History was set yesterday with the first ever virtual draft kicking off and to be honest, it went pretty well. Getting just a taste of a live sporting event was such a treat and while this year’s first round lacked the fire most opening rounds usually bring, it still brought a few surprises, a few reaches, and a few homerun picks. We’ll deliver some rapid-fire takes today and thoughts on what we can see on Day 2:
Biggest Winners
Minnesota Vikings
Selections: WR-Justin Jefferson, CB-Jeff Gladney
The Minnesota Vikings are a very well-run franchise and truthfully, they are not given enough credit for it. While I’ve been critical of Minnesota’s off-season, one that saw a mass exodus of players without any key additions coming in, they really aced Round 1. Justin Jefferson was not only great value at the 22nd pick (I personally had him ranked 25th), but he fulfilled a major need at wide receiver. Although Minnesota ranked 4th in rushing play percentage last season, the most efficient form of offense is throwing the football, and the Vikings sorely lacked weapons on the perimeter after trading Stefon Diggs. Essentially, Minnesota replaced Diggs with Jefferson here. Diggs has four years, $45.1 million remaining on his contract and comes with an annual cap hit between $11.5-12M. Andre Dillard, the 22nd overall pick last season, is currently under a 4 year, $12.37M contract with an annual cap hit between $2.2-4M. If Jefferson’s rookie contract is in a similar ballpark to Dillard’s, then not only will Minnesota save roughly $7-10M in cap space annually over the next four years, but will also have adequately filled a need at a position the Vikings’ offense does not prioritize. Diggs’ production took a massive drop last season, seeing 55 less targets and 39 less receptions. Overall, Diggs saw a target rate of just 21.1% last season compared to a target rate of 24.6% the prior season. Diggs’ involvement in Minnesota’s offense really diminished last season and considering the financial savings, value, and schematic fit, the Vikings crushed the Jefferson pick and subsequently, the Stefon Diggs trade (which also saw them land 5th and 6th round picks in the 2020 Draft and a 4th round pick in the 2021 Draft).
While I was a fan of the Justin Jefferson pick, the major reason why Minnesota is the biggest winner of Round 1 was the selection of Jeff Gladney. Simply put, Gladney is a stud cornerback; according to Pro Football Focus, Gladney has 49 forced incompletions since 2016 (2nd most in the draft class), had the lowest completion percentage allowed among cornerbacks who played 1,000 coverage snaps from 2016-19, and consistently displayed tremendous skill despite going against Big 12 receivers, which included CeeDee Lamb, Denzel Mims, Collin Johnson, Hakeem Butler, Marquise Brown, and others. Gladney is not only elite in coverage, but he ran a great 4.48 forty-yard dash at the NFL Combine and his tape illustrates solid run defense attributes as well, specifically with his attitude and willingness to tackle. The Vikings secondary has taken a step backwards over the past few seasons and saw a mass exodus of players this spring, watching Xavier Rhodes, Mackensie Alexander, and Trae Waynes all leave. Remaking their backend with Mike Hughes and Gladney, paired with arguably the best safety tandem in football with Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, has allowed the Vikings’ secondary to potentially become a strength again. While Gladney the player might be my favorite sleeper in the NFL Draft (I had him ranked 16th), the Vikings actually acquired more picks to move down for Gladney. Minnesota added in the 117th and 176th overall picks to move down two spots and once again, Rick Spielman is loading up on the draft capital. Take a bow, Minnesota. Well done.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Selections: CB-C.J. Henderson, EDGE-K’Lavon Chaisson
The Jacksonville Jaguars entered Round 1 of the NFL Draft with two picks, in part because of their Jalen Ramsey trade this past season. Jacksonville had plenty of holes to fill, specifically at cornerback (as both Ramsey and AJ Bouye are gone), defensive line (Calais Campbell), linebacker, pass rusher, offensive tackle, and wide receiver. Truthfully, you could argue Jacksonville needs help at basically every position, but I loved what they were able to do here. To start, the Jaguars have a total of 12 picks in this year’s draft, so even though they have a lot of needs, they didn’t have to trade down. Snagging C.J. Henderson at #9 was a fantastic find; according to Pro Football Focus, during Henderson’s career at Florida in single coverage, he was targeted on only 28.5% of the snaps and allowed just one touchdown. Not only that, but Henderson has shown lockdown ability throughout his collegiate career. Perhaps a great example of this is when Henderson went toe-to-toe with LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase earlier this season, the best wide receiver for the best passing offense in college football. Chase garnered just five targets in the game and reeled in two catches for 20 yards and a touchdown while being defended by Henderson, a pretty spectacular performance if we’re being honest. Henderson not only has the tools to be an elite man-to-man corner in the NFL, but he has the production to back it up. There is a knock on him that he’s not a great tackler or run defender, but considering his pure talent on the outside, Jacksonville should be very happy with this pick.
While C.J. Henderson arguably filled Jacksonville’s biggest need, taking K’Lavon Chaisson at #20 overall was tremendous value. I had Chaisson ranked 15th in my final Big Board and it was a bit surprising to see both him and CeeDee Lamb slide a bit. Chaisson is a gifted athlete with tremendous speed, bend, and agility and while he’s primarily a pass-rushing specialist, I think he has long-term potential to step out and cover tight ends and running backs with better technique. Chaisson is raw, but his sheer potential can place him among the best edge rushers in the NFL with proper coaching. Considering Jacksonville and Yannick Ngakoue are going to divorce at some point, the Jaguars were bound to have a hole on the edge, and Chaisson is not only a great value pick, but a fine fit as well. The idea of what Jacksonville is building is simple; bolster the front seven as much as possible. They invested a top-10 pick in Josh Allen last season who had 10.5 sacks as a rookie, a first-round pick in Taven Bryan the year before (although he has struggled), and now, a first-round pick in K’Lavon Chaisson. With the free agent addition of linebacker Joe Schobert as well, Jacksonville’s front seven has been fortified despite losing Calais Campbell and likely Ngakoue.
Miami Dolphins
Selections: QB-Tua Tagovailoa, OT-Austin Jackson, CB-Noah Igbinoghene
There was so much uncertainty entering the NFL Draft in general, yet there was one thing we all felt fairly confident about: the Miami Dolphins would dictate the first round. Chris Grier threw out so many smokescreens the past fourteen days that it was impossible to keep up with what Miami was thinking; there were points where it seemed Justin Herbert was the guy, then times when Miami was looking to trade up for a tackle, then rumors the Dolphins wanted to make a “godfather” offer to Cincinnati, and even whispers that Jordan Love was their preferred quarterback all along. Yet, when the smoke finally cleared it became clear what we had thought all along: Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. If Tua hadn’t suffered the dislocated hip against Mississippi State, I legitimately believe we would have been talking more about him possibly being the #1 overall draft pick. Consistently in Tua’s career he showed tremendous accuracy and arm strength, underrated mobility, and the panache necessary to be a franchise quarterback. We talk so much (and rightfully so) about Joe Burrow’s incredibly Heisman campaign this past year, but Tua has put up impressive numbers throughout his collegiate career. During his two full years as a starter at Alabama, Tagovailoa had 76 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions and completed 70% of his passes, truly elite marks. While a lot of people like to knock Tua since he played with a loaded receiving corps, that should not discredit what he was able to do. His pinpoint accuracy, terrific touch on deep balls, and underrated playmaking ability makes him a complete stud, and landing a franchise quarterback with the 5th overall pick without having to trade up makes this night a win for Miami.
To be honest, I didn’t love the rest of the Dolphins’ draft haul, but they are a winner solely because of Tua. I thought Austin Jackson was a sizeable reach at #18 but for a team desperate for offensive line help, specifically at tackle, I can stomach it. I thought better offensive tackles were still on the board and probably could have been there at #26, but the logic makes sense. When Tampa Bay drafted Jameis Winston in 2015, they took a left tackle in the second round (Donovan Smith) to ensure his protection. If you’re going to invest so heavily in a franchise quarterback, you might as well surround him with as much protection as possible. Even though the Dolphins had the most picks entering the day, they came out with an extra fourth-rounder after moving down four spots with the Green Bay Packers. Noah Igbinoghene is a talented corner and a trio of him, Byron Jones, and Xavien Howard is an electric secondary. With that being said, I would have much rather seen the Dolphins go with Xavier McKinney, Grant Delpit, Antoine Winfield Jr., or even Ashtyn Davis here. Still, even though Miami reached for two other players, classifying this as a disappointing night would be a laughable take.
Notable Surprises
CeeDee Lamb to Dallas at #17
I have to give the Dallas Cowboys a ton of credit here: they were another winner of the first night of the NFL Draft and in a big way. It took some guts to draft CeeDee Lamb here considering Dallas’ holes defensively, including the need for a corner, safety, and pass rusher. Xavier McKinney, Grant Delpit, K’Lavon Chaisson, and others were staring Dallas right in the face here, but they made the right pick. Lamb was #11 on my board and my top receiver in the class. He’s not only an explosive player, but he’s a physical receiver who can win 50/50 balls, operate in the slot or outside, and is an impact playmaker. According to Pro Football Focus, Lamb has had 17 40+ yard receptions since 2018 (most in the class), and on targets of 20+ yards at Oklahoma, he had 30 catches and 0 drops. Pro Football Focus went further and compared Lamb to Hopkins, noting that both are tremendous at winning 50/50 balls, being physical in their routes, and making defenders miss in space. The Cowboys got a complete steal at #17 even if it wasn’t the most obvious “need” they fulfilled. Personally, I was surprised CeeDee Lamb was still on the board this late. I surely thought that if he got past Denver that some team was going to trade up, whether it was Philadelphia, New Orleans, or even Green Bay. A lot of teams are going to regret passing on Lamb.
Jordan Love to Green Bay at #26
Perhaps the biggest head-scratcher of Round 1 was the Green Bay Packers not only taking a quarterback, but trading up for one. To be honest, I’m a huge Jordan Love fan and with the proper coaching, he can be a superstar. He has the arm strength and raw talent you look for and had a sensational season at Utah State in 2018, throwing 32 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions while completing 64.0% of his passes. However, Love took a massive step backwards this season, throwing 20 touchdowns to 17 interceptions while completing 61.9% of his passes. Love’s decision-making needs work; he’s a typical case of a guy who can make any throw on the field, but that doesn’t mean he always should be aiming for that. However, it is also important to note that Love witnessed an entire coaching staff change between his sophomore and junior season, as his previous coaching staff left for Texas Tech. Adjusting to a new staff makes me a bit more lenient to critiquing his campaign, especially since proper coaching is the key to unlocking his limitless potential.
While Love the player is fantastic, I cannot defend Green Bay’s methodology here. The Packers vastly overachieved last season; according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics, they estimated the Packers should have won 10 games last year, not the 13 they actually won. Not only that, but 8 of Green Bay’s 13 wins were decided by one possession and the winning percentages of their opponents was a measly 44.9%. Take out Green Bay’s games against Kansas City and San Francisco and their opponents’ winning percentage was just 40.2%. Green Bay was certainly an overachiever last season and they entered the NFL Draft with plenty of needs. They desperately needed more help at the skill positions for Aaron Rodgers, as a trio of Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is simply not good enough. Wide receiver and tight end were arguably the team’s two biggest needs, but they could also use linebacking help (Blake Martinez, the team’s leading tackler, left in free agency) and more punch on the defensive line. After all, Green Bay’s rushing defense ranked 23rd in the NFL last season and they play in a conference where Minnesota (4th in rushing play percentage), San Francisco (2nd in rushing play percentage), and Seattle (6th in rushing play percentage) are some of their biggest threats. It is also important to note Green Bay’s title window is narrowing quickly under Aaron Rodgers, who is no longer as physically gifted as he was 2-3 years ago. Drafting a wide receiver like Denzel Mims, K.J. Hamler, Tee Higgins, or Laviska Shenault Jr. would’ve made so much sense. Instead, they trade up to draft a quarterback who won’t see the field for likely two years at minimum. The pick didn’t make sense, but compounding it by giving up a fourth round pick to make it happen makes it truly a head-scratching move. The Packers refuse to draft skill players high and frankly, it does not make a lot of sense. I get that it is a deep draft class, but this selection does not match their current timeline at all and fails to properly set Green Bay up to take advantage of Rodgers’ final few prime seasons.
Jalen Reagor to Philadelphia at #21
Although I had Jalen Reagor #42 on my Big Board, I don’t think this was a horrible pick by the Eagles here. Reagor is an incredibly explosive player even if his forty-yard dash time at the NFL Combine disappointed a bit (he released a killer Pro Day video which may have helped his stock). However, I list this pick as a surprise because I’m not sure why the Eagles took Reagor over Justin Jefferson. Jefferson is a superior route runner and pass catcher and is simply the better prospect with arguably a higher ceiling as well; why pass over him for Reagor? Look, I think Reagor is a solid player, but I do have some concerns surrounding his NFL outlook. TCU’s passing offense was poor during Reagor’s final two seasons which will naturally deflate his stats, but Reagor’s biggest impact at TCU came in the return game, where he was a dynamic punt returner. His explosion and ability to make guys miss in space is tremendous, but as for a pure wide receiver, I don’t think he was the best player to take. Obviously his skillset was underutilized at TCU (according to Pro Football Focus, 61% of Reagor’s targets since 2018 were catchable, which was the third lowest in the draft class), but I’m not sold on him being the superior player or fit to Justin Jefferson.
Javon Kinlaw to San Francisco at #14
To be blunt, I was not expecting Javon Kinlaw to be a San Francisco 49er, yet here we are. There’s no denying the physical upside Kinlaw possesses and considering San Francisco’s recent success in developing their defensive line, you have to like his outlook with Robert Saleh and the 49ers. However, the one thing I cannot comprehend is the praise San Francisco has received for trading DeForest Buckner for the 13th overall pick, acquiring an extra fourth-round pick to move down one slot with Tampa Bay (they used that pick to move up and draft Brandon Aiyuk), and taking Buckner’s replacement. In principal, this is similar to what Minnesota did with Stefon Diggs/Justin Jefferson, but in reality, it’s vastly different. Over the past two seasons, Buckner has totaled 19.5 sacks, and the only defensive tackle with more was Aaron Donald. Buckner is a dominant force and a major reason why San Francisco’s defense took a massive step forwards, ranking 2nd in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders.
I understand why San Francisco traded Buckner; with impending deals nearing for George Kittle, Richard Sherman, and others, it was going to be too difficult to re-sign Buckner to a massive deal and subsequently keep Sherman and Kittle. A major reason why they’re in this predicament is because Jimmy Garoppolo is overpaid and below the “Kirk Cousins Line”, although they can move on from his contract easily next summer. Buckner signed a 4 year, $84M deal with the Colts after the trade, but only $44.378M was guaranteed and the Colts can move on after the 2022 season without a penalty. Buckner has the second-highest base salary among defensive tackles this season, but is in the same ballpark salary wise as Fletcher Cox, Geno Atkins, Sheldon Richardson, and Jurell Casey. Not only that, but the San Francisco 49ers opted to retain Arik Armstead over DeForest Buckner, giving Armstead a 5 year, $85 million deal with $40M guaranteed. That’s a very similar contract all things considered, yet Armstead has only tallied 13 sacks the past two seasons and just broke out this past year. Here’s a comparison between Armstead and Buckner the past three seasons:
| 49ers D-Line Stats (2017-2019) | Sacks | QB Hits | TFLs | AAV Contract (new deal) |
| DeForest Buckner | 22.5 | 56 | 31 | $21M |
| Arik Armstead | 14.5 | 33 | 11 | $17M |
To be blunt, the production between the two isn’t very close, and that’s before we mention how much more effective Buckner is at disrupting the quarterback’s line of vision, registering 10 pass deflections over that time span as well. Since Armstead just had a career-year, it was likely the 49ers could have received solid compensation for him as well, which makes this notion that San Francisco was forced to trade Buckner and could’ve only received good compensation for him simply false. I don’t agree with San Francisco’s decision to choose Arik Armstead over DeForest Buckner, especially when Armstead likely could’ve netted the Niners a Day 2 pick.
I get the logic that people are commending San Francisco for: they essentially value Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead (who combine for a salary range similar to Buckner’s alone) more than DeForest Buckner. The problem I have with this is the 49ers could have kept DeForest Buckner, traded Armstead for a second round pick (presumably to Indianapolis) and drafted a defensive tackle there instead. Maybe it works out and considering San Francisco’s success in developing defensive linemen, there’s a good chance it does. I personally don’t think the 49ers should be commended as much as they are by trading away their top defensive player to save cap space when they should be competing for a Super Bowl.
Things to Watch For: Day 2
When Does the Run on Running Backs Start?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire snuck into Round 1 last night as the only running back to be selected and it was a home-run pick for the Kansas City Chiefs. CEH was, in my opinion, a first-round talent, but his pass catching skillset meshes perfectly with Patrick Mahomes and KC. It might’ve been a surprise that CEH went first among running backs, but considering he’s the most involved in the passing game, I think it aligns more with the modern-NFL and emphasis on throwing the ball, which is the more efficient form of offense. Entering Day 2, it’ll be interesting to see when guys like D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, Antonio Gibson, Zack Moss, and maybe Eno Benjamin come off the board. The Dolphins have been heavily connected to a running back and pick at 39, but considering all of the top safeties have fallen out of Round 1, they might be a candidate to take Grant Delpit or Xavier McKinney if they remain. Jacksonville (42), Tampa Bay (45), Pittsburgh (49), Los Angeles (52), Buffalo (54), Baltimore (55/60), and Miami at 56 are all candidates to take a back and I personally think we’ll see Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, and Akers all come off the board in the second round.
How Aggressive Do Teams Get?
Considering the virtual component of the NFL Draft, I wasn’t terribly surprised by the relative inactivity we saw on the trade market in the first round. However, I do expect that to change substantially, starting tonight. With safeties falling out of the first round, I wouldn’t be surprised for a team like Cleveland, Jacksonville, or Dallas to get aggressive and move up to get one of the players, whether it is Xavier McKinney, Delpit, or even Antoine Winfield Jr. out of Minnesota. In addition, I wonder if a team looking for a physical, red-zone presence will aim for Denzel Mims or Tee Higgins, two players who received some first round buzz (particularly Mims). The New York Jets sitting at #48 could be a prime team to monitor in getting aggressive for a receiver. Considering how the draft board shook out, I think teams in need of a running back, defensive lineman, or secondary help will be among the most aggressive to kick off the day. With a plethora of talent at each position remaining, expect some action throughout the day.
Final Note: Seattle Seahawks
It’s no secret that I greatly admire John Schneider and how he consistently aces the NFL Draft, yet the Seahawks received a ton of heat for drafting linebacker Jordyn Brooks out of Texas Tech with the 27th overall pick last night. It was the first time since 2011 the Seahawks have not traded out or down in the first round, although it was reported the Seahawks had a deal that ended up falling apart. Brooks, who’s more of a run-stuffing linebacker who hasn’t yet developed enough coverage skills, doesn’t fill a pressing need for the Seahawks, who still have K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner. However, I want to note a few things with this pick. First, every single season the Seahawks go way off the consensus board to take a player and every year they get laughed at for it. Bruce Irvin was deemed a major reach when they took him in the first round in 2012. Irvin followed that up by accumulating 37 sacks over his first six seasons to go along with 14 forced fumbles despite playing in a linebacking role. The Seahawks got mocked for taking Russell Wilson in the third round, a pick that I would say worked out pretty good for them. The Seahawks have taken Rashaad Penny and L.J. Collier the past two seasons in the first round, and while Penny hasn’t been able to stay healthy, he’s averaged 5.3 YPC for his career and 5.7 YPC last season, which would’ve ranked #1 among all running backs if he hit the thresholds. Collier hasn’t done anything for the Seahawks yet and had a poor rookie season, but I’m just saying, the Seahawks rarely miss. I just don’t get why teams keep laughing at the Seahawks; they’ve been near the bottom of free agency expenditure every year since 2013 and have one of the highest winning percentages of the past decade. Maybe Jordyn Brooks was a reach, but I’d bet heavily on that pick working out fairly nicely for Seattle.
The Chirp 