With the halfway point of the 2020 NFL season officially passed, that means one thing: it is time for midterms. The 2020 NFL season has looked different from past campaigns for a variety of reasons, but we have seen a strong deviance from last season. The Pittsburgh Steelers are tearing it up with a hot 8-0 start, leaving many doubters (myself included) left looking for answers. The NFC East may be the weakest division in NFL history, with all four teams sporting a negative scoring margin and below .500 record. We have also had plenty of surprises, including the Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, and Arizona Cardinals, who are all performing much better than expected.
Never settling for taking results at face value, it is important to provide some additional context surrounding team performances, and to then utilize these insights to make predictions on things to expect in the second half of the season. While some findings may seem likely, others may come as a surprise. Through some modeling, research, and analysis, here are some notable things we’ll be looking for in the second half of the season:
What Teams Are Likely to Regress?
The win/loss record of a team is among the most misleading statistics in sports. Yet, the problem with that statement is that teams are evaluated by their win/loss record, making this a mute point. However, the underlying thought remains the same: just because a team has the best record in the NFL does not mean they are the best team in the NFL. And, just because a team’s record indicates they are a playoff team does not make them a playoff-caliber team. This may appear counterintuitive, but the luck factor in the NFL is one that should not be underestimated. Overlooking teams that have had an incredible stretch of luck is a fallacy not to fall for; records are misleading when taken without additional context.
Cleveland Browns
Current Record: 5-3
The Cleveland Browns are my top choice for a team facing near certain regression in the second half of the NFL season. While the Browns 5-3 record may seem impressive on the surface, the truth is this team has performed much closer to a league average level. In fact, Cleveland’s exceptional performance in one-possession games, which we know is partially a luck-driven statistic, indicates the Browns are due to be on the short end of the stick going forwards.
To begin with, Cleveland’s resume of wins is underwhelming, to say the least. The Browns’ most impressive win came in their drubbing of the Indianapolis Colts, where their defense thoroughly dominated Philip Rivers and the Colts’ offense. However, the Colts are not a legitimate contender; they are a good team, but easily in the third or fourth “tier” of NFL teams. At the time, Cleveland’s victory over Indianapolis appeared to be a signature win indicating that this Browns team was different. Now, it blends in as a solid win, yet one that is far from a statement W.
Out of Cleveland’s four other victories, their opponents’ overall records are a combined 8-23-1 (including Cincinnati’s record twice), which is good for a 33.33% winning percentage. Even including Indianapolis’ record entering Week 10, that opponents’ winning percentage rises to 48.1%, which is a much better mark, but also indicates how heavily weighted that Indianapolis game is to their overall team perception. On the flip side, Cleveland’s losses have been to the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Las Vegas Raiders, who have a combined record of 19-5. Yes, Cleveland has faced a gauntlet of teams who they have ultimately lost to, but they also have not been particularly competitive in those games. The Browns have lost their games by a combined 73 points and despite their 5-3 record, have a -31 scoring margin, which is much more indicative of a 3-5 team rather than a 5-3 club. From a competitiveness standpoint, our numbers point to Cleveland ranking 16th in the NFL (in a weighted average of possession time within one possession or ahead by two), which is as average as possible. The Browns are much closer to a team hovering around a league average mark rather than a playoff berth and that should even out going forwards. Cleveland’s second half schedule is not frightening (their opponents’ win percentage is 42.4%), but with impending games against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee, it is definitely conceivable that the Browns hover around 8-8 or 9-7, which may not be good enough to clinch a postseason berth even with the extra spot. With proper regression, our model indicates the Browns are closer to a 7-9 team; while the model does not account for competition, it does indicate that heavy regression is on the way if Cleveland performs as they did in the first half of the season. Nick Chubb coming back healthy will be a boost to Cleveland’s offense, but I am not sure it is enough to buck their downward trend.
(As a bonus note here too, not only do we expect Cleveland to individually regress, but 6/8 remaining opponents are expected to either improve or remain constant the rest of the way, with the two opponents expected to regress as Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Cleveland’s win total the rest of the year is set at 9.5 and I love taking the under).
Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Record: 8-0
The Pittsburgh Steelers are an obvious choice for regression as they really have nowhere to go but down. After a nearly flawless first half of the season, cracks are starting to appear in Pittsburgh’s armor; they have won back-to-back games by defending a goal line pass, have had some timely turnovers in key areas of the field, and have narrowly escaped with multiple wins. It is easy to earn a “hater” label by nitpicking an 8-0 team and claiming they are not a top-3 team in football, but I legitimately believe the Steelers are still a step behind both the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens.
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ 8-0 record is highly misleading and while regression is a near lock just because the likelihood of a team going a flawless 16-0 is miniscule, regression will also occur because the Steelers have gotten incredibly lucky in the first half of the season. The Steelers are 5-0 in one possession games and based on my in-depth analysis of these games, I believe Pittsburgh should have lost at least two, and likely three, of those games. The Houston Texans led by two possessions for over 10% of the game only to lose by a TD, the Baltimore Ravens threw a pick six, another INT deep in their own territory, and were stopped inside Pittsburgh’s 10, yet only lost by 4, and the Dallas Cowboys led by two possessions for roughly 10% of their game as well, but a red zone turnover by Garrett Gilbert might have done them in. Remaining competitive is the biggest key in actually pulling off these close wins, but how many can Pittsburgh continue to pull out? Pittsburgh’s offensive DVOA ranks 15th in the NFL, and according to Sharp Football Stats, Pittsburgh has had a 47% success rate offensively, which is below the league average 49%. What is even more concerning about this mediocre offense is their lack of defensive competition so far; Baltimore ranks 5th in defensive DVOA, but 5/8 of Pittsburgh’s first half opponents ranked below average in terms of defensive DVOA. Against Baltimore, they only totaled 221 yards, yet somehow won the game. Pittsburgh’s middling offense is simply not good enough to magically expect Pittsburgh to continue and squeak out victories.
Currently, our model indicates that if Pittsburgh sees a regression to a 70% winning percentage in one-possession games (based on our predictions), then they would finish the year with 13.10 wins, but that would mean a 5-3 finish down the stretch. Saying Pittsburgh will regress does not mean the team will stumble to a 2-6 second half record, but it does mean this team should perform much closer to the mean. Pittsburgh has a relatively easy second half schedule, but they play a tougher schedule in terms of opponent defenses. Just to provide some perspective, the Steelers face three top six defenses in terms of defensive DVOA in the second half: Indianapolis (3rd), Baltimore (5th), and Washington (6th). They get very easy matchups against Jacksonville (32nd) and Cincinnati twice (29th), but it is very conceivable to expect the Steelers to play ultra-competitive games against elite defenses.
(As a bonus note here, the Cincinnati Bengals to win outright against Pittsburgh is one of my favorite bets this weekend. The Bengals have had an extra bye week to prepare, Pittsburgh may be without a few players who are on the COVID list, the Steelers have scraped out two close wins, and seem to be a bit fatigued after playing so many weeks straight. While Pittsburgh’s defensive line could wreak havoc here and Cincinnati is decimated in the secondary, I am expecting a massive game from Joe Burrow here.)
Buffalo Bills
Current Record: 7-2
The Buffalo Bills are a team that I believed is primed to stumble a bit down the stretch. Our adjusted model predicts Buffalo at 10.79 wins, which leads to a 4-3 record down the stretch. While that may not be truly stumbling, it would be a significant step down from their current pace, which is 12.19 wins. A nearly 1.40 win drop based on our regression is significant, making Buffalo a decent pick to slow down as we approach the winter months.
The Buffalo Bills have truly been one of the toughest teams to gauge this season. Early on, Josh Allen looked like a serious MVP candidate with massive performances and Buffalo clicking on all cylinders offensively. However, ever since the second half of the Rams game, Allen (and Buffalo overall) looked mediocre and at times, downright pitiful. Buffalo hit their stride against Seattle last weekend, but it took a ton of turnovers against Russell Wilson to secure the W. The Bills deserved to win that game and they played fantastic, but how different is that game if Russell Wilson does not throw an end zone INT? That game probably should have been a bit more competitive than the metrics suggest. The Bills were just 3-4 against above .500 teams last season, but they are already 4-2 against those teams this year, indicating a substantial step forwards for Josh Allen and the Bills’ core. However, Buffalo has played their fair share of close games; Buffalo is 5-0 in one-possession games and based on our metrics, they could easily be 3-2. A 5-4 team is vastly different, from perception standards, than a 7-2 club. Give Buffalo credit for their performance so far, but the 7-2 record is slightly misleading.
Buffalo’s biggest concern is their defense and, uncharacteristically, it has been below average this season. The Bills rank 17th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric, but they were at 23rd before their huge performance against Seattle a week ago. Buffalo’s run defense, in particular, has been poor despite facing only three strong run offenses in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Tennessee (and a solid one in New England). In those four games, Buffalo allowed, on average, 4.72 YPC. Buffalo’s second half schedule is much more forgiving regarding opponents’ rushing attacks, but this team has is bound to slow down in the “wins” department. The Bills have games against Arizona, Pittsburgh, New England, and Miami still remaining, plus a very good Los Angeles Chargers team. It would not surprise me one bit if our model is extremely accurate and Buffalo finishes the year 4-3.
What Teams Are Likely to Improve?
Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 2-6
For all the slack the Atlanta Falcons catch for their inability to seal a victory, the Chargers may be just as bad. L.A. has been, without a doubt, the unluckiest team in the NFL this season and while poor clock management does play a part, so does an uncanny ability to choke away victories. Sure, some may be self-inflicted, but even self-inflicted wounds should not be enough to cough away victories where the Chargers would be up by two possessions for over 25% of the game. In fact, the Chargers are 0-3(!!) in games this season where they lead by two possessions for over 25% of the game; how is that even possible?
The Chargers were 1-6 in one-possession games during the first half of the 2020 Season, but I actually projected them to go 5-2 in those games. That massive disparity alone indicates the Chargers are bound to improve enough to seriously overperform their current 4-win pace. In fact, our model estimates the Chargers to win 7.34 games this year, indicating a 5-3 finish to the year. In the post-bye week games, the Chargers have really allowed Justin Herbert to attack on first down and it has made L.A.’s offense incredibly explosive. L.A.’s second half schedule is significantly easier and features matchups against the Jets, Patriots, Falcons, and Broncos. While the game against the Falcons may truly be a showdown of teams who are begging to give the game away, L.A. is set up well to finish the year on a high note.
Baltimore Ravens
Current Record: 6-2
Seeing the Baltimore Ravens on this list may surprise some people, as it is odd for a 6-2 club to have actually underperformed in a season. However, that has precisely been the case for the Baltimore Ravens, who we project to win 13.95 games this season, the highest in our model. Once again, our model does not take into account strength of schedule or remaining competitors, but it is an accurate reflection of how a team performs in key indicators of wins. Simply put, the Ravens have absolutely dominated their competition this season, boasting the second best scoring margin in the NFL. The only team ahead of them is Kansas City, whose number is slightly inflated due to a dominant victory over the New York Jets. Baltimore, on the other hand, has had easy games against the Washington Football Team and the Houston Texans, but they have also been challenged by the likes of Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis. I think Baltimore and Kansas City are the 1A and 1B of the NFL, but the advanced metrics favor Baltimore as the best team in the NFL. They have the highest overall ranking in our weighted average by over four points, which is incredibly impressive considering Baltimore’s passing attack has been incredibly inconsistent. If Lamar Jackson can get clicking through the air again, this Ravens team has the outside potential to be even better than last year’s club, which would be quite the feat. Baltimore does face Tennessee next Sunday then Pittsburgh on a quick Thanksgiving turnaround, but after that, they could cruise home with a schedule that features Dallas, Jacksonville, the New York Giants, and two divisional games against Cincinnati and Cleveland. Running the table is certainly not out of the question.
As a final note on Baltimore, I think it is certainly reasonable to question if this team is truly great this year. While our analytics indicate they are (but not quite as good as last year), Baltimore has not passed the eye test this year. They were dominated by Kansas City for a solid chunk of the game and played sloppy in a narrow loss to Pittsburgh. Not only that, but Lamar Jackson has not built upon his electric MVP season from a year ago. According to advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference, Baltimore as a team (which is nearly 100% Lamar Jackson), have only seen 73.6% of their passes on target, which is the 6th worst percentage in the NFL. While Baltimore has struggled with drops earlier in the year, they are only slightly below average in that metric now. Within the past week, we have also heard some rumblings about “vanilla” play-calling from offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Lastly, Baltimore lost their offensive line lynchpin, Ronnie Stanley, for the season due to an ankle injury. The Ravens have really struggled to protect Lamar Jackson this season and are down their two top offensive linemen from a year ago, with Stanley out and Marshal Yanda retired. This week against New England is a great “get right” spot for Baltimore’s offense, but they need to start showing that offensive explosiveness on a consistent basis for the eye test to truly back up the analytics.
Minnesota Vikings
Current Record: 3-5
Hello, to the Minnesota Vikings? It seems like everybody gleefully wrote this team off after an early season drubbing at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts, yet since that point, Minnesota has boasted a 3-3 record with a +9 scoring margin. Remember, Minnesota laid an egg offensively early in the 2019 season as well and bounced back really strong to even win a road playoff game in the Superdome. While I was not immune from hopping off the Vikings’ train early in the year either, I was cautiously optimistic about the long-term outlook. Despite all odds, we list Minnesota as one of the biggest first-half underachievers and they are a great dark-horse playoff pick.
Currently, our model projects the Vikings to finish with 9.30 wins, which is probably a stunner to many. However, consider Minnesota’s first half performance with a wide lens. The Vikings were 2-2 in one-possession games, but I actually believe they should have went 4-0 in those games. Minnesota led Tennessee for the heavy majority of the game (and by two possessions for a decent chunk), yet lost on a 54-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal, and the Vikings dominated the Seahawks for much of the game before an epic collapse on a final two-minute drill by Russell Wilson. If Minnesota was 5-3 (which one could argue they should be), we would be seriously discussing them as a playoff threat. The Vikings have some extra work to do in the back half of the season now, but with the way their players have rapidly improved, it is not out of the question. Dalvin Cook has established himself as arguably the top running back in the NFL, Justin Jefferson has been the most impressive rookie who is not a quarterback, and Minnesota’s offensive line has really turned a corner. Not only that, but first-round defensive back Jeff Gladney has gone from a liability to a major asset in the secondary. The Vikings have a lot of momentum building in their direction and a favorable second half schedule. While Minnesota does have games against New Orleans and Tampa Bay remaining, they also get to face Dallas and Jacksonville, along with four winnable games against Chicago (x2), Detroit, and Carolina. Asking for Minnesota to finish 6-2 is a tall task, but with the way they have performed this year, it is not out of the question.
Full Projected Playoff Standings (By Model)
AFC
- Baltimore Ravens* (13.95 wins)
- Kansas City Chiefs* (13.69 wins)
- Tennessee Titans* (11.49 wins)
- Buffalo Bills* (10.79 wins)
- Pittsburgh Steelers* (13.10 wins)
- Indianapolis Colts* (10.52 wins)
- Miami Dolphins* (9.92 wins)
- Las Vegas Raiders (8.74 wins)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7.34 wins)
- Cincinnati Bengals (7.00 wins)
- Cleveland Browns (6.92 wins)
- New England Patriots (5.31 wins)
- Houston Texans (5.26 wins)
- Denver Broncos (4.97 wins)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3.48 wins)
- New York Jets (1.19 wins)
NFC
- New Orleans Saints* (11.73 wins)
- Seattle Seahawks* (11.14 wins)
- Green Bay Packers* (10.56 wins)
- Philadelphia Eagles* (6.62 wins)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers* (10.23 wins)
- Los Angeles Rams* (10.20 wins)
- Arizona Cardinals* (9.95 wins)
- Minnesota Vikings (9.30 wins)
- San Francisco 49ers (9.06 wins)
- Atlanta Falcons (8.01 wins)
- Chicago Bears (7.43 wins)
- Carolina Panthers (6.70 wins)
- Detroit Lions (6.37 wins)
- New York Giants (6.26 wins)
- Dallas Cowboys (3.45 wins)
- Washington Football Team (3.24 wins)
Favorite Futures to Bet On
Cleveland Browns Under 9.5 Wins (-110)
-I alluded a bit to this one earlier, but based on our model estimates, this seems too easy. We predict the Browns to finish with 6.92 wins and actually to finish last in the AFC North. The Browns are poised to really slow down to finish the year and are currently facing offensive question marks, with Baker Mayfield on the COVID list and Odell Beckham Jr. out for the season. Getting Nick Chubb back is huge for Cleveland’s dynamic rushing attack, but is Chubb’s return enough to offset some of those other concerns? I’m not sure, but I feel fairly confident saying that expecting Cleveland to duplicate their 5-3 start is incredibly optimistic. To get this at near even odds is a flat out steal in my opinion. Even if you are not an analytics fan, the Browns will need to beat Houston, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, and both New York teams to hit 10 wins, assuming they lose to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Tennessee. While it seems easy on paper, Houston could be a thorn in their side this weekend, while Philadelphia is likely to play them tight as well. Asking the Browns to essentially play flawless against inferior opponents to hit this gives them very little margin for error to pay off.
New York Giants Over 4.5 Wins (+140)
This is another of my favorite futures that I am keeping a keen eye on. For starters, our model projects 6.26 wins for New York, so to get over 4.5 at plus value makes this a lock. The Giants have been really competitive recently and one could make the argument they could be 5-4 at this point if they had held on against Dallas, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay. New York’s second half schedule is difficult; they face Seattle, Arizona, and Baltimore, but they also have a great shot to hit the over here. First, their performance so far has been much better than their record indicates. In fact, I would argue they are actually the best team in the NFC East (which is scary to think about), but the early season hole they dug themselves into may make it difficult for them to actually win the division. However, for this Giants bet to pay off, New York needs to beat three of Philadelphia, Dallas, Cincinnati, and Cleveland, assuming they lose to all the aforementioned opponents. Is it difficult on paper? Sure, but remember, New York gets Cincinnati post-bye, and teams traditionally perform better with the rest advantage. Also, we know that divisional opponents split their season series at decent clips, giving New York some hope for both the Philadelphia and Dallas games as well. Considering how competitive the Giants have been against Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams, I feel really confident in this team’s upward trajectory. Over 4.5 wins at that value is a phenomenal selection based on our model.
Minnesota Vikings Over 7.5 Wins (+115)
-Another bet I alluded to, but our model has Minnesota at 9.30 wins, making this another phenomenal pick especially getting it at plus value. The Vikings could easily be 5-3 at this point of the year and are certainly on an upward trajectory. This is buying high on Minnesota a bit here and they are due for a loss, but 7.5 wins seems too low of a total for a team performing this well and is poised to positively regress. Remember, the Vikings also have a favorable backend of the schedule, as outside of their two games against New Orleans and Tampa Bay, the Vikings may be favored in every other game. In essence, that is almost the oddsmakers implying they will win nine games, so why is this total at 7.5?
Others to Consider: Atlanta Falcons over 5.5 wins (+115), New England Patriots under 7 wins (-104)
Longshot Bet: New York Giants to Make the Playoffs (+1080)
-Look, I know many of you are likely in revolt over this suggestion, but I stand by my assertion that New York is the best team in the NFC East. If all teams were fully healthy, that would not be the case, but this season, New York has the highest overall score of any team in the division. That does not mean New York is “good” compared to the rest of the NFL (I have them at #21 in the NFL), but compared to the NFC East, they are. Philadelphia is ranked 25th, Dallas 30th, and Washington 32nd. As a reminder, this metric is a weighted average between the percentage of time a team spends within one possession of their opponent or leading by two or more possessions. (Our metric does think Washington is the worst team in the NFL, something I found surprising).
-Why do I like this pick for New York? Well, it is simple, but it all hinges on Sunday’s game with the Eagles, as a loss for the Giants makes it nearly impossible for them to win the division. If New York beats Philadelphia, the Giants will be 1.5 GB of Philadelphia for the division lead and looking ahead at Philadelphia’s schedule, it is tough to envision where they get 4+ wins. That likely puts Philadelphia around 6-7 wins, which is right in the range we predict the Giants to land. This is primarily a value pick here, as although the Giants are currently 16th in the NFC, I actually believe their odds should be much closer to +200 or +300 than +1080. Our model indicates the projections between New York and Philadelphia are razor thin, and while it is does not account for strength of schedule or predict individual games, it gives us that overall vibe of a team’s projected trend. A Giants win this weekend would drive those odds down and hopping on it at good value now is a decent idea.
*As a note of caution, the Eagles are coming off a bye week with the extra preparation time. This makes me very nervous surrounding New York’s prospects to win this weekend, but these odds are way too high in my opinion.
What Are Some Other Teams/Trends to Monitor?
Philadelphia Eagles
-The Philadelphia Eagles are a team I will have a close eye on in the second half of the season for a few reasons. First, our metrics have not been kind to Philadelphia this year; from a competitiveness standpoint, I have them as a bottom-10 team and I also believe they are currently slightly ahead of their projected win pace. This is important because Philadelphia’s first half schedule will be significantly easier than their second half. Philadelphia’s opponent win percentage so far is at 46.3%, but that is before additional context is added. If you remove the Pittsburgh and Baltimore games, that win percentage plummets to 33.33%. One could argue that is unfair to remove Philadelphia’s most competitive games to skew the statistics, but against a schedule that weak, the Eagles are 3-2-1, and their wins came against the San Francisco 49ers’ third string quarterback, the New York Giants, and the Dallas Cowboys’ third string quarterback. The Eagles are likely to win the division by default, but this team has been incredibly disappointing.
-In the second half of the season, Philadelphia’s opponent win percentage is at 51.52%, which is a major step up, especially considering nearly all of Philadelphia’s first half competition came against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Eagles really only have three easy games and they are all divisional battles. We could debate about the merits of a divisional system for years, but the Eagles are easily the biggest beneficiary of the current structure, and I would even argue that whatever team makes the postseason from this division would be the biggest beneficiary of the system in NFL history. This Eagles team could very well go 6-9-1, make the postseason, host a home playoff game, yet have a 1-8-1 record against all teams not in their division. They would likely be the only team in NFL history to have a 10% winning percentage against non-divisional teams and make the playoffs. I am not necessarily predicting that to happen, but it is certainly possible.
-One final note here is that I think the way Philadelphia finishes this season could drastically alter the off-season plans. Changes are coming regardless of this team making the playoffs or not, but if Philadelphia were to miss the postseason, how drastic would those changes be? I’d guess Howie Roseman would be out as general manager, but I also think Carson Wentz might follow him. Indianapolis may have a QB vacancy depending on Philip Rivers’ future and we know Frank Reich has a history with Wentz. With Jalen Hurts waiting in the wings, I think Wentz will be on the move this off-season, barring a sensational second half. Currently, Philadelphia has the second worst on target pass rate of any team in the NFL, ahead of only the Denver Broncos, who started a backup for multiple games. That is a brutal number. The Eagles are the clear favorite in this division; they are getting a lot of players healthy this week, their roster is superior to any team in the division, and have a slight divisional lead. If this team does not make the postseason, it would be a complete embarrassment given the circumstances.
Atlanta Falcons
-Here’s a shocking stat for you: by our competitive metric, the Atlanta Falcons have actually been the 7th best team in football this season. It is an indicator of how imperfect analytics can be, but one thing is clear: the Atlanta Falcons have performed at a much higher level than a typical 3-6 team. The Falcons have a penchant for epic collapses and this year has been no different, with Atlanta losing to Dallas, Chicago, and Detroit despite having their win probability eclipse 95% in every single game. If the Falcons win those three games, they are a 6-3 team, Dan Quinn still has a job, and Atlanta is a likely playoff club. It is incredible how things can easily change.
-The Atlanta Falcons are an interesting team to monitor for several reasons. First, interim coach Raheem Morris has done a really good job and should be under consideration for the permanent position. Morris certainly deserves another head coaching shot after stumbling with Tampa Bay at the beginning of the decade. Second, the Falcons are a team truly at a crossroads. I suggested last off-season that Atlanta should rebuild and that Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were surely to get a king’s ransom on the trade market. I still think that is the right move; does anybody really believe Atlanta’s roster, even with some minor additions, can win the Super Bowl? This core has had a great run and I understand the sentimental/legacy value of keeping Ryan/Julio in Atlanta for life, but from a team-building standpoint, I do not know how much merit that may have. A team looking for a quarterback and drafting out of the top-10 (Chicago, Indianapolis, San Francisco, maybe Pittsburgh) would surely give up a treasure trove of picks for Ryan. Ryan in San Francisco is actually a fascinating thought exercise considering Kyle Shanahan is Ryan’s former offensive coordinator and helped him win MVP in 2016. The 49ers have picks and young players to deal, making this a decent match in a hypothetical scenario. Julio’s market would be extremely robust as well, with teams like Seattle, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Baltimore, New England, and San Francisco all likely to be frontrunners in any possible Julio deal.
-While these thought exercises are fun hypotheticals, a lot hinges on how Atlanta finishes this season. Currently, our model indicates they are way below their projected pace; I have Atlanta finishing with 8.01 wins, while their current pace is at 6.84. The Falcons would have to go 5-2 to finish with eight wins which is a tall task, but for a team that should easily be 6-3, it is not so crazy. Atlanta’s second half schedule is absolutely brutal, with their remaining games being New Orleans (x2), Tampa Bay (x2), Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles, but I could see a scenario (albeit, an unlikely one), where they win four games. Is a 7-9 record, one where they would be 7-4 under Raheem Morris, good enough for Arthur Blank to run this team back again next year? It is interesting to consider, as Atlanta’s defense has performed significantly better since Morris took over and rookie cornerback A.J. Terrell has been fairly impressive this year. Could another off-season program and development turn Atlanta’s defense into a league average unit? How Atlanta finishes this season should impact what their off-season plan is. If the Falcons decide to sell, they will decide how the market moves this spring.
Los Angeles Rams
-As someone who proclaimed this off-season that, “Within the next five years, Los Angeles will be closer to the #1 overall pick than the Super Bowl,” I can admit I was wrong. The Los Angeles Rams have been quite impressive this season and while they were unlucky last year, this team seemed destined to continue and decline. Jared Goff took a significant step back last year, L.A.’s offensive line was bad, their roster construction was among the worst in the NFL, and they ate $38M in dead cap by getting rid of Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks. Despite all of this, the Rams are a playoff team as of now and according to our model, are performing as expected. This is not the case of an overachieving team, but rather, a very good NFL team that many of us may have discarded way too soon.
The question of how the Rams have been successful this year lies within their defense, which ranks 8th in defensive DVOA. First year defensive coordinator Brandon Staley has done a fantastic job with his schemes and he is doing this with limited talent. Everybody knows Aaron Donald (likely DPOY) and Jalen Ramsey, but who else can you name on L.A.’s defense? The Rams’ cap sheet is incredibly top heavy, yet their defense has performed at a very high level despite sporting a lot of little-known players. According to PFF’s player rankings, Darious Williams is their 11th highest rated corner, Jordan Fuller is their 13th rated safety, John Johnson III is their 9th rated safety, and Sebastian Joseph-Day is their 35th rated defensive lineman. They may not be household names, but the Rams have gotten elite contributions from defensive players outside of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, both of whom have lived up to their reputations this year.
-Interestingly enough, the Rams are having this defensive success in an unconventional way. The Rams’ pressure rate is around league average (20.8%) and their blitz rate is around league average as well. This is interesting because looking at the top defenses, many are among the top in pressure rate. Here’s a tabular look at the top-10 defenses according to DVOA and their pressure and blitz rates:
| Team | Pressure Rate | Blitz Rate |
| 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27.4% | 43.5% |
| 2. Pittsburgh Steelers | 36.1% | 42.1% |
| 3. Indianapolis Colts | 23.7% | 19.4% |
| 4. Chicago Bears | 19.9% | 21.7% |
| 5. Baltimore Ravens | 24.3% | 42.6% |
| 6. Washington Football Team | 25.7% | 28.3% |
| 7. New Orleans Saints | 23.7% | 28.9% |
| 8. Los Angeles Rams | 20.8% | 28.4% |
| 9. Denver Broncos | 27.1% | 29.8% |
| 10. Arizona Cardinals | 22.4% | 40.0% |
-While the Rams hover around average among blitz rates in the top-10, they are significantly lower in pressure rate. The Rams’ secondary and defensive style has been a huge part of this; L.A. is allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt this season (5.7), and Aaron Donald’s elite ability allows the Rams to drop more guys into coverage. The Rams’ defense is for real and outside of their game against the Buffalo Bills, that unit has been absolutely dominant this season. If the Rams make the postseason this year, this team could quickly rise in people’s eyes again. Their cap situation is still a mess, but their penchant for developing young talent is readily evident and they could try and make some noise again this spring.
The Chirp 