Welcome to The Chirp’s Friday NFL Notebook, where we’ll be breaking down some interesting topics to cover as we enter a high-stakes Week 15. With playoff pushes in full swing, we’ll be delivering the content you do not want to miss with unique insights as well.
Chaos: that is a succinct description of what the final three weeks of the NFL regular season are likely to bring. Frankly, this entire season has been chaotic with COVID cancellations and schedule alterations, insane finishes, surprise teams, and ultimately, a fairly entertaining 2020 NFL Season. Yet, like any NFL season, the first 14 weeks have set the table for the final three weeks to be a heck of a main course.
In the AFC, we still have six teams fighting for four spots: Indianapolis/Tennessee are both likely to take two of those spots, with one being the division winner. However, the final two spots will be a fight between the Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and Las Vegas Raiders. In the NFC, while things are a bit clearer, there is still plenty of uncertainty. Tampa Bay’s victory over Minnesota a week ago rose their playoff probability to around 95%, but the 7th seed and NFC East title are both up for grabs. Washington, New York, and even Philadelphia/Dallas are all still in contention for a free playoff berth, while Arizona, Chicago, and Minnesota are fighting for the final Wild Card spot. This weekend, we have a massive game between the Bears and Vikings along with a battle of the birds in the desert. What a fun weekend ahead: let’s break it down.
Who Emerges from the Cluttered AFC?
The AFC Playoff Picture is incredibly cluttered and trying to discern who should truly emerge from this crowded house is a tricky situation. While Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Cleveland all seem safe due to their one game cushion, things could quickly change. For argument’s sake, we are going to count all teams as playoff locks, as realistically, if each team wins at least one more game, they’re all going to be in. Considering Tennessee gets Detroit without Matthew Stafford this weekend, Indianapolis still gets Jacksonville, and Cleveland gets the Jets, that seems like a reasonable expectation. That essentially means that three teams are fighting for one spot. Let’s analyze them one-by-one:
Miami Dolphins
Without a doubt, the Miami Dolphins have been the most pleasant surprise in the NFL this season. While some people will point towards the Browns as winners of that mantra, this is a Dolphins team that many were discussing as being the worst in NFL history just 16 months ago; now, they control their own destiny for being a playoff team. Brian Flores has done a terrific job in Miami and while Mike Tomlin and Kevin Stefanski seem more likely to bring home Coach of the Year, I’d make the argument for Flores. Miami’s roster has significantly less talent than Pittsburgh and Cleveland’s yet, I think the Dolphins would put up a good fight at minimum with either team on a neutral field.
Miami’s playoff path is simple: win three straight and they’re in. The problem is, well, it isn’t so simple to win three straight games. Miami has the 8th toughest schedule remaining, which is a stark difference to Las Vegas (7th easiest) and Baltimore (easiest). While the Dolphins could win out, it’ll be difficult. A weekend visit from the New England Patriots is a pivotal game, as Miami got dominated by the Patriots Week 1. We know that so long as New England remains competitive early in a game, they’re a difficult team to beat due to their effective rushing attack. Miami’s run defense struggled early on this season, but over the past six weeks, Warren Sharp’s statistics indicate they have been the 4th best run defense in terms of opponents’ rush play success. Miami hasn’t faced a particular scary rushing offense since then, making this a big test to see how real Miami’s improvement has been.
However, the truth is that Miami’s defense has been outstanding this year and cornerback Xavien Howard, who currently leads the NFL in interceptions, does not get enough credit. Miami’s defense ranks 11th in defensive DVOA and since their bye week, have allowed 20+ points in just 43% of their games. The real concern with the Dolphins lies with their offense, which has been extremely sluggish since Tua Tagovailoa became the starting quarterback. Since Tua has taken over, the Dolphins have had 11 scoring drives go 50 yards or more in six games. That is… well, not great. By comparison, in the past six games, the New York Jets have had 13 scoring drives go 50 yards or more. The Dolphins have yet to show established consistency in having a longer touchdown drive; essentially, this is a team that has been very reliant on their elite defense to make a play for opportunistic field position. If not, then Miami struggles to score. Remember, this a Dolphins team that accumulated 145 total yards against the Los Angeles Rams and won. In Tua’s six starts, the Dolphins have averaged 288.8 yards per game. While they have done better the past two weeks (386.5 yards per game), this offense lacks serious explosion and with new injuries to DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, it’s tough to imagine things improving. With their lackluster offense combined with a difficult final stretch, while Miami controls their own destiny, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they don’t need some help to get in.
Baltimore Ravens
Currently, the Ravens are tied with the Miami Dolphins for the 7th seed but due to tiebreakers, Miami has the edge. Our metric has been extremely favorable to both teams all year long (Miami is 4th overall season-long, Baltimore is 5th), but over the past six weeks, it has skewed favorably towards Miami. This is in large part due to Baltimore’s recent struggles, although they are misleading without additional context. Baltimore struggled in a road game against New England and trailed by two possessions against Pittsburgh, although the Steelers game they were missing 20+ players due to COVID-19 and arguably should have won. The Ravens are 8-5 on the year, but their five losses have come against Kansas City, New England, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh (x2). According to our metric, the Ravens easily could have won two of those games (first Pittsburgh game and Tennessee game), and if they did, Baltimore would be 10-3.
Despite Baltimore’s slightly misleading record, there are a lot of things also working against the Ravens down the stretch. While they have the easiest remaining schedule, their team has been decimated, from injuries to COVID recoveries, and more. The Ravens just added three receivers to the COVID list, they lost standout tackle Ronnie Stanley for the season, have seen multiple defensive linemen battle injuries and recover from COVID, and their once stout secondary has been extremely banged up as well. Because Baltimore has faced such injuries and difficult situations to their positional groups of strength, some of their weaknesses have been exacerbated, including their linebacking corps and receivers. Lamar Jackson has taken a noticeable step backwards as a passer this year, but he hasn’t gotten a ton of help either, and he’s another player who experienced COVID symptoms and has been battling through his recovery. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Ravens rank 28th in pass play success rate this year, and while their rushing attack has been the best over the past six weeks, they’ll need better aerial performances to make serious noise.
The Ravens are very likely to win out; their remaining opponents are the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, and Cincinnati Bengals. Baltimore does need some help from Miami, but as mentioned, the Dolphins’ tough schedule and poor offense does not inspire much confidence that they can run the table. It’s a big reason why Baltimore has a higher playoff probability than Miami.
Las Vegas Raiders
With the Raiders brutal defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers last night, it seems unlikely that the Raiders will be in the postseason. This is the second straight year Jon Gruden’s team has fallen apart after starting 6-3, something that is interesting to monitor. Gruden and Mike Mayock have pleasantly surprised me with their work, as I expected the Raiders to be a bit of a mess. Instead, they have been pretty good at identifying talent and have exceeded expectations each year. Derek Carr’s injury was extremely unfortunate, but Marcus Mariota played very well in relief outside of one bad throw that turned into a Chris Harris Jr. INT. The Raiders still have their showdown with Miami next week that could keep them alive, but even if they win out, they’ll need Baltimore to finish the year 1-2, something that is incredibly unlikely given their strength of schedule down the stretch.
Are the Cleveland Browns Actually for Real?
My answer? No, they’re not. The takes about the Browns were flying off the shelves Tuesday morning, with Stephen A. Smith actually saying he thinks Cleveland might be the biggest threat to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC. What?! I couldn’t believe that. This is a Cleveland Browns team who, despite their 9-4 record, have been outscored by opponents this season, have played an extremely favorable schedule, and ranks just 12th in our metric for the season. The Browns have played much better recently, which not coincidentally matched Nick Chubb’s return from IR. However, I am still not sold on this team being a serious playoff threat.
By no means am I aiming to discredit what Kevin Stefanski and the Browns have done this year; even though their 9-4 record is lucky and misleading, nine wins is nine wins. Stefanski has really found a nice groove calling plays the past few weeks and ever since Cleveland finally got decent weather and a healthy backfield, their offense has taken off. Over their past three, the Browns are averaging 36.7 PPG, which is simply a torrid number. They’re bound to crash soon, perhaps this weekend against a very good New York Giants’ defense (although the G-Men are without stud corner James Bradberry). However, my bigger concern with the Browns is their performance against above .500 teams. Cleveland has played six games against above .500 teams this year and are 2-4, yet their scoring margin is -63 in those games. They got obliterated by Baltimore Week 1 and by Pittsburgh Week 6, yet even if you remove those two outliers, their scoring margin in the other four games is 0. The Browns have kept plenty of games close this year, but they have rarely dominated their opponents outside of the first halves against the Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys. The Browns have played an incredible seven one-possession games this season and are 6-1 in those games; as we mentioned consistently in the off-season, this is a lucky statistic. It is too late this season for the Browns to regress in this mark, but they’ve skated by in plenty of games that easily could have went the other way. Maybe this is me being tough on the Browns, but nothing I have seen from Cleveland makes me confident they can go on the road and win a postseason game. The Browns trailed Baltimore by 14 points for nearly 10 minutes on Monday night, benefitted from Lamar Jackson’s cramps and ample drops by Marquise Brown, and still lost the game. This is surely a hot take, but I didn’t think Cleveland’s performance on Monday Night Football blew me away. Sure, their grit and comeback was certainly impressive, but it shouldn’t have been that competitive of a game.
As a final note and sense of optimism for the Browns, our metric indicates that over the past six weeks, Cleveland has been the 7th best team in the NFL. They did drop after their Monday loss because of the time spent trailing by two possessions, but this recent string of games for Cleveland has been impressive. I’m not sure how sustainable Baker Mayfield’s hot streak is; I expect it to fizzle out, but if Mayfield can continue at least 80-90% of this recent form, then I’d probably buy a bit of Cleveland’s stock. However, I am very, very skeptical of that continuing.
What is Happening in the NFC?
Last week, I detailed how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in a massive spot against the Minnesota Vikings. Despite Tampa Bay’s recent struggles, the Buccaneers pulled out a huge win in one of the franchise’s biggest games of the past ten years, which tells you how successful the Bucs have been in the 2010s. The Buccaneers still have flaws, but the biggest is their play calling from Byron Leftwich. Tampa Bay has been amongst the worst first down offenses in the NFL this season and while I expected that to change out of the bye week, I was wrong. During the game against the Vikings, Tampa Bay had 19 first downs excluding the 30-second drill and kneel downs, and with those 19 first down play calls, 15 were running plays. When excluding the end of game drive, the Buccaneers averaged just 3.85 YPC while averaging 12.25 YPA when throwing on first down. Tampa Bay is actively hurting their offense when running the ball on first down. That isn’t to say Tampa Bay should throw 80-100% of the time on first downs, but that split should be much closer to 50/50 or 60/40 pass. Putting Tom Brady in second and long or third and long is not a recipe for success and you have seen it with the general inefficiency of Tampa’s offense for the year.
The Buccaneers have around a 95% chance to make the postseason now, but in order to be a serious threat, they need to clean up the play calling and specifically, their first down success. Tampa Bay has gotten steamrolled by the Saints twice and the Chiefs, but other than those two games, they have actually been very, very good. The Buccaneers have the necessary talent to win a Super Bowl and getting the offense clicking over the last three games will be essential entering January football.
Currently, there are three primary teams battling for what is likely the final spot in the NFC: the Arizona Cardinals, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears. The Cardinals are fascinating, as they hold a one game lead over both MIN/CHI, but have played really poorly recently. Over the past six games, our metric ranks Arizona 16th, although they got a substantial bump from last weekend’s dominant victory over the New York Giants and a hampered Daniel Jones. According to Sharp Football Stats, Arizona’s defense has been trending down in terms of both passing and rushing success. Haason Reddick had five sacks against the Giants last weekend despite having just 12.5 for his career entering the game. Arizona’s defense has been very, very vulnerable as of late as those trending numbers are also better solely because of last weekend’s performance.
Right now, the Cardinals seem extremely unlikely to run the table. A home game against a rejuvenated Philadelphia Eagles team this weekend poses a tough test, followed by a home showdown with the 49ers and a road game against a Los Angeles Rams team that is likely playing for seeding and the NFC West crown Week 17. Arizona can probably win two and feel somewhat confident, but for a team that controls their own destiny, you never want to rely on another team for help. Arizona is 2-4 since their bye week, with one of those wins coming on Kyler Murray’s miracle pass. For the year, Arizona is just 2-3 against teams that are .500 or better with a -15 scoring margin. They could easily be 0-5 as well, as the two wins were against Buffalo (Hail Mary) and Seattle (fantastic comeback and win in OT). Arizona has been fading for the better part of a month and while a dominant victory last weekend halted their downward trajectory, I still need some more convincing.
The Minnesota Vikings were a team we identified to have a strong second half and they have made us look very smart. Since the bye week, Minnesota has gone 5-2, with their only losses coming on a narrow defeat to Dallas and last week’s game against Tampa Bay in which Dan Bailey left 10 points on the table. Minnesota had been running a string of luck against Carolina and Jacksonville, so while their loss last weekend was arguably unlucky (although, I’d argue Tampa Bay outplayed them regardless), they were due for some regression. The Vikings’ defense has really improved over the past several weeks and despite a shaky weekend against Tampa Bay, there have been significant strides forward. That doesn’t mean their defense is magically “good”, but they’re serviceable, and considering the explosiveness of Minnesota’s offensive weapons, serviceable is potentially good enough to make the postseason. Minnesota’s offense seems primed for a blowup spot this weekend against a Bears defense that has been horrible recently; Chicago has given up 27.3 PPG since the bye week and 24 or more in five of their last seven.
On the flip side of this game are the Chicago Bears, who have quietly inched back into the playoff picture. Our metric has not been kind to Chicago this season and accurately predicted a strong regression. The Bears broke their six game losing streak last Sunday with an impressive win over a Houston Texans team that was playing very well entering the game. Still, the Bears rank 21st in our metric for the year (ironically, just ahead of Minnesota at 22nd) and 14th over the past six weeks, in large part because of last week’s performance. Since Mitch Trubisky took over as the starter, the Bears are 1-2, but they do have a positive point differential (+9) and have averaged 383 yards per game in that span along with 30.3 PPG. Chicago is not magically an offensive juggernaut, but I’d argue that Trubisky has actually been good since regaining his starting job. He struggled with his reads against the Packers, but bounced back strong against Detroit and has played relatively mistake-free football the past two weeks outside of that horrible fumble that set Detroit up for the win two weeks ago. Chicago’s rushing attack has also gotten going as David Montgomery has looked sensational as well. Chicago’s offensive metrics are trending up, their defense is still loaded with talent (albeit, they need to play much better), and there seems to be a playoff path. After the game against Minnesota, Chicago has Jacksonville and Green Bay left on their schedule, although the Packers may be resting starters if they have the #1 seed in the NFC locked up by Week 17. Is it crazy to say Chicago finishes 9-7 and make the postseason? In my opinion, no. They’ll need to get by a decent Minnesota squad on Sunday but over the past six weeks and throughout the year, I don’t think these two teams have a substantial talent difference.
It pains me to say this, but for this weekend’s game, I think whichever club can best establish the run has the best chance for a win. Running is an inefficient form of offense, but with David Montgomery and Dalvin Cook, we can *slightly* throw that notion out the window. The Bears bottled up Dalvin Cook in Week 10, but Chicago’s leading rusher was Cordarelle Patterson with 30 yards. Both offenses are at their best when their running backs get going. This is a monster game for both teams as the loser is essentially eliminated from postseason contention, while the winner may control their own destiny depending on the result from Arizona/Philadelphia.
Are We on the Eagles Train Again?
This is a fascinating question, as the Philadelphia Eagles pulled off their annual miracle December victory to stay relevant in the playoff picture. Per my usual comment, nobody from the NFC East should make the postseason this year unless they have a better record than seven teams in the conference, something that likely can only be accomplished by the Washington Football Team. At best, Philadelphia can finish 7-8-1 this year, and if they do, they would have a 3-6-1 record against non-NFC East teams.
I was a big Jalen Hurts fan coming out of college and after his first start, I am still on the bandwagon. Hurts is a really smart decision-maker and incredibly underrated playmaker; he doesn’t possess the strongest arm or best deep ball touch, but he’s accurate, quick with his reads, and a great runner. We saw his dynamic playmaking ability on display last weekend with his 273 total yards against an elite Saints defense. The misdirection he’s able to cause because of his ability to run adds a unique dynamic to this offense and, as expected, Doug Pederson went back to the option playbook. Hurts certainly provided a spark to the Eagles last weekend in a really impressive victory.
Yet, despite all of this, consider me not sold on the notion that the Eagles are “back”. My favorite stat about Philadelphia this year is, when facing an opponent’s starting quarterback, they are 1-8-1, yet 3-0 when facing a backup. That is absurd. A team that has won 10% of games against starting quarterbacks is in the playoff hunt. And, this isn’t like their victories were against teams that opted for a backup, but rather, were forced to a backup. San Francisco had Jimmy Garoppolo hurt, Dallas had Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton hurt, and New Orleans had Drew Brees hurt. Against starting quarterbacks, the Eagles have a scoring margin of -73, but against backups, their scoring margin is +22, which frankly, isn’t spectacular. The only other teams to face a backup quarterback three or more times are the Pittsburgh Steelers (five times if counting Drew Lock’s injury during the game–Jeff Driskel, Garrett Gilbert, Jake Luton, Robert Griffin III, Alex Smith), and Washington (Andy Dalton x2, Nick Mullens). The difference between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh/Washington is the splits against starting quarterbacks: Pittsburgh is 7-1 facing starters while Washington is 3-7, which isn’t good, but the WFT has actually been forced to use a backup this season, unlike the Eagles who opted for one. In fact, since Washington was forced to go to Alex Smith after Kyle Allen’s injury, they have gone 4-2. Smith’s comeback has been an incredible story and seeing Washington’s success despite operating with their third string quarterback, who came back after 17 surgeries on his leg, is remarkable.
To really put Philadelphia into perspective this season, let me add one more stat. The Eagles have as many wins against opposing starting quarterbacks as the Cowboys and Giants do with their backup QBs. That’s right, Philadelphia’s lone win over a starting quarterback was their 10-point comeback against Daniel Jones and the Giants on Thursday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Giants beat Russell Wilson and the Seahawks with Colt McCoy and Dallas beat Kirk Cousins and the Vikings with Andy Dalton. Plus, Washington has just as many wins with their preseason third string quarterback as the Eagles do all year.
This isn’t meant to simply bash the Eagles, but rather, to strongly pump the brakes over a really good win last weekend. This is a different team with Jalen Hurts under center, but is Hurts good enough to overcome all of Philadelphia’s flaws? Definitely not, and execution remained an issue for Philadelphia last week. The Eagles had just 104 total yards in the second half against New Orleans despite accumulating 309 in the first half. With teams having additional film on Hurts and the Eagles, it’ll be easier to prepare. We saw New Orleans make the necessary adjustments and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Eagles offense struggled a bit down the stretch because of greater familiarity. With all this being said, there’s no denying that Hurts has provided the Eagles with a spark and they still have the most talent of any team in the division. With every divisional team onto a backup quarterback out of necessity except Philadelphia, there’s no reason why they can’t win the division.
With Philadelphia and Dallas’ wins last weekend, the NFC East race is, once again, wide open. The Washington Football Team have a nice 1.5 game cushion over Philadelphia and essentially, a three game lead over Dallas since they hold the tiebreaker, but that could evaporate quickly if Dwayne Haskins is forced to start the remaining three games. Washington is 1-4 in games started by Haskins this season and 5-3 in all other games, an interesting split. However, it should be noted that Haskins beat the Eagles Week 1, so while hope is not lost just because Alex Smith is hurt, it makes things substantially more difficult for the Football Team. With the Giants also on to a backup quarterback and missing standout corner James Bradberry, it seems like things are aligning for the Eagles to make a dramatic late-season surge. They have momentum and a spark with Hurts, but I can’t get around their 1-8-1 record against starting quarterbacks this season, and the likelihood they could face five backup quarterbacks in one season and possibly still miss the playoffs. This is must-win territory for Philadelphia this weekend against Arizona, a game where I think the Eagles have a great shot. Arizona has struggled against dual-threat QBs this season; Teddy Bridgewater ran for 52 yards, Russell Wilson ran for 126 yards in two games, Josh Allen ran for 38 yards (over 5 YPC), and Cam Newton ran for 46 yards (5.1 YPC). Arizona’s record in those five games? 2-3, with their wins being the dramatic OT comeback against Seattle and the Hail Mary against Buffalo. I worry that the Eagles’ offense will be a bit sluggish against an Arizona defense that can adequately prepare for Hurts with game tape, but this is a nice spot in a nutshell.
The one team I wouldn’t be too eager to count out is the New York Giants. If Washington were to lose to Seattle and New York were somehow able to beat Cleveland, the Giants would be in first place. Sure, their Week 16 game against Baltimore is incredibly tough, but their Week 17 game against Dallas might be a freebie if the Cowboys are tanking for a better pick. The Giants beat the Seahawks in Seattle with Colt McCoy, so why can’t they beat Cleveland? Not having James Bradberry makes things very difficult, but New York’s defense has been sensational for two months, the Browns offense is due for some regression, and since Week 3, the Giants have only trailed by two possessions in one game: last weekend. New York has an extra day of rest for their Sunday night affair compared to Cleveland and have been strong against the run all season, although they have allowed their fair share of “explosive” runs over the past few weeks. I stand by my take of New York being the best team in the NFC East and counting them out would be very silly.
Quick Hitters
Problem: The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Offense
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense has been a problem for weeks and on Sunday, it reared its ugly head again. As I mentioned in last week’s notebook, Pittsburgh’s play success is way below league average. In a league that wins with offense more than defense, Pittsburgh’s current style of play is simply not conducive to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. The Steelers have no running game to speak of and while I enjoy their heavy pass rate, teams have really started to attack Pittsburgh more at the line of scrimmage. Buffalo got a lot of pressure on Roethlisberger last week and by stacking the line and playing press coverage, you’re forcing the Steelers into uncomfortable territory. I love to mention Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles against good defenses and it’s becoming more and more concerning by the week. I think it’s unfair to harp too much on Pittsburgh’s loss to Buffalo as it was their third game in twelve days, but if they get a tough postseason matchup (Baltimore or Indianapolis), they could certainly be bounced during Wild Card Weekend.
Is There Momentum in Dallas?
One team I’ve been closely monitoring the past several weeks has been the Dallas Cowboys. It was a dumpster fire in Dallas early in the year; their defense was historically bad, Mike McCarthy and the coaching staff seemed criminally underprepared each week, Dak Prescott had a heartbreaking injury, the offensive line was decimated, Zeke couldn’t hold onto the football, etc., the list goes on. However, very quietly, the Cowboys have really turned things around rather nicely and, all things considered, have consistently improved. Over the past six weeks, Dallas ranks 11th in our metric and since Andy Dalton returned from his concussion/COVID list, the Cowboys are 2-2. This doesn’t mean the Cowboys are a good team overall, but across the past six weeks, they have been a competitive one. It seems like releasing Everson Griffen and Dontari Poe got some bad apples out of the locker room, as those moves coincided with a defensive improvement. In Trevon Diggs stayed healthy, monitoring their second-half progress would’ve been really interesting.
I mention the Cowboys here because, despite an incredibly disappointing year, there are some glimmers of hope. If Dallas can reach a deal with Dak Prescott and he returns to full health, this team will be very scary next season. A lot of their current starters have been forced into major playing time due to injuries and next year, they’ll be key rotational guys. Dallas may also get the benefit of having the last place schedule, a top-5 draft pick, and their roster is still loaded with talent, especially offensively. Mike McCarthy seems to have steadied things in Dallas and if they can finish competitively over their final three games, then there’s a lot to be optimistic about entering 2021.
Was That Matthew Stafford’s Final Game as a Detroit Lion?
This is a sad thought to ponder, but after Matthew Stafford left Sunday’s game against Green Bay with a rib injury, it didn’t seem impossible to imagine that may be the last time we ever see Stafford playing for the Lions. In my opinion, Stafford has been one of the most underappreciated quarterbacks of the past 5-10 years, but the franchise never put him in a consistent position to succeed. After a myriad of injuries early on in his career, he has been incredibly durable since and his toughness was on display Sunday.
The Lions seem destined for a rebuild; their defense is really bad and was built specifically for Matt Patricia’s scheme, meaning it’ll likely be a multi-year overhaul before that unit can be labeled above average. Offensively, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones will both become free agents this spring and a new coaching staff will be in town with a likely top-10 pick as well. Stafford is still an above-average quarterback and in an off-season where there will be more teams looking for a starting-caliber quarterback than ones available, Stafford is likely to generate an impressive haul of assets in return. Seeing Stafford with Ron Rivera in Washington would be a lot of fun, as he’d have a great defense and a very talented receiver in Terry McLaurin to work with. San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan would be great as well, although I think Matt Ryan to the Bay Area could generate a lot of steam, if possible. Bill Belichick would surely love to get Stafford in New England as well. Nearly every team looking for a quarterback makes sense as a landing spot for Stafford. A dark-horse team? The Pittsburgh Steelers. If Big Ben opts for retirement, Stafford would immediately elevate that team’s ceiling and make them a top-3 Super Bowl contender.
The Denver Broncos Have Quietly Been Pretty Good Recently
Vic Fangio has had a very weird tenure as head coach of the Broncos. Since taking over, he’s only coached in 29 games, yet has started seven different quarterbacks. Last year when Drew Lock got the starting job, the Broncos were 4-1 and really controlled the game in all of their wins. With offseason acquisitions of Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, Melvin Gordon, and Graham Glasgow, it seemed like the Broncos would make a huge leap (I even predicted them to make the postseason). Instead, it’s been a rocky ride. Von Miller suffered a dislocated ankle that cost him the entire season, Drew Lock hurt his shoulder Week 2, the Broncos had to start Kendall Hinton, a practice squad wide receiver at quarterback, and much more. Yet, Denver is quietly 5-8 and, in games Drew Lock has started and finished (i.e. excluding the Pittsburgh game), the Broncos are 4-5 with a scoring margin of -48. The scoring margin isn’t ideal, but two blowout losses to Kansas City and Las Vegas are the main contributors. In every other Drew Lock start/finish, Denver has been within one possession. Their 4-3 record in one possession games with Lock isn’t terribly lucky either. The Broncos’ defense has been above average the entire season despite a myriad of injuries and Fangio has done a terrific job with that unit. Very quietly, Denver has been a really solid team when Drew Lock has been available. There’s been some whispers of Denver moving on from Lock, but I really think that would be a mistake. Not only am I a Drew Lock believer, but the guy has only played 14 games from start to finish in his career, and his record in those games is 8-6. Jerry Jeudy has had an excellent rookie season, K.J. Hamler is coming off a huge week, and there’s a great defense in town as well. Considering all the obstacles Denver has had to deal with, 5-8 isn’t so bad, and I’d bet they finish the year 6-10 or 7-9.
Are The Green Bay Packers For Real?
This may seem like an absurd question on the surface, making this a perfect final thought. Asking about Green Bay, the #1 seed in the NFC, being a real contender is a serious question I have, and let me explain. The Packers have been impressive this season: our metric ranks them as the best team in football over the year and #2 over the past six weeks. However, our metric does not account for strength of schedule, so while Green Bay has led for two possessions for a ton of minutes, and been within one possession for plenty more, it has not necessarily been against high-quality competition. A major reason why the Packers rank #1 in our metric is because they’ve spent the most time out of any team in the league ahead by two possessions or more. Impressive? Absolutely. But, I’m never one to solely take things at face value, even insights developed by our metric.
Somehow, the Packers have only played three games against teams who currently have a record of .500 or better. In those games, they are 1-2 with a scoring margin of -24. While their loss to Tampa Bay is partially responsible for that wide point differential, the simple fact is the Packers have not consistently played top-level competition this season. Their only remaining opponent who will certainly be .500 or better is the Tennessee Titans, a game that will pose a great test considering Green Bay’s struggles against the run. The Packers are likely to have home-field advantage and even without fans, that holds massive importance. Aaron Rodgers is very tough to beat in Lambeau, especially in the colder months. However, I think we need to slow down a bit on saying Green Bay is a bonafide contender in the NFC. That is absolutely a hot take and one that defies our metric, but until they face some stiffer competition, I’m not really sure how good the Packers truly are. Don’t get me wrong, they’re certainly a very good team and definitely top-7 in the NFL. However, are they the favorite in the NFC? In my opinion, we don’t have enough evidence to confidently say yes.
The Chirp 