The NBA Season is officially here and with a late December start, it truly is the most wonderful time of the year. Today, we’re running through our ultimate NBA Season Preview, kicking things off with what should be a much improved Eastern Conference. Stats are courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise stated. Teams are also listed by alphabetical order under each “tier”, with a full playoff prediction present at the end.
The NBA’s Eastern Conference has faced its fair share of criticism and jokes the past several years for its comparative weakness towards the Western Conference, but entering this season, this is probably the most competitive and talented this conference has been in years. My theory of this partially relates to LeBron James, as more teams are willing to go all-in knowing “The King” won’t be waiting for them in the Conference Finals. That’s not to say teams weren’t willing to compete with LeBron in Cleveland/Miami, but teams were a lot more hesitant of gunning for a late playoff berth. Now, that is not as much of a concern, as upstart teams like the Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets, and the revamped Washington Wizards all seem to be heavy competitors for the 8th seed, along with the Orlando Magic. When surveying the Eastern Conference, there are really only three teams you can essentially “count out”: the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, and New York Knicks.
Today, I’ll run through my own predictions and thoughts about each team in the Eastern Conference and at the end, I’ll include my bold predictions/playoff seedings alongside some of our other team members at The Chirp.
Tier 1: The Serious Contenders
Boston Celtics
Last year, my preseason prediction was that the Boston Celtics would hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy, a prediction that was bold and, perhaps predictably, did not work out. While I revised my pick in our pre-Bubble podcast to a Lakers/Celtics Finals with the Lakers winning, I will admit I was incredibly high on the Boston Celtics last season. I anticipated Kemba Walker being a much cleaner fit, both on and off the court, for Boston than Kyrie Irving was, that both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown would take a step forwards, and that Gordon Hayward would be an All-Star selection. While the Hayward prediction was off, I will give myself some credit for hitting on the rest. Entering this season, however, I am lower on Boston than I was last season and before the season resumed in July.
There are two primary reasons for my dampened excitement about Boston: Kemba Walker’s knee injury and the loss of Gordon Hayward. Not having Walker available until January is a much bigger loss for this offense than people realize. While the Celtics have ample scoring on the roster without Walker, they fall into heavy isolation tendencies at times and having ball-movers like Walker (and Hayward) were huge boons to the offense. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that, out of qualifying lineups a season ago, Boston’s best in terms of net rating was one that consisted of Walker, Marcus Smart, Hayward, Jayson Tatum, and Daniel Theis. That lineup not only consists of four good/elite defenders, but they also have three players who are quick ball movers, along with an underrated playmaker in Marcus Smart. I am a big believer in Jayson Tatum and think his ceiling is similar to prime Carmelo Anthony (but a better defender), but he’s not the most creative playmaker for others. The Celtics were +6.1 points per 100 possessions better with Walker on the court last season and his playmaking will be missed.
To compound Walker’s durability concerns (remember, this knee injury flared up prior to the postseason as well), losing Gordon Hayward is a major loss. While Hayward was inconsistent after recovering from his compound leg fracture (as expected), his skillset is incredibly valuable in the modern NBA. Having someone who can create their own shot, make easy reads and function as a strong passer, rebound, defend, and play in transition is an ideal player. While Hayward isn’t elite in any area, he’s a jack-of-all-trades player who makes the team better. The Celtics were +8.5 points per 100 possessions better with Hayward on the court last season, indicating his value. Boston’s depth has been a sore spot for the past few seasons and this off-season, they made few notable upgrades on the wing and lack a logical Hayward replacement. Maybe Romeo Langford takes a leap during his sophomore year, or perhaps rookie Aaron Nesmith earns key rotational minutes, but as of now, who fills Hayward’s role/minutes? I’m a believer in Langford, but he’s a major negative on the offensive end as of now and struggled as a spot-up shooter last season, ranking in the 3rd percentile. It’s tough to envision Langford playing 16+ minutes per game and making a positive impact; I think he eventually can, but it’ll take a substantial leap to make that possible. Aaron Nesmith is a lockdown shooter with the necessary length to potentially be a good defender, but he has a lot of room to grow defensively in terms of technique and strength.
Overall, while I think Boston’s core is still amongst the strongest in the NBA, I believe their roster took a step back entering this season. I’m not sure any player has performed worse since going to Boston under Brad Stevens (perhaps Kyrie, although he was still pretty good on the court), which should give Celtics’ fans plenty of optimism. Jeff Teague is a really good backup guard who’ll be a suitable temporary replacement for Walker and Tristan Thompson has made sense in Boston for a long time. I think this is a really important year for the Celtics. Despite having championship aspirations the past few seasons, things have fallen apart, whether it was the Kyrie Irving drama, the nightmare Game 7 shooting game against the Cavaliers, and more. The Celtics have to prove they can make the NBA Finals with this roster; I don’t expect or think it would be wise to adapt major alterations if they fail to achieve that goal this season, but Danny Ainge is never one to sit idly by and watch opposing teams improve and beat his teams. Boston needs additional depth and shooting to be a title pick for me and while I expect them to finish with right around their normal win total, I think it is a bit optimistic to choose this team coming out of the East.
Brooklyn Nets
I think the consensus pick for most fascinating team in the Eastern Conference would be the Brooklyn Nets, as there’s such an unknown that is surrounding this team. Kevin Durant has looked spry and fully healthy in the preseason and not only will a healthy Durant make the Nets a legitimate title threat, but the NBA is so much better when KD is healthy. I don’t think people “forgot” how lethal Durant can be, but I certainly believe people need to be reminded of how easily he can score 30+. Despite Kyrie Irving’s media antics and rather strange commentary, he quietly had an outstanding season last year. I expect Brooklyn to play extremely fast and shoot a ton of threes this season under new Head Coach Steve Nash (that is awesome), as he thrived in Mike D’Antoni’s scheme and D’Antoni is working under Nash. Irving may be one of the most underappreciated players in the game, primarily due to his personality and decisions (Boston fallout, refusing to talk to the media, forcing his way out of Cleveland, etc.).
While Durant’s health and the fit between him and Kyrie are the biggest storylines, I think the number one priority for Brooklyn this season, outside of winning the title, is doing a roster audit. Right now, I personally am not a huge fan of the players surrounding Irving/Durant from a “fit” standpoint. While the advanced statistics are not particularly kind to Caris LeVert when operating as the P&R ball-handler, his game is best suited to being a creator, not a stand still shooter. While it is dramatic to assume LeVert will primarily be performing as a spot up guy, he ranked in the 29th percentile within that role last season and, for his career, is a 33.9% 3-PT shooter. LeVert seems like a prime player to eventually be traded for a third star, such as James Harden. I think there’s a possibility LeVert functions (and thrives) as a tertiary playmaker in this offense, or as someone who platoons with either Kyrie or KD, but playing him alongside their two stars does not seem to be the most effective way to maximize his skillset.
Another player who may struggle to assimilate in is Spencer Dinwiddie, who has been one of the best 6th men in the NBA over the past several seasons. Dinwiddie is a really good shot creator, but his reputation as a shooter is vastly overrated. Dinwiddie has always been more of a volume scorer (outside of the 2018-19 season) and while he can certainly be a valuable piece off the bench for this team, he also makes plenty of sense as trade bait for another star. Dinwiddie did rank in the 61st percentile as a spot up shooter last season, but he infrequently operated in that capacity. I expect he’ll still get ample opportunities to run the offense or co-pilot it with Kyrie Irving (they were effective when on the court together last season). However, watching Dinwiddie’s adaptation to a new scheme/role will be a key determinant in seeing how far Brooklyn goes.
Overall, it’s hard to look at this Nets roster and not like what you see. For all the hype the Los Angeles Clippers’ roster received entering last season, I’d argue this Brooklyn roster is even better. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are bonafide top-15 players (with Durant easily being top-5), Caris LeVert is an above average wing, Joe Harris is one of the best shooters in the NBA, Jarrett Allen is an elite rim protecting big, and that is all before I added Spencer Dinwiddie, Landry Shamet, Bruce Brown Jr., Taurean Prince, DeAndre Jordan, Jeff Green, and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot to the picture. While I am admittedly much lower on Prince and Jordan than the consensus opinion, so long as they operate in a 16-22 minute capacity, they can be positive pieces for this team. Seeing how quickly this group meshes together and if they mesh together is a valid concern, but from a wholistic point of view, this is possibly the best roster on paper in the NBA. I don’t have the Nets representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals this season, but they’re going to be a scary team for several seasons if this group performs as expected.
Miami Heat
It’s impossible to make a list of “serious contenders” and exclude last year’s NBA Finals representative, but I think many would argue that with a retooled Milwaukee Bucks team and a healthy Brooklyn Nets team, that Miami is, at best, the third best team in the Eastern Conference. On paper, the Heat are a noticeable step behind Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Boston, and perhaps another team or two, but there’s a reason why we don’t award championships based on the depth chart. The biggest advantage Miami holds is their culture. “Heat Culture” is a real thing and man, does Jimmy Butler embody it to a T. Butler is one of my favorite players in the NBA and not only did he validate my consistent take that he was a bonafide superstar who can carry a team, but he proved many doubters wrong along the way. Butler has garnered a bad rep, primarily because of his unceremonious exit from Minnesota. However, despite Butler being cast aside from three different franchises, he’s made the team substantially better everywhere he’s gone. The problem has never been “Jimmy Butler”, but rather, always the team. Finding a group with an elite culture, a criminally underrated head coach, and a place where Butler could be Butler was all he needed.
Miami’s roster entering this season looks fairly similar to their one from last year, with the notable difference being the swap of Jae Crowder for Maurice Harkless. I think Crowder is one of the more overrated players in the NBA; sure, his toughness, attitude, defense, and effort are truly infectious, but he’s far from being an elite 3-and-D player. Crowder shot 44.5% from deep with Miami, a mark that is clearly not sustainable over a season based on historical numbers from a NBA-perspective and from Crowder himself. For reference, Crowder was at 29.3% from deep with Memphis prior to the trade. While Crowder was another guy who perfectly fit with Miami, he’s replaceable, and I would actually argue that Harkless adds greater flexibility. While I’d say Crowder is better overall, Harkless is the superior defender and ranked in the 66th percentile on spot ups with the Clippers last season. He’s more than a suitable replacement for Crowder. The Heat also lost Derrick Jones Jr., who could be a bigger loss than people think. DJJ is known for his unreal hops, but he quietly became a really good defender last season and solid rotational piece. Jones Jr. barely saw postseason time so this is more of a depth hit, but he’s an underrated player. Lastly, adding in Avery Bradley could be an underrated move. I actually think Bradley could quietly fill Jae Crowder’s overall role, albeit he’s a smaller player. Still, Bradley is a tenacious on-ball defender who is a better 3-PT shooter for his career than Crowder is.
As of right now, Miami’s ceiling is entirely dependent on how much improvement we see from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Adebayo took a massive leap last season, going from a high-energy big buried behind Hassan Whiteside to a playmaking five with elite defensive skills. Adebayo really needs to find a consistent 10-12 foot jumper in order to maximize his potential, as Miami rarely ran sets for Adebayo to “pop” for easy shots. The Heat were an elite 3-PT shooting team last season in large part because of Duncan Robinson and the shooting gravity he provides, but losing Jae Crowder’s 44% mark (as unsustainable as it was) may make Miami’s offense take a hit. Adebayo improving his offensive arsenal to be enough of a shooting threat to keep the defense honest will open things up even more. As for Tyler Herro, he quickly became one of NBA Twitter’s favorite players with his moxie on the court. Herro’s snarl has rightfully been enshrined as an iconic meme and NBA Twitter moment of The Bubble. However, I would strongly urge people to pump the brakes on the Tyler Herro hype train. Much of the Herro steam is due to his electric 37 point performance in Game 5 against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, that game is a major anomaly as to who Tyler Herro currently is. While Herro’s ceiling may resemble something close to Devin Booker (I think that’s wildly optimistic), his current level is much closer to potentially being someone to average 16-17 PPG on good splits while adding shot creation. To be fair, that archetype and stat line is very valuable, but is it at an All-Star level? No.
I think a lot of unique factors contributed to Miami’s run and I think their team responded perfectly to the bubble environment in general. However, with a revamped Bucks squad, a healthy Nets team, and the 76ers and Celtics still around, can we really consider the Heat the favorites out of the East? I love Jimmy Butler and am not going to doubt what he can accomplish, especially with Erik Spoelstra pushing the buttons, but this team is a step behind the others in my opinion.
Milwaukee Bucks
It’s been an exciting past few weeks for Bucks’ fans, as not only did Giannis Antetokounmpo sign his supermax contract, but Milwaukee’s team also became noticeably better with the acquisition of Jrue Holiday and a bevy of quality role players. Knowing Giannis is locked in for the next four seasons at minimum is a huge weight of Milwaukee’s shoulders and while there is still significant pressure for this team to at least make the NBA Finals, it’s not a red hot seat because Giannis is fully committed. Truthfully, it’s pretty cool to see a player of Giannis’ caliber opt to remain in a small city and show loyalty to his team.
Last season, Milwaukee’s biggest weakness was their lack of playmaking. As I’ve said repeatedly, I think playmaking is the most overlooked skillset among general managers and front offices; shooting and floor spacing is certainly important, but I don’t think it was a coincidence that the NBA’s best lineup last year in terms of net rating was Oklahoma City’s three guard lineup. Last season, the Bucks ranked 5th in assists per game, but they desperately lacked players who could consistently create their own shot or easy looks for others. It reared its ugly head in the postseason, where Eric Bledsoe has really struggled. When the Miami Heat “built the wall” to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo, the only player consistently able to get himself or someone else a basket was Khris Middleton. The team had a ton of shooters and built an elite offense surrounding Giannis with knockdown guys, but when teams devised a system to stymie Giannis’ ability to drive and physically overpower players, their offense shrank. Jrue Holiday will be a major upgrade in that regard, as not only is he arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA, but he’s a legitimate shot creator and playmaker. For his career, Holiday has averaged 6.4 assists per game and ranked in the 88th percentile in isolation situations last season. While Bledsoe was also elite in isolation situations last year, his turnover rate in those situations was twice as high as Holiday’s.
Another positive impact Holiday could have is in transition, where the Bucks ranked 2nd among all NBA teams in transition frequency. This is a team that loves to play in the open court, primarily because Giannis is the most dominant transition player we have seen in a long time. Holiday was the superior transition player to Bledsoe last season and was more efficient as well. Simply put, adding Holiday’s playmaking and shot creation capabilities, along with added efficiency and a defensive upgrade makes him a perfect fit on this roster. It’s certainly fair to question whether Milwaukee gave up too much for a 30-year old guard who can become a free agent next summer, but they won’t be considering that if they reach their ultimate goal. They weren’t doing that by running last year’s roster back, making this a strong upgrade in the present.
The botched Bogdan Bogdanovic trade is a slight hit to the Bucks, as his playmaking and shot making ability would have been a perfect fit on this roster. Despite the failed move, Milwaukee rebounded rather nicely in my opinion. D.J. Augustin isn’t the defender George Hill was, but he’s a much more natural playmaker and a very good shooter in his own right. Torrey Craig is another elite perimeter defender who is an incredibly valuable player. Although Bobby Portis will never fulfill his ultimate potential and ceiling some people had him at, he’s a stretch big who has shot 36.0% from deep in his career and still has some untapped potential. The Bucks are really thin on depth, but for a coach obsessed with capping his player’s minutes around 30-32, this could force Mike Budenholzer to finally unleash Giannis and Co. more often. Milwaukee has very little frontcourt depth and while Giannis and Brook Lopez soak up the heavy majority of minutes at the five, they could really use an extra body or two. Additionally, the Bucks really lack offensive firepower off the bench and while they’re unlikely to ever have a lineup that doesn’t feature at least one of Middleton, Holiday, or Giannis, this is a small area of concern.
When evaluating this Bucks’ roster, I see a much higher ceiling than the roster trotted out over prior years. Having the 2x MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo makes things easy, but pairing him with Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton may quietly be the best trio of players on any NBA roster. The lack of depth is a concern, but it’s very tough for me to imagine a scenario where this year’s variant of Milwaukee’s roster is worse than prior year’s. Maybe their record takes a drop, but overall, this is a much better team.
Philadelphia 76ers
Last year, I was one of the few who was not on the 76ers hype train entering the year. While Al Horford was a gaudy name known for corralling Giannis Antetokounmpo, the fit was incredibly suspect on Philadelphia’s roster. With Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid as the team’s two best players, it’s an uphill battle trying to win a title while building a roster without ample shooting. Al Horford has always been a solid 3-PT and mid-range shooter, but never a player who camps on the perimeter waiting for set shots in an already condensed court due to Simmons and Embiid’s flaws. Josh Richardson faced a similar challenge. Poor spacing, inconsistent offense, bad P&R defense, and much more plagued the 76ers last season, but a fresh start has arrived. Daryl Morey pulled off a miracle getting Al Horford’s contract off the books, Josh Richardson wasn’t the best fit for the roster, and Doc Rivers, if nothing else, should provide a wealth of experience that could be a huge positive for Simmons and Embiid. From a talent standpoint, Philadelphia clearly regressed this offseason. But, from a fit standpoint? They massively improved. I am incredibly bullish on the 76ers this season and think they could be Milwaukee’s biggest threat in the Eastern Conference.
Last season, the 76ers ran the second fewest frequency of pick-and-roll plays in the NBA. Philadelphia wasn’t particularly effective in those sets according to NBA.com’s database and advanced statistics, but with a less crowded court, I think there’s a lot of potential here. In theory, a Simmons/Embiid pick-and-roll seems tough to defend, but add in the shooting gravity and capability of Seth Curry, Danny Green, and Tobias Harris, it could be really difficult to stop. The Clippers were 4th in pick-and-roll frequency last season and Doc Rivers has already been on record saying he expects Philly to run more P&R sets. I think that’s an interesting idea worth exploring. The added shooting of Curry and Green should be a major boost for this team as well, as the floor spacing will be substantially better. Giving Embiid more room to operate will be very helpful, but I think it could have the greatest impact for Ben Simmons. When Embiid suffered the facial fracture a few seasons ago, the 76ers ripped off an epic winning streak in large part because Simmons was constantly surrounded by shooters. I sincerely hope the Sixers consider playing a small lineup with Simmons at the five and surround him with Curry, Green, Tyrese Maxey/Matisse Thybulle, and Tobias Harris at times. That unit can very well run opposing teams off the court due to Simmons’ elite court vision, coast-to-coast ability, and the defensive versatility of that lineup.
While I am extremely high on the 76ers, the question marks that I believe exist for this team are much more prevalent and damaging than issues I see in other teams. The biggest concern is a massive one for Philadelphia: who runs the half-court offense? Many Sixers’ fans are eager to point out how close they were to reaching the Eastern Conference Finals two years ago, but that was when Jimmy Butler was clearly Philadelphia’s best player in the postseason. Butler put on a clinic of how to orchestrate a half-court offense and really steadied Philadelphia. Consistently throughout his career, Simmons has been schemed out of games in the postseason. When he’s aggressive, I think Simmons might possibly be a top-12 player in the NBA, but the problem is he’s only really assertive 70-80% of the time. Simmons’ inability to shoot really hampers him in a slower, half-court game, something postseason showings usually yield. The 76ers don’t have a capable shot creator or playmaker who can be that guy in the postseason; Seth Curry can do it in spurts, but he’s by no means close to being a guy you want as the primary half-court offense initiator. This is a major problem for Philadelphia and until they figure out that role, I anticipate them continuing to fall short of the NBA Finals.
Another concern I have for Philadelphia is their depth. While Philadelphia is a bit deeper than Milwaukee, they’re significantly less top-heavy. The 76ers have a great projected starting five of Green, Curry, Simmons, Harris, and Embiid, but they’ll be relying heavily on Shake Milton, Tyrese Maxey, Matisse Thybulle, and perhaps Terrance Ferguson for key rotational minutes. I’m a huge fan of Thybulle and like Maxey too, but Milton was someone who got really hot in stretches and emerged out of nowhere. All of these guys are pretty unproven at the NBA level over the course of a season (aside from Thybulle and Ferguson, who are both limited offensively), and considering the lack of playmaking apparent on this roster, it really is a gaping hole.
Admittedly, I am higher on the 76ers this year than last year, but they’re still a playmaker or two away from cracking the NBA Finals in my opinion. Daryl Morey will certainly be aggressive to upgrade the roster, with a potential James Harden deal on the horizon. However, until that playmaker comes to Philly, they’ll still have a noticeable flaw they have yet to be able to rectify since Jimmy Butler was unnecessarily shown the door last summer.
Tier 2: Really Good, But Not Top Tier
Toronto Raptors
One coach I greatly admire in the NBA is Nick Nurse. Nurse’s humble beginnings are really inspiring, but his willingness to get weird has always stood out to me in a good way. With sports in general, I think a flaw we often see with coaching staffs is they’d rather lose doing things “traditionally” rather than trying something bold. There’s greater risk in doing something bold as it could flame out in miraculous fashion, but being innovative is also the way to stay ahead. Nurse is never afraid to go out of the box and he’s been very successful doing so.
My admiration for Nurse is well-documented, but it’s tough to feel as confident about Toronto entering this season as in year’s past. While Marc Gasol seemed sluggish in The Bubble, he was a valuable big for them the past few seasons. He helped bring a title to Toronto and is still a good passer and interior defender. Losing him and Serge Ibaka, who was arguably Toronto’s best big man against the Boston Celtics, are massive losses. Aron Baynes had a career-year last season and some may argue is currently better than Marc Gasol, but Baynes’ rapid development is new. Baynes has become a good 3-PT shooter, but I’d like to see him do it again before I’m fully sold. Chris Boucher is a prime breakout candidate due to his impressive combination of shot-blocking and 3-PT skills, but he’s still raw and is prone to fouling. Replacing Ibaka and Gasol is not an easy task and while I have faith in Nurse, and am really excited about Boucher in particular, it’s reasonable to expect a small step backwards for the Raptors.
With that being said, there’s still plenty to like. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet combine to form one of the better backcourts in the NBA and Lowry seems to be getting better with age. Pascal Siakam has taken massive leaps forward each of the past two seasons and while he was exposed a bit by Boston in the postseason, he’s a tireless worker who still has plenty of room to grow. Toronto quietly had a strong bench last season and that unit will include potential 6th Man of the Year Candidate Norman Powell, along with Terence Davis and DeAndre Bembry. Oh, and I didn’t even mention OG Anunoby, who seems primed for a bit of a breakout season. Toronto’s roster may have taken a step back, but you’d be foolish to bet against this team. Every year it seems people are eager to predict Toronto’s decline, yet it never comes. One outstanding factor is Toronto’s temporary relocation to Tampa Bay. That will surely be a pretty sizeable emotional challenge and really uproots a lot of player’s lives. It’s something to monitor, but also something impossible to measure the potential impact entering the season. I think they are safely in that second tier of not being a title threat, but pretty confidently in the postseason.
Tier 3: On the Border
Atlanta Hawks
Trading Luka Doncic’s draft rights will forever be a tough pill for the Atlanta Hawks to swallow, but Trae Young has established himself as a budding star and is a fantastic player in his own right. Young certainly has some Steph Curry in his game because of his limitless range and deadeye accuracy, but I think it’s optimistic thinking to imagine Young hitting Curry’s level. Still, Young seems well on the path to stardom and is a perfect player to build around. I’m not sure a team has improved their roster more on paper over the past six weeks than the Atlanta Hawks, but Young’s progression will be a major determinant in how big of a leap this new-look team can take.
Last season, Atlanta’s defense was absolutely atrocious and the Hawks made noticeable improvements to shore it up, namely two big men in Clint Capela and rookie Onyeka Okongwu. I’m a huge fan of Okongwu and think Atlanta got a potential steal at #6, but I am a bit skeptical on Clint Capela’s fit in Atlanta. There’s no denying Capela’s rim-protecting capabilities, but his game is fairly limited. On offense, he’s strictly a vertical spacer and roll-man, and his impact as a roller is a tad overrated (he ranked in the 52nd percentile in that role). Atlanta ran P&R at the third highest frequency in the NBA last season and incorporated the roll-man at the third highest rate as well, making there be a logical spot for Capela’s skillset on this roster. However, Capela slotting in as the starting five is likely to push John Collins into more of a perimeter role, something I am not a fan of. While Collins 3-PT shooting has improved, his skillset is not suited to stand around the perimeter as a floor spacing. At his best offensively, Collins serves as the roll-man and in the dunker spot while operating in pick-and-pops as well. Collins was in the 82nd percentile as the roll-man last season, averaging 1.31 PPP with an effective field goal percentage of 68.2%. By contrast, Capela averaged 1.10 PPP with an effective field goal percentage of 63.1%. Transitioning Collins away from his greatest offensive strength in place of an inferior player is not a winning formula. I get the benefit of Capela’s defense, but I worry the fit could quickly get clunky.
One way Atlanta has aimed to combat this potentially clunky fit is adding an influx of shooting and playmaking. The Hawks were the worst spot-up shooting team in the NBA last season, something they hope will be remedied by the acquisitions of Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Danilo Gallinari had an EFG% of 54.8% while ranking in the 77th percentile on spot-ups last season, while Bogdanovic had an EFG% of 54.3% and ranked in the 66th percentile. Both players are really effective shooters and scorers and Bogdanovic adds some sorely needed secondary playmaking ability as well. The Hawks had some solid guys surrounding Young a year ago with Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, and Cam Reddish, but outside of Huerter, both Hunter and Reddish were, at best, just ok spot-up guys. It would be unwise to rush towards a definitive judgment on Hunter and Reddish’s future outlook after their rookie season, but neither had a particularly impressive one, although Reddish did finish strong. Atlanta certainly succeeded in bolstering the supporting cast alongside Young, particularly on the wing. Rajon Rondo is an ideal backup point guard to provide a veteran presence with playoff experience, although Rondo’s on-court impact is incredibly volatile. Kris Dunn was one of the most underrated acquisitions of the off-season as he’s one of the premier perimeter defenders in the NBA. On paper, Atlanta might be the deepest team in the NBA and I’d even argue they have a top six roster in the Eastern Conference.
However, like I mentioned with the Miami Heat, we don’t decide playoff berths or championships by the depth chart. So many other things come into play, like coaching, chemistry, experience, and more. It’s why, despite having an arguably inferior roster, I think the Toronto Raptors are a clear step up from the Atlanta Hawks. Simply put, Trae Young has never engineered a winning, or even particularly good, basketball team. That is not at all attempting to discredit him as a player or what he’s accomplished, but it’s a major reason why Atlanta isn’t a team I’m penciling into a postseason berth. Having the improved shooting and talent around him will help, but Atlanta’s defense figures to remain awful.
Lastly, with a shortened training camp and slightly condensed season, for a team experiencing this much turnover, how quickly will they find proper chemistry? The only key rotational guys who remain are Trae Young, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish, and De’Andre Hunter, and I think it’s rather unlikely they all see the court together this season. This may come across as a ticky tack critique, but as we saw from the Los Angeles Clippers last season, chemistry matters. Atlanta’s roster screams a bit too much of “throwing a bunch of talented guys together and hope it sticks” rather than aiming to build a cohesive group over time. Their timeline has been accelerated because of Trae Young’s game, but I worry they might’ve gotten a bit too aggressive. The frontcourt fit of Gallinari, Collins, and Capela is sure to be awkward, the team is relying on Rondo, Huerter, Hunter, and Reddish to provide valuable bench minutes, and there’s really only 3-5 reliable defenders on the team, and many likely won’t play substantial minutes. There’s a lot of upside and talent here, but I’m a bit skeptical on how this all meshes together.
Indiana Pacers
Truthfully, the Indiana Pacers are probably too good to be in this tier, but I included them simply because of the uncertainty swirling around this team. There’s been a lot of smoke surrounding Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner’s futures with the Pacers and it seems like things are headed towards a retooling period. Oladipo’s quad injury was such an unfortunate event, as it significantly hampered his progression and that of the Pacers. I think everyone should be a bit more patient regarding Oladipo’s game before hastily declaring him to have taken a step back, but a lot of this team’s potential hinges on his recovery. A starting five of Malcolm Brogdon, Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner is incredibly intriguing, but we’ve never really been able to see it. The Sabonis/Turner frontcourt pairing is clunky at best and has never really succeeded, Oladipo’s future is in question, and who knows how sustainable T.J. Warren’s breakout in The Bubble is. Lots of questions in Indiana and they fired Nate McMillan, who did an excellent job over his tenure in my opinion.
As mentioned, the Pacers in all reality are too good for this tier. Yet, I still get a bit anxious slotting them automatically into a postseason spot. First, the team’s style is quite antiquated, as Indiana is reliant on 2-PT field goals and doesn’t have a ton of elite shooting. Doug McDermott certainly qualifies as an elite shooter, but who else on the roster holds that distinction? Malcolm Brogdon was not good from behind the arc last season, which was a possible anomaly, but Oladipo was also below average. Maybe Warren can sustain his torrid shooting from the summer and Justin Holiday can be a nice marksman, but there needs to be a revamp of their style to better resemble the modern game. Indiana had the highest frequency of plays in the NBA utilizing the roller in P&R situations, yet finished in the 31st percentile on those sets. Admittedly, it made up a small portion of their overall sets, but it’s still an inefficient form of offense. On the contrary, Indiana ranked in the lower half in spot-ups, yet was in the 66th percentile. The Pacers need to better embrace the modern game and, if Malcolm Brogdon rediscovers his form and we give Oladipo a chance to at least get his legs underneath him before declaring him as a declining player, the Pacers would be well suited to do that. I’m not sure how their new coaching staff is planning to tweak their sets and that determination and deployment of personnel could vastly change my opinion on this team.
Overall, I like the Pacers. They have an awesome uniform set (one of the most underrated in the league), incredible fans, and a ton of guys who are super easy to root for. This is a team synonymous with playing hard and overachieving and it’s nearly impossible not to admire Oladipo. However, this is a huge crossroads year, as Oladipo hits free agency this summer and rumors have constantly swirled about his future. The Pacers have been a great, overachieving regular season team ever since Paul George left, but they haven’t made much postseason noise the past two seasons. Now, I’d argue that is unlucky and unfair, since Oladipo was out in 2019 and recovering in 2020, plus Sabonis was out for 2020 as well. However, I think part of the reason McMillan was fired was because of the lack of postseason success. It’s a make-or-break season in terms of the Pacers’ roster as currently constructed. The depth chart is incredibly thin behind Sabonis/Turner, but their bench was amongst the best in the NBA last season in terms of +/-. Lots of questions are present in Indiana and while I’m rooting for them and think they deserve a fair shot before resetting, this is a major year.
Washington Wizards
It seems easy to forget, but entering the NBA Restart, the Washington Wizards were actually the 9th seed in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards weren’t a particularly good team, but they were fairly competitive last season. Washington had the 2nd worst defensive rating in the league last season, but if their defense was just mediocre, they likely would’ve given the Orlando Magic a serious run for their money for the 8th seed.
The biggest news about the Wizards surrounds their John Wall/Russell Westbrook swap. Wall has looked really good in the preseason, but even if he wasn’t coming off a torn Achilles (and he hasn’t played in two years), Westbrook is still the superior player. In my opinion, Westbrook is the toughest player to judge in the NBA. On the one hand, he’s one of the most fiery competitors in the league and I’m not sure there’s many guys I’d rather want to go to war with than Westbrook. He’s a stat-sheet stuffer, is still a very explosive athlete, and can be a go-to guy as well. The problem is he is wildly inefficient and at times, a complete liability on the court. Often in the postseason we saw Westbrook function wildly out of control with the ball in his hands, moving at 200 MPH without even attempting to process what was happening in the game. That’s the trade-off you have to live with regarding Westbrook, but despite his glaring flaws, he’s still a top-50 NBA player and makes the Wizards much better. I actually really like the Westbrook/Beal fit and think it has the potential to be a great pairing.
Westbrook’s presence on this team immediately elevates them to postseason contention, but the Wizards will definitely need someone else to step up outside of Westbrook/Beal to be a threat. Bradley Beal established himself as a top-25 player (closer to top-20) in the NBA last season, giving the Wizards two stars in tow. Davis Bertans was one of the best 3-PT shooters last year and was a major reason why Washington was around league average in offensive rating despite being thing on scoring. Rui Hachimura showed a lot of promise his rookie season, but he’ll be out the first few weeks due to an injury. Hachimura’s absence is huge for this team, as he’s arguably the 4th best player. Deni Avdija was Washington’s 9th overall pick this year and is a league-ready, playmaking wing who slots in nicely as well.
However, the Wizards will need big years from two players in particular to fortify the main rotation: Troy Brown Jr. and Thomas Bryant. I am all aboard the Troy Brown Jr. hype train and think he’s one of the most underrated young forwards in the game. While not a great shooter, Brown is an intriguing playmaker with some defensive chops. Brown needs to become a more efficient scorer, but he’s an elite finisher around the rim and was in the 55th percentile as a cutter last season. I’m expecting him to occupy an off-ball role and his value could really explode if he’s able to thrive alongside Westbrook by attacking the rim off Westbrook drives. Thomas Bryant is an intriguing player because of his rim protection and 3-PT game. Bryant shot 40.7% from 3-PT range while blocking 1.1 shots per game last season. He has a valuable skillset, but he’s best as a rotational big, not a bonafide starter. While Washington’s wing and backcourt depth leaves a bit to be desired, they have a solid rotation in the frontcourt. If Bryant can produce in 24-28 minutes per night, that’ll be huge for a Wizards team gunning for a playoff berth.
Tier 4: They’ve Got a Shot, But Are Underdogs
Charlotte Hornets
Here’s a preseason overreaction for you: I think LaMelo Ball may be on the top-20 most exciting players list. Ball’s passing ability is absurd; he sees things that many normal NBA players don’t, let alone casual fans watching from home. Ball is so much fun to watch and, while this is a major overreaction in the heat of the moment, I think he’s going to be a guy the Timberwolves and Warriors (to a lesser extent) regret passing on. Ball’s playmaking is sure to elevate the production and effectiveness of a variety of Charlotte’s role players, with Miles Bridges seeming to be one primary beneficiary.
The Hornets were not very good last season, but with the acquisitions of Ball and Gordon Hayward, Charlotte should be vastly improved. Devonte’ Graham had a sensational, breakout performance last season, P.J. Washington had a strong rookie season, and although his contract is “scary”, Terry Rozier is still a solid NBA player. Add in Cody Zeller, Caleb & Cody Martin, Bismack Biyombo, and Malik Monk, and I ask: why not the Hornets? I’m very high on this team, as Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington I believe are prime candidates to take substantial step forwards with a playmaker like Ball on the roster. Charlotte was absolutely horrible in transition last year (2nd worst team in the NBA by PPP), but they should be much improved in that area with Ball and Hayward. I could picture Bridges taking a sizeable leap in his effectiveness in the open floor as well. There’s a lot of buzz in Charlotte (excuse the pun), but I think a lot of people are overlooking the Hornets. Their backcourt of Ball, Rozier, and Graham is slightly above average, they have ample wing depth in Hayward, Bridges, and the Martin twins, and P.J. Washington is a combo forward who shot 37.4% from deep last season while having a steal and block percentage both above 1.5%. Buy stock now in P.J. Washington and Charlotte, I am very high on this team.
Chicago Bulls
Every year, it seems like a lot of us are enamored by the Chicago Bulls’ roster, yet every season, they seem to disappoint. Things could be changing in the Windy City, however, as finally the old front office and Jim Boylen are gone. Billy Donovan is the reigning co-Coach of the Year and should be a positive impact on all the players in Chicago. Jim Boylen was, frankly, not a good NBA coach. While Donovan did not make the proper adjustments in their playoff series against the Houston Rockets, for him to have the Oklahoma City taking Houston to seven games was incredibly impressive. The Bulls hit a home-run with this hire and he should begin to institute a better culture and team performance as well.
When evaluating Chicago’s roster, there’s no shortage of talent. Zach LaVine is one of the more underrated players in the NBA whose efficiency has begun to catch up with his scoring. Wendell Carter Jr. is a really talented defender who, with a system better tailored to his skillset, could be a breakout candidate. Lauri Markkanen took a huge step back last season, but the idea of a 3-PT shooting big who can rebound is still really intriguing. Add in Coby White, who has microwave scoring potential, Otto Porter Jr., and the 4th overall pick Patrick Williams, and man is there a lot of talent here. The biggest challenge comes with everyone meshing together and running a cohesive offense. The Bulls do not currently have a starting-caliber floor general on the roster, something that is a cause for concern. LaVine and White can create their own shots, but neither is the best at creating looks for others. Oklahoma City had the 3rd highest frequency of isolation plays last season, meaning there is certainly an opportunity for Chicago’s current roster combination to succeed under a Billy Donovan scheme. However, I am a bit skeptical that, A) heavy isolation ball with Chicago’s roster will be successful and, B) heavy isolation ball is truly a winning formula.
In all honesty, the Bulls are likely another piece or two away from being a serious playoff threat. Under Billy Donovan, they should be trending up and I think they are at least playing ball this season. Adding in a true point guard will help, but the progression of Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. really determines this team’s ceiling. If Carter Jr. can somewhat live up to the lofty Al Horford comparison he was tagged with, while Markkanen capably fills in as a floor spacing big who can hit 37-38% of his threes, I think the Bulls have a shot at being a really good team. The NBA is at its best when the Bulls are good and the United Center is rocking; while the second part is unlikely to be possible until at least the 2021-2022 season, here’s hoping Chicago gets good soon.
Orlando Magic
The one thing that is really striking to me about the Orlando Magic is how poorly their roster has been constructed over the past few seasons. General Manager John Hammond clearly has a type: athletic, long wings with an unrefined offensive game. Hammond bets on upside and wingspans more than any front office executive possibly in league history and while he has a massive hit in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and other solid picks, his job at properly building a complete roster in Orlando has fallen a bit flat in my opinion. The Magic clearly have a surplus of those rangy forwards/bigs we mentioned, including Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, Al-Farouq Aminu, Chuma Okeke, and Mo Bamba. The Magic also, until recently, had Melvin Frazier and Wes Iwundu as well. Yet, Orlando’s biggest weakness for the past few seasons has been the lack of perimeter shooting and shot creation. Despite numerous opportunities to make a move and to solve the logjam at the wing spot, John Hammond has refrained from adding the obvious missing piece. Instead, Orlando opted for another long, athletic guard with an unrefined offensive game in Markelle Fultz. I like Fultz’s game, but just continuing to add the same general type of player isn’t a winning strategy.
With all this being said, the Magic have made back-to-back postseason appearances and have to be considered, at the very least, a threat to make it again. However, count me as skeptical they’ll be able to pull it off. Jonathan Isaac will likely be out for the year with a torn ACL and not only is Isaac a legitimate top-10 defender in the NBA, but he may have had an outside case to be the Magic’s best overall player. No disrespect to Nikola Vucevic, but Isaac was really on an upwards trajectory before the injury. While Isaac’s absence will likely slot Aaron Gordon back in his natural power forward role, it seems like Gordon is capped in Orlando. Very smart NBA writers have been clamoring for Gordon to get a fresh start elsewhere and I agree; he does so many things well, including functioning as a short-roll playmaker, yet Orlando’s system prohibits him from playing to his strengths. Throw Gordon in Minnesota (people have been hoping for this for months), and he becomes a budding star. In Orlando, we’ll forever be wanting more. I really like Chuma Okeke’s potential in his de facto rookie season, but is he a difference maker right away? Probably not, and same goes for Cole Anthony, a player who finally addresses the playmaking/shot creation need. This is a Magic team way too reliant on Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic to manufacture buckets, something that just simply isn’t a winning formula. The upside is intriguing with all the length and, in theory, they could be a dominant defensive team. But, that theory has never come close to reigning true, and so long as their offense remains horrible from deep, possesses little shot creation, and has multiple non-shooters playing key minutes, the Magic will continue to run on the Mark Cuban-termed “mediocrity treadmill”.
Tier 5: Building for the Future, Wait a Year (Or More)
Cleveland Cavaliers
When evaluating the Cleveland Cavaliers, I get a feeling of confusion, yet also optimism. I’m not particularly sure what they are doing with Kevin Love and Andre Drummond. I’m not sure how either player benefits from that pairing and while, in theory, having a player like Drummond could make Cleveland better, I think he’s wildly overrated. Drummond’s best skill is rebounding and while he’s elite in that area, he’s rather average or below average in the key skills modern NBA players need, like versatility, perimeter play, shooting, and playmaking ability. With Drummond and Love, the Cavaliers have two fairly slow-footed bigs who will struggle defensively. This is not good news for a team that finished dead last in defensive rating a year ago.
While I don’t get Cleveland’s frontcourt vision, I do think there’s some hope with their roster as a whole. Collin Sexton was phenomenal when 2020 struck and if he can keep the momentum going, they’re going to have a really good player. Sexton’s game reminds me a bit of C.J. McCollum and while I’m not sure he’ll ever get the proper recognition playing in a small market on a losing team, Sexton is one of the more underrated players in the league. I was a huge fan of his entering the 2018 NBA Draft and love his competitiveness as well. Darius Garland struggled his rookie season, which was expected after missing the majority of his freshman year due to injury. I’m interested in seeing how Garland develops, but the fit alongside Sexton is sure to be a defensive nightmare for years. Kevin Porter Jr. showed some promise as a rookie and I think Isaac Okoro was the perfect fit for the roster. Plus, Dylan Windler missed all of last season with a foot injury and when healthy, he figures to be a prolific floor spacer. The Cavaliers have something building in their backcourt, but the frontcourt is a major area for concern. Considering what Cleveland was left with after LeBron James and Kyrie Irving departed, I’d say their rebuild is going fine, albeit slowly. A big year from Sexton, Okoro, and having one of Porter/Garland/Windler taking a leap will really excite people in Ohio.
Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons have quickly facilitated a rebuild, in large part because of Blake Griffin’s debilitating knee injury. Just two seasons ago, Detroit snuck into the postseason as the 8th seed in Dwayne Casey’s first season and Blake Griffin was playing at a near MVP level. Now, Griffin’s knees looked absolutely shot last season during his incredibly poor campaign and it’s safe to wonder how healthy he truly is. No longer is Griffin the feared, high-flying big who can posterize you into the GIF hall of fame any given play. If healthy, Griffin is a really refined playmaking big who has developed into a capable 3-PT shooter as well. I’m not sure what his future holds, but after his current contract expires, I anticipate him adapting a la Paul Millsap and signing with a contending team in a smaller role.
Detroit has had a really confusing off-season under new GM Troy Weaver. Weaver has a great reputation as a talent evaluator, but it’s fair to question his decision to let talented, young big Christian Wood walk and trade away Bruce Brown for an inferior player in Dzanan Musa. Detroit rapidly got worse this off-season, but then tried to remain competitive it seemed by signing Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee in free agency. I really like both players, but what’s the end game here for Detroit? Grant is at his best in a supplemental role on a contending team, where he functions as a terrific team (and individual) defender with a capable 3-PT shot, while Plumlee is a phenomenal playmaking five who doesn’t give you a ton of stat production. Adding good players is smart, but when you’re not actively aiming to compete, Detroit would’ve been better off bringing back Wood, keeping Brown, and using their excess cap space to absorb bad contracts with extra draft assets. I really liked the draft selection of Killian Hayes, plus Saddiq Bey was a great pick as well. There was some things I liked, some I hated from Detroit this off-season making it really tough to gauge. One thing I’m not uncertain on? This team will likely be pretty bad this season.
New York Knicks
The New York Knicks have officially entered into what I call the “Tom Thibodeau” cycle. The cycle is simple: a team hires Thibs, they experience some early success, players get run down and exhausted from playing 36+ minutes every night, players get fed up with Thibs and began to underperform, and he gets fired. It happens consistently everywhere he’s been and while he may still be a good coach, he’s not a particularly adaptable head coach. For a young team that is sure to go through growing pains, I just don’t really get this hire. Then again, the Knicks have been incompetent for the better part of 15-20 years, but moves like this are a reason why. This isn’t supposed to come across as me knocking Thibs, but from a team/coach fit standpoint, this makes zero sense. I could see a fringe playoff team hiring Thibs to hopefully put them over the top.
When evaluating New York’s roster, it’s fairly evident that this team is lacking a long-term vision. I’ll cut Leon Rose plenty of slack as he just took over the role, but he’s not left starting with much. I think R.J. Barrett’s ceiling is DeMar DeRozan and I actually think this is a reasonable comparison. I’m not sold on Barrett ever becoming that good, but he shares a lot of similarities. Rookie Obi Toppin will be a ton of fun to watch with his elite bounce and dynamic offensive game and I’d argue he may be their best long-term asset. But, what are the other key building blocks on the roster? Mitchell Robinson is a per minute monster who is a defensive menace around the rim, but traditionally, we see players in Robinson’s mold average 16-20 minutes for winning teams and play a limited role. Robinson has plenty of time to outgrow his current “archetype”, but we’ll need to see some growth in terms of maybe some pick-and-pop ability and more consistent perimeter defensive work. Dennis Smith Jr. has unfortunately quickly regressed since leaving Dallas during the Kristaps Porzingis trade, Frank Ntilikina has been wildly mismanaged since being drafted, and Kevin Knox has really struggled at the NBA level. The Knicks will always have the big city allure to go along with Madison Square Garden to potentially attract free agents, but this is a franchise that cannot afford to just wait and hope that a star will eventually choose the Knicks. This strategy has failed time and time again for teams that go this route. Let’s see what Leon Rose will be able to do within the next few seasons, but as of now, Knicks fans should be rooting for a big year from R.J. Barrett and Obi Toppin, for Julius Randle to boost his trade value, and for one of DSJ/Ntilikina/Knox to take a substantial leap forward. If all of those boxes are checked, then consider this a successful year.
Playoff Seeding & Predictions
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Brooklyn Nets
- Miami Heat
- Boston Celtics
- Toronto Raptors
- Indiana Pacers
- Washington Wizards
- Charlotte Hornets
- Atlanta Hawks
- Orlando Magic
- Chicago Bulls
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Detroit Pistons
- New York Knicks
Playoff Predictions
Wizards OVER Hornets in Play-In Game
I am extremely bullish on the Charlotte Hornets for a lot of the reasons listed above. Overall, I think the battle for 8/9 will be really tight, but it’s tough for me to go against a team that has the most star power in the Washington Wizards. They may be thin on depth, but I’m really struggling to see how a team that features a backcourt of Westbrook/Beal misses the postseason. Both are top-30/35 players (at worst, with Beal being inside top-25 at worst) and they have enough talent surrounding those two to be a dangerous team. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington even finished 7th. The Hornets will certainly surprise some people being here, but the Atlanta Hawks’ roster fit is extremely questionable in my opinion. I think they may be the typical team everybody is ready to anoint as the trendy postseason pick because they won the off-season on paper. I’m all for the Trae Young hype, but I’m not all for the Atlanta Hawks hype. I actually am a huge Bogdan Bogdanovic fan as well and think that was clearly Atlanta’s best move, but until they prove the frontcourt grouping of Gallinari, Collins, and Capela can all effectively coexist, I’ll refrain from having them too high.
Eastern Conference Finals Prediction: Bucks vs. Sixers
It’s surely surprising to see Philadelphia here, but this roster fits together so nicely and they still have elite star power. So long as the 76ers can avoid Boston (which they do in my predictions), then I think they have a great shot to make another Conference Finals appearance. As for the Milwaukee Bucks, this team’s ceiling is vastly higher because of Jrue Holiday and the improved supporting cast/playmaking ability. George Hill and Eric Bledsoe are noticeable losses, plus Wesley Matthews was solid for the Bucks too. However, Jrue Holiday, D.J. Augustin, and Torrey Craig I would argue are all better players, plus Milwaukee added Bryn Forbes and Bobby Portis as well. I think this is finally the year the Bucks break through.
Prediction: Bucks to the NBA Finals
Mike’s Playoff Seeding
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Miami Heat
- Brooklyn Nets
- Boston Celtics
- Toronto Raptors
- Washington Wizards
- Atlanta Hawks
- Indiana Pacers (lose play-in game)
David’s Playoff Seeding
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Miami Heat
- Brooklyn Nets
- Boston Celtics
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Toronto Raptors
- Indiana Pacers
- Atlanta Hawks
- Washington Wizards (lose play-in game)
The Chirp 