Weekly notebooks are officially a thing at The Chirp and every Wednesday (due to the unprecedented events on Wednesday, we pushed back this week’s release), we’ll be releasing a NBA Notebook, touching on some key topics, trends, or things that piqued our interest within the last week. As a note of caution before we enter our first post: most teams have played only about 7-8 games, equating to roughly 10% of the season. There is a lot of basketball left to be played so with that in mind, we will try our best to limit the overreactions.
We knew this NBA Season would be a weird one, but I’m not sure anybody anticipated it being this weird. There seems to be a record amount of blowouts within the first two weeks, a likely result from no (or very limited) fans allowed in arenas. This year, especially for home teams, it seems there is not as much energy/incentive to hold on to the rope. Not having the fans’ energy to feed off of certainly *seems* to be effecting teams and possibly certain players as well, although I think there’s also some validity to the belief that more blowouts are occurring because of the relatively abbreviated off-season. It seems like a number of players are not in full “game” shape yet, with the primary one being Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks. With a shortened off-season, unique environment to games, and just the unprecedented scenario teams are in, I don’t think we should be reading too far between the lines on this. As the season progresses and teams get more comfortable I expect a lot of games to tighten up.
With that being said, there are plenty of things we have observed over the first (small) chunk of the season to begin throwing some ideas out. Here’s a look at some of the big topics we have observed so far:
Should Top Teams Be Concerned With Slow Starts?
Entering the NBA Season, the top title contenders were the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, and Denver Nuggets. While those were the “top five”, plenty of other teams were in the mix, such as the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks, and the Phoenix Suns. As of Tuesday night, quite a few of those teams are off to underwhelming starts. While the Lakers, Clippers, 76ers, Celtics, Suns, and Jazz are doing fairly well, the Bucks, Nets, Nuggets, and Mavericks have all been rather sluggish to start. The Brooklyn Nets looked invincible after the first two games but have had a meteoric crash since, going 2-4 since. While the Nets had three narrow losses (and have largely blown out all other opponents), their shiny status has certainly dulled a bit. Like my intro above, I really don’t think there’s much to decipher with the blowout losses; in my opinion, it’s a byproduct of the circumstances. However, there are some concerns with the Nets.
The biggest concern Brooklyn has seen hasn’t necessarily been their defense, but their inability to grab defensive rebounds, a serious problem especially considering the fact that DeAndre Jordan is the starting center. Jordan’s defensive rebound rate is his lowest since the 2012-13 season; he’s clearly lost a step both defensively and on the glass, but considering his best skillset is his rebounding ability, a noticeable regression from Jordan would be a big deal for the Nets. Luckily, Brooklyn is stacked and has talented youngster Jarrett Allen behind Jordan (I’d argue Allen is the superior player). Whoever is the designated starter doesn’t matter too much, as Allen is averaging more minutes per game than Jordan and currently leads the NBA in offensive rebound percentage. However, as a team, Brooklyn has been the 2nd worst in the NBA in securing defensive rebounds. That’s a pretty sizeable problem on its own, but it illustrates how much better Brooklyn could be if they were to secure rebounds more consistently. The Nets rank 7th in defensive rating and if they can just increase their defensive rebounding rate to roughly 73%, they’d become a significantly better basketball team. They have the personnel to do it and rebounding has a little bit of luck built in (long rebounds off three pointers is one way), but Brooklyn’s rebounding ability is an interesting plot line to monitor. Remember, we are working with a small sample size, so 2-3 poor rebounding games has a drastic effect when only 7-8 games have been played so far.
The Milwaukee Bucks have also gotten off to a shaky start, although, once again, there shouldn’t be too much concern. Milwaukee’s biggest weakness will be their bench throughout the year, as they simply do not have enough quality depth on their roster. If that is a serious weakness, it’ll likely become a much bigger problem come postseason time; as of now, Milwaukee’s bench has the third-highest +/- in the league, although I’m incredibly skeptical that remains true. A big reason why their bench has been so good is their ridiculous 45.0% 3-PT mark, one that is bound to decline as the season wears on. The Bucks, as a team, are knocking down 43.6% of their 3-PT attempts, another number I don’t expect to be sustainable over the course of a season. For example, the Utah Jazz were the best 3-PT shooting team from a year ago and knocked down just 38.0% of their 3-PT attempts, while the 2018-19 leader (San Antonio) connected on just 39.2% of their attempts. Milwaukee has had some historic shooting nights already and is a good 3-PT team, but this mark is unsustainable.
With that being said, I think there could be some minor concern that Milwaukee’s 4-3 start, despite their torrid shooting, is not as good as it should be. After all, their shooting is bound to regress and when it does, they’re likely to either lose more games or play more competitive ones. Milwaukee’s opponents have been below average on wide-open 3-PT shooting percentage and 24% of their opponents’ shots are classified as “wide open” by NBA.com, the 7th highest mark in the league. This really isn’t too much of a concern, as Milwaukee allowed the highest percentage of wide-open looks a year ago, but they also allowed a slightly higher percentage of makes. With the shooting expected to regress to the mean for both Milwaukee and their opponents, I think having *some* (and I repeat, *some*) concern is reasonable. However, let’s put their 4-3 start in perspective. The Bucks lost to Boston on a miracle Jayson Tatum shot + a missed Giannis FT, a small loss to Miami in a back-to-back, which are traditionally tougher to win, and a bad, blowout loss to the Knicks in which they shot 18.4% from 3-PT range, while New York shot 59.3%. On paper, the loss to the Knicks is a bad one, but an unusual shooting performance was the driver behind that, not a poor Milwaukee team.
As for the two Western Conference teams off to slower than anticipated starts (Denver and Dallas), I really am not too concerned with either. We’ll touch on Nikola Jokic’s torrid start, but the Nuggets have begun to get their legs underneath them now that Jamal Murray is out of his early season slump. The Nuggets have the 3rd worst defensive rating in the NBA and it’s clear their personnel should not make one excited about their defensive prospects. However, considering their impressive arsenal of offensive firepower, if they can improve their defense to be just around league average (which is possible), Denver will be fine and a serious threat, especially since we anticipate improvement from Michael Porter Jr. throughout the year and possibly Bol Bol cracking the rotation as well. As for Dallas, they are another team not to worry about. The Mavericks have had rebounding issues to begin the year and they rank 28th in team 3-PT%, but their second best player, Kristaps Porzingis, has yet to play in a game. With Porzingis healthy, a lot of their current issues will not be fully solved, but will be remedied enough to reestablish themselves as a Western Conference playoff team. Luka Doncic is still working his way into top shape and considering the shooting struggles that he, Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Richardson, and Jalen Brunson have experienced this year from downtown, Mavs’ fans should be optimistic that this team will quickly get going. If their hot shooting stretch coincides with a Porzingis return, then watch out; they could skyrocket up the standings.
Can We Discuss Nikola Jokic for MVP?
As someone who bet Nikola Jokic to win MVP at +3600 preseason, perhaps I am a bit biased here. After all, the Nuggets are 3-4 to start the year, have a miserable defense, and have generally underachieved to begin the season. With that being said, I’m still not sure people truly appreciate Nikola Jokic’s greatness on the offensive end of the court. While Joel Embiid has been phenomenal to begin the year, I still think it’s incredibly disrespectful to “The Joker” that people still believe Embiid is the clearly better player. Embiid is physically/athletically capable of much more than Jokic is, but in my opinion, Jokic is absolutely the better basketball player. To begin this season, Jokic is currently averaging 24.1 PPG, 11.9 APG, and 11.7 RPG with a shooting line of 61/47/82. Those numbers are beyond MVP-caliber; frankly, they’re historically great and something we have never seen from a center before. Outside of Ja Morant, Jokic has the highest PER in basketball this season and if the number holds (which may be unlikely), he’ll have one of the most efficient seasons of the past decade. We’ve talked about Denver’s defense being horrible this season, but their offense has been 2nd best in the NBA behind Milwaukee’s. We have already outlined how we believe Milwaukee’s start is unsustainable by their shooting numbers, but for the Nuggets’ offense to be this efficient despite the slower starts from key players like Will Barton and Gary Harris is pretty astounding.
Jokic will never be a defensive anchor on a team and when his shooting numbers (along with those of his teammates) begin to naturally regress, it’s reasonable to think his numbers and efficiency will fall as well. However, as of now, there’s little question in my mind that for this season, Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the NBA so far. That does not mean I believe he is the best player in the NBA (that honor remains with LeBron James), but at of who is having the best season? Don’t sleep on Nikola Jokic.
When Will the James Harden Saga End?
With all the James Harden off-season news, followed by him breaking COVID protocol to begin the year, it seemed we were headed for a repeat of the Jimmy Butler/Minnesota fiasco from a few seasons ago, this time Houston style. With the, “Houston, We Have a Problem” tweets filed away in the drafts, it was a matter of time until we saw “The Beard” find a new home. However, with 2-3 weeks of the NBA season complete, the boil has died to a simmer and it seems like Harden’s market has significantly cooled despite his strong start to the season. Houston was reportedly not interested in Brooklyn’s trade package, Philadelphia has little incentive to break up their current roster that has arguably been the best in the NBA to start the year, Milwaukee has no assets to give up in a deal, and Miami reportedly broke off talks a while back. Unless the Rockets willingly deal Harden to some place he has not explicitly “ok’d” (which they are 100% able to do; the problem is other teams may be skeptical of not having a commitment from Harden and would offer a significantly weaker package), I’m not sure we’ll see a Harden deal so quickly. However, here are some possibilities that I think could pop up over the next month or two:
Atlanta Hawks
I have always found the Atlanta Hawks as a particularly interesting destination for Harden and not simply because of his fondness for the city. The Hawks are clearly aiming for a playoff spot this season and based on the aggressiveness of Travis Schlenk and the front office, their eyes are set on much higher goals. Despite the Hawks trading away the draft rights to Luka Doncic, they landed Trae Young who is quickly blossoming into a bonafide star and there’s plenty of talented players around Young, including Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, Rajon Rondo, De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, and more. The Hawks have a variety of assets to offer Houston to make an intriguing package, but also, with Harden, can become a serious threat in the Eastern Conference. A Young/Harden backcourt may be the best in the NBA and, assuming Capela and Bogdanovic would stay put, they’d have an above average supporting cast surrounding those two. If anybody were a bit tentative jumping in on a Young/Harden pairing, I think both would elevate their games alongside each other. Defense would be a major problem, but how would you defend the Hawks?
The Hawks cannot reasonably execute a Harden deal until February 22nd, as that’s when free agents like Danilo Gallinari and Bogdanovic can be included in a potential deal. If this *were* to happen, the Hawks could center a package around Gallinari, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, Tony Snell (for salary purposes), and one of Onyeka Okongwu/De’Andre Hunter, plus an array of picks/pick swaps for Harden and P.J. Tucker. From Atlanta’s standpoint, unless they are so unwilling to give up draft picks, this makes plenty of sense to do; the Hawks seem to have little desire to pay John Collins a big contract despite his impressive play, Gallinari’s contract may become burdensome as he ages, Huerter is replaceable by Harden, and while Okongwu/Hunter would be a tough loss, we’re talking about James Harden. Atlanta could still field a starting five of Young, Harden, Bogdanovic, Tucker, and Capela after this deal with Reddish, Rondo, and others coming off the bench. In all likelihood, a deal between Atlanta and Houston won’t happen, but it sure is fun to imagine.
New Orleans Pelicans
It remains to be seen if James Harden would commit to a team other than the aforementioned clubs (plus Portland), but if so, enter the New Orleans Pelicans. David Griffin has done a tremendous job accumulating a treasure trove of assets from the Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday deals, but he’ll eventually need to cash them in. Having all that ammunition is great, but what if Griffin could use, say, 80% of that ammunition to land James Harden, while still holding on to enough draft capital to maintain a strong future and roster alongside Harden, Ingram, and Williamson? That’s surely an interesting proposition.
The framework of a Pelicans/Rockets deal would be relatively simple; New Orleans would get James Harden, Houston would get Eric Bledsoe, Lonzo Ball, Jaxson Hayes, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If the Pelicans also wanted P.J. Tucker (which is reasonable), then New Orleans could throw in Josh Hart to make the money work. However, the major allure to a deal with New Orleans is the amount of draft capital Houston could get their hands on. While the Rockets would likely hang up if Brandon Ingram weren’t included, landing Lonzo Ball (who’s shown a lot of promise), Jaxson Hayes, NAW, and Hart is an “ok” haul, but if they could get, say, 4-5 first-round picks plus a couple of pick swaps, it becomes substantially better. I’m not advocating for either side to do this deal; frankly, it’s a fun thought exercise in a weekly article but holds little substance in reality. However, I’d keep an eye out for the Pelicans on the Harden front. I think there is a slight possibility of a match.
Final Thought: Are the Knicks for Real?
To end our inaugural notebook I thought I’d address the most surprising team from the NBA season so far: the New York Knicks. The Knicks have pulled off three straight upset victories and are currently 5-3 and the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference. While watching the standings this early in the year is rather foolish, this is the Knicks we’re talking about, a team many expected to be among the worst in the NBA.
Despite the optimism from New York fans, I am incredibly confident that we will see New York stumble in the upcoming weeks. While their January schedule is fairly easy, the Knicks have gotten incredibly lucky to begin the year. New York was shooting a torrid (and unsustainable) mark on wide-open threes until rather recently, when it has begun to drop. The Knicks simply don’t have many, if any, reliable 3-PT shooters on the roster, so to see them hover highly at the top of the league was incredibly unexpected. Currently, Alec Burks and Austin Rivers are combining to average 10 3-PT attempts per game on 61% 3-PT shooting; on what planet is that sustainable? Reggie Bullock’s 3-PT numbers may improve, but his improvement won’t offset the expected regression we’ll witness from Burks and Rivers, two players who have never shot above 40% from 3-PT range for an entire season. Another concern is on the opposite end of the shooting spectrum, as opponents have shot the 2nd lowest percentage on wide-open threes against the Knicks, despite New York allowing the 2nd highest wide-open three rate in the NBA. Once again, this illustrates a ton of luck flowing New York’s way; eventually, teams will knock down wide open threes against New York at a higher clip and considering how many wide open shots they are allowing, well, it’s bound to get ugly really quick. New York is also allowing the lowest percentage of makes on “open” threes, further indicating the incredible string of luck this team has witnessed this year.
Currently, it has to be fun being a Knicks fan. The team blew out the Milwaukee Bucks, has rattled off three straight sizable upsets against Indiana, Atlanta, and Utah, and has some moxie to it that the Garden has lacked ever since Kristaps Porzingis tore his ACL. However, this should be an “enjoy it while it lasts” moment; New York’s scoring margin is basically around even despite their 5-3 record and 20-point victory over Milwaukee, they have the 2nd highest turnover rate in the NBA, they don’t force turnovers, and have benefitted from incredible shooting luck. Things are certainly brighter for the Knicks now that Leon Rose is in charge and while I was skeptical of the hiring of Tom Thibodeau, he is a respected voice on the bench and has the Knicks playing competitively. I feel very confident anticipating the Knicks to struggle coming up, but the NBA is better when the Knicks are good. If nothing else, it’s been a fun couple of weeks and Julius Randle has really taken a step forwards this year. That’s a positive for New York.
The Chirp 