Welcome to The Chirp’s NBA Playoff Preview, where we will be breaking down each playoff series with insights, things to watch, and an ultimate prediction. In this post, we take a look at the #2 vs. #7 matchup in the Eastern Conference between the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets.
After years of suffering from the “yips” in the postseason, the Raptors broke through in triumphant fashion last season, winning the franchise’s first NBA Championship. Although Kawhi Leonard is now on the West Coast, this Raptors team has not missed a beat this season, continuing their strong play, particularly on the defensive end of the court. Head Coach Nick Nurse is arguably a top-3 coach in the entire NBA and he really boosted his profile through his utilization of exotic, high-school level defenses in the NBA Finals last season which included a box-in-one and triangle-in-two. The Raptors defense has remained elite this season, ranking 2nd in defensive rating. Toronto has a plethora of talented, long defenders, but what makes them special on that end of the court is their cohesiveness. Not many teams are as crisp on their rotations as Toronto is and from top to bottom, all of their players are committed to defense.
The Brooklyn Nets, on the other hand, were a team largely counted out due to the vast amount of players who did not make the trip to Orlando. The Nets, who are without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan, Nic Claxton, Taurean Prince, and Wilson Chandler, have been a pleasant surprise so far. The Nets pulled a monster upset against the Milwaukee Bucks (who rested their starters in the second half) and battled Portland incredibly tight in a win-or-go-home game for the Blazers. The thing most apparent to me while watching Brooklyn was Caris LeVert’s level of play, as he has quickly become a star in the bubble. Remember, LeVert was getting legitimate All-Star buzz last year before getting hurt. Brooklyn might be thin and without their top talent, but from the early games in Disney, they are not a team to be overlooked.
Toronto Raptors
When looking at the Toronto Raptors roster, a few things jump out. The first is their net rating, which ranked 4th in the NBA this season despite having all their starters (aside from OG Anunoby) miss time this season. What Toronto has been able to do this year has been remarkable and they are not a team to be overlooked. Toronto’s starting five of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Marc Gasol has a 12.9 net rating for the year, which is one of the better marks in the league. Not only that, but the Raptors boast solid depth behind with Serge Ibaka, Norman Powell, Terence Davis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Chris Boucher. The Raptors bench has the fourth best plus/minus in the league as well, indicating this team is not solely reliant on their starting five. Toronto has such incredible versatility, as they can play big with Ibaka and Gasol (like they did last season in the NBA Finals), they can go small with only one big, or they can throw a variety of wings at you with Powell, Anunoby, and Siakam all on the court together.
The one thing to mention with Toronto’s offense is their reliance on the 3-PT ball. 36.8% of Toronto’s points come via the 3-PT shot, the 3rd highest mark in the NBA. What makes this important is Toronto’s ability to space the floor, even when they deploy two bigs, giving them an incredible advantage. To emphasize, both Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka are shooting 38.5% from 3-PT range and Siakam is a capable threat (35.9%–right around average) as well. While Toronto is an exceptional 3-PT shooting team, the Nets have actually been fairly stingy defending the 3-PT line overall, allowing opponents to shoot a meager 35.0% from deep, ranking 9th in the NBA. It is important to add that despite running out a vastly different lineup, the Nets’ 3-PT defense has not worsened at all.
One thing to certainly keep an eye on with Toronto is their transition offense, which has been elite this season. The Raptors were the third best team in transition this season garnering 1.15 PPP on those plays. Interestingly enough, the Nets ranked 4th, at 1.14 PPP. Toronto and Brooklyn are also among the best transition defenses in the NBA, making this a really interesting battle to watch. This should be an up-and-down series as both teams rank within the top-12 in pace and with transition offense playing a huge part (Toronto ranks #1 in transition point reliance), keep an eye on the turnover and defensive rebounding battle here. Jarrett Allen is coming off a very strong rebounding game against Jusuf Nurkíc and the Raptors, surprisingly, have been slightly below average on the defensive glass. Brooklyn might be at a severe talent disadvantage, but if they can handle Toronto’s transition game, then they have a strong chance.
When mentioning Toronto’s defense, we should not understate how dominant the Raptors have been at times on that end of the court. With a roster that is nearing full health and a variety of lineups that can be deployed, Toronto can be a nightmarish defensive opponent for teams. Similar to Milwaukee’s defense, the Raptors allow teams to shoot a ton of threes, something that makes their defense have some “boom/bust” potential. The Raptors have the highest opponent 3-PT rate in the league, with 44% of their opponents’ attempts coming from deep. However, they have also allowed the largest percentage of wide-open threes and their opponents have shot an extremely low percentage on those attempts (35.4%, the worst in the NBA). While that is certainly lucky, part of it is also due to schematic changes by Toronto to strategically leave open certain shooters. This is a strategy that could work well against the Brooklyn Nets, who have been consistently utilizing Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen in pick-and-roll during the seeding games. The Raptors have been the best defensive team on P&R defending the roll man and are top-10 at defending the ball-handler as well. Considering Brooklyn is low on shot creators outside of Caris LeVert and maybe Joe Harris, the Nets will need the secondary players to knock down shots consistently. So far, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Tyler Johnson, and Rodions Kurucs have hit threes at a high clip, but whether or not they can maintain it against the Raptors is a different story.
Brooklyn Nets
Admittedly, I had not watched much of the Brooklyn Nets during the seeding games prior to their epic showdown against the Trail Blazers Thursday night, but it was hard not to be impressed with their performance. Caris LeVert has been a breakout performer so far, exhibiting tremendous body control inside with his innate ability to absorb contact and finish inside. LeVert’s ability to attack the rim and finish in traffic will be necessary against a Toronto team that is allowing opponents to shoot 57.5% on defended shots within six feet of the rim. LeVert is shooting 60.6% at the rim this season and the Nets will need him to be special in this series.
As mentioned in the Raptors’ section, a lot of Brooklyn’s success will come down to role players making shots. Joe Harris is an elite sharpshooter, but Brooklyn will need Tyler Johnson, TLC, and others to continue their strong bubble play. The Raptors would much rather give up a three rather than a shot in the paint and considering how heavy Brooklyn’s P&R game has been, this plays right into Toronto’s hands. The Nets were a poor 3-PT shooting team in the regular season, ranking 26th in 3-PT%. The interesting thing is that a lot of Brooklyn’s high-volume, inefficient 3-PT shooters are actually not in Orlando with the team, names which include Spencer Dinwiddie, Wilson Chandler, and Taurean Prince. In my opinion, this has actually allowed Brooklyn’s offense to look a little smoother, as they were one of the most inefficient offenses in my opinion during the regular season. Brooklyn, especially under Kenny Atkinson, ranked 5th in 3-PT rate this year, yet 26th in percentage. That, to put it nicely, is a horrible use of personnel. Now, the Kyrie Irving injury derailed their offense (they were incredible with Kyrie healthy), but having better shooters available in the bubble won’t hurt the Nets’ offense. However, is it enough to overcome a top-3 defense in the NBA? Probably not, but considering how hard the Nets play, how good Caris LeVert has been, and their role players’ ability to knock down shots, they certainly will not roll over.
I think Brooklyn will be able to generate some decent offense here, especially since their high amount of 3-PT attempts gives them potential to compete, or win, any given night against a team that allows the most 3-PT attempts in the NBA. However, whether or not Brooklyn can truly scare the Raptors lies on the defensive end of the court. Simply put, teams that struggle defensively rarely play deep into the postseason. The notable exception was the 2017-18 Cleveland Cavaliers team, a team dragged to the Finals purely by LeBron James’ other-worldly greatness that year. The Nets actually ranked 10th in defensive rating for the season and with Jarrett Allen on the court, Brooklyn’s defensive rating was 106, which would’ve put the Nets 4th in the NBA for the season. However, Brooklyn’s projected starting lineup of Garrett Temple, Joe Harris, Caris LeVert, Rodions Kurucs, and Jarrett Allen has an astronomical defensive rating of 126.1 in limited minutes so far. The Nets do not have a defensive stopper on the roster but to be honest, that may not be as big of a problem against a Toronto team that is fairly balanced in their offensive attack. Effective schemes from Jacques Vaughn will be more important than having 1-2 elite defenders to lock down specific players.
As mentioned, Toronto’s offense thrives in transition, an area where Brooklyn has been strong defensively. However, one area I am concerned about is their 2-PT defense. Although the Raptors have three pointers account for a healthy percentage of their total points, scoring in the paint is still a point of emphasis for all teams. Brooklyn is allowing the highest percentage of wide-open 2-PT attempts this season, a concerning trend in general. The Raptors do not shoot many twos, but 46.0% of their total 2-PT attempts are within 10 feet. While Jarrett Allen is elite at protecting the rim, shots within 10 feet, and even closer within 6 feet, are high efficient shots. The Nets allow the 2nd lowest frequency of attempts from within 6 feet in the NBA, but opponents still knock down 60.8% of those attempts. This is, once again, another clash. Both teams excel in a certain area, but one team is bound to budge. If you want to know who wins this series, take a look at transition play, the rebounding battle, interior defense, and the 3-PT line. While some may say that nearly encompasses the entire game, those four key areas will be the ultimate determinants in who wins.
X-Factors
Toronto Raptors: F-OG Anunoby
OG Anunoby is a very important player for the Raptors, as he’s their starting small forward and an important wing defender. Considering Toronto starts both Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet, the Raptors are exposed against a team that has a bigger guard/wing who can score at a high level. That’s what makes OG Anunoby very important. While Pascal Siakam is capable of playing high-level defense as well, you don’t want him to expend a lot of energy on that end of the court. Anunoby will likely be Toronto’s primary defender on Caris LeVert and the advanced numbers indicate he’ll, at worst, hold his own in that matchup. Anunoby ranks in the 66th percentile defending the pick-and-roll ball-handler, allowing a meager 0.82 PPP. Toronto could opt to utilize VanVleet on LeVert as well (and FVV has been very good in those situations), but FVV has been even better defending spot-up shooters, which means he’s likely to guard Joe Harris. Toronto needs Anunoby’s size, length, and strength on LeVert, but they’ll also need his offense. Anunoby missed all of the postseason last year due to appendicitis, so there’s a lot on his plate here. He’ll be an important cog in Toronto’s defense.
Brooklyn Nets: G-Joe Harris
To be honest, Jarrett Allen could easily be the X-factor, but it’s a bit of a cop out to pick Brooklyn’s second-best player. However, considering the Nets have very little depth behind Allen and Toronto has a trio of talented bigs, it is essential that Allen stays on the court. Outside of Allen, perhaps no player is more important this series than Joe Harris, one of the best 3-PT shooters in the NBA. As mentioned, the Raptors give up a ton of threes, meaning Brooklyn has to capitalize. Now, Toronto won’t leave Harris open willingly, but he is going to have to knock down shots, and a lot of them. Harris ranked in the 86th percentile on spot ups this season and the 69th percentile in handoffs, illustrating his offensive value. The Raptors have been around league average defending spot-ups and if Harris is open, Brooklyn needs him to be hot. Harris shot a scorching 54% from 3-PT range in the seeding games and the Nets will need plenty of that shooting in Round 1.
Outlook
Even though Brooklyn is missing plenty of key players, I think this will be a fun series. Maybe I’m drinking a bit too much of the Brooklyn Kool-Aid after their gritty performance against the Blazers, but this was a team that really impressed me in that showing. Their effort is undeniable and with the way Caris LeVert is playing, I give Brooklyn a fighting shot any night. It should also be noted that Brooklyn was 5-3 in the seeding games; the Portland battle was not a fluke.
With all that being said, I highly doubt the Nets give Toronto a serious scare game-wise in this series. There are a certain tidbits that lead me to believe Brooklyn will win a game or two, but I don’t see this getting to a Game 7 or a Brooklyn upset. Toronto allows a ton of threes and Brooklyn takes a ton of threes: I’ll take a chance on the Nets getting hot for a game or two to win, but other than that, I just don’t see it. If Jarrett Allen gets in foul trouble, Brooklyn will be in serious trouble. I also don’t trust Tyler Johnson and TLC to continue their hot shooting stretches, especially as the basket gets metaphorically smaller in postseason time. The Nets play extremely hard and they’ll push Toronto effort-wise, but the talent disparity is too great here.
Prediction: Raptors Win Series 4-1
The Chirp 