Welcome to The Chirp’s NBA Playoff Preview, where we will be breaking down each playoff series with insights, things to watch, and an ultimate prediction. In this post, we take a look at the #1 vs. #8 matchup in the Eastern Conference between the Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic.
Given the unique circumstances surrounding the NBA’s resumed season, it does not appear as if many teams will face serious pressure this year. However, if there is one team that faces an immense amount of pressure, it is the Milwaukee Bucks, the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and the team who finished the year with the best winning percentage in the NBA. With Giannis Antetokounmpo’s free agency looming larger by the day, Milwaukee needs to not only make a run in the postseason, but a deep one. While Giannis himself has never discussed his future free agent plans, it is only right for fans, pundits, and NBA Twitter members galore to speculate, with rumors driving Giannis to teams like Golden State, Miami, Toronto, Los Angeles, and New York. The question of whether Giannis can win in Milwaukee is a real one, particularly after the Bucks collapsed in the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago despite taking a dominant 2-0 lead over the Toronto Raptors and nearly winning Game 3 as well. Simply put, anything less than a NBA Finals appearance will be a disappointment for Milwaukee and only add more fuel to the rumors that Giannis may be seeking out a new team.
Before we start thinking about the NBA Finals, the Bucks have to get by the Orlando Magic first. The Magic are connected to Milwaukee in a way, as Orlando’s current general manager John Hammond was the Bucks’ GM for a while and drafted Giannis. Hammond was an integral figure in compiling some of the key pieces of Milwaukee’s team and since coming over to Orlando, he has put a heavy emphasis on one thing: length. Like he did in Milwaukee, Hammond is obsessed with long, agile players who are often raw on the offensive end of the court. Jonathan Isaac, Chuma Okeke, and Mo Bamba were all Hammond draft picks, along with raw wings like Wesley Iwundu and Melvin Frazier. The Magic certainly have the length and athleticism to match Milwaukee, but whether or not they have the requisite offensive firepower is the real question. Orlando ranked 23rd in offensive rating this season and ranked 27th in true shooting percentage as a team. Not only that, but the Magic rank 26th in 3-PT%, a crucial statistic we will be sure to touch on more. The Magic have some weapons to throw at Giannis Antetokounmpo, whether that be Aaron Gordon, Wesley Iwundu, or opt to guard Giannis with a big like Nikola Vucevic. However, their offensive performance will be the ultimate determinant in how competitive this series can be.
Milwaukee Bucks
Not only did the Bucks have the best record in the NBA during the regular season, but they also had the greatest point differential by a wide margin. On average, Milwaukee beat teams by 10.4 PPG, a number that is incredibly impressive and speaks to the underrated greatness of this team. For reference, the 73-win Warriors posted a scoring margin of 10.8 their season. Milwaukee was so dominant this season that Giannis Antetokounmpo barely topped 30 MPG, which pales in comparison to other superstars around the league. For Giannis to put up a 30/14/6 stat line in only 30 minutes is frankly ridiculous and a main reason why he is the prohibitive MVP front-runner. I’m not sold on Giannis being the best player in the NBA, but it is hard to argue against his MVP candidacy, even with LeBron James having another phenomenal season.
While Giannis Antetokounmpo is the engine that drives Milwaukee, it has arguably been the play of his supporting cast that has held this team back come postseason time. Khris Middleton is an ideal co-pilot for the Greek Freak and he is finally getting the national respect he deserves. However, the Bucks are going to be looking at Eric Bledsoe to be an impact postseason performer, something he has been incapable of doing since being traded to Milwaukee. Bledsoe is a very important player to the Bucks, as he gives them a tertiary playmaker capable of bulldozing through smaller guards or creating his own offense. Yet, in the past two postseasons, he has been woefully inefficient, shooting just 42.0% from the floor and 25.0% from 3-PT range. Bledsoe has never been a fantastic shooter or even an incredibly efficient player, but the numbers are a steep drop from his regular season career statistics with Milwaukee, where he’s shot 48.0% from the floor and 34.0% from 3-PT range. To be honest, the Bucks probably don’t need Bledsoe on his “A” game to beat the Magic, but they will need him in subsequent rounds. Getting him going against Orlando, especially when the Magic have D.J. Augustin on the court, could be a massive boost to his confidence. It’s also important to note that Bledsoe has been getting his conditioning up to steam in the seeding games after being diagnosed with COVID-19, so that could be something to watch as well.
The unique thing about Milwaukee is their defense, which ranked #1 in the NBA this season. Milwaukee’s defensive scheme funnels everything towards the paint and Brook Lopez, who has undergone a mid-career crisis to morph into one of the most valuable 3-and-D players in the NBA. Lopez has been an elite rim-protector the past two seasons and this year he is contesting the most shots per game in the NBA with 19. Considering opponents are shooting a meager 52.6% within five feet with Lopez defending, it is no wonder why Milwaukee’s defense has been so dominant. However, something we have seen this year is that the Bucks are vulnerable to the 3-PT shot, which is a deliberate tactic of their defense. Opponents’ three point attempts, on average, account for 41.8% of their attempts against Milwaukee, the third highest mark in the league (behind only Miami and Toronto). While the Bucks give up a ton of threes, a concerning trend is they also give up a large percentage of wide open threes. On average, 22.3% of opponents’ three-point shots are wide open, yet teams only have shot 37.5% on those attempts, which is right around league average.
During the regular season (prior to the seeding games), Milwaukee only lost 12 games. However, a good chunk of the teams they lost to were very good at knocking down wide-open threes. Take a look at this graph illustrating it, with the highlighted teams opponents Milwaukee lost to:
Looking at the graph, over 50% of Milwaukee’s losses were against teams that shot either above average or average on wide-open 3-PT attempts (they lost to Denver and Miami twice). In the bubble, Milwaukee also lost to Dallas (above average), Toronto (2nd), Houston (below average), Brooklyn (below average), and Memphis (above average). Not only that, but in Milwaukee’s losses prior to the bubble, they allowed teams to shoot a combined 194/467 from 3-PT range, good for a remarkable 41.5% clip. If you remove the outlier where the Lakers shot 18%, opponents’ shot 43.2%. For reference, those marks would have easily ranked at the bottom of the league if maintained for a whole season. Now, obviously the Bucks are elite and a major reason why is because teams do not always shoot at an extremely high clip, but the way to beat this defense is with perimeter shooting.
While this might seem a bit critical of the Bucks, the truth is this is a dominant team that should be hungry since they have plenty to prove. Milwaukee never found a good rhythm in the seeding games and Giannis even got a suspension for a vicious headbutt. However, outside of the exceptional shooting, the best way to beat the Bucks has been to effectively stonewall Giannis, something that is much easier said than done. It should also be noted that Milwaukee was 4-0 against the Magic this season and beat them by an average of 17 points per game.
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic are a promising team, as they have an intriguing crop of young talent and a roster filled to the brim with long, athletic players. We know how much John Hammond loves wingspans and while he has perhaps placed too much of an emphasis on raw, unpolished, but athletic wings, something is getting built in Orlando. However, this is a team which is coming in short-handed into their postseason series. Jonathan Isaac is out for the year after suffering a torn ACL in the seeding games, Mo Bamba is leaving the bubble for a post-coronavirus examination, and Al-Farouq Aminu is still out from an early season injury. The Magic still have a solid group of players that includes Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Markelle Fultz, D.J. Augustin, Terrence Ross, James Ennis, Khem Birch, and others, but without Isaac, I’m not sure they face much of a chance against Milwaukee. However, the Magic play hard and have a great coach in Steve Clifford and they will not roll over. If nothing else, this should be a physical series with an emphasis on defense and athleticism.
Orlando’s offense for the season was well below average, ranking 23rd in offensive rating. Orlando’s offense has been around average in their seeding games, but a large reason why is because the Magic went off against Sacramento, Brooklyn, and New Orleans, three poor defensive teams. The lack of shot creators for Orlando has been a problem for years now, especially since their front office continues to emphasize athletic, long, defensive-minded wings over explosive scorers and shot creators. The Magic do not have any players who are consistent 1-on-1 threats; while people may believe that Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, and D.J. Augustin can consistently create good looks in isolation settings, the numbers illustrate that is not the case. Evan Fournier, who ranks the best out of those three, is in the 30th percentile in isolation plays this year. Fournier has had a career year, averaging a career-high 18.5 PPG while shooting 39.9% from 3-PT range. The Magic will need him to be special throughout this series for them to have a chance.
The one player I’ll have a particular eye on is Markelle Fultz, whose gifted athleticism and physical tools could allow him to be an X-factor in this series. Fultz is a fantastic defender and could handle Eric Bledsoe (or even hold his own against Khris Middleton at times), making him a valuable piece for Steve Clifford to deploy in the series. However, Fultz will have to be an offensive threat, something he has struggled with so far. The majority of Fultz’s attempts come within 16 feet and considering Milwaukee’s strategy is to funnel everything towards Brook Lopez, Milwaukee’s style directly clashes with Fultz’s play. Fultz is too valuable for Orlando to keep off the court, but without the proper spacing around him, he could be a hinderance to an offense that seems bound to struggle in this series anyways. The best way to beat Milwaukee is from 3-PT land, and the Magic rank 21st in 3-PT reliance and 25th in 3-PT%. Orlando needs to hope that Terrence Ross, D.J. Augustin, and Evan Fournier can get hot from deep.
While the offensive outlook for Orlando is bleak in this series, the Magic will be reliant on their defense to maybe steal a game or two. Orlando’s defensive rating is the 11th for the season, but there is a caveat. Remember, Jonathan Isaac is out for the series and with Isaac on the court, Orlando’s defensive rating is 103, a number which would rank 2nd in the NBA. Isaac would have been an invaluable piece for this series, but instead, Orlando will have to get creative. Aaron Gordon seems like a lock to guard Giannis, but determining who checks Khris Middleton could be interesting.
X-Factors
Milwaukee Bucks: G-Eric Bledsoe
Truth be told, the Bucks do not really have an “X-Factor” in this series. They should win fairly easily, but Eric Bledsoe is the key player for them to get going. As mentioned, Bledsoe’s playoff track record with the Bucks has been pitiful and they’ll need him in subsequent rounds, whether it is against Indiana, Miami, Boston, Philly, Toronto, or even Brooklyn. The Magic have been fairly stingy against point guards all season, but D.J. Augustin is a poor individual defender and when he’s on the court, giving Bledsoe some easy baskets could certainly boost his confidence. Milwaukee won’t need the best version of Eric Bledsoe in this series, but they will going forwards.
Orlando Magic: G-Terrence Ross
Considering Milwaukee’s penchant for giving up 3-PT shot attempts, Orlando will need guys to knock down shots. Terrence Ross has the ability to go for 30+ any night and the Magic will need his best performances of the season to remain competitive here. Ross has been slightly below average from 3-PT range this year (35.1%) and he hasn’t been particularly good in his postseason career, but the Magic need him to turn it around. Milwaukee has been average in 3-PT defense to wings this year, making this a prime opportunity for Ross to get hot. Orlando will need his offense to win some games.
Outlook
At the end of the day, even though the Milwaukee Bucks struggled in the seeding games, I have little doubt this team will be ready to play. Orlando was 3-5 in the seeding games overall, but 1-5 after Jonathan Isaac’s injury. They simply lack the necessary offensive firepower to be a serious playoff threat. I think they can make things difficult for Milwaukee offensively, but where does Orlando generate offense from? The Magic are not reliant on scoring in the paint (which is a positive for this series), but they are not a particularly good 3-PT shooting team either. Orlando generates a lot of points via turnovers, but how many turnovers can they generate without Jonathan Isaac?
Anything can happen in the postseason, but I would be stunned if the Magic can win more than a game in this series. I would not be stunned, however, if the Magic were able to steal a game. Remember, this was a team that beat the Toronto Raptors in Game 1 last year because D.J. Augustin got crazy hot and it is not ridiculous to think that Terrence Ross or Evan Fournier could get in a zone and outshoot Milwaukee’s 3-PT centric defense. However, the Bucks have a massive talent and schematic advantage, Orlando has limited players who can realistically check Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton at the same time, and the Magic have struggled recently. I think the Bucks end up sweeping this series: at the end of the day, this should not be a terribly tough task for Milwaukee.
Prediction: Bucks Win Series 4-0
The Chirp 