Without a doubt, the most entertaining first round series of the NBA Playoffs has been the battle between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks. With the Clippers becoming the NBA’s newest super team, few people (if any), doubted their ability to make a deep playoff run. Prior to the start of this series, it seemed that if this team didn’t make the NBA Finals, this season would be a massive disappointment. Los Angeles possesses some of the best defenders on the planet, two elite superstars who also happen to arguably be two of the top-5 two-way players in the NBA, and a plethora of talented role players who were a part of winning, overachieving teams prior to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard’s arrival. The Clippers’ roster is light years ahead of where the Dallas Mavericks’ roster is, yet despite this, one could make a very legitimate argument that it should be the Dallas Mavericks ahead 2-1 in this series, not the Los Angeles Clippers. Outside of the first half of Game 3 and the first six minutes of Game 1, the Dallas Mavericks have thoroughly outplayed the Clippers. Don’t believe me? Well, take a look at the numbers. Dallas outscored the Clippers by eight after they fell down 18-2 in Game 1 (despite having Kristaps Porzingis ejected) and in the second half of Game 3, despite Luka Doncic’s injury limiting his minutes, the Mavericks outscored the Clippers by six. In essence, the Mavericks have had a hold on the Clippers for roughly 80% of this series, yet they’re losing.
With a monumental Game 4 approaching today, I’m going to break down some of the key things the Mavericks need to focus on to win and general areas of focus for both teams. Obviously, the major cloud looming over this game is Luka Doncic’s ankle sprain, which has somehow been diagnosed as “mild”. It looked like a nasty sprain that would keep Luka out for weeks, yet it feels like there is a real chance he plays on Sunday. Regardless, I don’t think the Mavericks should be counted out. Remember, the Mavericks beat Milwaukee and Philadelphia on the road without Doncic earlier this season and should have beaten the Toronto Raptors as well before blowing a 30-point lead in the fourth quarter. Rick Carlisle is arguably the best tactician in basketball and he always has his players in a position to succeed. The offense will certainly dip a bit; I mean, after all, Luka Doncic is a MVP candidate for a reason. However, expecting Dallas just to lay down and allow the Clippers to march over them is ludicrous. Regardless of Doncic’s status, this should be another entertaining game.
Focus #1: Trey & Boban vs. Lou & Montrezl
While all of the focus on the Clippers surrounds Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, everyone is very cognizant of the Clippers’ dynamic duo off the bench of Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Williams and Harrell run one of the cleanest pick-and-rolls in the NBA and that duo has, at times, been basically unguardable. Yet, prior to Game 3, the Mavericks hadn’t just contained Williams and Harrell, they had stymied them. In Game 1, Harrell and Williams combined for 20 points on 6-15 shooting and in Game 2, the duo combined for 33 points on 11-17 shooting. While they certainly got going in Game 2 statistically, they were fairly ineffective overall on the court: Williams was a 0 in the +/- department, but Harrell was a -15, the second worst on the team behind JaMychal Green (-21). However, in Game 3, they were both dominant and effective, combining for 23 points on 8-13 shooting while being positives for the majority of the game. Williams and Harrell started to get going, in large part, because they avoided two of Dallas’ key bench players: Trey Burke and Boban Marjanovic.
When guarded by Trey Burke this series, Lou Williams is shooting 50%, which is an extremely good mark. However, it pales in comparison to the work Williams has done against different Mavs’ defenders. Williams has shot above 50% for the entire series (which is not sustainable), but Burke has certainly held his own defensively, aggressively fighting through screens and making life difficult for Lou Williams. Truthfully, outside of a few touch fouls by Burke in Game 2, Williams hasn’t been able to win that matchup. Burke has the third highest net rating on the Mavs this series (+5.0) while Lou Williams has been basically a net zero on the court. Now, there are a few bright spots for the Clippers with this, namely the fact that Lou Williams has been outplayed by Trey Burke and they’re still up in the series, but also a negative, in that Lou Williams has been outplayed by Trey Burke despite shooting over 50% from the floor. That simply cannot happen, especially considering Burke has had a poor defensive reputation his whole career and you should be taking advantage of it. Considering how efficient Williams has been overall and his importance to the Clippers, he needs to dominate this matchup, not get outplayed.
While the Burke/Williams matchup is a key one to monitor, another one holds massive importance: Boban Marjanovic vs. Montrezl Harrell. This is a matchup the Mavericks really seem to like as even during the regular season, Rick Carlisle would deploy Boban to guard Harrell. During the regular season, Harrell never scored against Marjanovic and also struggled to defend him, as Marjanovic dropped in 10 points in only 5.5 minutes when defended by Harrell. This is a matchup the Mavericks really like and the numbers tend to agree. Through the first three games of this series, Harrell is 2-4 when defended by Marjanovic, but 7-12 against all other defenders, including 5-6 against Kristaps Porzingis. The numbers against Porzingis are particularly noticeable, as that was the matchup the Clippers were able to exploit last game. Harrell seemed to be energized by his early spats with Luka Doncic, but his physicality and seemed to overwhelm Porzingis at times. Frankly, it’s hard to physically overwhelm Boban and something I noticed on film is that Boban sinks much deeper into the paint when guarding Harrell than Porzingis does. Doc Rivers adjusted his rotations a bit more in Game 3 to deliberately get Harrell on the court with Porzingis and it worked. I’d like to see the Mavericks adjust more and while it is unrealistic to match Boban and Montrezl’s minutes, getting Boban on the court more with Harrell is the best option for the Mavericks (Boban is also 4-6 when guarded by Harrell).
Focus #2: The Ivica Zubac Adjustment
Ivica Zubac destroyed the Dallas Mavericks this year, including a monster 21 point, 15 rebound showing in the seeding games where Zubac was a perfect 10-10 from the field. However, in Games 1 & 2 of this series, Zubac was a complete non-factor, logging a total of 40 minutes and accumulating just 13 points (6-11 shooting) while grabbing 14 rebounds. That changed in Game 3, where Zubac played 30 minutes in that outing alone and was very effective with 15 points and 6 rebounds while posting the highest plus/minus rating on the team. The Mavericks have only three bigs in their rotation with Kristaps Porzingis, Boban Marjanovic, and Maxi Kleber, making them vulnerable to physical centers down low. Zubac mentioned before the series started how he thought he could overpower Dallas physically and while that didn’t materialize early on, he did exert his will at times in Game 3.
The Clippers had Ivica Zubac primarily guard Maxi Kleber in Games 1 & 2 of this series, but for Game 3, Doc Rivers made an adjustment and started Zubac on Dorian Finney-Smith. Essentially, the Clippers wanted to keep Zubac inside and force Luka Doncic to drive into him, something that happened according to plan. While Luka was uncharacteristically timid going at Zubac and had multiple layups rim out, the defensive game plan worked, as Dallas’ offense was stuck in the mud for the first half. The Mavericks rarely used Finney-Smith as the primary screener for Doncic, meaning that Zubac would sag into the paint and if Luka drove, he never got all the way to the rim because of Zubac’s physical presence. This clogged up a few passing lanes and while Dallas missed a ridiculous amount of shots in the first half, the game plan worked.
Going on to Game 4, regardless of whether or not Luka plays, the Mavericks have to attack Zubac with whoever he is guarding. If Rivers chooses to put Zubac on Finney-Smith, the Mavericks will either have to use Finney-Smith as the primary screener or be more assertive attacking Zubac inside. Far too often the Mavericks settled in Game 3 and a lot of it was because they were afraid to drive with a full head of steam at Zubac. What would happen is that when Luka would attack the basket and not shoot the layup against Zubac, Zubac would switch onto him and in those scenarios, Luka settled for the three every single time. That cannot happen next game: the Mavericks desperately need Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber to make perimeter shots, but they also need to be more assertive. Zubac is an elite defender on shots within six feet of the basket, so the Mavericks need to find ways to pull him away as much as possible. I think a lot of that is making him defend in space by forcing him to guard the P&R, but it would help if Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber improved on their current 5-25 mark from 3-PT range in this series.
Focus #3: Bad Defensive Luck
The Dallas Mavericks have played their best basketball on the defensive end of the court all year during this series, something I was incredibly skeptical of entering this battle. Dallas’ defense was by far the worst of any team (including the Wizards) during the seeding games and they looked disinterested on that end of the court. However, it’s been a complete 180 in this series as the Mavericks are completely locked in. A ton of credit goes towards Rick Carlisle and his staff for a fantastic game plan, but the players, many of whom are not known for their defensive prowess, have executed it near flawlessly. The Clippers are shooting just 48.0% in this series and posted an offensive rating of 108.9 in the first two games of this series, well below their regular season mark of 113.3. While the Clippers had a day on the offensive end of the court in Game 3, a lot of it was making nearly every shot in sight, many of them difficult looks. Over 50% of Los Angeles’ shots in this series have either been defended “very tight” (nearest defender within 0-2 feet of the shooter) or “tight” (nearest defender within 2-4 feet of the shooter). Truthfully, that’s very good defense (by comparison, the only 41% of Dallas’ shots have been very tightly or tightly defended).
Despite Dallas’ strong defense, it is unfathomable to realize that the Clippers are knocking down 50.0% of their shots which are very tightly defended and 52.3% of their shots which are tightly defended. Now, it should be noted that very tightly defended and tightly defended shots are usually around the basket which are higher percentage looks anyways, but this is some poor luck for the Mavericks. For reference, during the regular season, the Clippers shot just 45.5% on very tightly defended shots and 50.7% of tightly defended shots. It is within reason to expect that if Dallas continues this level of defense, the Clippers’ shooting will regress. After all, the team was unconscious during Game 3, connecting on 52% of their shots including a 41% mark from deep. Here’s an overall look at how their shooting splits differ from the regular season and postseason:
| Shot Type | Regular Season % | Postseason % |
| Very Tightly Defended (0-2 ft.) | 45.5% | 50.0% |
| Tightly Defended (2-4 ft.) | 50.7% | 52.3% |
| Open (4-6 ft.) | 43.6% | 42.4% |
| Open (4-6 ft.) 3-PT | 35.8% | 35.2% |
| Wide Open (6+ ft.) | 43.1% | 47.6% |
| Wide Open (6+ ft.) 3-PT | 39.8% | 44.7% |
To dive in deeper, one player on the Clippers in particular has been doing a lot of damage to the Mavericks: Marcus Morris. During the regular season, Morris shot 40.0% from deep on wide open threes, yet in the postseason, that number has skyrocketed upwards to 62.5%. Now, it’s not ideal to give up wide open shots at all, but it’s also inconceivable to believe Morris will continue this hot spurt, even on fantastic looks. It is important to note Paul George is only shooting 18.2% on wide open threes this series (Playoff P has arrived) compared to 48.0% in the regular season, so that is also likely to positively regress. However, look how much better the Clippers have shot on wide open looks even with Paul George being horrible; that is frankly, a lot of lucky shooting for the Clippers. That may seem like a controversial take: after all, these are professional NBA players, how could them knocking down a large chunk of wide open shots be lucky? When comparing it to the regular season and seeing that sizeable of a jump, no factor magically makes a team shoot better in the postseason. Sure, maybe a player is a better postseason performer (like Kawhi Leonard), but there is no quantifiable proof of a “postseason performer trait”. Truth be told, the Mavericks have gotten unlucky with L.A.’s shooting so far even with Paul George’s “Playoff P” spell. For reference, here’s a look at Dallas’ shooting dashboard this series:
| Shot Type | Regular Season % | Postseason % |
| Very Tightly Defended (0-2 ft.) | 48.1% | 46.7% |
| Tightly Defended (2-4 ft.) | 50.4% | 50.5% |
| Open (4-6 ft.) | 43.3% | 50.0% |
| Open (4-6 ft.) 3-PT | 35.5% | 35.8% |
| Wide Open (6+ ft.) | 42.1% | 45.2% |
| Wide Open (6+ ft.) 3-PT | 39.6% | 42.9% |
The Mavericks have certainly seen some jumps as well (namely to their open shooting), but these numbers seem slightly more sustainable than Los Angeles’ leaps. For example, Seth Curry and Tim Hardaway Jr. were elite wide open 3-PT shooters in the regular season and while Curry especially has been ridiculously hot to start, THJ’s numbers have been relatively even. Imagine if the Mavericks got Dorian Finney-Smith (33.3% on wide open postseason 3-PT attempts) and Maxi Kleber (11.1% on wide open postseason 3-PT attempts) to knock down their shots. Based on what we know about statistics and regressing to the mean, it seems likely that Finney-Smith, Kleber, and Paul George will eventually all get into a shooting rhythm while Marcus Morris and Seth Curry cool off a bit. That’s a key storyline I’ll be watching: is there a shift in which shooters are hot during this series? If Morris cools off, the Mavericks are in fine shape, especially since they could be up 2-1 despite his ridiculously hot start.
As a final note on this, I wanted to touch on Luka Doncic’s greatness. In the regular season, 54.1% of Dallas’ shots were either labeled as “open” or “wide open” by NBA.com (the source of all the above statistics). That is a ridiculous mark and in the postseason, despite going up against a team that has an overload of defensive talent, 58.6% of Dallas’ shots have been labeled as either “open” or “wide open”. Luka is without a doubt a top-5 offensive player in the NBA and probably even higher. For reference, 55.1% of Houston’s shots in the regular season were either “open” or “wide open” and 58.9% of their shots in the postseason have that distinction.
Bonus Notes: Other Things to Watch
Note #1: Dallas Needs More From Its Starting Five
Entering the season, it was foolish to believe this current Mavericks’ roster could seriously compete this year. However, three games through this series, I think it is evident that while Dallas lacks the top-tier role players that the very elite teams have, the Mavericks can certainly compete. Their current roster has a capped ceiling and we have seen it at times throughout the season and a little but during Game 3, where they were a bit overwhelmed in the second quarter, but despite their shortcomings talent-wise, this is a very good basketball team. It sure is a lot of fun to let your mind wander and realize what this team could look like after 2021 free agency.
With all that being said, the Mavericks can certainly push the Clippers and even beat them, despite being down 2-1. The Mavericks should arguably be leading this series, so counting them out would be making a mistake. However, the Mavericks cannot win this series unless their starters outside of Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic step up. Dallas’ bench has been tremendous and despite some of the issues in their starting five, Dallas has still registered an offensive rating of 115.4 this series, nearly identical to their record-breaking 115.9 mark in the regular season. Dallas has practically an even net rating this series despite Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith being non-factors offensively and Tim Hardaway Jr. registering the worst net rating on the team (outside of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who has played limited minutes). It is easy to read all that and imagine a scenario where Kleber, Finney-Smith, and Hardaway Jr. were all playing near their best. In that case, you could make a legitimate argument that Dallas may be fully dominating this series.
Getting out of that dream for a second, the problem is that Kleber, Finney-Smith, and Hardaway Jr. are not playing near their best, which has been a problem for Dallas. In this series, those three are shooting a combined 40.4% from the floor and 29.9% from 3-PT range. I documented Finney-Smith and Kleber’s wide open 3-PT% above and while Hardaway Jr. has maintained his regular season number, he has been a negative while on the court for Dallas. Let’s break down each player individually.
Maxi Kleber
Although Maxi Kleber’s offense has largely deserted him in this series, he deserves a ton of credit for the defensive work he has done on Kawhi Leonard. Entering this series, many people believed Dallas lacked two defenders to capably guard Paul George and Kawhi Leonard at the same time. The Mavericks have largely put those worries to rest, with a little bit of help from Paul George’s disappearing act, but also because of fantastic defense. When guarded by Maxi Kleber, Kawhi Leonard has shot just 43.6% from the field and 23.1% from 3-PT range, truly elite marks. Kleber has been criminally underrated for the past two seasons and nobody has acknowledged the job he has done in making life difficult for The Klaw. Compare those numbers to Leonard’s overall marks, where he has shot 51.5% from the floor (but just 23.5% from the 3-PT line) and it’s evident Kleber’s presence is huge in this series. Kawhi will almost certainly start knocking down more of those “open” 3-PT looks (he’s shooting just 20% on those in the postseason compared to 35.5% in the regular season), but Kleber has made things difficult in general. His presence is important.
With all that being said, Kleber has been another player who registers a negative net rating, which is a problem. One thing that makes Kleber so valuable on the offensive end of the court is his ability to space the floor. During the regular season, Kleber shot a career-high 37.3% from 3-PT range, including 38.0% on corner threes. Kleber registered as a slightly above average 3-PT shooter, but in the postseason, he is shooting 9.1% from 3-PT range. He’s bound to have a good shooting game eventually, but the Mavericks cannot really afford to wait. As mentioned, the Clippers started to suffocate Dallas’ dribble penetration last game and when that is the case, the Mavericks will need guys to step up and hit their perimeter shots. Dallas can simply ill afford for Kleber to be a non-factor offensively. The Mavericks got him involved early in Game 2 with a first possession alley-oop slam and I’d like to see Dallas engage him offensively early on in Game 4. Running a set to get him rolling hard to the rim could be a start, but the Mavericks need him to find his shot and quick. I have plenty of confidence in Kleber’s ability to do so; after all, our statistical concepts tell us he’s a lock to improve and get closer to his career average of 3-PT% (which is 35.5%). Maybe that means he gets crazy hot the next few games. In a small sample size like a best-of-7 series, it’s also conceivable he never breaks out and struggles all series. Dallas’ offense has been electric all year when Luka (or whoever) has been able to drive and kick to open shooters. If those open shooters start missing, the offense naturally fails. Getting Kleber going should be a priority for Game 4.
Dorian Finney-Smith
Dorian Finney-Smith deserves a similar intro to Maxi Kleber, one that praises his defensive performance. While Kleber has been stellar against Leonard in this series, Finney-Smith has been even better, holding Leonard to 41.7% shooting from the field and limiting him to just three total 3-PT attempts, all of which he missed. Finney-Smith has guarded Leonard the second-most on the team, so this isn’t just a fluke of a small sample. Leonard is only 5-12 when guarded by Finney-Smith, but he also has more turnovers than assists and has generally struggled. Finney-Smith held Leonard to 48.4% shooting when he defended him in the regular season, so while he isn’t as good as Kleber (who was just as lockdown during the regular season when defending Leonard), he still does an admirable job. Finney-Smith has been Paul George’s primary defender in this series and he’s played him very well, holding George to 25.0% shooting, including 0-4 on 2-PT attempts. George is knocking down 37.5% of his 3-PT attempts when guarded by Finney-Smith, but Dorian’s overall defense has been huge in slowing down the two-headed monster for the Clippers. However, like Maxi, his offensive struggles are ultimately holding this team back a bit.
During the postseason, Finney-Smith has shot just 28.6% from 3-PT range, a steep drop from his regular season mark of 37.6%, which was a career-high. Like Kleber, Finney-Smith is shooting a poor percentage on wide open threes, a correction he must make quick. The Clippers have been giving up a large amount of open threes per game to Finney-Smith and Kleber; if they can knock down their shots, the Mavericks’ offense would be nearly impossible for the Clippers to defend. As said with Maxi, our statistical concepts tell us Finney-Smith will likely shoot closer to his season averages, but with such a short series, it’s possible he goes in a mini slump here. Perhaps it’s the metaphorical “smaller rim” of the postseason that is getting to him and Kleber and I’m sure the lack of confidence is playing a role, but getting these guys in rhythm is essential for Dallas in order to win this series. The Mavericks need Finney-Smith’s offense.
As a quick last note on DFS, he is a tremendous offensive rebounder and he’s averaging over an offensive rebound per game in this series. I’d love to see him aggressively attack the glass more often next game; he’s a complete tone-setter when he grabs a big rebound and I think little plays like that could also boost his offensive confidence and keep him engaged.
Tim Hardaway Jr.
When watching Tim Hardaway Jr., the thing most evident to me seems to be how much he is pressing. It feels like whenever Hardaway Jr. takes a dribble it eventually leads to a shot for himself, which isn’t the type of offense Dallas should be running. Hardaway Jr. is the type of player who can get in an unstoppable zone so while I don’t always mind him trying to activate his microwave upgrade, I think it comes at inopportune times. Unlike Kleber and Finney-Smith, Hardaway Jr. has actually been really good from 3-PT land, knocking down 39.3% of his attempts during this series. THJ was one of the best catch-and-shoot players in the league this year (97th percentile in spot-ups) but in this series, he’s been going off the dribble a bit too much for my taste. I also feel as if he isn’t creating for his teammates enough in the half court setting, but once again, considering his playing style, you have to give a little.
It’s hard to understand why Hardaway Jr. has the second worst net rating and worst plus/minus of any Maverick in this series, but I have a few guesses. It’s primarily because he’s usually paired with either Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber, two players who have bogged down the offense, lowering everyone’s impact numbers. While the analytics haven’t been kind to him, he has not gotten enough credit for his defensive work this series. When guarding Paul George, he has held PG13 to 30.8% shooting and 14.3% from deep. While it may seem like a fluke, he actually held George to an identical shooting percentage in the regular season. Maybe THJ has Paul George’s number, but he’s had a really strong defensive series. On the flip side, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have both been incredibly effective when guarding Hardaway Jr. (THJ is a combined 6-19 when guarded by either player), but I think there’s an edge to be had if the Mavericks can get Landry Shamet on THJ, a matchup that has occurred somewhat frequently. Although THJ is only shooting 40% against Shamet, he showed the ability to blow by him; as long as he doesn’t settle, that’s a matchup I’d like Dallas to exploit more frequently.
More Starting Five Notes
When Ivica Zubac is guarding either Maxi Kleber or Dorian Finney-Smith, the two have combined to go 0-6 from 3-PT range. That’s a number that really needs to start breaking in Dallas’ favor to force Zubac out of the paint to open up driving lanes when he’s on the court.
One thing I did want to mention is the matchups the Clippers have commonly used with the starting fives. L.A. has had Marcus Morris guard Luka, Landry Shamet guard THJ, Zubac guard Finney-Smith, Leonard guard Porzingis, and George guard Kleber, with a lot of switches mixed in on the perimeter. An interesting note is that the Mavericks have actually shot an incredibly high percentage with Kawhi Leonard as the primary defender, something I don’t anticipate remaining the case, but worth noting. Across the board, I think the majority of these matchups are advantageous for the Clippers. During this series, Dallas’ starting five has an offensive rating of just 100.0, a pitiful mark. However, their starting unit has an elite defensive rating of 91.9, giving them a positive net rating overall. On the flip side, Los Angeles’ starting five (that has Shamet over Beverley) has an offensive rating of 115.4 and defensive rating of 90.0. That’s certainly a cause for concern and a statistic Dallas better hope to reverse. It starts with better 3-PT shooting from Maxi and DFS and forcing Zubac to defend on the perimeter.
What Lineups Should Dallas Deploy if Luka Sits?
Interestingly enough, Dallas’ two most effective lineups in this series have not included Luka Doncic, which is an indicator to me that I believe the Mavericks can compete even if Luka is unavailable. Based on net rating and with a decent amount of minutes played together, Dallas’ most effective lineup has been Trey Burke, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, and Kristaps Porzingis. That lineup has registered a ridiculous offensive rating of 156.3 with a stingy defensive rating of 93.9. That lineup will almost certainly be deployed heavily if Luka is out, as it’s actually Dallas’ second most frequently constructed group this series. The amount of dribble penetration and shot creation Dallas has in this backcourt makes them dangerous and considering Los Angeles’ difficulty stopping Dallas’ drives, it’s easy to see why.
If Doncic doesn’t start, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rick rolls out J.J. Barea. Personally, I really like the Seth Curry and Trey Burke duo off the bench and I wouldn’t want to mess up the Burke/Lou Williams matchup. Barea’s postseason acumen makes him a solid choice to run the show for the first stretch of game time, especially when he can guard Landry Shamet. Barea barely played this season so it’s tough to see how he’s performed with the current starters, but we could gain some insight from Jalen Brunson’s performance with this group. In a lineup that featured Brunson, Hardaway Jr., Finney-Smith, Porzingis, and Kleber, the Mavericks posted an offensive rating of 117.5 and a defensive rating of 94.0. In very limited minutes, a lineup of Barea, Hardaway Jr., Curry, Finney-Smith, and Porzingis registered an offensive rating of 165.0 and a defensive rating of 75.0. I’d be interested in seeing that lineup often and although I don’t love the idea of starting Seth Curry, I wouldn’t be opposed to it with that group. Dallas needs more spacing and improved shooting in that starting five unit and adding Curry would certainly do the trick. Considering Hardaway Jr.’s success against Paul George and Finney-Smith’s work on Kawhi, it’s possible that group could survive against LA’s offense, although Seth Curry would likely guard Marcus Morris, which has been a nightmare matchup so far. With that being said, if the Dallas wanted to go all-in on believing Marcus Morris will struggle soon, then I do not hate the idea.
When examining the lineups, the thing that jumps out to me the most is the units with the most shot creation in them have performed the best. The duo of Trey Burke and Seth Curry have a net rating of 43.0 this series and really any duo that involves Seth Curry has been electric. With the Clippers collapsing upon the paint, you need those shooters in the lineups. Interestingly enough, the worst duo, based on a fair amount of minutes, has been Tim Hardaway Jr. and Luka Doncic, sitting at a net rating of -23.5. Frankly, no pairing among members of the starting five has been particularly good. If Luka Doncic is healthy enough to start, I’m really interested to see if Rick mixes up the rotation anyways to add in more shooting. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Seth Curry got the start on Sunday and I’d generally be fine with it, so long as he’s still able to share the floor with Trey Burke for a large period of time.
Consensus and Final Thoughts
Considering how I thought the Dallas Mavericks would perform in this series, it’s been a pleasant surprise to see them competing this well. This team is clearly ready for the bright lights of the postseason and like I’ve said in the past, regardless of what happens in this series, this year has been an incredible success. Luka Doncic has developed into a legitimate top-10 player in the NBA, Kristaps Porzingis has found his place alongside Luka to form a legitimate dynamic duo to build a title team around, Tim Hardaway Jr. has exceeded expectations, and role players like Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Seth Curry all took substantial jumps forward. I think a lot of people forget how dominant this team was with Dwight Powell on the court and if he and Jalen Brunson were healthy, this team would look much different. There’s plenty to be optimistic about for the future and seeing their competitive spirit in this series, I’ve truly been incredibly proud and happy of this team.
With all that being said, while I don’t think Dallas is out of this series, it’s always been an uphill climb. The Clippers are bound to cool off a bit from downtown, but Paul George hasn’t really gotten going and, whether we believe Dallas should’ve won Game 1 if Porzingis wasn’t wrongfully ejected, the Mavericks are down in this series. Now, with Luka hurt, it’s 100x more difficult to win 3-of-5 games against a team many view as the best in the NBA. I have plenty of hope though, however, for a few reasons I pointed out. The Clippers will likely have a mediocre shooting game coming up, Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith should rediscover their 3-PT shot soon, and Dallas has practically outplayed the Clippers for around 60-80% of this series. There’s certainly bright days ahead for the Mavericks, but I think there are plenty of bright days available right now, starting today. This game could determine how long their season lasts, making this the biggest outing of many of these guys careers to this point. Let’s make it happen.
The Chirp 