The first ever Super Wild Card Weekend is officially here, and of course, we have you covered at The Chirp. We’ll dive into each Saturday Wild Card game, highlighting some key storylines and stats to watch. In what should be one of the most exciting weekends of the year, we are incredibly pumped to be able to deliver some insightful content on the games.
Super Wild Card Weekend may quickly become the best four words in sports. With the extra postseason team being introduced this year, getting gifted with an extra Wild Card game each day is wonderful for fans. Some opponents of this may argue that the 8-8 Chicago Bears are not worthy of a postseason appearance, but the policy worked well for the AFC. In fact, one could argue the postseason structure still needs further tweaks, as the 10-6 Miami Dolphins won’t be in the playoffs, yet the 7-9 Washington Football Team, 8-8 Chicago Bears, and 9-7 Los Angeles Rams are. It’s how the current system works and even with the tweaks, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see further innovation in structure in the future. However, the current system is set and we’re here to prepare you for the first ever Super Wild Card Weekend. Let’s get it.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills will be playing in their first home playoff game since 1996 on Saturday and let me say, the Bills are red hot. Excluding Week 17 (which we purposefully omitted due to teams resting starters), our metric illustrates that the Buffalo Bills were the 3rd best team in the NFL this season (when adjusted for strength of schedule) and the 2nd best from Weeks 11-16 when adjusting for strength of schedule. A major reason why the Bills have been so dominant this year is because of the growth we have witnessed from quarterback Josh Allen. Allen has always had immense potential due to his physical capabilities, but he’s always been hampered by his accuracy. Last year, Allen was the least accurate quarterback on deep passes. This season? Allen ranks 4th in the NFL in completion percentage and has completed 44.9% of his deep passes this season, good for 9th in the NFL. Allen’s massive jump is in part due to his improvements in his throwing motion and fundamentals, but the acquisition of Stefon Diggs was incredibly important and another great example of the work General Manager Brandon Beane has done in Buffalo. According to Pro Football Focus, Diggs was tied for 2nd in the NFL last season in catches on throws 20+ yards down field. Diggs led the NFL in receiving yards this season and has been on a tear as of late. The Colts’ defense has been really good all year long, but their weakness resides in the secondary, where they have some shaky moments. While the scoring defense has been good for Indianapolis, take a look at some of the numbers they have allowed to noteworthy offenses:
- Aaron Rodgers (11/22): 27/38, 311 yards, 3 TDs, INT
- Ryan Tannehill (11/29): 13/22, 221 yards, TD (TEN scored 45 points)
- Deshaun Watson (12/6): 26/38, 341 yards, INT
- Derek Carr (12/13): 31/45, 316 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
- Deshaun Watson (12/20): 33/41, 373 yards, 2 TDs
- Ben Roethlisberger (12/27): 34/49, 341 yards, 3 TDs
Not only do the raw numbers back up assertion that Indianapolis struggles against top-tier passing offenses (all the above qualify except Pittsburgh, where Roethlisberger’s numbers are inflated out of second-half necessity), but the analytics do as well. According to Sharp Football Statistics, the Colts’ defense has ranked 21st in passing rate success, but over the week span as listed above (Weeks 11-16 aka the “trending weeks” our metric also utilizes), the Colts ranked 29th, and 25th against explosive pass play success. Buffalo’s passing offense, by contrast, has ranked #1 in pass play success for the entire year and throughout Weeks 11-16. This seems to be a major mismatch here. The chess match between Buffalo’s offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and Indianapolis’ defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus should be a great one; both are amongst the best coordinators in football and at least one should be a head coach next year.
From Indianapolis’ perspective, their success hinges on the legs of stud rookie Jonathan Taylor. As a Wisconsin fan, I can vouch for Taylor’s dominance and skill, but it took Indianapolis forever to finally unleash him. We all know that running the ball in general is less efficient then throwing, but that does not necessarily apply equally among all teams. The Colts have improved drastically over our “trending” period running the ball, ranking 10th in rushing success in that span and 2nd in explosive rushing according to Sharp Football Stats. With an elite offensive line to create holes for Taylor, it’s easy to see why they have had such success.
If the Colts want to win, jumping out to an early lead and leaning on the ground is the way to go. Buffalo’s defense has dramatically improved throughout the year, namely due to Matt Milano’s return and the improved play from the front seven. The Bills’ defense was fairly poor the first half of the season, but ever since they made some plays against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, they have been on a tear. Frankly, for as good as Buffalo’s offense is, their defensive improvement has been a major catalyst in their late-season dominance. However, during the year, their biggest weakness was their run defense. While it has dramatically improved over the “trending” period, Buffalo’s defense hasn’t really been tested. Here’s a look at their opponents’ season long rushing success rate from Weeks 12-16 (they had a bye during Week 11):
- Week 12: Los Angeles Chargers (28th)
- Week 13: San Francisco 49ers (22nd)
- Week 14: Pittsburgh Steelers (32nd)
- Week 15: Denver Broncos (31st)
- Week 16: New England Patriots (9th)
Frankly, Buffalo’s rush defense hasn’t faced a substantial test in a while. New England’s rushing attack is good and they averaged 6.0 YPC in that game, it’s just Buffalo’s offense blitzed them that they were unable to play their style and heavily commit to the run. For Indianapolis’ case, that will be the key; contain Buffalo early and allow Jonathan Taylor to run. This may be a problem, however: the Colts rank 24th in first quarter defense, allowing 5.4 PPG, while Buffalo has the best first quarter defense in football. The Colts have, traditionally, been a much stingier team in the second half, so keeping it close in the first half is the key. Philip Rivers has been solid this season, but if he has to win a shootout with Josh Allen, it’ll be a quick postseason trip for the Colts.
I’ll refrain from making predictions in here (we have predictions in our podcast and on twitter: @TheChirpSports), but I will tease one: I expect Buffalo to notch their first postseason win since 1995.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
As someone who was proudly on the Rams’ train this season, it’s been a bit surprising to me to see how quickly things have turned south for them. Ever since their embarrassing performance to the Jets, L.A. has been unable to garner any momentum. Now, with Jared Goff unlikely to play and some other uncertainty on offense (is Cooper Kupp healthy after coming off the COVID list? How is Cam Akers’ ankle?), it’s tough to fully be a believer in the Rams. However, the Seahawks have been thoroughly uninspiring as well recently, despite Russell Wilson’s blistering start to the season. No longer are the Seahawks throwing deep as often, but rather, they are retreating to their conservative style that artificially holds back their electric offense. I feel fairly confident in saying this will be an ugly game.
With this game, the interesting thing is we already have some evidence among how this battle might go since these two teams split their season series. While the turnover battle is always important, it’ll be even more emphasized in this game, as both teams have struggled with inopportune giveaways this season. One uncharacteristic thing we have seen from Russell Wilson this season is his carelessness in the red zone; Wilson is tied for the league lead with three red zone INTs and one of them came against the Rams earlier in the year. The Rams have also struggled with turnovers consistently throughout the year as well. During the game which the Rams won, they also won the turnover battle 3-1. In the game which Seattle won, the Seahawks won the turnover battle 1-0. While we know teams who win the turnover battle generally win the game as well, for two offenses that have struggled to generate any traction as of late, holding on to the ball adds more importance here.
Offensively, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Seahawks are tied for the 4th highest frequency of plays coming from 12 personnel, with 2 TEs, 2 WRs, and 1 RB. The Seahawks have been really successful in running plays from this set, while experiencing significantly less success in 11 personnel, specifically through the air. This is one specific area to watch for a few reasons. First, inefficient offense is bad offense and the Seahawks have simply not been as successful operating from 11 personnel this season. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the Rams have been an elite defense against 11 personnel sets; they are allowing the 6th lowest play success rate from that personnel, but have been more average against 12 personnel. The Seahawks certainly can exploit that a bit more in this game. Surprisingly, Seattle’s rushing attack has been fairly effective this season, as they have actually been the #1 team in terms of rushing play success. The Rams have a good defenses versus the run, but in their two games against the Seahawks this year, have allowed 5.1 YPC and 4.0 YPC respectively. The showing a few weeks ago was encouraging from the Rams, but Seattle, particularly Russell Wilson, was able to create plays on the ground in their earlier matchup. Considering Seattle’s relative tentativeness as of late (their rushing play percentage is noticeably higher as of recent weeks), seeing how effective Chris Carson is will be a storyline to monitor.
On the flip side, if John Wolford starts for the Rams, it will surely be an uphill battle. While the Rams’ defense is more than good enough to steal a game (especially since Seattle’s offense has been rather poor as of late), I wouldn’t feel terribly confident in that prediction. After Wolford’s interception (on his first career pass), the Rams actually moved the ball ok, but that was against a bad Arizona defense. Seattle’s defense doesn’t fear me, but as of late, they have been much improved. Still, the Seahawks don’t generate much quarterback pressure and outside of Jamal Adams, the team has just 36.5 sacks on the year, a number which would rank around league average. Adams is a clear difference-maker for Seattle and I anticipate him living around the line of scrimmage on Saturday. The Rams have had success running the ball against the Seahawks this year, but how will they be able to establish it? Wolford’s mobility was impressive last week and Seattle may struggle in preparing for additional zone reads, but I don’t think it was a coincidence that the Rams’ running backs struggled to the tune of 24 carries for 54 yards a week ago.
Overall, this game very well may come down to whichever club comes up with an opportune turnover. In that case, it’s very hard not to put more faith in Russell Wilson than John Wolford, although L.A.’s defense is significantly better than Seattle’s in my opinion. The Seahawks have shown in year’s past that they are incapable of playing a normal game and they are incapable of blowing out their opponent, so I am expecting a fairly close, albeit ugly game here. The thing is, Seattle has been exceptionally good in one-possession games as of late, partially due to luck, but also because Russell Wilson is still a scary good NFL quarterback. Seattle is 8-3 in one-possession games this season and despite home-field advantage not being as impactful this year, I think the Seahawks have a huge advantage with their stadium and the comfort of being at home. The Seahawks are 7-1 at home this year and have outscored opponents by 73 points there this season. They’ll be tough to beat in Seattle even without fans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team
Tom Brady wearing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform in the postseason just seems wrong on so many levels. Not only because Brady still looks a bit weird in a uniform other than the New England Patriots’, but also because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t been to the playoffs since 2007. For all the talk about Buffalo and Cleveland breaking streaks, the Buccaneers broke a pretty remarkable streak of their own. This is a team that has had just two winning seasons the past decade and outside of their Super Bowl in 2002, the franchise as a whole has struggled. Tampa Bay has the easiest Wild Card Weekend matchup, but the Washington Football Team could cause the Buccaneers some problems, even if Taylor Heinicke starts.
Tampa Bay is a team that has really caught fire over recent weeks. Since their bye week, Tampa Bay has gone 4-0 while averaging 37 PPG. While Tampa Bay’s schedule was fairly easy, the team has clearly started to click offensively. We always knew it would take a while for the Buccaneers to get going simply because they were working in a new quarterback with a limited off-season, but it appears the team is getting hot at the right time. Since the bye week, while Byron Leftwich has still been a bit stuck in going run-heavy on first down, the team saw a notable shift towards throwing the ball on first down ever since their second half comeback against Atlanta. Over the past two weeks, Tampa Bay has thrown the ball 55% of the time on first down with 8-10 yards to go, a major increase over their season long 49% mark. Tampa Bay’s first down success rate took a major step forwards as well, as they had a 58% successful play rate on first downs with 8-10 yards to go, compared to just 46% for the season. This should provide some greater evidence to Leftwich that throwing the ball and being aggressive more often.
The Washington Football Team’s defense has been really good all season long with a lot of attention paid to their front four, particularly stud rookie Chase Young. Washington ranks 6th in sacks and 7th in pressure rate and we have seen in past years the formula to beat Tom Brady is to be able to generate pressure with your front four. I think Washington’s defensive line could wreak havoc in this game, but let’s remember: Tampa Bay’s offensive line has been solid this year. Left tackle Donovan Smith is inconsistent, but rookie Tristan Wirfs has already established himself as one of the best linemen in football and the Bucs have two fellow standouts inside with Ryan Jensen and Ali Marpet. Seeing who wins the battle of the trenches will be a major determinant if Washington can keep this one close. Mike Evans seems likely to play tonight, but he’s likely closer to 70-80%. Antonio Brown and Brady have gotten some chemistry recently and I expect we’ll see a big showing from AB.
I have railed against how bad the NFC East is all year and the Washington Football Team has been downright horrible this year. According to our metric, Washington has been the worst team in the NFL; yes, even worse than Jacksonville or New York. The WFT consistently falls behind by two possessions and, with a lucky turnover, sneaks right back in the game. Tom Brady has uncharacteristically had a decent amount of interceptions this year, but that was more a byproduct off the new system which focuses more on vertical passes. Washington will need to play their best game of the year to win here and they’ll rely heavily on their defense. However, Washington’s defense has been a little suspect against good offenses this year. Washington hasn’t played a good offense in months, but earlier this year, they allowed 30+ points to Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Los Angeles. The Football Team’s defense has certainly improved, but how good are they against an elite offense?
Simply put, I think a lot of this game comes down to if the Washington Football Team’s defense can be good enough not only to shut down Tampa Bay’s red-hot offense, but also to make multiple game-changing plays to set their offense up in opportune positions. Tampa Bay’s defense is elite in their own right and while they’ll be without stud linebacker Devin White, their defense still has the personnel to cause serious headaches for Washington regardless of who starts at quarterback. Anything can happen in the postseason, but it seems highly unlikely for the Football Team to pull off this upset.
The Chirp 