The Dallas Cowboys were arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL last season and to the surprise of nobody, changes were implemented. Jason Garrett, a head coach who became synonymous with clapping, finally parted ways with Jerry Jones and the Cowboys. Garrett’s tenure in Dallas was fairly successful, going 85-67 with three NFC East titles and a 3-4 postseason record, one that could’ve been much more impressive if not for two tough luck losses to the Green Bay Packers. However, when you coach the Dallas Cowboys, “fairly successful” does not cut it; championships are the grading scale everywhere, but with the Cowboys, championships are highlighted to a greater extent. Not many teams in the NFL have a history as rich as the Cowboys, yet the team has made little noise since the turn of the century. There is no doubt that when looking at last year’s team, they should have far exceeded their 8-8 record. Dallas had the 5th best scoring margin in the NFL, ranked 1st in yards per play, had arguably the best offensive line in football, and the 7th easiest schedule in the NFL. As mentioned in our previous articles regarding teams who were lucky and unlucky last season (link), the Cowboys were one of the teams we classified as “unlucky” last season. Dallas was above average in the percentage of the game they led for, above average in the percentage of their losses that were by one possession, and below average in one-possession winning percentage and one-possession win reliance. The one thing we continue to harp on is how volatile one-possession winning percentage is and the greater reliance a team has on one-possession victories, the more likely it is that the team was likely not as good as their record indicated. The Cowboys ranked favorably in those metrics, indicating that if everything remained constant, the Cowboys would expect to finish well above their 8-8 record, possibly as high as 11-5.
Now, here’s the obvious catch: everything will not remain constant. Dallas’ schedule will change, players may get injured, but the major alterations revolve around a new coaching staff and slightly different roster for America’s Team. Mike McCarthy is taking over for Jason Garrett and if history is any indication, McCarthy’s steady hand and fairly consistent track record of success should be a refreshing change over Garrett, who was rather inexperienced when taking over as the head coach and consistently struggled with game management scenarios. While Rod Marinelli coordinated some strong defenses during his tenure with the Cowboys, his units consistently ranked at the bottom of the NFL in turnovers created, something that could change for the better with new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. Nolan was the Saints LB coach the past few seasons and is the former head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, giving McCarthy a reliable coordinator. It should also be noted that considering Dallas’ dynamic linebacking duo of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch (who missed seven games last season), Nolan is in a prime position for himself career-wise.
Not only has Dallas’ coaching staff changed in some aspects, but there has been a variety of changes with personnel as well. The Cowboys lost three of their top players this summer: Byron Jones signed a mega deal with the Miami Dolphins, Robert Quinn is a Chicago Bear, and Travis Frederick opted for retirement. Other departures occurred as well, with Randall Cobb, Jeff Heath, Maleik Collins, and Jason Witten all leaving. However, the Cowboys did bring in replacements. Dallas fortified their defensive line with Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, and Aldon Smith, added some secondary help with Daryl Worley and former Packer Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, brought in top backup quarterback Andy Dalton, and had one of the strongest draft classes, including uber-talented receiver CeeDee Lamb, cornerback Trevon Diggs, and likely Travis Frederick replacement Tyler Biadasz, who was in my opinion, one of the biggest steals of the entire draft. While Dallas probably suffered a net loss of talent simply because Jones, Quinn, and Frederick were easily top-10 players on the team, the Cowboys added key depth in a lot of areas. While this team will not look drastically different: after all, Kellen Moore will still be calling plays, and Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, etc. remain on the team, things will change. The question now becomes: can Mike McCarthy elevate the Dallas Cowboys from an unlucky team who underachieved, to a club that fulfills their potential to be a serious Super Bowl contender?
Mike McCarthy’s Track Record: Final Few Years in Green Bay
If I were to describe Mike McCarthy in one word, it would be respected. McCarthy appears to be one of the most respected coaches in the NFL and even though he fizzled out at the end of his tenure with the Green Bay Packers, his run of success with the club was extremely impressive. Under McCarthy’s watch, the Packers made the postseason every year from 2009-2016, winning the division title five times in that span to go along with three conference championship appearances, one of which culminated in a Super Bowl title. Green Bay struggled in 2017, but it should be noted that Aaron Rodgers played in just seven games that season due to a broken collarbone (Green Bay was 4-1 in games Rodgers started before the collarbone injury as well). The following season, Green Bay once again disappointed, starting out the year 4-7-1 before McCarthy was let go. It seemed like a variety of factors led to McCarthy’s dismissal: his relationship with Rodgers had deteriorated, the offense was underachieving, and for a team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, expectations were greater than eight straight seasons without a Super Bowl appearance. All seem relatively fair, albeit a bit excessive, but at the end of the day, a split might be best for both parties. Changes can be needed in a locker room even during a successful tenure: look at the Philadelphia Eagles and Andy Reid, or the Chicago Cubs and Joe Maddon in baseball. While the Cubs/Maddon move is obviously unable to be judged, the Reid/Eagles parting seemed to work well for both parties, as each have won a Super Bowl in the past three years.
While McCarthy’s resume can match nearly any active head coach’s in the league, we are really worried about his tendencies with the Packers, how they evolved, and what to expect in Dallas. McCarthy is known to be one of the more analytically accepting coaches in the NFL, a stark 180 from his predecessor Jason Garrett. Embracing data is something many “football guys” have resisted, but for coaches who are more willing to make data-driven decisions, it could become a huge advantage. One thing that is illustrative of McCarthy’s style is his emphasis on throwing the football, which is incredibly more effective than running the ball. To emphasize this with a simple example, the Chicago Bears had the lowest expected yards per pass play in the NFL last season at 5.71. The leading rushing offense, the Baltimore Ravens, averaged 5.6 yards per carry. Even the worst passing offense in football was expected to gain more yards per play than the best rushing offense in football was expected to gain per run. Now, there are more risks in throwing the football, including sacks and interceptions, but every single team averages more yards per play throwing than rushing. For further clarification, this does not mean teams should abandon the run. In fact, teams that run the ball more, on average, win more games. However, outside of Baltimore, San Francisco, and Tennessee, a lot of teams opt for running the ball as a byproduct of leading in a game.
Bringing up passing offense is incredibly important, as at the end of McCarthy’s tenure, the Packers were one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL. While Green Bay’s passing tendencies may have been a byproduct of them trailing in a lot of games during McCarthy’s two seasons, the statistics indicate a different story. Here’s a graph illustrating Green Bay’s ranking in passing play percentage over the past decade (remember: 2019 Matt LaFleur was the head coach)
As McCarthy’s tenure in Green Bay elongated, the Packers threw the ball more and more. Over his final 2.5 seasons as head coach, Green Bay ranked 2nd, 7th, and 1st in passing play percentage despite not having Aaron Rodgers fully healthy in two of those seasons. Over the entire McCarthy tenure in the 2010s, Green Bay, on average, ranked 12th in passing play percentage. If McCarthy’s track record is any indication for what we should expect in Dallas this season, a high volume of pass attempts seems on the docket. Considering Dallas’ passing offense ranked 5th by Football Outsiders and 4th in our expected yards per pass play calculation (7.64 yards per pass), this, in theory, seems like a good partnership. The Cowboys also added CeeDee Lamb to their receiving room this off-season, giving them possibly the best 11 personnel lineup in the NFL (Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, Blake Jarwin).
Speaking of personnel groupings, this is a specific area where things could change for the Dallas Cowboys. According to Sharp Football Stats, here’s a look at Dallas’ personnel frequencies since 2016: (11 personnel is 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs; 12 personnel is 1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs; 21 personnel is 2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs)
| 11 Personnel | 12 Personnel | 21 Personnel | |
| 2016 | 59% | 23% | 8% |
| 2017 | 56% | 18% | 6% |
| 2018 | 66% | 15% | 7% |
| 2019 | 67% | 18% | 9% |
The Cowboys’ frequency of plays in 11 personnel drastically increased these past two seasons. The Cowboys ranked #1 in yards per play last season (6.7) and had the highest success rate of any team in the NFL last year in 11 personnel (according to Sharp Football Stats). The Cowboys also averaged 5.5 YPC in 11 personnel, which ranked 4th in the NFL and behind only the Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants(!), and San Francisco 49ers. Dallas’ offense was electric in 11 personnel last season and considering that unit should only be stronger with CeeDee Lamb over Randall Cobb, one would hope McCarthy would utilize 11 personnel in Dallas as well.
The best way to figure out McCarthy’s style is to look at his history. Take a look at Green Bay’s personnel frequencies from 2016-2018 when McCarthy was the head coach:
| 11 Personnel | 12 Personnel | 21 Personnel | |
| 2016 | 50% | 8% | 6% |
| 2017 | 56% | 14% | 8% |
| 2018 | 75% | 18% | 1% |
It should be noted that in 2016, Green Bay ran empty sets with 1 TE and 4 WRs 17% of the time, easily the highest in the NFL. In 2018 under McCarthy, Green Bay ranked tied for 11th in success rate from 11 personnel, but averaged 5.5 YPC which ranked 5th among all teams (Sharp Football Stats). Looking back to 2016, McCarthy’s final season where Rodgers was fully healthy, Green Bay ranked 9th in pass play success from 11 personnel.
When turning our eye to 2020, a few projections stand out. First, it appears Dallas will maintain their stronger usage of 11 personnel; Kellen Moore will still be calling plays and considering how effective the Cowboys were in that package last season, and how they improved that personnel as well, I’d expect Dallas to hover around 65-70% of their plays coming from 11 personnel. Dallas’ 12 personnel usage has declined over the past several seasons and in Green Bay, Mike McCarthy relied more on that grouping over his final few seasons. I expect Dallas to hover around 15% from 12 personnel, which would be well below the league average of 20% from a year ago. The Cowboys were significantly less effective running the football in 12 personnel (4.6 YPC compared to 5.5 YPC in 11 personnel), but extremely more effective throwing the ball.
Outside of personnel projections, one thing I feel extremely confident in is that Dallas’ rushing offense should remain elite, even with the retirement of Travis Frederick. Green Bay ranked 2nd in yards per carry in 2018, 4th in 2017, and 6th in 2016, all elite marks in McCarthy’s final three seasons. Dallas, by contrast, ranked 16th in 2018 (when Zeke missed games), 2nd in 2017, and 3rd in 2016 (they ranked 5th last year). The Cowboys may be slightly more pass-heavy than usual, but the offense still has all the requisite personnel to be one of the best in the NFL again next season. If Mike McCarthy’s track record is any indication of what to expect in Dallas next season, then we should be anticipating a high-octane offense that fills up the box score, and scoreboard, every week next season.
Can Dallas Improve in One-Possession Games?
The Dallas Cowboys were 1-6 last year in games decided by one possession, a winning percentage that ranked 31st in the NFL (ahead of only Cincinnati, who went 0-8). However, in games decided by more than one possession, the Cowboys were a stellar 7-2, illustrating that this is a team who rarely got blown out. There is no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys were the unluckiest team in the NFL last season and if they had simply won 50% of their one-possession games a year ago, our model predicted them to finish 2nd in the NFC and 5th in the entire NFL.
While a variety of factors ultimately lead to the end result of a one-possession game (or any game, for that matter), it’s interesting to explore how Dallas could improve in that metric. Mike McCarthy is a better coach than Jason Garrett, which should give the Cowboys an advantage on the sideline, particularly with game management, every week. However, another area of improvement should be in the kicking game. Last season, Brett Maher connected on 66.7% of his field goal attempts in the first 13 games of the season, the worst mark in the NFL. Not only that, but in Dallas’ six games where they lost by one possession, Maher missed a field goal in 4/5 losses he was on the roster for. Dallas saw a massive upgrade in the kicking game this off-season, adding Greg Zuerlein. Zuerlein only made 72.7% of his field goal attempts last season, the 2nd worst mark of his career, but Zuerlein has a career accuracy mark of 82.0%, which is a fairly strong mark. Diving deeper into Zuerlein’s season last year, he also uncharacteristically struggled in between 40-49 yards, connecting on just 45.45% of those attempts. However, it should be noted that for his career, Zuerlein is much better kicking indoors, than outdoors, an important note considering the Cowboys play in a retractable roof stadium. Zuerlein’s career accuracy in a dome is 85.3% and 87.0% in a retro roof stadium, two marks that are fairly elite. If Zuerlein’s history is any indication, than the Cowboys’ kicking game should take a sizeable leap forwards next season.
Besides the kicking game, Dallas’ “data resume” showed they were a better team than their 8-8 record indicated. A lot of improvement will just be if Dallas performs around league average in one-possession games, which should not be too difficult if they maintain their offensive potency from a year ago. Ideally, the Cowboys want to get a Dak Prescott deal done before August rolls around to limit distractions, but I’m not terribly concerned about Dallas performing worse than .500 this season. Frankly, I do not see any logical scenario where that occurs. The Cowboys have the necessary talent to compete, an explosive offense that arguably took a step forwards with the addition of CeeDee Lamb, an improvement at head coach and kicker, and a defense that took a slight step back in terms of talent. If the Cowboys had finished 11-5 last season, we would be discussing this team in a vastly different tone than we currently are.
Conclusion
To sum it up, the change on the sidelines may not drastically alter what Dallas hopes to do (they may opt for a 3-4 defense instead, but that is up in the air), but this team is in line for a bounce-back season. Dallas was the unluckiest team in the NFL last season and while their team might have taken a slight step back in terms of total talent, they’re still loaded with star power on both sides of the ball. Mike McCarthy could make Dallas even more pass-heavy than they’ve been in the past, but considering the effectiveness Dak Prescott and company had last season, that could make an already elite offense even more potent, especially with CeeDee Lamb operating out of the slot. McCarthy’s stock may have soured after a few disappointing years at the end of his Green Bay tenure, but during his final two seasons, Aaron Rodgers was never fully healthy. It is truly unfair to accurately judge McCarthy’s supposed “decline”, but the coach hasn’t magically lost his touch or football acumen. With the potential personnel changes mentioned above, the Cowboys could field a more efficient team from the year before. If that is the case, then the rest of the NFL should watch out: the Cowboys are a real threat to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
The Chirp 