When the 2019-20 NBA season started, there were a few things we knew for certain. First, we knew the battle for Los Angeles was on, as the Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers rapidly made themselves into arguably the title favorites entering the year. With Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George all relocating to Southern California, we knew there’d finally be showtime in Hollywood again. So far, they’ve delivered. We knew the Milwaukee Bucks would sustain a high level of play and that the reigning MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, would continue to improve. Antetokounmpo has been better this season than last, yet it’s crazy to think he might not repeat as MVP, so long as James Harden is putting up historic scoring numbers. You have to throw LeBron James in the MVP mix as well and although he missed a few games, Luka Doncic deserves to be in the conversation as well.
Yet, despite some of these certainties we had entering the season, like all sports, we’ve had plenty of surprises. I don’t think anyone had the Toronto Raptors fading into the land of irrelevance after losing Kawhi Leonard in free agency, but their start to the season despite battling a rash of injuries has been incredibly impressive. The Indiana Pacers, despite not having Victor Oladipo and working in practically an entire new roster, have not only stayed afloat in the East, but they’ve thrived. The Miami Heat, who’ve compiled a roster of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and a bunch of homegrown players completely exceeding expectations, are starting to get recognition as serious title contenders. And finally, the Dallas Mavericks, a team many thought would compete for the 7th or 8th seed in the West, have been hovering around a top-4 seed for much of the season, led by Luka Doncic who has turned into a bonafide superstar and top-10 player in the NBA this season.
What Teams Are Real Contenders?
While it is still early in the NBA season (relatively speaking), it’s never too early to start separating teams into tiers, specifically, into “contenders” and “pretenders”. There are some teams that are obvious contenders: the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers are both real contenders, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are probably in that group of obvious contenders as well. After the obvious contenders, there’s another tier I list as legitimate contenders, which includes the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Boston Celtics, and Miami Heat, and then a final tier of contenders which includes “possible contenders”, like the Dallas Mavericks, Utah Jazz, Toronto Raptors, and Indiana Pacers.
I said it in the pre-season and I’ll reiterate it again here: I’m not sure any team is built like the Los Angeles Clippers. While I did pick the Denver Nuggets to win the NBA Finals in the pre-season, I still have doubts as to whether they can truly beat the Clippers in a best-of-seven series. Denver has the requisite depth, particularly on the wing, to match up well with Los Angeles and Nikola Jokic could be a problem for them, but it’s just so hard to beat L.A. come postseason time when they can put three top-10 defenders on the court together. The Clippers have the perfect blend of depth, star power, perimeter shooting, and glue guys and it makes them very, very difficult to consistently beat. In my opinion, if there’s a clear-cut favorite in the league this year, it’s obviously the Clippers. I think the Milwaukee Bucks are the favorite in the East, but I’m not sold on them making it to the NBA Finals. If they avoid the 76ers in the postseason then they have a great chance, but Philadelphia’s length could be a major problem for Milwaukee’s offense. The 76ers were constructed to beat Milwaukee and while I’m not going to overreact to their dominance on Christmas Day, their ability to throw 2-3 defenders at Giannis Antetokounmpo (Joel Embiid, Al Horford, and Ben Simmons), is enough to make me concerned about Milwaukee. I’m standing by my pick of the Boston Celtics making the NBA Finals, but they do need a more versatile big man outside of Daniel Theis. Theis is really underrated, but is he capable of anchoring a defense? No, and neither is Robert Williams, Grant Williams, and certainly not Enes Kanter. If the Celtics can acquire a player like Dewayne Dedmon, Tristan Thompson, or Derrick Favors (Favors would be perfect), then I think there’s a legitimate case to be made that Boston can win the NBA Finals.
As for some of the other contenders mentioned, I have some serious doubts about them all. The Los Angeles Lakers are so reliant on LeBron James to initiate offense and they desperately need a third scorer to step up. Los Angeles has hoped Kyle Kuzma can be that guy, but Kuzma has battled injuries all year and hasn’t been incredibly consistent either. I would never bet against LeBron James in the postseason, but if he has to go up against Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, I just might. The Denver Nuggets are very talented and deep, but their offense is way too inconsistent as a whole. The Nuggets really need somebody to emerge as a go-to scoring option, as Jamal Murray simply isn’t that type of player on a nightly basis and neither is Nikola Jokic, who’s early-season struggles were well-documented. I’m not sure Denver has the necessary offensive firepower to get by the Los Angeles Clippers, but if they avoid them, then they have a shot. I’m personally not on the Houston Rockets’ bandwagon at all. I’m a noted critic of James Harden and while I’ll admit he’s a historically great offensive player, I’ll also say I don’t think you can win a title with one guy being responsible for so much of the team’s offensive output. Teams have started to trap Harden at the half-court line this season and when he gives up the ball, he looks thoroughly disinterested and completely disengages from the game. Until Houston builds a proper roster around him, which includes valuing a deep bench and finding an efficient guard alongside him, I think the Rockets will continue to fizzle in May. While I am a Dallas Mavericks fan myself, I think they’re a team that’s, at minimum, one year away. While Dallas has an impressive resume of victories, the majority of their roster has no playoff experience and they have weaknesses that can be exploited by either the Clippers, Lakers, or Nuggets. Lastly, the Utah Jazz are clearly still figuring some things out with their own roster, but I still have doubts about their title potential. I didn’t think Utah was a true title contender after their off-season moves, primarily because they drastically shifted their identity and, in my opinion, overreacted a bit towards their pitiful postseason shooting. The Jazz are actually the top 3-PT shooting team in the league now, but their depth isn’t nearly as good and Rudy Gobert has struggled in the postseason when forced away from the rim. If Utah could make another move or two at the deadline, my opinion on them might change, but as of now, I don’t see them as a real title threat.
As for some Eastern Conference contenders, I’m standing strong on my Philadelphia 76ers take: I don’t think this team can win a title with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. The 76ers have an incredible amount of length and defensive versatility on the roster, but they are horrible at spacing the floor. Their Christmas Day performance was not the norm from this team and multiple opponents have had incredibly success by running zone against the Sixers simply they cannot consistently shoot the ball from deep. People quickly forget how awful Ben Simmons has been in the Playoffs, where teams are easily able to scheme against him and make better adjustments then they can in the regular season. Now, the 76ers have nobody outside Simmons who can consistently initiate the offense in the half-court and unless Philadelphia can add a ton of shooting, I just can’t see them being effective enough on offense to win a championship. I touched on the Celtics already, but I really think you’d be foolish to write off a team that’s led by Brad Stevens. Stevens has had incredible playoff success and is still a top-3 coach in the NBA, but now that he has a more seasoned roster without dysfunction and no LeBron James to worry about, is there a team Boston can’t beat? I don’t think so and they’re a serious dark-horse to win the title. I don’t hate even placing a future on them to win the title at their current odds (+2500).
The Miami Heat are an intriguing team, but I think they’re a year away from being a serious title contender. Bam Adebayo is quickly developing into a star, but I’m not sold on Miami being able to beat two of Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Toronto, Boston, and Indiana to make the NBA Finals. They’ll eventually get another bonafide star to pair with Butler and Adebayo and be a serious threat, but this isn’t the year. Toronto has been decimated by injuries this year, but when Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, and Norman Powell return, the Raptors should pick it up again. Toronto has been terrific despite the lengthy injury report and it’s allowed them to develop a deep bench filled with overachieving role players like Terrence Davis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Chris Boucher. Lastly, the Indiana Pacers are perennially overlooked despite their incredibly impressive start. In my opinion, Nate McMillan should be Coach of the Year, primarily because he’s led the Pacers to a 22-13 record with almost an entirely new roster, and Victor Oladipo hasn’t played a minute yet. Out of players on Indiana to average 20+ MPG this season, only four were on the Pacers last season, and two of them (Aaron Holiday and Doug McDermott), weren’t impact players. McMillan has been insanely successful despite retooling on the fly and he deserves a lot of credit. I’m still not sold on Indiana’s ceiling, but their personnel decisions this summer certainly increased it. If Victor Oladipo can be close to 100% come postseason time, I wouldn’t want to face the Pacers.
Who Have Been Some Disappointing Teams?
I’m not sure many people are aware of this, but currently, there are only 14 teams that currently have a .500 record or better. That’s pretty wild, especially since the Western Conference consistently has 42 or 43-win teams miss the postseason. The simple fact is that the disparity between the top and “middle, bottom-tier” of the league is as wide as possible, as the NBA really lacks a strong middle class this season. Teams like the Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs have been the definition of mediocrity this season, the Portland Trail Blazers have been a massive disappointment (in large part because they replaced a lot of their key role players with inferior players), the New Orleans Pelicans have struggled to gain any traction, and Sacramento and Minnesota have both failed to take a step forwards. Golden State got bit hard by the injury bug, but all of a sudden, a Western Conference that was expected to have 12-13 teams competing for eight playoff spots all of a sudden finds themselves lacking eight teams with a .500 record.
In my opinion, I’m not sure there’s been a more disappointing team than the Portland Trail Blazers. Although Portland lost Seth Curry and Enes Kanter this summer, they still started the year with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum fully healthy, and they’ve been so for the majority of the year. Hassan Whiteside has played a key role and Carmelo Anthony has been really solid as well, yet Portland consistently disappoints, highlighted by an embarrassing 20-point loss to the New York Knicks. This is a pretty drastic change from the Blazers, as we last saw them battling tooth-and-nail with the Golden State Warriors for a trip to the NBA Finals. Personally, I’m not quite sure where Portland goes. On the one hand, they have the necessary assets to make a splashy move at the deadline, whether it’s for Kevin Love, Marcus Morris, or Robert Covington, but this team isn’t built simply to sneak into the postseason. The Blazers have a few key questions to answer between now and February. Does Jusuf Nurkíc make them a 5-6 win better team than their current pace? Is Portland’s lack of current bench depth the biggest reason for their record? Answering those questions correctly could determine Portland’s season outlook.
Another team that’s been incredibly disappointing has been the Atlanta Hawks, a team who has the worst record in the NBA right now. Lots of Trae Young fans clamored for him to be Rookie of the Year last season (even though that was laughable) and said he was just as good as Luka Doncic. Well, that’s clearly not true. Hawks’ fans will be quick to say that John Collins’ suspension derailed the team, but is one player who’s never been an All-Star that important to your roster that playing without him leads to a pitiful record and multiple embarrassing losses? If it does, then that’s a serious team-building issue. Trae Young’s current ankle injury is really unfortunate and while I do believe he’s a special player, I also think he has to find ways to win games. Atlanta’s offensive efficiency is literally the worst in the league and in some ways, that has to directly reflect Young and Atlanta’s system. The Hawks are one team I’ll be keeping a keen eye on over the next several months for multiple reasons. To start, we had a report in 2019 that the Hawks told Trae Young they’ll get him some help and will be aggressive in doing so. Atlanta is on track to have a very high draft pick this summer and could have enough cap space for two max salary slots, although there aren’t many free agents who are worthy of such a distinction. Would Atlanta be interested in signing Andre Drummond and pursuing Bradley Beal on the trade market? They’d certainly have the assets to acquire Beal, as a package surrounding their top-3 draft pick, Kevin Huerter, and maybe Cam Reddish would likely do the trick. Or, the Hawks could take the safer route, which would probably be to continue to build their roster organically. I’ve been on the record that Beal would be a perfect fit in Atlanta, but if he weren’t available, I don’t think the Hawks have to panic. Utilizing a high draft pick to find another star alongside Trae Young is an ideal situation as well. The horrific performance from Atlanta is a cause for concern, but continuing to build this roster the right way and not jumping to hasty, irresponsible decisions is imperative if the Hawks hope to improve.
The final disappointing team I want to highlight is the Detroit Pistons, who have been put in a really tough position this season. Blake Griffin played at an MVP-level last season, but battled a knee injury at the end of the season, had off-season surgery, and just hasn’t looked right this season. In addition to Griffin’s injury, Reggie Jackson, who quietly had a really solid season last year, has only played in two games. The Pistons have been destroyed by injuries nearly as much as any team and it’s led to them hitting a cross-roads. Entering the year, I was very high on the Pistons. Dwayne Casey is a tremendous coach, they were slowly building a young nucleus that lacked a high ceiling, but was compiled of multiple, solid rotational pieces that Casey could develop, and with a superstar in Blake Griffin, I thought Detroit could surprise some people. Now, it’s decision time for Detroit. Andre Drummond is due to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and as of now, I’m not sure how Detroit can justify bringing him back. The Pistons haven’t won a single playoff series with him (I’m not sure they’ve won a single playoff game, to be honest), and having so much money tied up between Drummond and Griffin isn’t a recipe for success. I’d think the Pistons would shop Drummond around the deadline and considering how wide-open the league is this year, he should garner some serious interest. Boston is a team that makes a lot of sense; they have three first-round picks to trade and no center who can body up with Joel Embiid or Marc Gasol down low. No teams love the idea of blowing it up, sacrificing a season, and starting over, but in Detroit’s case, that might be the best option.
What Are Some Futures to Consider?
The last section we want to highlight is some betting advice, something The Chirp is aiming to really prioritize with our content. Here’s some of our favorite NBA bets to take:
Eastern Conference Winner: Boston Celtics (+600)
I’ve hyped up the Boston Celtics a lot in this article and I’ll continue to do so until they get some proper respect. Right now, I’m not sure how many teams in the Eastern Conference are as well-equipped for the postseason as the Boston Celtics. If they still had Al Horford, I would consider them the clear favorite. It’s a little murkier without a defensive lynchpin on the roster, but Brad Stevens’ schemes and coaching style has kept Boston a top-5 defensive team. I think Boston has a coaching advantage nearly every time they step on the floor (Nick Nurse and Erik Spoelstra are phenomenal coaches in their own rights, although I’d argue Stevens is a touch better) and arguably have the top home-court advantage in the NBA as well. Not only that, but Boston’s strong perimeter game causes a mismatch for a lot of the Eastern Conference elite which have prioritized frontcourt depth. Do Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Miami, Toronto, and Indiana all have the necessary defenders to guard Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward, while also having the subsequent offensive firepower to overcome Boston’s elite defense? I’m not sold. The Celtics consistently have an elite 3-PT defense which should neutralize Milwaukee, they’ve had tremendous success defending Philadelphia in past years (although it will be complicated without Al Horford), they match up well with Miami and Indiana, and they have experience against Toronto. I’m still a believer that the Celtics will make a move, either for Derrick Favors, Andre Drummond, or maybe Tristan Thompson, and that move would make them capable of matching up with Philadelphia as well. I’m a big believer in this Celtics team and they’re a great bet to take right now.
#1 Overall Pick: LaMelo Ball (+350)
This is one of my favorite under-the-radar bets right now, primarily because there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the top pick. In fact, there’s so much uncertainty surrounding the top prospects that LaMelo Ball, despite playing professionally in Australia, might be the most certain of the elite players. Personally, I think Ball is the best prospect in the class, but ultimately, he’s likely competing against Georgia guard Anthony Edwards, center James Wiseman, and possibly North Carolina guard Cole Anthony. However, Wiseman has left Memphis surrounding an eligibility issue and will be a question mark during the evaluation process, Anthony has been sidelined with a knee injury and was likely a tier behind, while Edwards overall, has been a bit inconsistent. Ball has been terrific playing professionally and has even gotten some Luka Doncic comparisons; considering how dominant Luka has been this year, a lot of NBA GM’s might take a shot on hoping on the international bandwagon, simply because front office executives follow existing trends. I think Ball’s stock will only increase as the season goes on, making it a prime opportunity to take advantage of solid odds right now.
The Chirp 