While the NFL postseason is rolling strong, 24 teams have already started looking forward to the next season. There are seven head coaching vacancies open and a ton of moving parts expected within the next few months. Teams with star quarterbacks are aiming for a rebuild, teams in need of a quarterback are far outside the traditional range of drafting one, and even more so, there’s a surplus of teams who need a quarterback over starting quarterbacks readily available.
In today’s post, we’ll detail a primary off-season storyline from each team currently eliminated, along with diving into the quarterback carousel and conducting a “coach draft”, where both Jon and I will predict which coaches each team should hire.
Off-Season Storylines: Teams Who Missed the Playoffs
Miami Dolphins: What Do they Do with Tua?
There’s been a lot of increasing speculation recently regarding Tua Tagovailoa’s future with the Miami Dolphins. While many thought Miami got a steal with Tua at #5 in last year’s draft, he struggled his rookie season. Considering the immense success of Joe Burrow (before his injury) and Justin Herbert, it’s easy to see why many may have soured quickly on Tua, especially factoring in Ryan Fitzpatrick’s success in running the same offense. Even so, I personally believe it would be foolish to give up on Tua so quickly. Tua was recovering from a gruesome hip injury to play his first career NFL games with a subpar receiving crew and a poor offensive line. Rushing to a judgment on his potential seems silly; he’s played just a handful of NFL games and, despite his pedestrian numbers, won a lot of them. Hiring an offensive coordinator who will be more aggressive is key; it’s a main reason why I love Georgia’s offensive coordinator Todd Monken for the position. Monken was Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator a few seasons ago when Jameis Winston/Ryan Fitzpatrick had the best passing offense in the NFL. We’ve seen teams ruin quarterbacks by keeping the training wheels on too long; if Miami can complete a Deshaun Watson deal, then it’s easy to move on from Tua. If not, what’s the harm in seeing what he could do with a new offensive coordinator, better skill players, and a full year with a somewhat normal off-season?
New England Patriots: What Direction Does New England Go?
After years of being the perennial Super Bowl favorite, the Patriots came crashing back to earth this season, finishing 7-9 and missing the postseason for what feels like the first time in eternity. While a decline was expected now that Tom Brady was in Tampa Bay, there were many of us who still expected the Patriots to be a playoff team. It was evident, however, that the Patriots were pretty bad this season. Luckily for New England, things should change for the better next year. The first order of business will be getting back a lot of defensive players who opted-out, including Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung, while also getting healthier on defense. New England’s roster as a whole is old, but the rebuild is beginning to get underway as the Patriots emphasize younger talent. With Bill Belichick on the sidelines, the Patriots are never out.
Still, there is plenty of uncertainty for New England entering the 2021-22 season. Quarterback is the biggest question mark; Cam Newton is clearly not the answer in New England and with the 15th overall pick, they are definitely outside of the Trevor Lawrence/Zach Wilson/Justin Fields range. The Patriots also have a complete lack of quality skill players on the roster; Julian Edelman is fine, but has been injury-prone, N’Keal Harry has yet to put it together, Jakobi Meyers is a nice piece, but a much better 4th or 5th option than a #2 guy, and the team is lacking a tight end which has been a staple of the Patriots for years. Their offensive line still has some intriguing pieces and their defense has some talent, but New England is clearly beginning to feel some of the side-effects of being in win-now mode for the last 15 years. For a team who won six Super Bowls, this is a very small price to pay, however.
New York Jets: The Team Needs a Vision… And Hope
The Adam Gase tenure in New York is finally over and for the Jets, it was a miserable few years. Gase’s Jets were routinely embarrassed on the field and his luck in one-possession games is the only reason why New York wasn’t the worst team in football over his years. Now, the new Jets’ head coach will be inheriting a mess of a team; the quarterback situation is murky, the offensive line is bad, there’s few promising skill players, and the team’s best player, Jamal Adams, is now in Seattle. With that being said, there is a sense of optimism in New York; General Manager Joe Douglas has a tremendous pedigree when it comes to evaluating talent, Quinnen Williams had a sensational sophomore campaign, Marcus Maye, if re-signed, looks to be a foundational piece, and Mekhi Becton was a stud during his rookie year.
The Jets certainly need a clear vision going forwards and that starts with the quarterback position. There’s essentially two schools of thought flying around New York’s camp: do we keep Sam Darnold and try to build a dominant roster around him with all the picks and cap space, or do we take advantage of the #2 pick, draft a new quarterback, and trade Darnold? This seems eerily similar to the Arizona Cardinals’ decision a few years ago when they drafted Kyler Murray and traded Josh Rosen. We’ll touch on the quarterback carousel in a bit, but if history is any indication, the Jets would be wise to draft a quarterback at #2.
Cincinnati Bengals: Building the Offense Around Joe Burrow
Although Joe Burrow’s impressive rookie season ended with a devastating knee injury, there should be plenty of optimism in Cincinnati. Burrow proved his worth as the franchise guy over and over again and the Bengals were 2-6-1 in games he both started and fully completed, including a signature win over Tennessee and highly-competitive losses to Indianapolis and Cleveland (x2). If Burrow were healthy for the full year, I think the Bengals could’ve won six games, which would drastically change the perception of this team. There were some slight rumblings regarding Zac Taylor’s future as the head coach this off-season, so I certainly think he enters the year on the hot seat.
With that being said, it’s pretty clear Cincinnati needs to upgrade their offensive line. They may miss out on stud tackle Penei Sewell in the draft, but they could land Burrow’s former college teammate Ja’Marr Chase to be his new top target. As long as the Bengals invest enough in Burrow, they’ll continue to improve. Cincinnati’s defense needs some work as well, but there’s some foundational pieces in place, including star safety Jessie Bates III. If Trae Waynes and William Jackson are healthy to start the season, Cincinnati’s secondary might be fairly decent. Lots of work still needs to be done, but things are trending upwards for the Bengals.
Houston Texans: Preventing a Deshaun Watson Falling Out
The city of Houston is in a rough patch right now with both the Rockets and Texans battling their disgruntled superstars. While James Harden publicly said “I’m done” with the Rockets last night, Watson has yet to go that far, although his displeasure with the organization is clear. Houston seems to be aiming to mend the relationship a bit, evident by their request to interview Watson’s preferred candidate, Eric Bienemy, for their head-coaching position. Houston has to smooth things over with Watson, as he’s really their only chance at success. Bill O’Brien made horrific moves as the “General Manager/HC” and has set the franchise back a few years; Watson’s greatness can compensate for those mistakes, but only if he buys in.
There has been some rumors regarding a deal centered around Tua Tagovailoa that’ll deal Watson to Miami. If Houston were forced to move on, this is probably as good as Houston would get; they could acquire Tua, recoup some of their traded assets from the Laremy Tunsil deal, and maybe add in some additional picks or lower-tier players (Preston Williams for example). This could allow Houston to really get a fresh start; they’d be away from the Bill O’Brien era with a new coach, quarterback, and replenished cupboard of assets. I’m not a proponent of trading Watson by any means, but if he does force their hand, the Texans have to jump on a potential Miami package.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Hitting on the #1 Pick + Head Coach Hire
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ fortunes shifted dramatically when the New York Jets stunned the Los Angeles Rams. Because of that win, and a subsequent Jets’ victory over the Cleveland Browns, the Jaguars are now in place to select Trevor Lawrence, who some say is the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. When watching Lawrence, there’s no denying he has superstar written all over him.
For the Jags, this opportunity comes (hopefully) once every thirty years, but for Jacksonville, it seems like the chance to get a new franchise quarterback has come far too often. Lawrence seems like the easiest selection here, but crushing the head coach hire is just as important. While the Jaguars seem enamored with Urban Meyer, I am not a fan of that choice. While Meyer has had great on-field success, off-field scandals have followed him everywhere he’s been. Winning trumps everything in sports, but for a team looking to build a new culture in Jacksonville, do you want Meyer leading it? He’s been known as an inspirational leader, but I don’t buy it. Additionally, Meyer has never coached at the NFL level and his collegiate success has been dictated by a college-style system and high-level recruiting, neither of which seems plausible at the NFL level. While collegiate offenses are slowly working their way into becoming mainstream (and rightfully so) at the NFL level, Meyer’s offensive guys have been a mixed bag in the NFL. While Alex Smith has had a heck of a career, Tim Tebow, J.T. Barrett, Dwayne Haskins, Braxton Miller, and other offensive guys have struggled. I really think hiring Meyer is far more flash than substance and would be a colossal mistake, especially considering there’s a plethora of great candidates like Brian Daboll, Eric Bienemy, Doug Pederson, Robert Saleh, Brandon Staley, Don Martindale, and more.
Denver Broncos: What To Do With Drew Lock?
The Drew Lock hype train seems to have stalled in Denver, as Lock had a very inconsistent season. I have been staunch in my support for Lock, not because I think he’s a future superstar, but more so because I feel like the Broncos are moving on way too fast. Lock has certainly shown flashes of being a starting-caliber NFL quarterback and has only played in 18 games where he has gone 8-10, not too bad of a record. The turnovers and inaccuracy is certainly a concern, but what about the big-time throws he has, including a dominant road game against Carolina? It seems like the Broncos are eager to move on from Lock.
This off-season for Denver really hinges on their Drew Lock decision. John Elway is no longer the general manager (George Paton just agreed to a deal), but the Broncos organization has shown a tendency to aggressively pursue a veteran quarterback. Denver’s defense has been staunch under Vic Fangio, their offensive line has a stalwart left tackle in Garrett Bolles, and they have a plethora of solid skill players, including Courtland Sutton who is returning from a season-ending injury. If the Broncos could land a player such as Matthew Stafford this off-season, I’m all for it. However, what if the Broncos have to choose between pursuing Jimmy Garoppolo and Drew Lock? What would the move be then? We know the ideal way to build a title contender is when a rookie quarterback is on their rookie contract and currently, Lock is on a 2nd round deal, making his salary even smaller. If he can take a step forwards next season with continuity from Pat Shurmur, then the Broncos could be in a great position to make some noise. Lock doesn’t have to be a superstar, he just needs to be at Kirk Cousins’ level. I think he can get somewhat close with another off-season.
Las Vegas Raiders: How Do They Get Over the Hump?
The first three years of the Jon Gruden tenure in Vegas have been… wild. Gruden essentially tore down everything when he came in, hired a network analyst in Mike Mayock (who I think has done a pretty good job), and rebuilt the team while the franchise relocated. Many have been critical of the work Gruden/Mayock have done, but considering how they started, I think they’re on an upward trajectory.
The next question for the Raiders is how do they get over the hump? This is the second straight year that Vegas was fully in the playoff hunt before melting down over the final few weeks. The obvious answer is improving the defense; Vegas’ defense was horrific this past season and while new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is a great hire, his schemes and coaching alone cannot be the only remedy. Clelin Ferrell needs to take a step forwards as do a lot of Vegas’ other players, but more importantly, the Raiders need to better hit on their defensive acquisitions. Cory Littleton was a bust this past off-season, they still can’t generate a consistent pass rush, and their secondary gets burnt at least twice a game. Vegas’ offense, which Gruden is responsible for, is more than good enough for them to be a contender in the AFC, but their defense? That’s what is holding them back. Drafting smarter is part of it, but they also need to allocate some money for upgrades as well.
Los Angeles Chargers: Hire the Right Coach
While Adam Gase or Matt Patricia probably earned the dubious title of being the worst head coach in the NFL last season, Anthony Lynn was not far behind. Every week Lynn made the same exact mistakes; he ran the ball with no timeouts under one minute left, took the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands when they had the lead, mismanaged the clock, and so much more. I think Lynn’s schemes are fine and I actually think in the right system, he’d be a good offensive coordinator, but he cannot be a good head coach.
The Chargers easily could’ve won 10 or 11 games last season and they’ll need to nail the head coaching hire here. Whoever L.A. opts for could decide how Justin Herbert develops and his career progression, making this a really essential move. My top choice? Brian Daboll, the current Buffalo Bills’ offensive coordinator. Daboll helped modernize Alabama’s offense and has done wonders for Josh Allen and Buffalo. He’s the architect behind the aggressive play-calling scheme and Allen’s ascension to MVP-status. Bring him to L.A. and the Chargers are a playoff team.
Dallas Cowboys: Getting the Dak Prescott Situation Fixed
Dak Prescott’s leg fracture was one of the most devastating and heartbreaking injuries we have seen in sports in general. Prescott, who was unable to come to a long-term agreement with the Cowboys prior to the season, is entering free agency again. Prescott has established himself as an elite NFL quarterback who the Cowboys would be foolish to move on from. Priority #1 this off-season has to be getting Prescott under a long-term contract. The Cowboys can maneuver some cap space to get a deal done, but it’s hard to find franchise-level guys. Prescott is certainly one of them and an ideal leader.
Alongside the Prescott contract, the Cowboys also have some decisions to make around Jaylon Smith and Ezekiel Elliott, two of their more expensive players. Neither are terribly productive anymore and Elliott appears to be the second best running back on the roster behind Tony Pollard. Dallas’ defense was a mess last season and I’m not sure hiring Dan Quinn drastically changes everything. It would be wise for the Cowboys to get Prescott locked up, upgrade the defense, and bolster their offensive line depth that’s been tested over the past few seasons.
New York Giants: Adding More Talent Around Daniel Jones & Saquon Barkley
The New York Giants were, in my opinion, the best team in the NFC East last season. Joe Judge did a tremendous job his first year in charge and New York’s defense was quietly a very good unit last season. On that end, the Giants clearly have two foundational pieces in James Bradberry and Blake Martinez and if Leonard Williams returns in free agency, there’ll be a lot of promise there. However, New York’s problem is their offense as it was far too often mediocre last year. I think it would behoove the Giants to bring in some quality competition for Daniel Jones, perhaps a veteran like Andy Dalton or Cam Newton, but I’m not sold that Jones is the long-term answer in New York.
Regardless of my thoughts on Jones, the Giants are likely out of range to draft a stud quarterback in Round 1. Plus, even though I am not sold on Jones long-term, the Giants still may be and have the financial assets to build a quality offense around Jones. New York could make a play for Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson, or the Giants could opt for a player like Jaylen Waddle in the 1st Round and add some cheaper receivers via free agency like Marvin Jones Jr. and Sammy Watkins. Regardless, New York has some upgrades to be made at the skill position and on the offensive line. It’s a big year upcoming for Daniel Jones and company.
Philadelphia Eagles: Determine a Direction/Vision
The Philadelphia Eagles are frankly a mess right now. While the team had a magical 2017-18 season, they’ve been going downhill quickly. Yes, the Eagles did make the postseason the prior two seasons, but both were on lucky circumstances and involved sneaking in at 9-7. This year, things unraveled in remarkable fashion and led to a 4-11-1 record. Now, the Eagles are looking for a new coach, have no quarterback vision, a general manager with a poor track record of identifying talent via the draft, and an aging roster that hasn’t been particularly good for the past few seasons.
Philadelphia’s coaching hire will be incredibly important this off-season. Philadelphia has had a penchant for hiring cutting-edge offensive minds and they’ve requested to interview Panthers’ Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, who certainly fits the bill. The Eagles have also been connected with Arthur Smith, Todd Bowles, and Robert Saleh as well. The hire will set a lot of things into motion including Carson Wentz’s future, draft selections, players to cut, and much more. I wouldn’t be surprised if Philadelphia tried to make a splash with this hire; maybe that means going after Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley (who coached Jalen Hurts). Don’t expect the Eagles to be complacent this off-season; they’ll be very aggressive.
Detroit Lions: Rebuild the Mess Matt Patricia Left
Detroit failed miserably with the move to hire Matt Patricia. The team regressed in every facet, the defense (supposedly Patricia’s calling card) was a disaster despite bringing in former Patriots’ players, and the players seemed to strongly dislike playing for Patricia. We’ve seen over and over again that coaches who bring the “Patriot Way” elsewhere usually fail and Patricia is another example. While Brian Flores and Joe Judge seem to be successful so far, both have the contagious “fight for your players” attitude that the teams seem to respond to. Patricia lacked that.
Now, whoever is the next Detroit Lions head coach will be inheriting an absolute mess. Matthew Stafford deserves better than sitting through another rebuild, so expect him to get shopped heavily, or play one more season before his contract becomes significantly easier to get off of. The Lions see their top two receivers, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., hit free agency and their offensive line is mediocre. Defensively, the majority of the roster is Patriots players who play a specific scheme; it’ll require a substantial roster overhaul for whatever coach installs his own scheme into Detroit. This job is arguably the worst on the market, but whoever takes it will have a shot at putting their own stamp on things. There needs to be greater synergy between the football and operations offices here. This is a tough, tough task.
Minnesota Vikings: Getting Tougher in the Trenches
Mike Zimmer seems fed up with the Minnesota Vikings; not only did Zimmer call this the worst defense he has ever coached, but there have been some rumblings the past few off-seasons that Zimmer could be available as a head coaching candidate to other teams. Remember, defensive coordinator George Edwards parted ways with the Vikings last off-season and while Minnesota had a multitude of injuries and key departures this past summer, their defense was horrific this year. Now, a healthy Danielle Hunter changes things, but the Vikings have to get tougher in the trenches. Their offensive line is shaky at best despite being good at run blocking, but their ability to generate a pass rush was nonexistent this season.
Now, General Manager Rick Spielman did a great job last year accumulating a ton of picks during the draft and overall, Minnesota did have a good draft. While Jeff Gladney struggled early on, he did flash some promise and alongside Cameron Dantzler, that’s a decent duo to have some hope in especially with Mike Hughes coming back. Justin Jefferson was the best rookie non-quarterback as well. If the Vikings bolster their line of scrimmage play on both sides of the ball, they could push for a playoff spot again next season.
Atlanta Falcons: When to Move on from Matt Ryan?
Matt Ryan has had a great run in Atlanta, but with the clock ticking on his career, it is a worthy question to wonder if this is it for Ryan in Atlanta. The Falcons have the 5th overall selection in the draft, likely in the range to select the quarterback remaining from the Zach Wilson/Justin Fields/Trevor Lawrence bunch. If so, Atlanta could look to deal Matt Ryan and get a ransom for him. No team ever wants to blow it up and from Atlanta’s standpoint, if they didn’t have an epic collapse in 3-4 games, they were a borderline playoff team. Still, this has been the narrative ever since they lost the Super Bowl; how many times to they need to relive the same story?
While Atlanta could blow it up, trade both Ryan and Julio Jones for a monumental amount of picks and rebuild fairly quickly, I fear they’ll run it back one more time. Maybe they’ll want to give it another shot with a new coach (or if Raheem Morris returns), or maybe Arthur Blank still believes the Falcons can win a Super Bowl with this roster. Whatever it is, I’d be surprised if Atlanta blows it up, although I’d recommend they do. Imagine the haul they could get for Ryan and Jones, especially considering the amount of teams needing a quarterback. Atlanta could theoretically get Justin Fields at #4 and have 12 more picks (example) in this year’s draft to build a capable roster. They’d still have Calvin Ridley as well. It’s interesting, if nothing else.
Carolina Panthers: Is Teddy Bridgewater Still the Guy?
Long-term, the answer to this question is no. Teddy Bridgewater proved himself as a serviceable starting quarterback this year, but from what we’ve seen, I’m not sure anybody is sold on him being much more than that. He’s a solid player, but is he Super Bowl-caliber? Definitely not. With that being said, he’s under contract for two more seasons at $40 million and the Panthers pick #7 in the draft, which may be slightly outside the ideal zone to get a quarterback. If Fields or Wilson is there, you grab them, but what if all three are gone. Do you grab Trey Lance? Or, bring Bridgewater back for one more year?
The Teddy Bridgewater dilemma in Carolina is so intriguing, but how about the possibility of trading him? We know there’ll be a surplus of teams looking for a quarterback compared to quality QBs available and Bridgewater’s contract is very reasonable. Could Bill Belichick and New England make a play for him? What about the Chicago Bears? Would Ron Rivera be interested in bringing Bridgewater to D.C.? I think there’d certainly be a market for Bridgewater, albeit a cooler one. The Panthers have a lot of different routes they could go here, but this decision will be huge.
Arizona Cardinals: What is Missing?
Let me say this about Arizona: as someone who was incredibly skeptical of Kliff Kingsbury’s hiring, I think this season validated my concerns. While Kingsbury worked with some elite quarterbacks at the collegiate level, his teams always underperformed and were horrible defensively. This spree NFL teams went on a few off-seasons in a row looking for the next Sean McVay was reckless; they ended up hiring coaches who, while cutting-edge offensively, were not qualified to be running a show. The Arizona Cardinals are a team that employs the second most dynamic quarterback in Kyler Murray, arguably the best wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, a talented crop of secondary skill players like Kenyan Drake, Christian Kirk, the GOAT Larry Fitzgerald, and Chase Edmonds, yet averaged 25.6 PPG, good for 14th in the NFL! Shouldn’t that be much higher? Arizona ranked 14th in yards per play as well and has had red-zone struggles in both of Kingsbury’s years. Something is missing with this Cardinals team.
Entering the 2021-22 season, Kingsbury certainly has to be on the hot seat. He was brought in because of his offensive prowess, yet Arizona’s offense has been mediocre despite a wealth of talent. The Cardinals need to improve defensively but considering Patrick Peterson’s aging and they don’t have a lot of impact players in the front seven outside of Chandler Jones, it’s tough to see where the internal improvement comes from. Maybe Isaiah Simmons becomes a superstar this year, but Budda Baker/Jones can’t do it all themselves. Arizona needs to get better defensively, add another weapon offensively, and possibly add some offensive line help too. It’s a make-or-break year from a team who narrowly missed the postseason. Cardinals fans are probably more bullish on their future than I am, but Kingsbury’s performance so far has been incredibly underwhelming.
San Francisco 49ers: What to Do With Jimmy Garoppolo?
The San Francisco 49ers have an important decision upcoming with Jimmy Garoppolo. The Niners can get off Jimmy G’s contract with basically no dead cap when the official new league year starts and if San Francisco thinks he’s not the guy, it would make some sense to do that. As a whole, Garoppolo has been underwhelming with Kyle Shanahan, but his 22-8 record as the starting quarterback is undoubtedly impressive. There is sure to be ample quarterback movement this off-season, meaning San Francisco could be in play for a new signal-caller as well.
The 49ers could opt to land a cheaper quarterback and spend some of the extra money retaining some secondary players (Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett) or go all-in trading for a veteran who could elevate them again to Super Bowl contender. It’s no sure thing the Niners would move on from Garoppolo either, but a lot of wheels will be in motion once the Garoppolo decision has been made.
Off-Season Storylines: Eliminated Playoff Teams
Indianapolis Colts: Plugging Some Holes to Take the Next Step
The Indianapolis Colts were a very good football team in the 2020-21 season, but they ran into a buzz saw, aka the Buffalo Bills. It remains to be seen whether Philip Rivers returns next season, but regardless, the Colts’ quarterback situation is likely to be stable. Indianapolis’ connection to Carson Wentz has been one we’ve documented ever since the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts and while the firing of Doug Pederson makes it less likely that Wentz is wearing a different uniform come next fall, the Colts will likely be fine under center.
The bigger question in my mind for the Colts is how they elevate themselves from a very good team to a Super Bowl contender. Some of that could be solved by upgrading from Philip Rivers, but Rivers quietly had a very nice season. Indianapolis could work to improve the offensive line a bit (especially with Anthony Castonzo’s retirement), they could use another pass catching option, and their defense needs some more playmakers after they stumbled down the stretch.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Revamp the Offense
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense was an absolute mess this year and frankly, held the entire team back. The team’s vanilla scheme revolved around drags, rub routes, slants, and screens, combined with a determination to fix an ineffective run game, really tanked the entire group. The Steelers defense will likely remain elite, but they have a long way to go to fix an offense that was one of the worst in the NFL last season.
Randy Fichtner is officially out as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator and the next hire will be incredibly important. Pittsburgh has to be more innovative and while Ben Roethlisberger’s deteriorating physical capabilities do place some limitations on the offense, the Steelers still need to show some ability to throw 15-20 yards down the field, mix in play action, and add some more motion to the offense. Todd Monken would make some sense here as would candidates such as Duce Staley, Jay Gruden, Darrell Bevell, and Dirk Koetter (if not retained by Atlanta). It appears likely Big Ben will return for one more season, but the Steelers still need to plan out a succession strategy and upgrade the offensive line. Lots of work needs to be done offensively for Pittsburgh to be a legitimate Super Bowl threat.
Tennessee Titans: Fix the Defense
Mike Vrabel came into Tennessee with a strong defensive background and while the Titans’ defense has been good most years under Vrabel, they were atrocious this season. To be frank, the Titans have gotten fairly lucky the past two seasons to have as good of a record as they did and it remains to be seen how long they can keep this streak going. While Vrabel is an excellent leader and terrific with game management, the defensive play has been incredibly underwhelming. Tennessee’s cap situation is ok; they don’t have a ton of money to spend after the Derrick Henry contract, but they’ll need to improve the defense.
The biggest upgrades the Titans have to make is along the defensive line as the team was unable to consistently rush the passer this past season. Adding an edge rusher (or two) would be very important for this team. Additionally, while the Titans have some notable names in the secondary, they need better performances on that end. Malcolm Butler is fine, but the Titans have nobody to bookend him with. Desmond King II and Kevin Byard are two very good players as well and Kenny Vaccaro is solid too, but the Titans need better production, a lot of which starts by relieving the pressure on the secondary by upgrading their pass rush and front seven. Expect Tennessee to get aggressive to do that.
Chicago Bears: Resolve the Quarterback Situation
It didn’t seem like many Chicago Bears’ fans were happy with the decision to bring Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace back for next season, but when your team is coming off a playoff berth, it would’ve been hard to let those guys go. Still, I personally would’ve been favor of a reset in Chicago. It’s clear this Bears team isn’t going anywhere fast. While their defense is loaded with talent, they have issues tackling and a lot of their higher-priced players simply weren’t terribly productive this season. The defense has declined ever since Vic Fangio left and I’m not sure it’s a coincidence. Additionally, Matt Nagy was hired because of his offensive acumen, yet Chicago’s offense has been mediocre/below average for the majority of his tenure.
The Bears are a team stuck in the mud and while everyone loves to mock them over the Mitchell Trubisky trade/selection, a variety of other moves have been consequential in their struggles. The Bears’ decision to trade for Nick Foles last off-season didn’t make sense and he’s still under contract for two more seasons while Trubisky is a free agent. If Deshaun Watson were truly available, it seems the Bears would be a favorite to get him with Miami. However, Chicago’s package would probably be less appealing than Miami’s plus Watson has a no trade clause; he showed some shade towards the Bears for passing on him, so I think it’s fair to wonder whether he’d waive that to join Chicago. Expect Pace and Nagy to get a little desperate this off-season; they know they’re on the hot seat and I wouldn’t be surprised if they got a little reckless trying to save their jobs.
Seattle Seahawks: Fix the Offense
The Seattle Seahawks are another team looking for a new offensive coordinator as Brian Schottenheimer was fired the other day. Seattle’s offense was absolutely electric to start the year before faltering big time down the stretch. Pete Carroll cited a philosophical difference and then emphasized how he wants to run the ball more efficiently. Yikes. For a team that has Russell Wilson, who is arguably the best deep-ball passer in the NFL, I’m not sure the answer to the offensive problems is “running the ball”.
Seattle has a lot of work to do, particularly diagnosing the problems that plagued them this season. Their defense is thoroughly uninspiring in terms of personnel, but their offensive collapse was particularly discouraging. The Seahawks still need to improve their offensive line and possibly add another pass-catcher (or two), but they need to figure out how to beat two-high safeties, a coverage scheme that really torpedoed Seattle’s offense at times. Wilson’s disdain for checkdown throws or quick hitters is a problem in of itself, but Seattle’s scheme needs to be substantially better. Hiring Pep Hamilton, who has offensive coordinator experience and was Justin Herbert’s quarterback coach this past season, could be a good start.
Washington Football Team: Find a Quarterback
The Washington Football Team was the feel good story of the NFL season. Ron Rivera and Alex Smith each have incredibly inspirational stories and despite the roster being overmatched every week (and shuffling through multiple quarterbacks), the WFT reached the postseason in Rivera’s first season. The Football Team was incredibly lucky, but they shouldn’t apologize for making the postseason.
Entering next year the most important thing is to find a quarterback. By making the postseason and subsequently landing the 19th overall pick, they’re likely out of the range for the top four quarterbacks, but Kyle Trask or Mac Jones is likely to be available. Washington could also opt for a free agent addition or run it back with Taylor Heinicke, who performed admirably in the postseason against a good Buccaneers defense. Washington’s culture has clearly changed for the better with Rivera, they have a fantastic defensive front and a great offensive duo with Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. With the right quarterback, this team could actually be quite good, but that is easier said than done.
Keep an Eye on the Quarterback Carousel
As mentioned repeatedly throughout our article so far, expect there to be heavy movement on the quarterback front this off-season. The quarterback position is easily the most important in the NFL and finding the right guy is imperative to team success. This year, we’ve seen that reinforced over and over again. Take a look at the remaining postseason teams and their quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. While neither Mayfield nor Goff are elite guys, Mayfield has been sensational down the stretch and has one of the best coaching staffs behind him, while Goff has a top-5 defense and a great array of skill players. You need a good quarterback to go deep in the postseason. Only very rarely are there exceptions to that rule and when the exceptions exist, it’s likely because the rest of the roster is beyond elite.
Here, we’ll break teams into tiers of how desperate they will be in finding/looking for a new quarterback and show just how vast this year’s search could be:
Definitely Looking
Chicago Bears: We know the Chicago Bears will be on the lookout for a new quarterback with Mitch Trubisky hitting free agency. While Nick Foles is under contract for two more seasons, was his play convincing enough to think he’s the answer? Absolutely not; sure Foles won a lot of games, but wins are not a quarterback stat. Foles was inaccurate, his arm strength was shaky, and while Matt Nagy’s conservative play-calling set the team back at times, having the right quarterback could expand the offense.
Potential Solutions: Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Ryan
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jacksonville Jaguars were a team who went through three different quarterbacks last season and unfortunately, none seem like the long-term answer. Jacksonville’s solution is easy since they own the #1 overall pick: draft Trevor Lawrence. That’s a near certainty it’ll happen even if Urban Meyer gets hired. Many are eager to see “Justin Fields to Jacksonville”, but Fields never played for Urban Meyer nor did he commit to Ohio State while Meyer was the coach. Fields transferred from Georgia after Meyer retired to play for Ryan Day; there is a connection simply because Meyer has surely still been in contact with Day and Ohio State, but I doubt either guy has a high level of comfort with each other. Gardner Minshew II would immediately slot into being one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league next season, but the Jaguars could explore trade possibilities for him as well.
Potential Solutions: Trevor Lawrence
Kansas City Chiefs: Just kidding
New England Patriots: While not yet official, there have been reports that while both New England and Cam Newton enjoyed their partnership this year, it won’t be continuing in the future. Personally, I think it makes sense for both sides. The Patriots are an older team and should start turning the page for the future, especially since they’re cap-strapped and, despite Belichick’s brilliance, are unlikely to compete next season. From Newton’s standpoint, his arm simply isn’t what it was and while he still shows glimpses of being a dynamic playmaker, he’s on the downhill of his career. Newton should be looking for a team with an abundance of skill players to help cover some of his flaws. With that said, I think New England’s quarterback situation is fascinating; they could go in so many directions here with a reclamation project like Jameis Winston, or a Day 2 rookie like Jamie Newman. One name I’d keep an eye on here? Jimmy Garoppolo; if San Francisco moves on, it makes perfect sense for New England to reunite with the player many considered the heir to Tom Brady.
Potential Solutions: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jameis Winston, Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz
Washington Football Team: Unless it is truly Taylor Heinicke szn in Washington, it’s very very likely that the WFT will be on the lookout for a new quarterback. As mentioned, their draft position complicates this a bit, but the Football Team could use some draft capital to bring in an experienced veteran. Alex Smith had an inspirational comeback and performed admirably all year, but he may be leaning towards retirement. If Washington could find even a minor upgrade from Smith, considering their defense, they’ll be in decent shape. The team should aim much higher and they need a guy for the future; I wouldn’t be stunned if they tried to make a splash.
Potential Solutions: Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance
Very Likely Looking, But Not 100%
Carolina Panthers: As mentioned in our writeup, the Carolina Panthers do still have Teddy Bridgewater under contract for two more seasons. Despite that commitment, it does seem like Carolina will be looking for their future guy this off-season; their roster is still quite young and Bridgewater is not the difference-maker to elevate this roster. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carolina shopped him, but ultimately, I think Carolina will select a quarterback at #7 in the draft and let them sit a year behind Bridgewater. Personally, I’m not the biggest proponent of sitting quarterbacks, but this is my guess for Carolina. If Carolina doesn’t take a quarterback at #7, I’d be surprised if they made a substantial change, which is why they’re in this category.
Potential Solutions: Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Kyle Trask
New York Jets: There are some rumblings (or at least suggestions) that the Jets should use all their draft capital to try and build a dominant team around Sam Darnold and give him another shot to figure it out. Personally, I’d be much more inclined to grab Zach Wilson or Justin Fields, but New York could go a different route, indicating their placement here. We’ll know New York’s direction very early, as if they opt against a quarterback at #2, they’re likely rolling with Darnold for another year. Regardless, they’re likely to bring in some competition one way or another.
Potential Solutions: Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Mitch Trubisky, Andy Dalton
San Francisco 49ers: The San Francisco 49ers are here not because Jimmy Garoppolo is a bad quarterback, but because it makes a lot of sense for San Francisco to move on due to the cap commitment and lack of dead money associated with his deal. San Francisco’s defense remains strong and they could opt for a cheaper player who is just as good as Jimmy G. While that seems likely, I would toss out this scenario: how about Matt Ryan in the Bay Area? Ryan was a MVP with Kyle Shanahan as the offensive coordinator and the fit makes perfect sense. If not Ryan, I think the 49ers may pursue a Carson Wentz or Matthew Stafford deal while being active for someone like Jameis Winston as well. Lots of possibilities here. Deshaun Watson is also an obvious name but I think Miami is the logical destination for him.
Potential Solutions: Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford
It’s Complicated
Dallas Cowboys: If everything goes right for the Dallas Cowboys, they won’t need to worry about the quarterback position. In a perfect world, Dak Prescott signs a long-term deal, the Cowboys bring back Andy Dalton as the backup, and everything is great as the Cowboys win the NFC East. However, the negotiations with Dak were a bit messy last year and perhaps Prescott’s leg injury complicates things. Reports were that the Cowboys would tag Prescott again if a long-term deal couldn’t be reached, but my guess is that both sides will aim to avoid that. Still, without a quarterback secured on the roster, this is a weird situation.
Denver Broncos: From history, we know that John Elway and the Broncos are never content at the quarterback position. While Elway isn’t in charge anymore, I doubt that philosophy has changed. Remember, Denver aggressively pursued Peyton Manning after he left Indianapolis and they’ve made moves to upgrade consistently, including moving on from Tim Tebow. This really comes down to whether or not the Broncos believe in Drew Lock. I’ve argued for giving him one more year; giving up on players too quick is a fallacy we often see. However, what if Matthew Stafford became available? Wouldn’t he be good enough to get the Broncos a playoff berth? Denver is likely to be an opportunistic team; if a star comes around, they’ll be in play. If not, they’re unlikely to draft a rookie to usurp Lock. Denver will almost certainly bring in competition; Andy Dalton would make a lot of sense as would Cam Newton, but finding someone to completely overtake Lock? I’d be surprised if Denver did so, unless it was Stafford, Matt Ryan, or Deshaun Watson.
Miami Dolphins: The Miami Dolphins’ quarterback situation has quietly become a little complicated as of late. Reports were that players didn’t have confidence in Tua Tagovailoa, which coincided with rumblings that Deshaun Watson would be open to a trade to Miami. This seems to be a lot of smoke here and when there’s a lot of smoke, there’s usually fire. I’m still a believer in Tua, but considering how much better the offense looked with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, there’s certainly some second-guessing going on here. Overall, this situation looks to be either Tua or Deshaun Watson, but it’s not crystal clear. Keep an eye on this one.
New Orleans Saints: With recent reports indicating that Drew Brees is likely to retire after this season, that opens up New Orleans’ starting quarterback job. Jack-of-all-trades Taysom Hill filled in admirably for Brees during his rib injury, but there seems to be hesitancy anointing him as Brees’ successor, likely due to Hill’s unorthodox style. I think Hill is the obvious choice and thought he played fairly well in relief, but that doesn’t seem to be the consensus option. While the Saints could bring back Jameis Winston and use him in the Drew Brees role while Hill sees expanded playing time, I think that’s unlikely as well considering Sean Payton opted to start Hill over Winston. This situation becomes very murky but one name I’d watch? Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was terrific in relief of Brees, he knows the system well, his teammates love him, and his contract is fairly reasonable for the cap-strung Saints. He’s a darkhorse option.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback situation likely hinges upon who the next head coach is. While Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz’s relationship appeared to erode beyond repair, that animosity is gone with a new guy in charge. It’ll be interesting to see what direction Philly goes, but one thing I would recommend is not keeping both Wentz and Jalen Hurts on the roster next season. From Wentz’s standpoint, it didn’t seem like he responded well to Hurts’ selection, while having Wentz on the roster as an expensive backup makes no sense. Luckily for the Eagles, their solution is already in-house, but neither option is particularly appealing. Wentz was arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL this past season and while Hurts was very impressive, most of his big plays came with his legs and were against the Arizona Cardinals, a team that is not known for its defense. This decision is arguably the biggest any team has to make this off-season.
Retirement-Contingent
Indianapolis Colts: If Philip Rivers retires, the Colts will need a quarterback. I wouldn’t be surprised if Frank Reich and company opt for Wentz over Rivers regardless, but Rivers was good for Indianapolis while Wentz is a bigger risk (and a bigger commitment). The Colts will be good regardless, but they’ll have some questions to answer dependent on Rivers’ future.
Pittsburgh Steelers: If Ben Roethlisberger wants to play, there’ll be a spot for him in Pittsburgh. However, we’ve heard Big Ben constantly talk about the beating his body takes every week and he’s shown a decline in arm strength. Would their disappointing end convince him to hang them up? Personally, I’d be stunned if Roethlisberger retired this off-season, as this Steelers’ roster is close to being very good. With a new offensive coordinator coming, I think Big Ben will return for at least one more season to get the bad taste of the loss to the Browns out of his mouth.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This one is highly unlikely, especially since reports have already come out and said that Tom Brady plans on returning to Tampa Bay next season. He’s under contract for another year as well, but whenever a quarterback gets up in age, it’s worth mentioning the possibility.
Depends on the New Coach’s Direction
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan’s future in Atlanta is, in my opinion, murky. While the Falcons could select a quarterback at #4 and sit him for a year behind Matt Ryan, they could also select a quarterback and subsequently trade Ryan for a massive haul. As mentioned, the San Francisco 49ers are a terrific fit. I’d put odds on Ryan remaining the Falcons’ quarterback entering the season at 80%, but 20% means a 1/5 chance he isn’t. Don’t be shocked if Ryan isn’t in Atlanta.
Detroit Lions: While Ryan’s situation is murky, Matthew Stafford’s future with Detroit seems a bit clearer. It appears the Lions will start what should be a long rebuild and my guess is Stafford likely won’t be a part of it. I’d put Stafford’s odds on remaining in Detroit around 50%, primarily because no team wants to part ways with a highly-productive franchise guy who they’ve been loyal to. However, suitors will come calling and as evident above, there are a lot of teams looking for a quarterback this year. New England would be an interesting spot, as would Denver, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh if Big Ben retires.
Highly Unlikely, But Never Say Never
Las Vegas Raiders: This is the second straight year where the Las Vegas Raiders have fizzled out and I think we’ll see ample changes this off-season. Ever since Jon Gruden got the job there have been rumblings about Derek Carr’s future and while Carr has been terrific since Gruden took over, despite having a worse group of pass-catchers (although Darren Waller has been fantastic), I still always feel like Gruden is waiting to strike for “his guy”. Maybe that’s Jameis Winston, or maybe it’s Matthew Stafford. I would be shocked if the Raiders did move on from Carr, but it’s Jon Gruden, would you put anything past him?
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff’s contract makes him nearly impossible to move, but his play this year was incredibly inconsistent. With so many teams needing a quarterback, would one be willing to bite on his contract? If so, I don’t think it’s crazy that the Rams could move on; Sean McVay has stressed repeatedly that Goff’s turnovers have hurt the team and the Rams started John Wolford last weekend despite Goff being ready to go, albeit limited. The Rams showed last off-season they aren’t afraid to eat a lot of money if it meant upgrading their roster.
New York Giants: Is Daniel Jones the guy in New York? As of now, it sure seems like it, although I’m not sure you’d find anyone who would wholeheartedly say he’s absolutely the franchise quarterback. Jones deserves another year; after all, this will be just his second full season as the starter and first off-season with head coach and offensive coordinator continuity. But, the clock is ticking on his future in New York.
What Coaches Should Teams be Hiring?
In this section, both Jon and I will be having a coach “draft”. Essentially, we each listed the head coaching vacancies from most appealing to least appealing (in our opinion) and selected which coach we think each team should hire. We kept our opinions clear of actual reports; as you could see, while the Jaguars seem very likely to hire Urban Meyer, neither of us actually recommended they do hire Meyer. We’ve also included some key coordinator selections as well.
Matt’s Picks
Los Angeles Chargers: Brian Daboll (Bills Offensive Coordinator)
Jacksonville Jaguars: Eric Bienemy (Chiefs Offensive Coordinator)
New York Jets: Doug Pederson (Former Eagles Head Coach)
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (Falcons Interim Head Coach)
Philadelphia Eagles: Don “Wink” Martindale (Ravens Defensive Coordinator)
Houston Texans: Brandon Staley (Rams Defensive Coordinator)
Detroit Lions: Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern Head Coach)
Seattle Seahawks Offensive Coordinator: Pep Hamilton (Former Chargers QB Coach)
Pittsburgh Steelers Offensive Coordinator: Mike McDaniel (49ers Run Game Coordinator)
Miami Dolphins Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monken (Georgia Offensive Coordinator)
Chicago Bears Defensive Coordinator: John Pagano (Broncos OLB Coach)
Jon’s Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars: Joe Brady (Panthers Offensive Coordinator)
Los Angeles Chargers: Brian Daboll (Bills Offensive Coordinator)
New York Jets: Doug Pederson (Former Eagles Head Coach)
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Eberflus (Colts Defensive Coordinator)
Houston Texans: Eric Bienemy (Chiefs Offensive Coordinator)
Philadelphia Eagles: Brandon Staley (Rams Defensive Coordinator)
Detroit Lions: Robert Saleh (49ers Defensive Coordinator)
Seattle Seahawks Offensive Coordinator: Dave Canales (Seahawks Passing Game Coordinator)
Pittsburgh Steelers Offensive Coordinator: Matt Canada (Steelers QB Coach)
Miami Dolphins Offensive Coordinator: George Godsey (Dolphins Tight Ends Coach)
Chicago Bears Defensive Coordinator: Raheem Morris (Falcons Interim Head Coach)
The Chirp 