Welcome to The Chirp’s Friday NFL Notebook, where we’ll be breaking down some interesting topics to cover as we enter a high-stakes Week 14. With playoff pushes in full swing, we’ll be delivering the content you do not want to miss with unique insights as well.
The theme of Week 14 is simple: perseverance. With the playoff push truly heating up, there is very little margin for error, yet for so many teams aiming for a final playoff berth, the determination and, wait for it, perseverance, they have shown is a major reason why they are in position to succeed. I am talking about teams like the New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, Washington Football Team, and Minnesota Vikings, all teams who have had vast struggles both within the past year and early this season, only to go on strong runs to find themselves (outside of WAS/NYG) in the driver’s seat for a hard-earned trip to January football.
Surveying the landscape of the AFC, there are five serious contenders for essentially three spots: whichever team out of Indianapolis or Tennessee that doesn’t win the AFC South, the Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders, and Baltimore Ravens. With New England’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams last night, they are going to need an incredible stretch of luck to even have a shot come Week 17, so while it is never smart to write Belichick off, I think it’s fair to say the Patriots are pretty close to done this season. However, all of the aforementioned teams are not only still in it, but four of the *six* play each other this week, with Vegas/Indianapolis doing the tango in Sin City, while the Ravens will travel north to face the red-hot Cleveland Browns. There are big games galore this weekend, and I haven’t even mentioned the Buccaneers/Vikings game in the NFC that could be extremely consequential in deciding the final two Wild Card spots in the NFC. Chaos!
New York Giants: Too Late to Buy Stock, So Ride the Wave
A few weeks ago, I detailed in an article at the midpoint of the NFL season why I was bullish on the New York Giants improving in the second half of the season. At the time, it seemed crazy to label the 2-7 Giants as the best team in the NFC East, but three straight wins later, and here we are, with the 5-7 New York Giants as your first place NFC East team.
The thing is, the New York Giants are actually a pretty good football team. It’s hard to believe considering the Giants are constant mockery and the source of plenty of jokes early on in the season (and the past few seasons), but Joe Judge deserves a ton of credit for his work this year, especially on defense. The Giants rank middle of the pack in terms of defensive DVOA, but some of their other metrics are much kinder; New York ranks 11th in yards per play allowed, 9th in scoring defense, 10th in yards per game allowed. James Bradberry has been arguably the best cornerback in the NFL this season (PFF ranks him 10th out of 125 qualifiers) and has been a huge catalyst, along with an improved front seven. The Giants were pitiful in the beginning of the year on third down, allowing teams to convert 53.57% of third downs through Week 4, easily the worst mark in the league. Now, the Giants have whittled it down to an opponent conversion rate of 42.07%, which is close to league average. It is truly an incredible turnaround and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that since their Week 4 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Giants are 5-3.
The fascinating thing about New York’s run since Week 4 is they could easily be 8-0. Here’s a look at their three losses in that span, including their max win probability in each game:
- Week 5: Dallas Cowboys (L, 37-34)–Max Win Probability: 79.3%
- Week 7: Philadelphia Eagles (L, 22-21)–Max Win Probability: 96.9%
- Week 8: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (L, 25-23)–Max Win Probability: 69.9%
In every one of New York’s losses in that span, the Giants led by two (or more) possessions for at least part of the game, yet lost all of them. Our competitiveness metric accounts for that, however, and over the past six weeks, our model indicates the Giants have been the 6th best team in the NFL. Since Week 4, the Giants are the only team in the NFL to have never trailed in any game by more than 7 points. Soak that in; yes, that means that although teams like Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans, Green Bay, and every other squad has trailed by 9+ points, the New York Giants have not since September. Not only has this team finally started to string some wins together, but they’ve been highly competitive in every game they have played, really for the majority of the season. It was a rocky start early on, but the turning point of the season was Week 4’s close loss to the Rams. Since then, the Giants have performed like a playoff team. Whether a NFC East team that finishes at 8-8 and behind seven other teams is worthy of a playoff spot is a different discussion (and one I have addressed), but with the way things are going, the New York Giants are definitely getting hot at the right time.
As a final note on the Giants, I think it would have been a fair criticism to indicate how New York really hasn’t beaten anybody impressive prior to last weekend. Entering Sunday’s game in Seattle, New York’s victories were over Washington twice by a total of four points, Philadelphia, and a Cincinnati team on their third string quarterback. However, it’s a tough argument to maintain after New York went to Seattle, one of the toughest places to play (even without fans) with their backup quarterback and controlled the game.
Meanwhile, Don’t Sleep on the Football Team
The “football team” I am referring to here is no other than the appropriately named Washington Football Team, which have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season. The stories of Ron Rivera and Alex Smith are beyond inspiring and to see them experience success together has been a bright spot during a really dark time. Alex Smith needed 17 surgeries just to save his leg after a horrific injury and for him and Ron Rivera to be fighting for a postseason berth in the winter months is truly awesome. It’s nearly impossible not to root for them in some capacity.
While I was super skeptical of Washington preseason, even going so far as saying they’d be the worst team in the NFL, I am slowly coming around on the WFT, primarily because their defense is legit. Washington ranks 4th in defensive DVOA, 3rd in sack percentage, 4th in opponents’ yards per pass attempt, and 12th in opponent completion percentage. Chase Young has been as good as advertised in his rookie year, while the rest of their defensive line has wreaked havoc and generated elite grades from Pro Football Focus. While Washington lacks brand name players in the back seven, guys like Kendall Fuller, Ronald Darby, and Cole Holcomb have had really impressive seasons. Over their past three games, Washington has allowed a total of 40 points and have won three in a row. While Alex Smith has accumulated some gaudy stat lines, this is a team that has to win with their defense. We saw on Monday Night Football they can do it, even against an undefeated team, but they’ll need to avoid larger deficits early in the game to truly gain my confidence.
Despite Washington’s recent impressive stretch, our model is not quite as bullish on them as we are the Giants. Despite Washington going 3-2 over the past six weeks (bye week was built in), our model indicates they have only been the 26th best team in that stretch. In their game against Pittsburgh, they had to overcome a 14-point deficit to win, something that is unlikely sustainable across multiple games. The problem is, this has been an issue throughout the year for Washington. While they only lost to the New York Giants and Detroit Lions by a combined six points a few weeks ago, they never led in either game and trailed New York by two possessions for around 57% of the game and Detroit for 50% of the game. Washington has had a penchant for coming back when teams get lax, but it is tough to be confident in a team that consistently falls behind so quickly. Yes, they are 3-2 with Alex Smith as the starter and have a scoring margin of +36 in that span, but I urge caution in falling prey to believing Washington has truly turned a corner. If Joe Burrow didn’t get hurt, Cincinnati easily could have (and arguably should have) won that game. The Dallas game was much closer than the final score indicated and if simulations were run of the Pittsburgh game, odds are Pittsburgh would’ve won that battle more often than not. I like Washington’s defense a lot and Alex Smith has played at an elite level considering everything he has been through, but can they keep this up?
Obviously, I am skeptical of Washington’s long-term viability, but when examining their schedule with New York’s there is a path. Washington has a solid shot to beat the 49ers this weekend and they should be competitive against Carolina and Philadelphia. I don’t think Washington will finish 3-1 (expecting they lose to Seattle, which clearly isn’t a given), but if Washington goes 2-2, they’ll need the Giants to go 1-3 to make the postseason, as New York holds the tiebreaker. The Giants have tough games against the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens, along with a monumental game this Sunday versus the Arizona Cardinals. It’s possible Washington sneaks in at 7-9, but considering how New York has been playing, the WFT likely needs to go 3-1 to feel truly confident. It’s not impossible, but from what I have seen, I do think it is unlikely.
The Pittsburgh Steelers Have an Offensive Problem
As we detailed in our midterm reports, Pittsburgh’s offense has been… not good for much of the season. According to Sharp Football Stats, Pittsburgh’s offensive success rate is at 45%, which is well below the league average mark of 49%. Not only that, but Pittsburgh’s rushing offense ranks 30th in success in Sharp’s metric; while the Steelers have embraced an analytically-friendly style of throwing the ball (Pittsburgh has the 7th highest pass rate in the NFL, a very high mark for an 11-1 team), winning teams do have at least an average running game to set up play action and keep the defense honest. Pittsburgh’s passing offense has trended up a bit, but a lot of that can be attributed to an electric showing against the banged up Cincinnati Bengals’ secondary. As we have pointed out at the midterms, whenever Pittsburgh has faced an above average defense, they have really struggled. In their three games against Baltimore and Washington this year, the Steelers have combined for just 881 total yards and 40 total offensive points, as they had two defensive TDs mixed in (and short fields as well). That is simply not good enough for a team with Super Bowl aspirations; for reference, 293.7 total yards per game, on average, would rank 31st in the NFL for the entire season. Nobody is expecting Pittsburgh’s offense to light up Baltimore or Washington, but their performances were far from inspiring. Considering Pittsburgh’s overall opponent’s winning percentage is at 37.2%, it’s really tough to discern just how legit the Pittsburgh Steelers really are. We know their defense is elite; they’ve shown that consistently and have one of the most aggressive units arguably in NFL history. However, how sustainable is Pittsburgh’s torrid turnover/sack streak? This team, believe it or not, has been incredibly reliant on their defense causing opportune turnovers and creating touchdowns. Don’t believe me? Well, take a look at the game to the Dallas Cowboys when Garrett Gilbert threw an end-zone INT, or both Ravens games, where they had two pick-sixes and another INT deep in Baltimore’s territory. I said at the midterms that Pittsburgh performed much closer to a 5-3 team in the first half than an 8-0 team. Don’t get me wrong, they’re still very good (11-1 isn’t easy, especially considering they have had the greatest scheduling difficulties this year), but are they in that top tier? I’m not sold.
Considering Pittsburgh’s struggles against good defenses, their Week 16 battle against the Indianapolis Colts is, without a doubt, their most important gauging game the rest of the year. While their showdown with the Bills this weekend will rightfully garner some hype, Buffalo’s defense has been mediocre this year, although it is improving as of late. Indianapolis, however, ranks 6th in defensive DVOA and allows the 10th lowest completion percentage in the league. According to Sharp Football Stats, Pittsburgh has the 2nd lowest success rate of plays from 11 personnel in the league (they’re even behind the Jets!), yet run 65% of their plays from that formation. Pittsburgh has been much more effective in empty sets, where their successful play rate is all the way up to 64%. Indianapolis, however, has been amongst the best defenses in the NFL in those personnel groupings. If we want to know how good Pittsburgh is, that’s the game to truly monitor.
What Stocks to Buy, What to Sell?
Referring to NFL teams, of course, but over the past six weeks, there are certainly some teams trending upwards that we are all over. The New Orleans Saints rank #1 in our metric over the past six weeks, which is fairly shocking since they’ve spent 50% of that time playing with their backup quarterback. New Orleans’ defense really struggled early on in the season, but they have been arguably the best unit in football since the halfway point. Since Week 7, Sharp Football Statistics has New Orleans as 3rd best against the pass and best against the run. So far, New Orleans has played a fairly average schedule in terms of opposing offenses, although over the past six weeks, they’ve gotten an easier run. During that span, New Orleans did dominate Tampa Bay’s offense, which has actually been a cause for concern (more on them later), but the rest of their opponents were, uninspiring. The Chicago Bears have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, San Francisco was on their 3rd string quarterback and their offense is decimated by injuries, Denver played without a quarterback due to COVID protocols, and while Atlanta’s offense is good, they also played with a limited/out Julio Jones, and the Falcons offense has been drastically different with and without him. That’s not to take anything away from the Saints, but it is to provide some additional context. The Saints have a test this weekend with Jalen Hurts’ first career start, one that could feature the return of Doug Pederson’s RPOs. New Orleans will have limited film on Hurts, making this an intriguing spot. However, with an impending showdown against Kansas City coming up, I am excited to see this defense go up against the best offense in football. I think the Saints are legit and their stretch has been incredibly impressive, especially considering this is being done with Taysom Hill starting 50% of the games.
The Buffalo Bills have been the 2nd best team in the NFL over the past six weeks according to our metrics, and once again, Brandon Beane, Brian Daboll, and Sean McDermott simply do not get enough credit for what they’ve done. McDermott has done a terrific job ever since he’s taken over and while the Bills’ defense has surprisingly taken a step back, particularly against the run, that unit has improved as the season has gone along and are trending up. Over the past six weeks, Buffalo has had some challenges as well, including games against Seattle, Arizona, New England, and San Francisco. Josh Allen has regained that early season form and with the defense improving, this team’s ceiling has drastically increased. There’s a huge game on Sunday Night Football versus the Steelers and one I think the Bills have a great shot in. Their biggest weakness (run defense) is unlikely to be exposed by Pittsburgh, while the Steelers have been prone to some big quarterback games if they are unable to get home. Buffalo’s offensive line will be tested here and they have been middle of the road in sack percentage so far, but if they hold up, I think the Bills have a shot to make a statement.
Another team trending up that I think is worth mentioning is the Houston Texans, who have been our 11th best team in the NFL from Week 8-Week 13. FiveThirtyEight released an awesome article detailing the bump teams receive from firing their head coach (link is here), and the Texans have been no different this season. Since firing Bill O’Brien, Houston has gone 4-4 with a scoring margin of +7. Not only that, but Houston’s four losses have all come against likely postseason teams: Tennessee, Green Bay, Cleveland, and Indianapolis. The Texans easily could’ve beaten Indianapolis and Tennessee too and while they’re playoff hopes are basically over, it seems like there is something to build upon. As FiveThirtyEight mentions, this coach “bump” is temporary, but watching Deshaun Watson play the past several weeks, if Houston nails their next hire, this team will be trending up despite all the damage Bill O’Brien did when constructing the roster. As an additional note, the Atlanta Falcons have been the 9th best team over the past six weeks and our overall 8th best team on the year. Getting them at -2.5 against a sinking Chargers team seems like a great bet for this weekend.
On the flip side, one notable playoff team that is trending down has been the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank 27th in our metric over the past six weeks. Tampa Bay’s low ranking can largely be attributed to getting dominated by both New Orleans and Kansas City, but the Bucs are just 2-3 over the last five games with a point differential of -16. The main cause for concern with Tampa Bay is, surprisingly, their offense, which has been thoroughly mediocre this year despite a ton of talent at the skill positions. Mike Evans is on track to have his worst year by yardage since entering the league, Chris Godwin has battled injuries throughout, Antonio Brown has been a non-factor, and while Rob Gronkowski has gotten going recently, things have really yet to click for the Bucs this season. A big reason why has been Tampa Bay’s struggles on first down, where Sharp Football Stats ranks them as the 4th worst team in terms of successful play rate. A big reason why is Tampa’s insistence to run the ball, averaging just 3.9 YPC on first down rushes despite 51% of their first down calls opting for a run. Simply put, that is inefficient, poor play-calling and sets up inopportune third downs, where Tampa Bay has improved recently, but struggled early on. A lot of the play calls seem to be a major disconnect between what Tom Brady is comfortable doing/likes to do and what Bruce Arians/Byron Leftwich are comfortable doing. This is correctable over the bye week, but with a monster game looming against a Minnesota defense that quietly ranks inside the top-10 in terms of defensive DVOA, Tampa Bay doesn’t have any more time to “figure it out”. A win this weekend essentially locks up a postseason spot, while a loss puts them in the danger zone of missing out.
Another playoff team that has struggled recently has been the Arizona Cardinals, who rank 25th in our metric over the past six weeks. Kyler Murray’s injury has clearly hampered the offense a bit the past two weeks against New England and Los Angeles, but even so, the Cardinals are just 1-4 over their last five games and, dating back to their lucky Week 7 win against Seattle, easily could be 1-5 over their past six. Arizona has faced a brutal schedule; their opponents’ winning percentage over their past five games is at 64.52%, but that offsets an easy first half where Arizona faced Washington, Detroit, the New York Jets, Dallas, and Carolina. This year, Arizona is 4-3 with a +51 scoring margin against below .500 teams, while they are 2-3 with a -15 scoring margin against .500 teams or better. Arizona has a tricky schedule, albeit not an entirely difficult one, down the stretch. We’ve already detailed the challenge of the New York Giants this weekend, while a Philadelphia Eagles team with Jalen Hurts at QB could be a rejuvenated bunch. However, Arizona has to win at least 2/4 down the stretch to feel like they can at least have a shot; can they beat two of New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Los Angeles? Certainly, but with the way this team has performed recently, it’s easy to have some doubts. Arizona’s defense is well below average and over the last six weeks, Sharp Football Statistics has them ranked last in opponents’ passing play success. New York, Philadelphia, and San Francisco all have rather poor passing attacks, making this a big final stretch for the Cardinals. They’ll be battling with Minnesota and Tampa Bay for a playoff berth, with Washington/New York and San Francisco possibly in that mix too.
Lastly, a final team to note is the Philadelphia Eagles, largely because of their quarterback change to Jalen Hurts. Simply put, Carson Wentz has been horrible this year; he has the 2nd lowest on target percentage in the league, the most turnovers, and has been sacked the most. While Philadelphia’s offensive line has been decimated by injuries, Wentz also isn’t getting the ball out quickly enough or is trying too hard to make a magical play happen instead of the smart play. This notion that Wentz is “broken” is untrue, but he’s far from the player he was in the 2017-18 season when he performed at a MVP-caliber level. Jalen Hurts was really impressive in college and as we saw against Green Bay, there was certainly a spark when he entered the game. The Eagles rank 29th over the past six weeks, ahead of only the New York Jets, Detroit Lions, and Denver Broncos. That is not a group you want to be in, especially for a team that, six weeks ago, was in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth. Since then, the Eagles have lost four straight and while the schedule has been tough, they weren’t very competitive in any of the games. It is not outside of the realm of possibilities that the Eagles could finish 4-11-1 this season, and if so, what do they do in the off-season? Is Doug Pederson fired, or just Howie Roseman? Does Philadelphia look to trade Carson Wentz? This is an older roster that has consistently regressed since winning the Super Bowl and since that victory, they are just 21-22-1 in the regular season despite having a very similar core roster.
Final Thoughts
What Coaches Are Still on the Hot Seat?
Entering the final four weeks of the season, we have already seen three head coaching vacancies emerge: the Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, and Detroit Lions. Despite it being a COVID year, it does not appear like owners are putting much stock into that as an excuse for a poor performance. It is a results-oriented league and owners are not ones to do a deep dive into the underlying metrics.
At this point, it seems like a near lock that both Adam Gase and Anthony Lynn will be looking for new jobs this off-season. After watching Anthony Lynn’s coaching debacle against the Buffalo Bills Week 12, it’s very hard to imagine he remains in Los Angeles, while Adam Gase has had the writing on the wall for weeks now. However, a few more names could unfortunately also be on the chopping block. Matt Nagy’s time seems to have run out in Chicago, as that group is going nowhere fast, particularly offensively, which is supposedly Nagy’s strong suit. As mentioned, Doug Pederson and the Eagles might be nearing a “mutual parting of ways”, especially considering reports that he wouldn’t be “unhappy” if the Eagles moved on. Doug Marrone has been saved the past two years, but I think he might be out of Jacksonville. The Jaguars have already fired GM David Caldwell and seem destined to select either Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence, making it seem like an ideal place for a new coach. Vic Fangio has underwhelmed in Denver so far, but I think he deserves another year considering Denver has battled a multitude of injuries this season, yet his defense has remained strong. Mike McCarthy’s seat has cooled down quite a bit since releasing Everson Griffen and Dontari Poe and he’s likely safe for at least another year. Lastly, a surprise name might be Bruce Arians. Arians and Brady don’t seem to have connected a lot this year and while both have publicly discredited rumors of friction, the Buccaneers’ offense has not clicked. Arians may opt for retirement again and allow Todd Bowles to take over as head coach, although that is purely speculation on my part.
The Off-Season for Quarterbacks
This is more of a foreword for the offseason, but something to monitor is the expected shortage present on the quarterback market this upcoming March/April. Currently, here are the teams who could potentially look for a QB this offseason:
- New England Patriots (current QB: Cam Newton)
- New York Jets (current QB: Sam Darnold)
- Indianapolis Colts (current QB: Philip Rivers, impending FA)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (current QB: Mike Glennon/Gardner Minshew when healthy)
- Denver Broncos (current QB: Drew Lock)
- Washington Football Team (current QB: Alex Smith)
- Dallas Cowboys (current QB: Dak Prescott/Andy Dalton)
- Chicago Bears (current QB: Mitch Trubisky/Nick Foles)
- Detroit Lions (current QB: Matthew Stafford)
- Carolina Panthers (current QB: Teddy Bridgewater)
- San Francisco 49ers (current QB: Jimmy Garoppolo)
That list features 11 teams. While some are unlikely; for example, the Cowboys will probably have Dak Prescott back barring horrible negotiations, the Colts may bring back Philip Rivers, and I don’t think the Broncos are ready to give up on Drew Lock, we could still see roughly 8-14 teams looking for a new quarterback, as teams like Atlanta and Pittsburgh could also be surprise additions. Now, a lot of the aforementioned signal-callers could swap teams, but simply put, there are a lot more teams who need a quarterback, then projected available good quarterbacks via the draft or free agency. While the QB class is stacked with Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance, that’ll leave plenty of teams picking in the 12+ range seeking a QB in other manners most likely. That includes the Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, and maybe the Carolina Panthers as well.
Simply put, expect a lot of movement on the QB carousel this offseason. Matthew Stafford will likely have tons of suitors if Detroit opts to move on as would Matt Ryan if Atlanta begins a rebuild. San Francisco can move on from Jimmy Garoppolo for no penalty (New England reunion here we come) and I’m already connecting the dots for Matt Ryan to be a 49er. Indianapolis could be looking for a new QB if Rivers retires and with Carson Wentz’s time possibly up in Philadelphia, reuniting with Frank Reich has been a theory we’ve peddled for weeks. Other quarterbacks like Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and possibly Josh Rosen could get fresh starts elsewhere too. I’d be surprised if we have significant continuity league-wide at the QB position from this year to next, so start monitoring it now.
The Chirp 