The 2020 NFL Season is officially in full swing, as 32 games have already been completed, yielding some interesting results. In a year that has had twists and turns at every turn of the calendar page, it is fairly surprising that a sport as unpredictable as football has been fairly “chalky” to start the year. Favorites have won at a ridiculous 67% clip, the likely Super Bowl contenders such as the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks, and Green Bay Packers have looked fantastic, and while a few teams like New Orleans have stumbled a bit to start, they have had positive moments mixed in. The ridiculous rash of injuries we witnessed in Week 2 will hopefully be an abnormality, but with a shortened and atypical off-season, there does seem to be some concern regarding the health of players over a sixteen game season.
Despite the relatively expected start of the NFL campaign, we have had some of those 2020-esque moments built in. Tyrod Taylor suffered a punctured lung after a team doctor tried to give him a pregame injection to relieve some pain for his two cracked ribs, the Atlanta Falcons blew a massive lead (although, that is not unique to just 2020), and we even had Bill Belichick showing up a press conference in a tattered sweatshirt that screamed 2020. Considering the typical nature of football and sports in general, a lot more uncertainty should be approaching in the coming weeks.
We are only 1/8 of the way done with the NFL regular season, but as always, it is never too early to analyze some of the trends we have seen so far. Today, we are going to break down some early 2020 observations and utilize historical betting data to find some edges to attack this week (and in the future), to go along with specific picks you should be eyeing for Week 3.
Early Notes & Observations from 2020
For those of you who read our offseason articles breaking down the 2019 NFL Season, you know we believe wins are not a perfect representation of a team’s play. Yes, wins are the ultimate decider and should be treated as such, but through analysis, it is also apparent that a 6-10 team could actually be better than a 10-6 team, even if their record does not show it. This season, we are introducing some new metrics: “dominance rankings”, “competitive rankings”, and “overall rankings”, based on a formula derived from weighted averages. For example, we determine a team’s dominant ranking by weighing the percentage of the game the team is leading by two possessions or more and the percentage of the game the team is within one possession to find a value. For our overall score, that is comprised 55% of a team’s dominant ranking and 45% of a team’s competitiveness ranking (which is 50/50 split between “dominant” time and “competitive time”). Here’s a graphical summary of our top-10 teams so far in 2020, and our bottom 10:
As for the top teams, it is no surprise the Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers top the list, as both clubs have been dominant to kick off the year. However, the teams that are surprising include the San Francisco 49ers (#5, 1-1 record), New Orleans Saints (#8, 1-1 record), Indianapolis Colts (#9, 1-1 record), and Atlanta Falcons (#10, 0-2record). Now, this can be explained. First, San Francisco has been either within one possession, or leading by two possessions, for 100% of their minutes this season. While they lost to Arizona Week #1, as we consistently preached this off-season, one-possession games are primarily a luck-based statistic; they could easily be 2-0 right now. New Orleans was fairly dominant against Tampa Bay to start the season and while they lost to Vegas Monday night, they still led by two possessions for nearly 25% of the game. Indianapolis was highly competitive against Jacksonville (entire game was within one possession), but they were dominant against Minnesota. The interesting team is Atlanta, who is on this list in large part because they dominated the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. We are working with a small sample size here which makes an extremely dominant game or two weigh heavily, so Atlanta appearing on the list may just be a sampling “glitch” due to only two games. However, they should be 1-1.
While there are some surprising qualifiers among our top-10, our bottom-10 may seem relatively straightforward. Houston has ranked as the 3rd worst team, although their nightmarish start against Kansas City and Baltimore does not help matters. Dallas being on the list might be a slight surprise, but remember, the data is highly sensitive only two games in. Additionally, considering how unlucky Dallas was last season, it is good to see the law of averages come into play and finally reward them with a lucky win of their own.
A final important statistic to note is this: through two games, only nine teams have had 100% of their game time be labeled “competitive”, which we define as the game being within one possession, or a team leading by two possessions. Those teams are as follows:
- Baltimore Ravens (#1 dominant rank, #1 overall rank)
- Buffalo Bills (#3 dominant rank, #3 overall rank)
- San Francisco 49ers (#5 dominant rank, #5 overall rank)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (#8 dominant rank, #6 overall rank)
- Seattle Seahawks (#10 dominant rank, #7 overall rank)
- Indianapolis Colts (#12 dominant rank, #9 overall rank)
- Los Angeles Rams (#14 dominant rank, #11 overall rank)
- Tennessee Titans (#19 dominant rank, #16 overall rank)
- Los Angeles Chargers (#21 dominant rank, #18 overall rank)
The team that intrigues me the most in that group? The Los Angeles Rams. Collectively as a team at The Chirp, we were fairly low on Sean McVay’s squad entering the year. I even went so far as to say they’ll be closer to the #1 pick than to a Super Bowl in the next five years. I am not ready to eat my words yet, but they have played close to a top-10 level despite facing off against a great Dallas Cowboys team to follow up with a cross-country trip to dominate the Philadelphia Eagles. They have been really impressive to start.
Historical Betting Data: Picking up on Trends
While the primary purpose of this article is to highlight some historical betting data to inform strategy for Week 3 (and possibly beyond), illustrating team performances to begin the year is important context. Some betting trends may be present that are eager to pounce on, but misleading team performances is an edge we are always prime to capitalize on at The Chirp.
So far, there have been a few betting trends that are particularly noticeable to point out, as they vary widely from historical records. For reference, we are utilizing data from 2014-19 as our historical data, utilizing both averages and medians to compensate for a somewhat small sample size. Let’s take a tabular look at some current trends before we break them down more in-depth:
| Bet Type | 2014-19 Win Percentage (Avg.) | 2020 Win Percentage | Difference |
| Underdog Outright Win | 34.02% (34.22% median) | 25.00% | -9.02% |
| Home Underdog Outright Win | 36.85% (36.52% median) | 27.27% | -9.58% |
| Home ATS Win | 46.92% (47.05% median) | 53.13% | 6.21% |
| Home Underdog ATS Win | 49.23% (49.20% median) | 54.55% | 5.33% |
| Over Win | 47.99% (46.82% median) | 62.50% | 14.51% |
As mentioned in our intro, underdogs have won at a paltry clip prior to previous seasons. Just last week, we saw just one underdog win: the Las Vegas Raiders. That is nearly unheard of, and while 7/16 underdogs won on opening weekend, this was a rather drastic regression. The historical data tells us this “chalky” start to the season will not last and I’d hedge strongly that we see a flurry of underdog victories going forwards. Remember, it is still early in the season and records are always a bit misleading. The oddsmakers may lean a bit too much into two-week performances, giving us an advantage. In particular, home underdogs are a specific area of interest for me. They are winning at a much lower clip than in previous years and while some may argue that is because there is no true home-field advantage this year, I disagree. As one can see, home teams, particularly underdogs, are covering the spread at a higher clip than normal and have won outright at a higher clip than normal (59.38%). Eventually, those statistics will move closer to the mean, providing a genuine opportunity for individuals who buy into statistical concepts. For reference, in order for 2020’s underdog win percentage to equal the 34.02% average we witnessed from 2014-19, underdogs would need to go around 8-8 or 9-7 this week; that is highly unlikely, of course, but it further emphasizes the amount of underdogs who will need to win over the coming weeks to even the statistics out. Is it a guarantee that roughly 34% of underdogs win outright this year? Of course not, but if history is any indication, it is incredibly likely that underdogs will win outright between 32-35% of the time and considering their current clip is 25%, I’ll be riding the underdog wave going forwards.
Another trend to mention revolves around home teams and covering the spread at a higher clip than normal. It is interesting to see that, particularly among home underdogs, as many home ‘dogs have been able to keep games close but unable to seal the deal at the clip we’re used to seeing. Only three home underdogs have won outright this year: Jacksonville, Los Angeles (Rams), and Vegas. Home underdogs are 3-8 outright, but 6-5 against the spread. Among the eight home underdogs who have lost, we have Miami (who lost by 3 to Buffalo in a highly competitive game), New York (beaten by San Francisco), Cincinnati (lost by 3 to Los Angeles in a highly competitive game and missed a game-tying FG), Houston (beaten by Baltimore), Denver (lost by 2 to Tennessee in a highly competitive game), Los Angeles (lost by 3 to Kansas City in a highly competitive game), New York (beaten by Pittsburgh), and Carolina (lost by 4 to Vegas in a highly competitive game). To be completely honest, it really is not a stretch to think home underdogs could realistically be 8-3 outright this year if a few breaks went their way, but they did not. Home underdogs are another edge I will be relentlessly pursuing over the coming weeks until we see an evening out of the data.
Lastly, the final notable betting trend surrounds game totals. The great Warren Sharp wisely pointed out a few weeks ago that this season most closely resembles the lockout of 2011, where there was a shortened preseason and training camp. In 2011, the overs hit at a ridiculous pace early before leveling off closer to the historical numbers around 45-50% we typically see. Currently, a similar trend has emerged, and Sharp deserves a ton of credit for pointing it out before anyone else (it’s why he’s great). Over the past six seasons, overs have hit, on average, 47.99% of the time, but 4/6 seasons, the number has hovered closer to 46.8%. Currently, overs are hitting way above half the time. Tackling has been exceptionally poor, that is somewhat expected with limited contact practices and full-speed movements. I will be hedging heavily on the fact that teams will clean up their defensive miscues which, in turn, will slowly bring game totals lower and lower. Before there is an adjustment in the lines, however, I will be picking on a fair share of unders.
Reading the Board: Week 3 Best Bets
As a caution, historical data is great and betting with a statistical insight creates an advantage. However, data should not be the sole purpose of selecting bets. There needs to be some merit to the team’s performance as well. With that being said, here’s some games I’ll be eyeing, especially considering some of those trends that are bound to reverse going forwards (all odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook):
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3, O/U 47.5
From a first look at the totals, this is one I am liking to attack. According to Pro Football Focus, the Chicago Bears have two of the best cornerbacks in football so far this season in rookie Jaylon Johnson (PFF’s #3 CB) and Kyle Fuller (PFF’s #24 CB). Per usual, Atlanta has been a pass-heavy team, ranking 5th in pass play percentage. However, this week may be more difficult. Julio Jones is battling a hamstring injury and may not play, and while Calvin Ridley has been fantastic to start the year, he’ll certainly garner more attention and possibly a double team if Julio is out. Chicago’s defense is certainly capable of slowing down Atlanta, as the Bears rank 6th in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Matt Ryan has been crazy hot and efficient to begin the year, but I’m not sure how long that lasts, especially if Julio Jones were to miss this contest.
The Atlanta Falcons have been a mess defensively to start, but they have been particularly vulnerable through the air, as Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott have torn them apart to begin the year. It is unlikely Atlanta will give up 35+ every single week and considering the likely run of lower-scoring games we will see, this seems like a decent spot to bet on them somewhat containing an opposing offense. While Mitch Trubisky has been fairly impressive to begin the year, he had to make many tough throws to pull off a miraculous win against Detroit and they barely beat the New York Giants a week ago. Chicago has scored a total of 44 points this year, but 38 of those points came in three quarters. Chicago’s offense has been incredibly hot or cold to begin the year, they play at a slow pace, and prefer to run the football. I’m not sure who actually wins this game, but I do like attacking this total and opting for the under.
The Pick: Under 47.5
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings
Line: Titans -2.5, O/U 49.5
This is a game I’m planning on targeting, but considering how Minnesota has looked this year, I am a tad bit uneasy about getting on the Vikings bandwagon this weekend. However, I’ll likely be hopping on board, because I think a few things will work in their favor. First, they are a home underdog and that is an edge I will certainly be looking to attack. Minnesota has been horrible this year, but to be honest, Tennessee has struggled as well. The Titans barely skated by Denver and Jacksonville and rank 16th in our overall rankings and 19th in our dominant rankings. While Minnesota has performed like a bottom-3 team in the NFL so far, their offense was pitiful to begin last season as well and this seems like a decent spot for them to get right. Tennessee is a run-heavy team and while Minnesota gave up a big number to Jonathan Taylor last week, they have actually been hovering around average on a yards-per-carry basis. Anthony Barr’s injury is a huge loss and the Vikings are still without Danielle Hunter, but I believe another week of continuity should serve them fairly well. Minnesota’s secondary is a major cause for concern, but Tennessee is not a pass-heavy team. Ryan Tannehill was incredibly efficient against Jacksonville last weekend, but the Jaguars secondary is not as good as Minnesota’s.
As for Minnesota, the Vikings’ offense was horrendous against Indianapolis last week, but they actually ranked 1st in yards per play Week 1. They tore Green Bay apart, the problem was they made a plethora of bad mistakes to end the first half that put them in a bind. Last weekend was more of an anomaly than anything. Minnesota has ranked 4th in YPC this season and Dalvin Cook has yet to be fully unleashed. Tennessee’s rushing defense has been among the worst in the NFL this season, ranking 29th in opponents’ yards per carry despite facing Denver and Jacksonville. I think this is a prime breakout spot for Dalvin Cook, who found a little groove in garbage time a week ago. If Minnesota can establish Cook early, it’ll open up some of those bootleg, play-action passes that have been a Gary Kubiak staple for years. Tennessee has struggled to defend tight ends this season as Noah Fant and Tyler Eifert have both found the end zone this year against the Titans. This seems like a decent “get right” spot for the Vikings and a prime bounce back opportunity for Kirk Cousins. With the statistics and trends on our side as well, I think the Vikings win this game outright.
The Pick: Minnesota ML (+114)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -5.5, O/U 55
This will be the last game I preview, as we have plenty more to be released in our Week 3 Podcast (along with a few other exclusive podcast picks). However, I wanted to emphasize this game because I have been on the Detroit Lions hype train all off-season and to be honest, nothing I have seen from them the first two weeks has made me jump off, yet. The Lions had an inexcusable collapse Week 1 against Chicago, but they were among our top-10 most dominant teams after that performance. Detroit got beat fairly badly by Green Bay a week ago, but the game was not as lopsided as the final score indicates. According to our metrics, Detroit has been an average team this season. On the flip side, our metrics indicate Arizona is a top-5 team right now, with a highly competitive victory over San Francisco followed up with a dominant win over the Washington Football Team. However, this will be Matthew Stafford’s first game this season with Kenny Golladay and possibly Halapoulivaati Vatai as well. Those two would be a big boost for the offense.
There are a few reasons why I like the Detroit Lions here. First, Arizona’s outside corners have struggled this year despite facing below average competition. Detroit has an underrated duo of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., but they also have T.J. Hockenson and the Cardinals have been the worst defense against tight ends over the past two seasons. Arizona has also struggled against the run and the Lions have found some success on the ground to begin the year. Detroit’s offense can do a lot of damage and I think there’ll be plenty of opportunities for them to pick on Arizona’s lackluster defense.
Arizona’s offense has been fairly strong to begin the year, but perhaps not as explosive as we anticipated. Arizona has ranked 21st in yards per play and while they have faced two solid/strong defenses, there have been some struggles. Kenyan Drake has yet to get going and their offensive line is still a question mark. Detroit’s defense has been horrible to begin the year, but they contained the Chicago Bears for 75% of the game before Mitch Trubisky repeatedly made special throws in the 4th quarter. Last week, however, Detroit’s defense was primarily shredded by Aaron Jones, but the defense as a whole was not abhorrent aside from a play or two. This is a team that has been on the wrong end of so many unlucky moments the past 16+ games and I think this line is too high for my liking. Arizona has yet to face an offense with not only the firepower that Detroit possesses, but also the relative health of the Lions’ unit. San Francisco was banged up entering the game and lost George Kittle early on and Washington’s offensive grouping is uninspiring. This is a major test for an Arizona defense that has underwhelmed so far this season and I think this line is a bit too high for my liking.
The Pick: Detroit +5.5 (like Detroit ML at +200 as well)
The Chirp 