Welcome to another rendition of The Chirp’s Monday College Basketball Notebook. Every Monday, we’ll be bringing you some of our key thoughts from the past week’s games and storylines we’re watching as the season progresses. As the great Jon Rothstein says: “We Sleep in May”
If college basketball taught us anything this week, it’s that it remains the most unpredictable sport in the world. A team can look unbeatable one night only to lose by 20+ the next time out; while some of that is the law of averages at work, a lot of it is the nature of the sport. Chaos reigns supreme in college hoops and considering the uncertainty this year, I’m not surprised we’ve seen plenty of surprises. With back-to-backs being commonplace for mid-major conferences as well, there’s been lots of teams with uneven performances and this week saw that on display to the extreme.
The Oddity of the Big Ten
If someone asked you last Tuesday night who the best team in the Big Ten is, nearly 99% of respondents would have said the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan put a thumping on a very good Wisconsin team on Tuesday, one that some said was the most impressive win any team has had this year. Watching the game, it was really tough to argue that. While Michigan shot unnaturally good from deep (56.3%) and Wisconsin struggled from the floor, Michigan’s defense also completely flummoxed Wisconsin’s offense. The Badgers rarely got anything easy because of Michigan’s hyper-active hands, length, and great energy. As someone who was a tad skeptical of Michigan earlier this year, they found a believer in me from that performance.
Yet, just six days later, I think many people would now say the Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team in the Big Ten. How is that possible? Well, Michigan went out on Saturday and got blown out by the Minnesota Golden Gophers at The Barn, losing 75-57. While the shooting regression was easy to predict (they connected on just 27.3% of their 3-PT attempts), they still held Minnesota to just 22.2% from downtown. The turnovers killed Michigan in the game and with Zavier Simpson gone to graduation, point guard play has been a simmering question mark all year for the Wolverines. Mike Smith, a transfer from Columbia, has been really solid this year as the starter, but is he enough of an impact player? Michigan’s best player right now is freshman big man Hunter Dickinson and while Dickinson has been fantastic this year, he struggled this past week against Wisconsin and Minnesota. I’m interested in seeing how Dickinson performs against Luka Garza and Kofi Cockburn later on in Big Ten play before determining how far I think Michigan can go in the NCAA Tournament this year.
It feels like the Iowa Hawkeyes have flown under-the-radar ever since their loss to Gonzaga, primarily because it exposed Iowa’s lack of defense. However, one thing that we’ve emphasized on here is the volatility of Iowa’s style; because they’re so reliant on perimeter shooting, there’s inevitably going to be some nights where the team is way off from deep and they’ll lose. In Iowa’s loss to Gonzaga, they shot 18.2% from 3-PT range and in their loss to Minnesota (a game they arguably should’ve won), they shot 33.3% from 3-PT range. For the year, the Hawkeyes are shooting 39.5% from downtown, the 18th best percentage in college basketball. When they’re off from deep, their defense is not good enough to win them the game, although their offense is too good to completely knock them out. A great example of this was their loss to Minnesota; while they shot 33.3% and lost, the Hawkeyes were up seven with 44 seconds left before falling apart. Iowa dominated the glass in that one and Luka Garza’s greatness keeps Iowa in every game. This team’s ceiling is one of the highest in college basketball when they’re on and we’ve seen it in Big Ten play. 11 of Iowa’s 12 victories have been by double figures including wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern (x2). Hopefully you didn’t fully hop off the Iowa bandwagon because they are still here and they are still very scary. I can’t wait for January 29th, where Iowa heads to Champaign to take on Illinois, a team I declared as the best in the Big Ten two weeks ago.
Who is the Top Team in the ACC?
While the Big Ten had a weird week (and in general, there was lots of weirdness this week), the ACC was not far behind. With many people hyping up the Louisville Cardinals heading into Saturday, they went out and lost to a Miami team that was without arguably its top three players. While Miami has been highly competitive without Chris Lykes and Kameron McGusty all year, for a team many thought was the best in the ACC, that’s a game Louisville should win. I, for one, have not been particularly bullish on Louisville this year. Chris Mack and the Cardinals lost a lot from last year’s team and it’s impressive they’re performing this well, especially since Malik Williams has yet to play in a game. However, Louisville has skated by in a lot of games; they beat Seton Hall by 1, Kentucky by 3, and Virginia Tech by 2 this year. The Virginia Tech win is certainly impressive, but that’s the Cardinals’ lone win over a team that is certainly tournament bound and they narrowly won. We’ll learn a lot more about Louisville starting tonight against Florida State but also Saturday against Duke. Louisville has only played five road games this year and are 3-2 in those games; they’re perfect at home and get both Florida State and Duke at the KFC Yum! Center this week. These will be worthy challenges for the Cardinals and give us a litmus test on how good Chris Mack’s team is.
I’ve quietly maintained all year that Virginia is clearly the best team in the ACC and they made me look smart on Saturday when they demolished the Clemson Tigers, who entered that game as the #1 defense in the country according to KenPom. Virginia has had a weird year for a lot of reasons; they narrowly lost to San Francisco early in the year then went on a COVID pause about a week later. COVID cost them games against Michigan State and Villanova and in their second game back, they got demolished by Gonzaga, who has destroyed nearly every team they’ve faced. Since the Gonzaga loss, Virginia has won five straight and while four of those wins are against the bottom-level ACC, that Clemson victory was beyond impressive. Virginia is loaded with talent and their pack-line defense is a pain to go up against. Sam Hauser, a transfer from Marquette, has been great recently for the Hoos, as has forward Jay Huff, guard Kihei Clark, and Trey Murphy III has really emerged as of late too. We know Virginia’s style is extremely conducive to regular season success and given the struggles of the traditional blue bloods Duke, North Carolina, and Syracuse this year, it’s tough to see a team who is better than UVA in the ACC.
The one team, outside of Louisville, that might be able to make a case for surpassing Virginia is Florida State. The Seminoles had one of the best offensive performances of the century last week against NC State where they scored 105 points on 70.7% shooting and 66.7% from 3-PT range. Florida State is due for some regression soon, but it didn’t come against North Carolina on Saturday despite being without prized freshman Scottie Barnes, who missed the game with an ankle sprain. Florida State’s roster, as always, is super deep, but their top-end talent is really, really underrated. Barnes is a legitimate top-10 prospect in the upcoming draft, senior M.J. Walker is really putting it together this season, RaiQuan Gray is such a unique player due to his frame and skill, and Anthony Polite is a solid glue guy. The Seminoles have flown under-the-radar because the ACC isn’t as good as in year’s past and they’ve yet to play a signature game, but this team has victories over Indiana, Florida, NC State, and North Carolina so far this season. This is a monumental week for the ‘Noles, as they face Louisville on the road tonight and host Clemson on Saturday; they need at least a split, but if they sweep the week? Watch out, they’ll be gaining plenty of momentum.
It should be noted to keep an eye on Virginia Tech and Clemson as well, although I think while both teams are solid, neither are in that top tier. One sleeper team is Miami and while their 2-5 conference record makes it nearly impossible for them to win the ACC regular season title, they are a very good basketball team who has played the majority of the season without their best player Chris Lykes. Miami has faced a litany of injuries and their 6-6 record is highly misleading; they lost to Virginia Tech, Clemson, and North Carolina by a combined four points. Lykes may return soon as could Kameron McGusty and Earl Timberlake; if the Hurricanes are fully healthy, what’s to say they couldn’t go on a run? Miami would love to get those guys back for the Syracuse game on Tuesday night. If they lose to Cuse then, they’ll be entering must-win territory with a stretch of games that includes Notre Dame, Florida State, Wake Forest, and Duke coming up. I think if the Canes were at full strength they’d be in the discussion for top team in the ACC; with them getting closer to being healthy, I think they’ll sneak up on some people in the coming weeks.
Don’t Sleep on These Mid-Majors
Loyola Chicago (10-3, 5-1): Loyola Chicago is known because of their Cinderella run to the Final Four a few years back, but Porter Moser has done a great job maintaining success within the program over the past few seasons as well. Currently, the Ramblers are 35th in KenPom, which is an elite mark for a mid-major. The only mid-major ranked above them is Saint Louis, a team many had inside their preseason top-25. The Ramblers do have three losses this year, but all are rather excusable. Loyola lost to Wisconsin in Madison by 12, to a very good Richmond team on a neutral site by 2 points, and a conference loss to Indiana State by 5 (which they avenged the next day with a 10 point victory). Cameron Krutwig, who was on the Final Four team, has had a tremendous season and is the anchor of the offense. Loyola’s defense is fantastic and while they’re battling with an undefeated Drake team for the top of the conference, they should be in the mix for a potential at-large bid regardless. They do lack a signature non-conference win, but if Loyola finishes around 20-5, they’ll have a strong case to make.
St. Bonaventure (6-1, 4-1): While Saint Louis and Richmond get all the hype in the A10, both have had recent games delayed because of COVID, which has given the St. Bonaventure Bonnies a shot to take the lead in the A10. Currently, St. Bonaventure is tied with UMass, but the Bonnies rank 58th in KenPom and have a tremendous coach in Mark Schmidt at the helm. St. Bonaventure’s season has been thrown into flux because of COVID as well, but the Bonnies’ sole loss was a narrow road defeat to Rhode Island, their first game in 11 days and just their third of the year (come December 30th). The Bonnies have already beaten Richmond once and while they’ve beaten up a bit on bottom-feeders like Fordham and Saint Joseph’s, the team has plenty of talent in the backcourt, which is highlighted by Jaren Holmes and Kyle Lofton. This is a monumental week for the Bonnies’ at-large hopes, as they face VCU and Saint Louis, two of the top-5 teams in the conference and two potential at-large teams themselves. Winning both will be tough, but that home game against VCU is a must-win if St. Bonaventure wants to get the at-large bid.
Toledo Rockets (11-4, 6-1): The MAC is known for its high-scoring, wacky college football games, but it has quietly churned out a quality basketball team in Toledo this season, a squad that ranks 15th in adjusted offense by KenPom. The Rockets are the 13th best 3-PT shooting team in the country and because of their style, they can beat any team on any given night. Toledo has four players averaging north of 13.5 PPG and are a dangerous club. As of now, Toledo’s at-large hopes are rather slim; their non-conference losses aren’t horrible, but falling to Bradley and Xavier leaves them basically zero room for error come conference play, where they just dropped an OT game to a middling Akron squad. The game on January 30th against fellow 6-1 club Bowling Green will be huge in determining who wins the regular season MAC title.
Furman Paladins (10-3, 4-0): Furman was a team that made some noise earlier this year for their two competitive non-conference losses against Cincinnati and Alabama. If Furman were able to hang on against Bama, they likely would have a case for an at-large spot; now, with those two losses and a blowout defeat against Winthrop (who is one of the better mid-majors this year as well), Furman likely has to secure the automatic bid from the Southern Conference. It’ll be tricky, as there are plenty of quality teams who put up a ton of points in the conference. However, Furman is the most talented and Mike Bothwell has a case to be the best player in the conference.
The Chirp 