is nowhere near as good as Raptors’ teams of the past.
The interesting thing is for Toronto that considering how elite their player development program is, this season can turn around quickly for them. As they become more comfortable in their unique situation as well, I expect their performance to improve. Toronto missed a lot of shots to begin the year, but their 3-PT% has quickly risen to 8th best in the NBA. Pascal Siakam has gotten off to a sluggish start and we’re likely to see some positive regression in terms of his performance. Meanwhile, OG Anunoby has come on strong recently and we’ve mentioned Boucher’s breakout, but as players like Malachi Flynn and Stanley Johnson, for example, continue to get more minutes, they should also improve. I’m fairly bullish on Toronto continuing to improve and getting in the postseason, but I also think it’s fair to temper expectations with this team. The advantage they have with Nick Nurse can only go so far, but they’re likely in the 6-7 seed range and could pose some danger to a potential first-round matchup.
Final Notes: Shams’ Trade Rumors & Other Names
Shams Charania of The Athletic published a new “Inside Pass” article yesterday that mentioned how the Pelicans were open to offers for Lonzo Ball and J.J. Redick. Both players are entering free agency this off-season (Lonzo will be restricted) and reportedly, New Orleans would like to open up some playing time for Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis Jr., two of their first-round picks over the past two drafts. The problem for New Orleans is that both players are having poor seasons and because of their impending free agent status, both will likely see a depressed return. J.J. Redick, who has been one of the best shooters in the NBA throughout his entire career, is connecting on just 30.0% of his 3-PT attempts this season. The Dallas Mavericks, who are 29th in 3-PT% and are pushing for a playoff berth, make plenty of sense as a Redick destination, as would Miami and Golden State. Lonzo Ball has a lot of upside left, but his inconsistent shooting and stagnation in his offensive development has to be a turnoff for teams, especially considering they’ll have to pay him likely well north of $10M this summer to retain him. I could see the New York Knicks and Tom Thibodeau taking a shot on him via trade; he’d add some excitement and marketability to the Knicks and Thibs has gone all in on defense in a surprising start for New York. If the Los Angeles Clippers really wanted a playmaker, they make some sense as well.
Last week, I detailed mock trades for P.J. Tucker, Buddy Hield, and Aaron Gordon, but this week, I want to focus on Bradley Beal. After John Wall got his sought-after revenge over the Washington Wizards last night, Beal’s body language on the bench wasn’t the best. Now, upset after a defeat (and a 3-10 start) is vastly different than actually requesting a trade, but I think it’s fair to consider Beal’s future as questionable with the Wizards. Remember, Beal wanted to play with Wall this season and the Wizards publicly declared that as well, yet sent Wall to Houston for Russell Westbrook just weeks later. Considering the teams struggles yet Beal’s ascension to super stardom, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the next big name to be moved. He deserves to play for a contender.
From a pure fit standpoint, there’s not a better landing spot for Beal than in Philadelphia. The 76ers have the assets to build a pretty enticing package to get Beal, although I’m sure Washington would demand Ben Simmons in any return. Nearly every team is a fantastic fit for Beal, but not many have the possible package to truly entice the Wizards. The Celtics could likely get a good deal working for Beal as well, as could the Denver Nuggets, but considering how much it took to land Paul George, Anthony Davis, and James Harden in recent years, you’re essentially eyeing a package that includes 1-2 young players with star potential, 3 first-round picks (and likely 2+ being unprotected), and multiple pick swaps. Philadelphia can do Tyrese Maxey, Matisse Thybulle, and fulfill the pick obligations; Boston probably can’t find the young star to include, although they have a plethora of recent first-round selections, Marcus Smart, and a lot of picks; and Denver can make the best package. If Beal were really available and I’m Denver, I’ll jump all over it. While I still think Aaron Gordon alongside Nikola Jokic should happen, the Nuggets could deal Michael Porter Jr. and likely two unprotected first-round picks for Beal; sure, that’s a hefty price, but that would make them a legitimate Finals contender. Plus, they’d still have the assets to grab Aaron Gordon; a starting five of Jamal Murray, Bradley Beal, Gary Harris, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic is downright unfair, especially with Monte Morris, Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green, and Bol Bol coming off the bench.
The Chirp 