It is a beautiful thing to have summertime baseball and although we are only just starting the season, some teams are already 17% of the way through their schedule. We have certainly had some surprises to the year, including the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, and San Diego Padres. For the most part, the favorites have held their ground, with the New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, and Los Angeles Dodgers all holding onto a playoff spot at the time of writing this.
As crazy as 2020 has been so far, it should not come as a surprise that this MLB season has had its fair share of uncertainty as well. COVID outbreaks within baseball, particularly among the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals, have seemingly jeopardized the season, although Rob Manfred proudly proclaimed on Saturday that he is not a quitter and that, “There is no reason to quit now,” (courtesy of Jeff Passan from ESPN). Despite Manfred’s confidence, the fragility of this MLB season makes it all the more unique. It feels like everyday we hold our breath awaiting the test results from different teams, namely the Philadelphia Phillies who played the Marlins during the team’s active outbreak. Luckily, it appears Philadelphia has yet to find a known COVID case among its players, while two of their staffers who initially tested positive are now believed to have received a “false positive”. While the league seems to be staying afloat (for now), it is certainly treading water, and any day it threatens to cancel. Everyone is hoping that is not the case, but knowing that baseball could be cancelled any day is certainly a cloud looming over the league’s head.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the league, some things have remained certain this year. The Mets have already found numerous ways to have heartbreaking meltdowns, the Minnesota Twins still mash at the plate, and Aaron Judge hits very big home runs. Now that we are just over a week in, here’s some current takeaways I have of the season:
What Has Happened to the Boston Red Sox?
Just two years ago, the Red Sox were the most dominant team in baseball and it was not particularly close. Yet, their current team barely resembles the powerhouse that graced Fenway Park back in the 2018 season. Mookie Betts and David Price are both Dodgers, Craig Kimbrel is now an ineffective closer with the Cubs, Chris Sale is injured, and key players have seen their production decline. It is normal for a team to take a small step back after winning a championship, especially when you were as dominant as the Red Sox were. However, this current team is barely recognizable.
While Boston’s financial situation ultimately led to their decision to depart with Mookie Betts (while attaching David Price’s contract alongside), it still seems surprising to see how rapid this team’s fall from grace has been. The Red Sox are currently 3-7 on the year and their pitching staff has gotten shelled nearly every night. As a matter of fact, Boston has allowed less than five runs in only two games this season. While injuries have certainly played a part in Boston’s pitching woes, with Chris Sale out for the season and Eduardo Rodriguez recovering from a heart issue as a side effect of COVID-19 (sending our best to him), a major reason the Sox have struggled on the mound is because of ineffective roster management. Boston invested a combined $48 million per year into Nathan Eovaldi and David Price, two players who were/are drastically overpaid. Sure, it is hard to fault Boston for clinging onto Eovaldi after his dominant 2018 performance, but neither him nor Price lived up their lofty salaries. This questionable allocation of funds served as a direct cause for Boston’s decision to trade Mookie Betts (and attach Price’s contract) simply to clear the necessary payroll space to avoid a hefty luxury tax penalty. Now, with Boston’s offense taking a massive hit due to a severe downgrade in lineup talent, combined with a thin/injured pitching rotation and a bullpen the front office has neglected to properly reinforce for years, the Red Sox are finally starting to regress.
Even though Boston’s horrific early season start is not pleasant for any Red Sox fan, there is hope for the future. First, Rafael Devers is a legitimate star at third base and their middle-of-the-order group of Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez is still among the best in baseball. As Alex Verdugo continues to develop, Boston could realistically field an elite lineup within the next year or two. Boston’s biggest weakness is still the pitching staff, but their early season performance is more misleading than we believe. Ryan Weber, for example, had registered a FIP (a better metric for determing a pitcher’s performance–it is essentially standardized ERA, where it removes defense, luck, and other factors that distort ERA and are not reflective of a pitcher’s true performance) of 4.20 last season, a league average number. Martin Perez has an ERA of 5.06 on the season, but his FIP is at an above average 3.70, indicating he is due for some positive regression over the coming weeks. Frankly, Weber and Perez are not as bad as their numbers indicate, while Zack Godley was one of the better young pitchers in baseball just two years ago. The Red Sox certainly need to upgrade their staff regardless; their starters rank last in FIP and their bullpen ranks 18th, but when Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez are healthy, their starting staff is not as much of a weakness as we perceive.
Lastly, Boston shedding salary had set them up to be prime free agent players going forwards before COVID-19 hit. The pandemic is surely going to drastically drive down team revenues which should fundamentally alter free agency, but Boston has the luxury tax breathing room to play with. The same financial strategy that Boston undertook this year was one the Dodgers and Yankees have used in years past, moves that have netted the clubs Mookie Betts (ironically), Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, and others. If free agency goes somewhat according to normal, than Boston could be in the hunt for players like George Springer, Trevor Bauer, James Paxton, Ken Giles, Marcell Ozuna, and others. It is also conceivable to imagine the next time a team has to crunch some salary, Boston will be in prime position to pounce on trading for a star with depressed value, whether it be Nolan Arenado from the Rockies or Noah Syndergaard from the Mets.
The Chicago Cubs Are Doing It… With Pitching?
When the Chicago Cubs surprisingly burst onto the scene in the 2015 season, the thing that was evident was the Cubs lacked the necessary pitching to be a World Series contender. While Chicago crashed the postseason party a year early (remember, they won the World Series the following year), the Cubs were utterly dominated by the New York Mets in the NLCS, getting swept and discarded fairly easily. At the time, the pundits talked about how the Cubs and Mets were the future of the National League and that a trade felt inevitable between both clubs. Remember, the Mets had an excess of pitching with Matt Harvey, Jacob DeGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler (top prospect), and Steven Matz, while the Cubs had an excess of hitters with Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, and others who were budding prospects at the time. Yet, the two clubs never met again in the postseason and they never made a trade. While the Cubs did eventually bolster their pitching by trading for Jose Quintana and Aroldis Chapman in subsequent years, all while Kyle Hendricks quietly developed into a bonafide top-of-the-rotation guy, that narrative never came to fruition, something that seemed odd at the time.
While the Cubs broke the curse in 2016 they have largely been unable to replicate similar success since. Chicago mortgaged much of the farm to go all in during the 2016 season (rightfully so) and to remain competitive the following year, trading away future superstars Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez in the process. Having a loaded farm system like the Cubs had was useful for this reason; their position players were already blocked, so cashing in the prospects for league-ready assets to plug any remaining holes was the smart move. However, the Eloy Jimenez/Jose Quintana trade has not been a raging success for the Cubs, and the team had underachieved to such a degree the past two seasons that Joe Maddon and the Cubs parted ways, allowing former Cub and World Series Champion David Ross to take over.
Pardon my long-winded story about the Cubs, but this team has been a revelation this season, coming out of the gates on fire with an 8-2 record despite Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo’s slow starts and a Jose Quintana injury. For a team that has underachieved the past two seasons, it is a refreshing sight for North Side fans to finally see a team overachieve. While Chicago’s offense has been strong despite Bryant and Rizzo’s woes (although both are tattooing the ball, indicating they are due for a hot streak any day), the Cubs success can be traced back to their starting pitching, an area that was deemed a major weakness at the start of Chicago’s rise. Not only that, but the backend of Chicago’s rotation has been a huge catalyst in their success, as Tyler Chatwood and Alec Mills have combined for 25.2 IP while allowing just three runs. When you have that type of production to pair with Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and Yu Darvish at the top, it is easy to see why the Cubs pitching staff has been so dominant. The Cubs starters rank 2nd in FIP and have allowed the 3rd lowest hard contact rate in baseball, both absolutely elite numbers. While the Cubs bullpen has been a major liability (they rank last in FIP and lack proven arms), it has yet to burn them because their starting rotation has been effective enough to give the team comfortable leads in the late innings. I am not sure if Chicago’s hot start is sustainable, and their bullpen woes will certainly flare up in the postseason (if they make it), but their pitching staff shows no signs of regression and “Bryzzo” has yet to get going. This team has the talent to match any team in the league… don’t sleep on the Cubs to make a deep postseason run, except this time, it may be because of their pitching.
Are the Surging NL West Teams Pretenders or Contenders?
There is nothing like playing a classic ESPN-style game of “pretenders or contenders”, and this time, we are presenting a NL West edition. We know the Los Angeles Dodgers are serious contenders, but at the time of writing this, they currently are in the thick of the race for first place with the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres. Lurking right behind those three clubs are the San Francisco Giants, a team many expected to be among the worst in baseball, especially after Buster Posey opted out. To be fully transparent, I could not tell you much about half of San Francisco’s starters, yet this team is thriving, starting out the year playing just below .500 baseball despite having four games against the Dodgers under their belt already.
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have come out of the gates sizzling, despite their offense getting off to a very shaky start in their opening series against the Texas Rangers. Coors Field is always a kind remedy to an ineffective offense, but the Rockies are out to a 7-2 start despite Nolan Arenado rocking a lowly OPS of .631. Trevor Story has gotten off to an electric start and is an early frontrunner for NL MVP, Charlie Blackmon has loved the Coors Field medicine, hitting .471 at home, and the team has gotten production from the other guys like Daniel Murphy, Matt Kemp, David Dahl, and Chris Owings.
While Colorado is known for their offense and has an impressive array of talent, this is another team whose pitching staff has really energized this team. The Rockies’ starters rank 4th in FIP despite pitching at Coors Field. I am not sure how sustainable Colorado’s pitching performance is, however, which is why it is essential for the Rockies to find their offensive groove away from home (they average 4.4 runs on the road and 7.3 at home). To illustrate why Colorado’s pitching is likely due for some regression, here is a look at each of their starter’s FIP comparisons along with their hard contact rates:
| 2019 FIP | 2020 FIP | 2019 Hard Contact Rate | 2020 Hard Contact Rate | |
| German Marquez | 4.06 | 2.79 | 37.9% | 35.7% |
| Jon Gray | 4.06 | 3.24 | 39.9% | 39.4% |
| Antonio Senzatela | 5.44 | 2.50 | 38.4% | 44.1% |
| Kyle Freeland | 5.99 | 3.63 | 40.5% | 50.0% |
Two pitchers whose historical numbers indicate regression is in store are Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland, two guys who have been dominant so far this season. Senzatela is a high-upside pitcher so it is certainly reasonable to believe he could improve, but this is a massive jump forwards. His hard contact rate illustrates he has perhaps gotten a little lucky in the BABIP department as well. Kyle Freeland was a pitcher who got rocked more often than not a year ago and while the basic numbers look good, he seems due for a bad outing. Freeland has allowed right-handed batters to make hard contact 56.5% of the time (that is insanely high), yet he has allowed only two runs all season. It is simply unfathomable to imagine that Freeland can maintain his success while subsequently allowing that much hard contact. Colorado’s bullpen is also questionable, particularly with Wade Davis as the closer. The Rockies are off to a scorching hot start, but they are due for pitching regression. However, in a 60-game season, perhaps their early season surge is enough to get them into the postseason mix.
San Diego Padres
Ever since A.J. Preller took over as the general manager of the San Diego Padres, the club has went from being a conservative team that refused to deeply wade into the free agency/blockbuster trade waters to one that has been among the most aggressive in baseball. Preller’s first swing for San Diego to become instant contenders was a failure, as the trades for Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Craig Kimbrel never made San Diego a serious contender. Additionally, Preller’s early free agency signing of James Shields never panned out. However, despite Preller’s early failings to quickly infuse cash and trade away prospects never led to a good team, things have really turned around this year, with San Diego coming out of the gates hot with a 7-4 record and currently in position of a playoff spot. Part of it is San Diego’s youth, with Fernando Tatis Jr. (who was ironically acquired when the Padres traded James Shields), Trent Grisham (acquired from Milwaukee), and Chris Paddack (acquired for Fernando Rodney) all playing major roles. In addition, the Padres have superstar Manny Machado manning the hot corner and possess one of the most underrated players in baseball, Tommy Pham, hitting in the middle of the order. It is no secret why San Diego is third in wOBA among teams that have played 5+ games.
Now, the question remains whether or not San Diego’s hot start is sustainable. A few things lead me to believe that it quite possibly could be, although I have my concerns. First, San Diego has the top-end talent necessary to be a postseason threat. Fernando Tatis Jr., Trent Grisham, Manny Machado, Tommy Pham, and Wil Myers form one of the better 1-5 groups in Major League Baseball and if Myers can continue his torrid start, he could be a game changer for them. The Padres have also been doing this despite Eric Hosmer only playing in three games so far; Hosmer is not the difference-maker he once was, but he is another capable hitter who rarely strikes out, a welcome sight for a team that has two of the more strikeout-prone batters in Tatis Jr. and Myers. The Padres need to find consistent offensive production outside of those six (when Hosmer is healthy) hitters, so the hope is that Jurickson Profar and Francisco Mejia can step up (Mejia’s advanced statistics indicate he is due for a mini-breakout soon).
Second, the Padres have the requisite 1-2 combo at the top of their rotation to win. Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet are two of the better pitchers in baseball who rarely get attention, primarily Lamet. San Diego’s pitching staff has actually gotten fairly unlucky this year, as their FIP (4.03) is much lower than their team ERA (4.64). However, outside of Lamet and Paddack, there are few proven, quality starters. Garrett Richards has been solid throughout his career, but he has battled a multitude of injuries. Zach Davies started out his career strong, but he has regressed each of the past four seasons and is now a slightly below average pitcher (he’s a fine back-end guy). Joey Lucchesi has been a solid pitcher his entire career, but he has struggled against RH batting as well. A consistent trait we have seen from past World Series Champions (and for that matter, teams that make deep postseason runs) is that these teams have dominant pitching staffs. While all also had great offenses, pitching has become so incredibly important in modern-day baseball. Unless your offense is so dominant (San Diego’s is above average, but if history is any indication, they will probably regress), you likely won’t be a World Series threat.
Now, it is important to put San Diego’s goals in perspective. While all teams aspire to be World Series Champions, there is no way that was a realistic preseason thought for the Padres. Just making it to the postseason would be a massive success and based on what I have seen, they certainly have the talent to do so. Although Richards, Davies, and Lucchesi all lack top-tier talent, all three are capable pitchers who hover around league average in terms of FIP. The Padres have good back-end bullpen talent in Emilio Pagan and Kirby Yates, although both have struggled this season. Plus, their offense is talented. As a final note, it is important to remember that the Padres also have the 2nd best farm system in baseball according to MLB.com and it features prized lefty MacKenzie Gore, infielder C.J. Abrams, right-handed pitcher Luis Patino, catcher Luis Campusano, and outfielder Taylor Trammell. This team is only scratching the surface for how good they can be in the following years, making this not a year to be measured by how far the Padres go, but whether or not they can crack the postseason. From what I have seen, I certainly believe this team is capable.
San Francisco Giants
Nobody was expecting the San Francisco Giants to be competitive this year, yet the team has an admirable 5-6 record and has exceeded expectations early on. Looking up and down San Francisco’s lineup, there are not many players to get excited about, although Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Donovan Solano, and Alex Dickerson have all gotten off to torrid starts behind the dish. Considering Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria are just getting their legs underneath themselves, I do not think it is inconceivable to imagine that San Francisco’s offense remains solid on the year. They are certainly due for regression if historical numbers are any indication, but the Giants do rank 13th in wOBA and could field around a league average offense which would be a major surprise. The biggest issue for the Giants is their pitching staff, as outside of Johnny Cueto, they lack a consistent starter you trust to go for a quality start. The Giants’ pitching staff ranks 25th in FIP and considering their offense will likely regress, it seems like it is only a matter of time before the Giants slide further and further away from the playoff picture.
Can Anybody Besides the Dodgers or Yankees Win the World Series?
This is the million dollar question this season, as looking at the rosters of both the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, it does not seem like many teams can compete with both of the powerhouses. The Yankees’ starting pitching has been their weakness for the past several seasons, but that area is shored up with the acquisition of Gerrit Cole. James Paxton has not been dominant since donning the pinstripes and his velocity has dipped considerably this season, but if he can regain some of his form, he is a high-end #2 pitcher. With Masahiro Tanaka in tow, along with some combination of Jordan Montgomery, J.A. Happ, and Jonathan Losaiga, this team has enough quality pitching to survive (they’ll be even scarier next season with a healthy Luis Severino). The Yankees offense and bullpen are among the best units in baseball in those respective groups, making them nearly impossible to beat. In the National League, I’m not sure any team in baseball has a better lineup on paper than the Los Angeles Dodgers. The team is absolutely stacked and with Corey Seager finally rediscovering some of his old form, it could cause an already elite lineup to become borderline unstoppable. The Dodgers have question marks with their pitching staff; remember, they have lost Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, and Hyun-Jin Ryu in free agency the past few seasons, but they still have a dominant 1-2 punch with Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, plus solid depth in Ross Stripling, Dustin May, and Julio Urias. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been fantastic to begin the year, but issues have popped up among that unit for the past few seasons. Still, without a doubt these two teams are the clear favorites to win it all come October.
Considering how loaded these teams are, it seems difficult to imagine a scenario where neither the Yankees nor Dodgers win the World Series. Yet, there is a reason why they play the games and there is never a sure thing in sports, especially baseball. In the American League, the Minnesota Twins are without a doubt a major offensive force. Their lineup is arguably as strong as the New York Yankees, although they lack the superstar talent of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton that the Yankees possess. Max Kepler, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver are all above average bats, and if the Twins can get some production from Miguel Sano and Marwin Gonzalez, this offense is incredibly dangerous. Like New York, Minnesota has struggled with pitching in years past, but their free agent additions of Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill have elevated their rotation and form a nice trio with Jose Berrios. Jake Odorizzi is also expected to return to action soon. The Twins bullpen is solid as well, featuring talented arms like Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May in the back-end. I’m not sure the Twins have the star power to actually topple the Yankees, but they are a dangerous team that could scare them.
Another team to mention is the Houston Astros. Putting the horrific cheating scandal to the side, a lot of people are sleeping on Houston’s talent. George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Correa are one of the best 1-5 groups in all of baseball and they have plenty of solid role players around them like Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel, and Josh Reddick. The Astros’ championship hopes certainly took a hit when Justin Verlander suffered a serious injury, but I still would not count them out. They have the offensive talent to erupt any given night and their pitching has performed well for the most part this season. Lastly, I think the Oakland A’s are a serious darkhorse in the AL. Oakland’s bats have started out ice cold to begin the year, but perhaps their 11-run explosion Monday night could get them going. The trio of Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, and Matt Chapman might be the most underrated in baseball, but they have plenty of other strong hitters as well like Ramon Laureano, Khris Davis, and Mark Canha,. If Khris Davis can rediscover his 2018 form, he could be a major X-factor for the team. Oakland’s bats will eventually heat up, but in the meantime, their pitching has been very, very strong. The A’s currently have the best FIP in the majors and their ERA is fairly close, illustrating that Oakland’s performance has matched their production so far. Oakland is a scary team because of their top-to-bottom power, deep bullpen, and underrated defense. If the bats get hot, this will be a very, very scary team. (Plus, their kelly green uniforms are the best in baseball and it is not even close: see below)
In the National League, perhaps the most obvious contender to the Los Angeles Dodgers are the Atlanta Braves, although Mike Soroka’s heartbreaking torn Achilles might derail their World Series aspirations. I’m not sure Atlanta has enough pitching to compete; the Braves will be asking a lot out of Max Fried and Sean Newcomb this season. Atlanta’s bullpen is very good and should only improve when Will Smith returns from the COVID-19 reserve list, but their starting staff is a major weakness. Atlanta will be very reliant on their offense putting up big numbers, something they have done frequently this season. The Braves lineup is loaded, but asking their offense to consistently spot their pitching staff 5-6+ runs is a nearly impossible ask.
We already mentioned the Chicago Cubs as a serious threat (they are probably, in my opinion, Los Angeles’ biggest threat), but what about the Cincinnati Reds? Cincinnati was a trendy preseason pick to make some noise, but this team has quietly performed very well to begin the season. Cincinnati’s pitching staff, a surprising strength from a year ago, has been very, very good, registering the 4th lowest FIP. The Reds have a phenomenal rotation, led by Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, and Luis Castillo. Those three alone, coupled with talented bullpen arms like Raisel Iglesias (who has struggled), Amir Garrett, and Pedro Strop makes Cincinnati a dangerous team. Not only do the Reds have strong pitching, but their offense is very underrated. Cincinnati’s offense uncharacteristically struggled last season, but they made it a point of emphasis to improve this year, adding Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos via free agency. Moustakas has battled early season injuries, but Castellanos has homered six times in seven games and has once again proven himself to be a criminally underrated batter. For a lineup that also features Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez (who is in a massive slump), and Nick Senzel, this offense could quietly perform well. The Reds pitching is elite and once their offense catches up, watch out. They are a real darkhorse threat to make some noise.
In conclusion, I am not sure many teams pose a serious threat to the Yankees and/or Dodgers. The talent gap in baseball has widened substantially the past few seasons as the luxury tax penalties increased. Basically, team-building has amounted to manipulating rosters to avoid hefty luxury tax penalties, going all-in for a specified amount of years, and when the severe penalties are imminent, you shed salary. I fear in the future this cycle of teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. will continue, where one will face harsh luxury tax penalties, trade away a top player to a team looking to make a splash, reset their tax penalties, and bounce back in a year or two with a major FA signing or trade for a star on a team looking to shed salary. If that is the case, then the large-market teams may reign supreme for a while with a few clubs having strong stretches, but never prolonged ability to truly compete and topple a team. This will certainly be a case study to follow going forwards, starting with this season, but right now, any team that wants to beat the Yankees or Dodgers will have to overcome one major obstacle: talent.
The Chirp 