The NBA Season is officially here and with a late December start, it truly is the most wonderful time of the year. Today, we’re running through our ultimate NBA Season Preview, detailing what should be a loaded Western Conference. Stats are courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise stated. Teams are also listed by alphabetical order under each “tier”, with a full playoff prediction present at the end.
It should come as no surprise that the Western Conference is, once again, absolutely loaded this season. Not only do we have the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers, but their crosstown neighbor, the Los Angeles Clippers, are arguably a top-3 team as well. Throw in the rising Denver Nuggets, Luka Doncic-led Dallas Mavericks, Utah Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers, and the new look Phoenix Suns, and that gives us seven legitimate contenders off the bat. While the Eastern Conference is much improved this year, it still doesn’t come close to matching the Western Conference in terms of quality depth. We may have thirteen teams seen as legitimate threats to push for the postseason this year, with the only two I’m giving a small/zero chance being the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings.
Today, I’ll run through my own predictions and thoughts about each team in the Western Conference and at the end, I’ll include my bold predictions/playoff seedings alongside some of our other team members at The Chirp.
Tier 1: The Serious Contenders
Denver Nuggets
It’s nearly impossible to not admire what the Denver Nuggets were able to accomplish in The Bubble this past summer. Not only was Denver the first team in NBA history to overcome back-to-back 3-1 deficits, but they did it in a setting that took a tough mental/emotional toll on the players. The Nuggets showed an incredible display of toughness, grit, and determination to claw their way back in those series and a ton of credit should go to Head Coach Michael Malone. Malone, who was unnecessarily pushed out of Sacramento, has established himself as one of the very best coaches in the NBA and one of my personal favorites. His energy is infectious, he’s an awesome guy, and the players clearly love playing for him. With Malone on the sidelines, Nikola Jokic establishing himself as a player with an outside shot at MVP, and the leap Jamal Murray took, it’s hard not to get excited about the Denver Nuggets this season.
Last season, the Nuggets had the 2nd highest frequency of plays come from handoffs last season in the NBA. While Denver wasn’t particularly efficient in those sets (35th percentile), but it illustrates how Nikola Jokic is the lynchpin of this offense. Denver’s offense was pretty sluggish to start the year last season, but Denver clearly found something in the postseason at times. The most efficient form of Denver’s offense is off cuts, where they ranked in the 97th percentile, in large part because of Jokic’s elite passing ability. I’d declare Jokic is a top-5 passer in the NBA and likely top-3 and his court vision is arguably one of the best individual skills a player has in the current NBA. The Nuggets did lose two of their most effective cutters in Jerami Grant and Torrey Craig, but they’ll get a healthy Will Barton back, who ranked in the 98th percentile on cuts last season. I lean slightly towards Nikola Jokic turning players into elite cutters rather than elite cutters fitting in with Denver, but that notion will be tested. Newcomer JaMychal Green will be one player to watch, as he’s likely to partially fill Jerami Grant’s role. Green ranked in the 5th percentile as a cutter last season; let’s see if that improves, because it’ll need to for him to properly fit Denver’s offensive scheme.
The Nuggets took a massive leap forwards in the postseason, getting over the hump and making the Conference Finals. They’re a tough team to judge simply because although they did stage two monumental comebacks, they were down 3-1 in both series for a reason. Now, it’s fair to mention that the Nuggets were without two starters for nearly the entire Utah Jazz series (Will Barton & Gary Harris) and nobody expected them to beat the Clippers, but it is a reasonable to question to ask how good this team truly is. We’d be talking about them in a very different light if they lost 4-1 to the Jazz.
Denver’s ceiling will ultimately be determined by three players: Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Bol Bol. Murray burst onto the star scene with his unreal performance in the postseason and if he can do that with added consistency (I believe he can), then the Nuggets will have one of the best duos in the game with Jokic/Murray. Porter Jr. showed impressive flashes in The Bubble, but his defense is a mess and he needs to improve his playmaking to stick. With that being said, Porter Jr. played sparingly in the regular season and his first serious minutes came in the postseason. If he didn’t hurt his back, he arguably would’ve been the #1 overall pick a few years ago. He’s unlikely to ever be a good defender, but his scoring potential rivals that of what we currently see from Jayson Tatum. If MPJ continues to improve, the Nuggets will be downright terrifying. Lastly, we saw some Bol Bol in the qualifying games over the summer and oh boy, was it scary. Having a 7’3 center push the ball in transition, hit pull-up threes with ease, and block shots is a player some may call a “unicorn”. The problem with that term, of course, is that as these players become more common, they’re no longer unicorns. Still, Bol’s upside is sky high and if he can just fill a productive 14-18 minute role, that’s huge for Denver.
I’ve been a huge believer in the Nuggets for the past few seasons; in fact, I predicted they would represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals prior to the start of last season. I think Nikola Jokic is on a MVP trajectory, Jamal Murray seems like a budding star, and the potential of Porter Jr. and Bol are ridiculously high. Add in an incredibly talented supporting cast of Gary Harris, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Monte Morris, JaMychal Green, P.J. Dozier, and Facundo Campazzo, and it’s hard to not fall in love with the Nuggets’ roster. I think they’ll feel the losses of Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee, but they should be able to adequately replace them with Green/expanded role for MPJ and Bol. Maybe they take a slight step backwards, but I really expect this team’s upward trajectory to continue.
Los Angeles Clippers
Disaster: that’s how I’d describe the Los Angeles Clippers’ 2019-20 NBA Season. While the circumstances weren’t ideal for anyone, the steady stream of stories from The Athletic and other media outlets surrounding what went wrong with the Clippers made it truly seem like a brutal situation. The Athletic’s story regarding the chemistry dysfunction, including Kawhi Leonard late to flights and living in San Diego, having a private training room, and the special treatment that both George/Leonard received was pretty damning. Considering the Clippers were the ultimate blue-collar, dirty work team fans admired because of their fight, the clash of styles, personality, and culture did the Clippers in. I’m not sure that magically changes with Ty Lue in, but the culture/cohesiveness of this team is clearly a problem.
The Clippers were a fairly heavy P&R team last season, yet they didn’t address a major flaw which is the lack of a true point guard. There’s a lot of pressure on Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to create shots for themselves and others and neither one is the best playmaker. Kawhi is a top-5 player in the NBA, but Paul George’s stock has really plummeted since the postseason. It’s tough to put an accurate gauge on this team because while the talent is clearly there, it was last year too when they extremely underwhelmed. As mentioned in our Eastern Conference Preview, I believe playmaking to be the most overlooked trait when building a team. The Clippers still lack the essential playmaking on this roster; yes, Kawhi can get his own shot at will and, despite his postseason struggles, Paul George can get himself clean looks too, but who else can do it for themselves and others on this roster? Lou Williams was fairly ineffective against the Nuggets in the postseason and is a complete negative on the defensive end, Reggie Jackson is more of a scoring guard who is not a reliable shot creator, Patrick Beverley is known for his talking more than his play (although, he’s a pretty good defender and an awesome competitor), and while Luke Kennard is a great shooter, his game will need to take a substantial step forwards for him to be a reliable, secondary playmaker.
With my concerns regarding LA’s playmaking, I will admit I think this team is in better shape entering this season, which is pretty shocking considering how loaded their roster was perceived to be last year. Everything hinges on whether or not this group can cohesively gel together, but if they can, it’s tough to find many rosters more talented than this one. Serge Ibaka was fantastic in the postseason for the Raptors the past two years and provides a much-needed new dimension in LA’s frontcourt as a floor spacer. Ivica Zubac is incredibly productive on a per-minute basis, but he doesn’t give a ton offensively outside of offensive rebounds and rolls to the rim; Ibaka is the superior player who provides added versatility. As a Mavericks’ fan, it’s tough for me to say anything good about Marcus Morris, but I’ll admit he was very productive for the Clippers and is a very good 3-and-D player. Add in the aforementioned Beverley, Jackson, Lou Will, Kennard, and likely contributions from Nicolas Batum, Patrick Patterson, and possibly Terance Mann, and it’s really tough to see many flaws outside of the clear lack of playmaking. For a team that runs P&R as often as the Clippers, that seems to be a pretty major flaw, but we’ll see if Ty Lue adapts his scheme or not entering the year.
Los Angeles Lakers
For a team coming off winning the NBA Finals, it’s very tough to follow that up by having a terrific off-season. Usually, winning the Finals comes with the accepted notion that the team will face some departures in the off-season and be unable to find solid replacements simply because of a cap crunch. For the Lakers, that was not at all the case. Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, and Danny Green are all gone, but the Lakers brought in Dennis Schroder, Marc Gasol, Montrezl Harrell, and Wesley Matthews as replacements. I’d argue the Lakers got clearly better on paper this off-season, particularly with their bench. Admittedly, I think Harrell is wildly overrated, but for what is essentially a one-year deal, he’s likely to add a much-needed P&R partner off the bench. The Lakers rarely utilized their bigs in P&R action last season, but when they did, they were highly effective. There’s an opportunity for Harrell to add a different dimension to the current iteration of this roster, and for a team that who occasionally struggled to manufacture some offense without both LeBron & AD on the court together, I think Harrell could be a fine acquisition. Harrell is a poor defender and limited to a high-energy/rim running role, but he’s very good at what he does well. Schroder arguably should’ve been 6th Man of the Year last season and while his historical splits make me skeptical of him repeating his 38.5% 3-PT mark last season, he’s a fantastic creator and playmaker.
The Lakers’ new upgrades should, at the very minimum, at least allow them to maintain the level of play they were on last season. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers clearly have two of the top-5 players in the world and in my opinion, LeBron is still clearly #1. It’s nearly impossible to bet against LeBron; after all, this is a guy who made every NBA Finals in the 2010s outside of two, one of which he missed a good chunk of the season. The Lakers’ roster isn’t leaps and bounds better on paper than their crosstown rival’s, but it’s at worst, comparable. Considering how cohesive this group looked last season and the upgrades they made, I have a very hard time imagining how the Lakers don’t come out of the Western Conference. Uncertainty can happen and it’s extremely difficult to repeat as NBA Champions, or even Conference Champions, but thinking LeBron James won’t do that is just as tough to imagine.
Tier 2: Really Good, But Not Top Tier
Dallas Mavericks
Like with the Denver Nuggets, it’s really tough to look at the Dallas Mavericks and not be excited about their future. If he stays healthy, it’s only a matter of time until Luka Doncic wins multiple MVPs and becomes the best player in the world. He is truly an offensive maestro who helped architect (alongside the most underrated coach in the NBA, Rick Carlisle) the best offensive in NBA history in terms of offensive rating. Doncic is arguably the best passer in the NBA, but he took a major step forwards last season as a scorer, particularly when attacking the basket. Doncic shot 75.2% at the rim last season, a massive improvement over his 63.7% mark as a rookie. Additional spacing helped, but Doncic utilized his strength, quick change of direction, and size at a much more effective clip. The sky isn’t even the limit for how good Luka can be. If his shooting can get around a league average percentage (he’s a better shooter then his percentages indicate, although he’s still, at best, just average), then he could easily average 30+ PPG alongside 10+ rebounds and assists.
From a wholistic point of view, the Mavericks are an intriguing team for a lot of reasons. While their offense was historically great last season, their defense was below the level necessary to be a legitimate championship threat. The acquisition of Josh Richardson was one of the most underrated moves of the off-season, as Richardson is a tremendous defender who also has some playmaking chops as well. While Richardson’s shooting is a tad overrated, he’ll have a prime opportunity for some clean looks. I don’t think it’s crazy to think he could shoot 38-39% from deep this year and be one of the most improved players. Losing Seth Curry could hurt Dallas’ offense, but if you told someone two years ago that a team could trade Seth Curry for Josh Richardson and a pick, they would’ve called you crazy. Richardson’s stock took a massive hit because of a bad situation in Philadelphia; after all, he was a key centerpiece of a Jimmy Butler deal a year ago. That move by the Mavericks was fantastic. Dallas added additional defensive talent as well, including their first-round selection Josh Green, Wesley Iwundu, and James Johnson, who figures to fill the “enforcer” role. Johnson is much more than just a MMA fighter though and Dallas should be more balanced. Perhaps their offense takes a step backwards, as Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, and Maxi Kleber all had career-years shooting. But, even if those three regress a bit, Dallas’ offense will still be within the top-5 and their defense should take a noticeable step forwards. The ceiling of this current Mavs’ roster is significantly higher than last year’s team which gave the Clippers a serious run for their money.
The biggest question mark for the Mavs is without a doubt the health of Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis seems likely to be ready in early/mid January and man was he good last season despite coming off an 18-month layoff. Porzingis clearly benefitted playing with Doncic, but he was also an elite rim-protector and a much improved rebounder. If Porzingis is healthy and continues to develop, he has a legitimate chance to be a top-25 player in the NBA by the end of the season. This is an incredibly exciting and fun team. They may get off to a slow start without Porzingis and a brutal opening stretch of games, but things should (hopefully) be clicking by February/March. With improved depth, defense, and the continued growth of Luka Doncic, watch out for the Mavericks.
Portland Trail Blazers
For all the talk about the improvements the Atlanta Hawks and Los Angeles Lakers made this off-season, how about the Portland Trail Blazers? Neil Olshey and Co. crushed the off-season and they now have a team that eerily resembles the one that made the Western Conference Finals two seasons ago, although I’d argue this version is even better. Damian Lillard is one of my favorite dark-horse MVP picks for the season; Lillard went nuclear over the final 20-30 games to get Portland into the play-in game and while they benefitted from The Bubble to get in, he’s played at a top-10 level for the past year or so. C.J. McCollum is an ideal secondary playmaker/scorer, but I love the upgrades Portland has finally made to their supporting cast. Robert Covington is a phenomenal defender and an ideal fit alongside Lillard/McCollum, Enes Kanter was terrific with Portland a few years ago and fits their schemes overall, especially since his slow lateral movement will be hidden in Terry Stotts’ drop coverage scheme. Jusuf Nurkic should be fully healthy, Carmelo Anthony was productive last season, and if Rodney Hood is back at near-full health, he’ll be a huge scoring boost off the bench. Gary Trent Jr. was among the most improved players in The Bubble as well, and I didn’t even mention Zach Collins (who is currently hurt), Harry Giles, and Anfernee Simons. This is a deep team with plenty of top-heavy talent; I’m all in on the Blazers’ hype train.
One concern I do have with the Trail Blazers is how conducive their system is to postseason success. While the Blazers made the Conference Finals and were much more competitive than the sweep indicated, this is a team that had the fewest passes in the league per game last season. With that being said, Lillard is a dynamite scorer as is McCollum, but there is not as much free-flowing ball movement and cutting as you’d ideally want from a title contender. Portland was the best team in the NBA in P&R sets with their ball-handlers, indicating Lillard’s greatness in particular. It doesn’t make sense to strongly deviate from something you’re elite at, but improved ball movement and more intricate play designs could open things up more for Portland. Nurkic’s passing ability is a huge boost to this team for when teams trap Lillard and the surrounding supporting cast is better, but seeing how this idea becomes action is a determinant in how legit the Blazers are. I think my concerns are fairly minor to be honest and I am a huge believer in this Portland team.
Utah Jazz
While the Portland Trail Blazers are one team that has certainly improved, I think the Utah Jazz are still pretty close in comparison. Although divisions are essentially antiquated in the NBA, the Northwest Division that features Denver, Portland, and Utah is a ton of fun. Outside of watching the Mavericks, my favorite games to watch feature Portland/Denver/Utah going H2H in some combination. They seemingly always play fun, competitive games and feature plenty of my favorite players in the NBA (Jokic, Murray, Lillard, Mitchell). I am a touch lower on the Jazz than I am Denver/Portland, but Utah is another team well within the playoff safety net and should be an underrated threat to potentially crash the Conference Finals this year.
Utah is coming off a 3-1 meltdown in The Bubble to Denver, but I think something like that will make Utah stronger. The Jazz were without Bojan Bogdanovic for the entire postseason and Mike Conley missed some time as well; Bogdanovic’s loss in particular was massive. Remember, when Houston beat Utah in 2019, the Jazz simply couldn’t make any open threes. They made a drastic roster change last season to address that flaw and they successfully did, ranking 1st in 3-PT% a year ago. Not having their best shooter available in the postseason was extremely noticeable, as outside of Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson, Utah just didn’t have enough consistent scoring. With Bogdanovic healthy and Clarkson returning, Utah could be even more dangerous than they were last season.
Utah’s defense did take a slight dip last season to year’s past, although I’m not terribly concerned. The Jazz seriously lacked frontcourt depth last season but made an incredibly underrated move of bringing Derrick Favors back. Favors was terrific in Utah and is a really great team defender, especially around the basket. The acquisition of Favors is one that will absolutely payoff come postseason time. The Jazz had the highest frequency of plays last season in P&R that featured the ball-handler making “the play”, and ranked in the 72nd percentile. While their defense took a *slight* step backwards, bringing Favors back should give them a boost without sacrificing their newfound offensive success. I’m not sure Jordan Clarkson can continue the torrid pace he was on when arriving in Salt Lake City and Orlando, but if he can match 80-90% of that production, he’ll still be one of the best 6th men in the game. Add in a terrific supporting cast of Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Georges Niang, and Shaq Harrison, and this is a pretty solid Jazz roster.
One player I have yet to mention is Rudy Gobert. Gobert is a complicated guy for me to evaluate; on the one hand, he is truly a dominant defender and greatly improved his perimeter defense and switchability last season. No longer could Gobert be run off the court when forced into a perimeter-oriented game. Despite this growth, I still believe he’s wildly overrated and this is a huge season for him, as his massive contract extension limits Utah’s ability to improve this roster in a meaningful way. Gobert’s feel for the game is still a little below what is desired, he lacks touch around the rim, and has struggled in the postseason. Donovan Mitchell is establishing himself as a legitimate superstar, but as Gobert currently stands, I’m not sure he can be the second best player on a team hoping to win a championship. He’s obviously a very good player, but he has to be much better if the Jazz want to get over the hump. This team has been eliminated three straight seasons before the Conference Finals despite having a roster capable of making it that far. It’s fair to be patient and let Donovan Mitchell continue to grow into a bonafide alpha, but the clock is ticking a bit louder in Utah and Portland than it is in Denver.
Tier 3: On The Border
Golden State Warriors
Injuries suck and the repeated injuries to Klay Thompson are truly heartbreaking. Klay is one of my favorite players in the NBA and his competitiveness is such an underrated trait. With Thompson out for the season, I have a tough time envisioning how the Warriors score enough to be a serious threat in the Western Conference. Steph Curry is still Steph Curry, but unless he averages 35 PPG, Golden State is going to struggle to manufacture offense. Andrew Wiggins can score, but he’s a volume scorer who’s not particularly efficient. I like Kelly Oubre Jr. as a tertiary piece, but asking him to score 17-18 PPG consistently is a major step forwards for him. Draymond Green is a valuable player, but his role should be rather defined. Green’s shooting has taken a dip since they’ve been a title team and his on-ball defense is vastly overrated. Green, at his best, is a point forward who’s a tremendous off-ball defender. For a team desperate for more offense, I don’t see him having as big of an impact on this iteration of Golden State’s team as he’s had in year’s past.
While I am a bit lower on Golden State’s roster than others, the caveat is James Wiseman. We barely saw Wiseman at Memphis last season due to eligibility issues, but his potential is off the charts. Wiseman is an elite athlete who will function as an elite rim runner, but his ability to play in the open court could be an interesting wrinkle for this team. If Wiseman blossoms quicker than expected, then I’ll rapidly hop on Golden State’s bandwagon. I’m skeptical of it happening, but I am rooting for it. Steph Curry deserves another postseason run.
One thing I did want to point out was that due to the volume of injuries Golden State suffered last season, a lot of the players who were thrust into large roles are taking on more of a secondary role this season, giving the Warriors a much-improved bench. For a team that is shelling out a $100M+ luxury tax bill, having an effective bench is a slight miracle considering the cap crunch. Damion Lee was really solid as a starter last year, Eric Paschall showed tremendous promise in his rookie season, Kevon Looney, if healthy, is a terrific backup, and even Marquese Chriss seems to have found a home. With veterans Brad Wanamaker and Kent Bazemore also in tow, this is a solid enough bench to supplement a solid starting five. I’m not one to bet against Steph Curry, but this is an uphill battle for the Warriors this year. Never underestimate the heart of a champion, but I will say to pump the breaks slightly on any Golden State hype surrounding their ceiling.
Houston Rockets
Truthfully, I have zero idea how to evaluate the Houston Rockets this season. Not only has there been so much turnover in Houston, but there’s also the dark cloud hanging over the team surrounding James Harden’s status. Shams Charania of The Athletic released a report today that detailed the growing frustration with Harden, including throwing a ball at a rookie. It seems like this situation can quickly become ugly, similar to the one that fell upon the Minnesota Timberwolves and Jimmy Butler a few years ago. I’d be surprised if Harden finished the year in Houston; when does it really work out for a team to keep a disgruntled star?
Out of respect for Harden’s greatness, you have to think Houston will at least be in the mix (and likely safe) if he gives full effort. However, I highly doubt that happens. I’m super excited to see John Wall healthy and think he’ll be a pleasant surprise. Still, last we saw him, he was rather inefficient and still a bit of an inconsistent shooter. I think it’s an incredibly tall ask for Wall, who hasn’t played in two years, to somehow engineer this Rockets team to the postseason. Christian Wood was tremendous last season and seems to be a prime Most Improved Player candidate, but is he enough to get Houston in? With a fully invested Harden, I definitely think this roster is good enough and they’re probably close to the 4th seed. Without that commitment, it’s so tough to evaluate. We know who Eric Gordon and Danuel House are, I’m not sure DeMarcus Cousins can be consistently counted on due to his injury history, P.J. Tucker is a great piece but he’s had his own contract disputes with Houston, and the team still has a rail thin bench. I’m not sure how Stephen Silas plans to adapt Mike D’Antoni’s scheme, but I do live the hire. Silas was on Dallas’ bench the past few seasons and the Mavericks run a similar offense to Houston, except it’s a lot less isolation-heavy and a much bigger emphasis on off-ball movement, screening, and pick-and-roll. I think Silas’ scheme could take Houston to greater heights, but it requires complete buy-in.
As a final note, while James Harden’s preferred destinations are reportedly Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Miami, and Milwaukee, I think the Atlanta Hawks are a fascinating fit. It likely won’t happen, but the Hawks could compile a rather interesting package around John Collins, Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish, and some picks. Letting Harden be in Atlanta 24/7 may be dangerous, but I’d like to see anyone try and defend a Trae Young/James Harden backcourt. I ultimately think he winds up in Philly for a return package that features Ben Simmons, but don’t be surprised if a secret team is lurking.
Memphis Grizzlies
If there’s one team I strongly believe deserves some more respect, it is the Memphis Grizzlies. If not for Jaren Jackson Jr.’s injury in The Bubble, the Grizzlies may have even avoided needing the play-in game. Memphis was really good last season and has the reigning Rookie of the Year in Ja Morant, who I think is a budding superstar. While JJJ will be out for the beginning of the season, and Justise Winslow too, I think Morant is good enough to keep this team afloat. Memphis has the talent to be a postseason team and I think people are too quickly writing them off.
The one player we simply do not talk about enough in the NBA is Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas isn’t the prototypical modern big, but he’s incredibly productive when given the opportunity. Val is a dominant low post player who shot 35.2% from 3-PT range last season, averaged 11.3 rebounds per game, and contributed 2.8 defensive win shares. He’s one of the most productive and underrated players in the NBA and is a suitable second option before JJJ returns. With promising sophomore Brandon Clarke behind JJJ and Valanciunas, Memphis’ frontcourt rotation is quietly one of the best in the league. From a roster standpoint, they’re very well constructed.
There’s certainly some worthy cause for concern surrounding Memphis considering their early injuries, but their depth is really impressive and this is clearly a team on the rise. De’Anthony Melton is a really talented defensive guard, Tyus Jones is an incredibly efficient backup, Dillon Brooks is a microwave-type shooter, Kyle Anderson is a good glue guy and playmaker, and Gorgui Dieng is a fine backup big. Add in potential contributions from Grayson Allen and Desmond Bane, and there’s enough here to remain competitive before Jackson Jr. and Winslow return. If Morant takes the leap as expected, then I don’t see any reason why Memphis can’t make the postseason.
Phoenix Suns
Some of you may be incredulous that I have the Phoenix Suns as a “bubble” team, but I think they are wildly overrated entering the season. Prior to the physical “bubble” last season, they were 26-39. If they didn’t play in the bubble, not only would they have been unlikely to acquire Chris Paul, but we also likely wouldn’t even be considering them as a postseason threat. Phoenix won a lot of close games in Orlando and while it’s undeniable that they were impressive, I think we all need to pump the brakes on anointing Phoenix a playoff berth. They’ll be improved, but they’re not a lock.
Phoenix’s backcourt of Chris Paul and Devin Booker could make a case as the best in the Western Conference (and possibly the NBA), but I’m not sure Paul is as good as he performed last season. Paul was the NBA’s best clutch performer a year ago, but after the 2018-19 season, many were writing him off and declaring his contract to be amongst the worst in the NBA. Last season was an impressive campaign, but I don’t think it dramatically changed my opinion of CP3. He’s still a top-30 player in the NBA, but I don’t think he’ll turn a fringe playoff contender into a top-5 team in a conference. Devin Booker will surely take a massive leap with Paul to set him up, but I think the biggest beneficiary will be DeAndre Ayton. Ayton has quietly been forgotten a bit due to Doncic and Trae Young’s insane success, but Ayton was the #1 overall pick that year. A suspension cost him a lot of games last year, but when he was on the court, he took a massive step forwards defensively, an area many expected him to struggle. Ayton is still a talented low-post guy, a good rebounder, and a capable shooter. He should dramatically improve with Chris Paul’s presence.
Phoenix’s Big Three is really good, but the rest of the roster has a lot of question marks for me. I am irrationally high on Mikal Bridges; I even went far enough to compare him to Kawhi Leonard in the 2018 NBA Draft and ranked him as my #5 prospect that year. Bridges is a borderline elite defender and deserves more respect; he’s an ideal complimentary piece. However, count me as someone who’s skeptical of the impact Jae Crowder will provide. In my opinion, Crowder is one of the most overrated players in the NBA. He shot an unsustainable 44% from deep with Miami; for his career, he shoots 34.0%. His defense is also overrated as well; he’s fine on that end of the court, but his best play has come with Boston and Miami, two places with elite coaches who always bring the best out of players. Outside of those two locations, Crowder has still been solid, but much closer to an average player. Phoenix will need Crowder to perform closer to his Miami/Boston level than his traditional level in order to fully maximize their roster’s potential. Outside of Crowder/Bridges, there’s not many pieces I’m super excited about. Cameron Johnson is a quality role player who had a solid rookie season, Dario Saric’s development has stagnated and I’m not sold on him being much more than an average NBA player, and Langston Galloway was a nice, under-the-radar signing. However, this Phoenix team was partially good in The Bubble because of Cameron Payne, who they seem to be reliant on this season as a key reserve. That, I do not understand. While it’s the backup point guard position, I think it points to an overall critique I have of Phoenix: they’re relying a lot on players who are coming off really good years that I think are unsustainable, or on players who have had impressive flashes but not consistent great play.
Despite my criticisms of Phoenix, this is a really talented team with a fantastic coach in Monty Williams. In general, I wouldn’t say I’m “low” on Phoenix, but in comparison to the takes I’ve seen flying around, I am much more milder on the Suns. They’re good, but if you’re expecting Conference Finals, you’re bound to be disappointed.
Tier 4: They’ve Got a Shot, But Are Underdogs
New Orleans Pelicans
For many, it may be a shock to include the Pelicans here. After all, there is a ton of hype in the Big Easy, especially surrounding Zion Williamson. There’s no denying Zion’s per minute production and he’s well on his way to stardom, but I’m not sold on him being good enough to be “the guy” on carrying a team to the postseason. The Pelicans have the reigning Most Improved Player in Brandon Ingram, but Ingram’s production took a hit with Zion on the court. I’m not super concerned about Zion’s struggles in the qualifying games since his conditioning seemed to be subpar, but his conditioning does seem to be a genuine concern. He’s a physical monster, but his style of play is not always the most refined. I think teams will properly adjust to his bully-ball tendencies and while he has a lot more finesse in his game than people realize, he has plenty of room for growth, particularly defensively.
The biggest reason why I’m low on the Pelicans this year is because I hate their roster construction. If you’re building around Zion Williamson, you need as much spacing as possible. So, what do the Pelicans do? Acquire Steven Adams, a player who is the antithesis of floor spacing. Adams is a terrific screener and a solid interior player, but how does he fit alongside Williamson? I think Williamson is ideally a five on offense and four on defense (since he can’t play P&R defense), but with Adams on the roster, it’ll be a really shrunk floor. Considering Lonzo Ball’s shooting is still inconsistent and Eric Bledsoe is an average shooter, I think New Orleans’ offense will struggle more than people expect. This is a roster that has ample playmaking, but not a good enough shooting/playmaking balance. J.J. Redick can only do so much.
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs are a franchise at a crossroads. DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge will hit free agency at the end of the year, yet the Spurs don’t seem to have a legitimate centerpiece to build around going forwards. DeRozan is still a really good player, as is Aldridge, but neither are good enough to will a team to the postseason in the loaded Western Conference. It really is a shame to see the Spurs regress like this, especially when considering the manner in which it has happened. San Antonio seemed set for the next 10-15 years until Zaza Pachulia’s fateful shuffle underneath Kawhi Leonard’s ankle. With Leonard forcing his way out of San Antonio in an incredibly unprofessional fashion, only for that issue to be compounded by Marcus Morris reneging on his commitment, which cost the Spurs Davis Bertans, it has been an unfortunate series of events that has turned San Antonio like this. R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich deserve a lot better.
With that being said, I have way too much respect for Popovich and the Spurs to count them out. Their defense needs to be substantially better to be a postseason team, but there are some intriguing young pieces here, just not a true building block. We’re still waiting on the Dejounte Murray breakout, Derrick White is a pretty good two-way guy, and both Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson have showed some promise. The Spurs really need some more athleticism in the frontcourt, meaning Johnson’s development in particular is quite important. Devin Vassell, San Antonio’s first round pick, is a perfect fit on the roster and with two quality vets in Patty Mills and Rudy Gay, the Spurs are still in the mix. However, this is certainly a transition year. I’d be surprised if both Aldridge and DeRozan were still in San Antonio next season, meaning they could both be trade deadline candidates. With loads of cap space available for the Spurs this upcoming summer, it’s truly a unique time period for San Antonio with a lot of opportunities.
Tier 5: Building for the Future, Wait a Year (Or More)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Perhaps the Timberwolves have an outside shot to push for a play-in berth, but I still don’t really see it. Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the best players in the NBA, but his defense is still an area where he could improve. I’m a huge KAT fan and if he was in a bigger market, he would generate a lot more recognition and respect. Him and D’Angelo Russell should be a fun duo that puts a lot of points on the board, but I’m afraid they’ll also allow a lot of points as well. Anthony Edwards, the #1 overall pick, is a player I’m not entirely sold on and think the fit could be a little clunky alongside KAT and D’Lo. I’m very interested in watching Jarrett Culver’s progression as I was very high on him coming out of Texas Tech.
Overall, there’s certainly a direction in Minnesota and an improved roster. There’s some intriguing pieces here, I just think it’s too soon to expect Minnesota to compete. I wouldn’t be surprised if they resembled the Wizards team from a year ago that was elite offensively but horrible defensively.
Oklahoma City Thunder
It’s hard to not greatly admire the culture the Oklahoma City Thunder have built. Despite massive turnover and somehow having KD, Harden, Ibaka, and Westbrook all on the same roster (and not winning a title), for them to stay so good for such a long time is impressive. With that being said, we are officially entering rebuilding mode in OKC. There’s a lot to be hopeful for, however, as Sam Presti has gone full hoarding mode on us with one billion first-round picks over the next seven drafts or so. Presti has put on a clinic on asset management and many front office executives should take note.
This year, expectations for OKC will rightfully be low. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was impressive last season and this is his first opportunity to truly run his own team. I’m excited to see his growth. I think Al Horford’s decline last season was much more due to fit than a straight regression in his performance, but Father Time does seem to be catching up a bit. If Horford is able to rehabilitate his value a bit, he could be dealt at the trade deadline. Horford’s contract is bloated, but his final year is only partially guaranteed so if he performs at the level he did two seasons ago, he’ll be a really valuable player.
Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings were such a pleasant surprise two seasons ago, but now? I think they have the bleakest future out of any team in the Western Conference other than Houston. This is coming from someone who loves De’Aaron Fox too and loves the Kings’ franchise and fans, but there’s just no momentum for improvement here. Forcing Dave Joerger out as head coach was a horrible decision, especially replacing him with Luke Walton who I believe is the worst head coach in the NBA. Fox is fantastic, but who else does Sacramento have around him who is a viable, long-term piece? I would say Buddy Hield, but he doesn’t seem enthusiastic about his situation in Sacramento. Maybe Marvin Bagley III is, but he’s been consistently injured and has a flawed game. I never see Bagley becoming an all-star level player personally, and considering the Kings could’ve had Luka Doncic, it hurts even more.
I do really like the Tyrese Halliburton selection for the Kings, but he’s not enough for me to get truly excited about Sacramento. Richaun Holmes and Harrison Barnes are nice pieces, but I’m left wanting more, especially for a team that has the longest postseason drought in the NBA.
Playoff Seeding & Predictions
- Denver Nuggets
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Utah Jazz
- Dallas Mavericks
- Phoenix Suns
- Golden State Warriors
- Memphis Grizzlies
- New Orleans Pelicans
- San Antonio Spurs
- Houston Rockets
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Sacramento Kings
Playoff Predictions
As a foreword note, I have the Lakers as the 3rd seed because I anticipate Anthony Davis and LeBron James resting for a decent amount of games. Perhaps they stagger their rest, but I think the Lakers may punt the regular season to an extent in order to maximize their stars legs come postseason time, especially if home-court advantage isn’t a thing.
Warriors OVER Grizzlies in Play-In Game
My respect for Steph Curry’s greatness leads me to opting for the Warriors as the 8th seed. Simply put, Curry is the best shooter the league has ever seen and I think he has a monster season to get back into the postseason. It’ll be another tough end with Memphis just missing the postseason again, but I think Curry and Co. will be tough to beat in a play-in situation. Can’t go against the champs in that scenario.
Western Conference Finals Prediction: Nuggets vs. Lakers
As mentioned, I am really bullish on the Denver Nuggets. Deciding between them and the Blazers was really tough, but the Nuggets’ ceiling is incredibly high if Porter Jr. and Bol perform as I expect. Nikola Jokic is a budding top-5/7 player in my opinion and he’ll only continue to improve alongside a talented supporting cast. I mentioned how it’s nearly impossible to go against LeBron, but it’s also incredibly tough to repeat. I fear that “chalky” predictions never hit, and Lakers/Bucks final is certainly mainstream. I think the Nuggets have the talent to potentially topple the Lakers and to be bold, I’ll opt for the Nuggets here. It makes me super uneasy to do it and part of it is just to be “different”, but I’m a believer in Denver.
Prediction: Nuggets to the NBA Finals (very reluctantly)
Mike’s Playoff Seeding
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Denver Nuggets
- Dallas Mavericks
- Utah Jazz
- Houston Rockets (if Harden stays)
- Phoenix Suns
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Golden State Warriors
- Pelicans (become 9 if Harden leaves)
David’s Playoff Seeding
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Dallas Mavericks
- Denver Nuggets
- Utah Jazz
- Golden State Warriors
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Phoenix Suns
- Houston Rockets
- Memphis Grizzlies
The Chirp 