Welcome to The Chirp’s NBA Playoff Preview, where we will be breaking down each playoff series with insights, things to watch, and an ultimate prediction. In this post, we take a look at the #4 vs. #5 matchup in the Eastern Conference between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat.
In a league that has placed such a premium on pace and perimeter shooting, it is refreshing to see teams opt for a different style. That’s what the battle between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat will be, a series that may resemble the games we saw in the 2000s and 1990s rather than the high-octane games that have become the norm in the latter half of the past decade. Both teams rank in the bottom-10 in pace and above average in defensive rating, giving this an old-school type of vibe. In my opinion, neither coach in this series gets enough credit, as both Erik Spoelstra and Nate McMillan have done fantastic jobs this season. A lot of us believed Miami was a year or two away from being a serious playoff threat, but now you’d be mistaken to not include them in the group of legitimate contenders. The Heat’s culture is well-documented, but the emphasis on player development is among the best in the entire league. Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, and Kendrick Nunn have all taken monstrous steps forward this year. As for Indiana, this was a team that had their superstar, Victor Oladipo, suffer a devastating torn quad last year and witnessed an exodus of players on a very good team. Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young, Tyreke Evans, Wesley Matthews, and Cory Joseph all departed and while the Pacers made good additions this summer (T.J. Warren, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, T.J. McConnell, etc.), this was a team that had to adapt to basically a brand new rotation without their best player. It should not have come as a surprise that Nate McMillan did more with less; after all, so many people wrote Indiana off after the Paul George trade, yet they’ve been a postseason team every year since that deal. Nate McMillan and Indiana’s culture deserves a lot more national media attention than they have currently received.
Indiana Pacers
Unfortunately, the Indiana Pacers have yet another year with brutal postseason luck. Two years ago when facing off against the Cavaliers in Victor Oladipo’s first year, LeBron James got away with what seemed to be a goaltending call to hit a buzzer-beating three, giving Cleveland a 3-2 series lead (they won in 7). Last year, Indiana didn’t have Oladipo and played Boston competitively in three games, but ultimately were swept. This year, the Pacers lost standout big man Domantas Sabonis to a foot injury and Jeremy Lamb tore his ACL earlier this year. It’s such a shame Indiana can’t catch any health breaks the past two years, because they’re a dangerous team that I think can make some noise. Now, it should also be noted that T.J. Warren is battling a foot injury and we still aren’t sure how healthy Victor Oladipo is. Oladipo is certainly healthy enough to play and has looked good in Orlando so far, but I’m not sure he’s 100% coming off that brutal quad injury. The Pacers are a very cohesive team and they always play tough. They may be at a disadvantage here due to injuries, but they won’t quit.
Offensively, the most obvious part of Indiana’s game is their lack of 3-PT shooting. The Pacers had the lowest 3-PT rate in the NBA this season and in this series, the 3-PT ball will be incredibly important. Miami’s defense is built in the same mold as Milwaukee and Toronto’s to “protect the paint and corner threes” at all costs, which should give Indiana plenty of open threes. Although the Pacers don’t shoot many, they have plenty of capable shooters from deep. T.J. Warren has been stupid hot during all the seeding games and shot 40.3% for the year from 3-PT range, Malcolm Brogdon knocked down only 32.6% of his attempts, but he’s a career 38.6% shooter, Doug McDermott is a certified sniper, and Victor Oladipo has been a solid shooter throughout his career. The Pacers did utilize P&R sets to a high degree in the regular season and are among the better teams in screen assists. Considering their plethora of shot creators in Brogdon, Warren, and Oladipo, it’s not terribly surprising they run an efficient P&R offense. However, without Domantas Sabonis, their offensive upside is extremely capped. Indiana has started JaKarr Sampson at times and while they may opt to start Justin Holiday in this series, the Pacers are without their best roller and interior finisher. The Pacers love the mid-range shot in general and without a roller in Sabonis, they may opt for more of those inefficient shots. Indiana may need to get a little uncomfortable and go for threes instead of long twos in this series.
Defensively, the Pacers have been strong all year and they have a legitimate anchor down low in Myles Turner. Indiana ideally wants to funnel everything towards Turner’s length at the rim, but they’re also incredibly stingy on the perimeter, as both Oladipo and Brogdon have graded out positively defensively over their careers. The Miami Heat shoot a high number of threes and are the second best shooting team by percentage this year, indicating Indiana has their work cut out for them on handoffs and spot-ups. Miami utilizes handoffs more than any team in the NBA, but Indiana has been above average defending them. Considering the defensive chops of the Pacers’ perimeter defenders, this could be a very fun battle. The Pacers have been fantastic defending the 3-PT line this season, ranking 4th in opponent 3-PT%. Indiana rarely gives up open threes as well, making this a really intriguing defensive battle. Both teams’ offensive strengths play into their opponents’ defensive strengths; these could be some pretty low scoring games in the bubble.
Miami Heat
The Miami Heat have been a pleasant surprise this season, primarily due to the rise of the three aforementioned players Adebayo, Dunn, and Robinson. I think we all expected Miami to be a serious threat in the 2021-22 season, where they’d have ample amounts of cap space during the summer of Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, their timeline is a bit ahead of a schedule and while Miami’s role players are a major reason why, I think Jimmy Butler is the most unappreciated player in our game. Butler’s reputation took a massive hit because of his blowup in Minnesota, but everywhere this guy has gone, he’s won. His story is incredible: Butler was homeless as a teenager after his mom kicked him out of the house, he was a two-star recruit, went to Marquette, and worked tirelessly to become the star player he is today. I’m a huge Jimmy Butler fan and he’s the guy you want on your team any day of the week. People misunderstand his desire to win as brashness and toxicity, but if you look how snugly he’s fit into Miami’s culture, one thing is apparent. Jimmy Butler isn’t the problem, it’s the team’s cultures he has been a part of that are.
As mentioned, Miami’s offense has been among the most spaced out in the NBA. The Heat shoot and make a lot of threes despite Jimmy Butler becoming a non-shooter this year. The Heat play Butler, Adebayo, and Derrick Jones Jr. substantial minutes and all three are below average or non-shooters. For them to be as good as they are from deep is surprising. A lot of it is due to Duncan Robinson’s elite offensive skillset, whether it’s coming off a screen, a standstill spot-up, or on handoffs. Robinson is a major key to their offense and Indiana will surely be locked in on him. One thing I am intrigued by is Jimmy Butler, who was so good for the 76ers in pick-and-roll sets during last year’s postseason. Miami runs pick-and-roll a good amount largely because of Goran Dragic, but I think Butler could have a massive series. Indiana has been fantastic against the pick-and-roll this year, but who do they have who can matchup with Butler’s size? If they put T.J. Warren on him, we’ll be in for some good content, but from a basketball standpoint, Warren would certainly lose some of his offensive energy. Maybe JaKarr Sampson gets a shot if he starts, but I think Butler could takeover this series.
Defensively, Miami’s style plays right into Indiana’s offensive weaknesses. The Heat want teams to take deep, inefficient shots and the Pacers operate in the mid-range more than a lot of other teams. Miami has arguably the best mid-range defense in the NBA, making this a tough matchup for Indiana. I think the Pacers will need to play a lot of shooters, whether that means Doug McDermott or Justin Holiday. Indiana has the necessary shooting to take advantage of Miami’s defensive scheme, but whether or not they utilize their shooters is a different story. The one area Miami has a weakness is defending opposing backcourts. Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, and Kendrick Nunn are not elite defenders and considering Indiana has a strength with shot creation, these will be interesting battles to watch. If the Pacers win this series, it’ll likely be because Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo severely outplayed Miami’s backcourt. That is certainly a plausible scenario and frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened.
X-Factors
Indiana Pacers: Justin Holiday
In our NBA Playoff Preview podcast we discussed X-factors for this series, so I’ll quickly run through them here. Although I listed McDermott as my X-factor in the podcast edition, I actually think Holiday is the better pick. Indiana will need Justin Holiday’s two-way play in this series, especially since he’s likely to check Jimmy Butler at times this series. I’m not sure putting Holiday on Butler is the best move, but he’ll likely get some minutes on him. However, Indiana will need Holiday to outplay one guy: Duncan Robinson. Holiday will likely cover Robinson most of the time as he’s been outstanding against shooters, but Holiday is a good shooter in his own right, hitting 40.5% of his attempts this year. He’s a big player for Indiana, especially with no Sabonis.
Miami Heat: Kelly Olynyk
One of the biggest keys to scoring on the Pacers is to mitigate Myles Turner. Turner is an elite defender when he’s parked around the rim, but he’s not an impact player otherwise. Just from anecdotal memories during games I’ve watched, Turner isn’t great in space. That makes Kelly Olynyk of incredible importance this series, as his ability to knock down perimeter shots could be huge. Forcing Turner to guard Olynyk should open up driving lines and back cuts for some of Miami’s best shooters. Simply put, Olynyk’s ability to space the floor opens everything up. If Olynyk gets hot and forces Turner to really commit to defending him 20+ feet from the basket, Miami’s offense should gain a strong rhythm here.
Outlook
Overall, I think this will be an incredibly competitive and fun series. We know we have beef going in between T.J. Warren and Jimmy Butler and that alone should make every game a must-watch. I wish Indiana was fully healthy, but they should still battle hard with Miami here. I cannot wait to watch these games.
As for my prediction, I have a tough time believing Indiana can score enough to win this series. Their offensive style plays right into what Miami wants their opponents to do, making this a very tough matchup. I can certainly envision Indiana making shots at a high clip, but doing it consistently will be tough against Miami’s defense. Ultimately, I think this is a back-and-forth series that goes seven games, but at the end of the day, I think Jimmy Butler and Miami’s defense is the difference.
Prediction: Heat Win Series 4-3
The Chirp 